Is it even possible for a 10th-last team to win the lottery? I thought the highest to ever win the lottery was 8th,
PS. hurrah first post! been lurking around the jets forum since we got our team back/
Welcome!!
To answer your question, yes it is. Here is how the odds broke down last year...
Quote:
Teams can only move up 4 slots maximum (ie. only the top 5 teams have a shot at winning the lottery) and drop no more than 1 spot in the order. So whoever finishes last overall in the regulatr season standings has a 48.2% off winning the draft lottery.
Odds of Winning the 1st Overall Pick
48.2% - Edmonton Oilers
18.8% - Colorado Avalanche
14.2% - Florida Panthers
10.7% - New York Islanders
8.1% - Ottawa Senators
The 2010 NHL Draft Lottery Odds are listed below Final Standings
25.0% - Edmonton Oilers (30)
18.8% - Colorado Avalanche (29)
14.2% - Florida Panthers (28)
10.7% - New York Islanders (27)
8.1% - Ottawa Senators (26)
6.2% - Atlanta Thrashers (25)
4.7% - Columbus Blue Jackets (24)
3.6% - New Jersey Devils (23)
2.7% - Boston Bruins (From Toronto) (22)
2.1% - Minnesota Wild (21)
1.5% - St. Louis Blues (20)
1.1% - Carolina Hurricanes (19)
0.8% - Calgary Flames (18)
0.5% - Dallas Stars (17)
You'll notice that the percentages are sorted into reverse order of the bottom 14 teams (playoff-less teams). It's possible for the 14th last team to win, but they would only move up to 10 (and it's only .5% chance, so very unlikely).
Here's the history
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Results of Previous Draft Drawings
Year
Selected
Effect On Draft Order Player Selected
1995 Los Angeles Moved from 7th to 3rd D Aki Berg
1996 Ottawa Retained 1st selection D Chris Phillips
1997 Boston Retained 1st selection C Joe Thornton
1998 Tampa Bay Moved from 3rd to 1st via trades C Vincent Lecavalier
1999 Chicago Moved from 8th to 4th RW Pavel Brendl *
2000 NY Islanders Moved from 5th to 1st G Rick DiPietro
2001 Atlanta Moved from 3rd to 1st LW Ilya Kovalchuk
2002 Florida Moved from 3rd to 1st LW Rick Nash **
2003 Florida Moved from 4th to 1st G Marc-Andre Fleury ***
2004 Washington Moved from 3rd to 1st LW Alex Ovechkin
2005 Pittsburgh n/a C Sidney Crosby
2006 St. Louis Retained 1st selection D Erik Johnson
2007 Chicago Moved from 5th to 1st RW Patrick Kane
2008 Tampa Bay Retained 1st selection C Steven Stamkos
2009 NY Islanders Retained 1st selection C John Tavares
2010 Edmonton Retained 1st selection LW Taylor Hall
* NY Rangers obtained Chicago's pick in a trade (via Vancouver and Tampa Bay). The Rangers selected RW Pavel Brendl fourth overall.
** Columbus obtained Florida's pick in a trade. The Blue Jackets selected LW Rick Nash first overall
.
*** Pittsburgh obtained Florida's pick in a trade. The Penguins selected G Marc-Andre Fleury first overall.
So you are right that the highest ever to move up was 8th, but it technically CAN happen, just not very likely (8.7% combined for the 9-14th last teams)
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2012 STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS LA KINGS!!! GO JETS GO!
Plays centre, leds the Belleville Bulls in scoring in the regular season (68pts in 68 games), just turned 18 and is 6'2 and 212lbs already. Sounds like his skating is his one weakness.
There's a pretty good write up on Gaunce and the top 60 mid term ranked players for the draft at thescoutingreport.org
As far as Gaunce's skating is concerned, it could stand to improve, but it's not at all that bad. A lot of the same concerns were made about Ryan O'Reilly's skating in his draft year. He is a player who competes hard and his offensive abilities make him tough to contain. Brings with him the leadership intangibles that make him a complete player. Reminds me a lot of Dave Bolland. Also read that Shanahan was his idol growing up.
Anybody know how far we can move up in the lottery. Is it two places? Up or down?
We`re solidly in 10th (last) right now, but there`s four teams just 3pts back. IF Rangers and Sens take the points this week, I can see us finishing in the 6-spot.
The way I see it right now we are selecting 10th but the standings are like so ....
Jets 78 75gp
TBay 75 74 gp
Ana 75 75 gp (game in progress)
Car 75 76 gp
Tor 75 76gp
NYI 73 75 gp
We still play Tampa Bay twice, Carolina once and the Islanders once and only one of those games are at home (Tampa Bay). Quite conceivably that could be 8 points lost to teams chasing us in the standings. Of course that is worst case scenario for playoff hopes or best case for draft selection.
The other 3 games are Ottawa, NYR and Florida. All teams that the Jets have either struggled with or should beat the Jets.
Essentially we could be sitting in the 5 - 7 slot when all is said and done. Add in a little lottery magic and our pick could be top 3
The way I see it right now we are selecting 10th but the standings are like so ....
Jets 78 75gp
TBay 75 74 gp
Ana 75 75 gp (game in progress)
Car 75 76 gp
Tor 75 76gp
NYI 73 75 gp
We still play Tampa Bay twice, Carolina once and the Islanders once and only one of those games are at home (Tampa Bay). Quite conceivably that could be 8 points lost to teams chasing us in the standings. Of course that is worst case scenario for playoff hopes or best case for draft selection.
The other 3 games are Ottawa, NYR and Florida. All teams that the Jets have either struggled with or should beat the Jets.
Essentially we could be sitting in the 5 - 7 slot when all is said and done. Add in a little lottery magic and our pick could be top 3
Yeah my guess is 10th pick. Come draft day it would be nice to pick a little higher, but I don't this team will tank. I expect them to be approx 500 over the last couple of weeks.
Couple new mock drafts went up on nhl.com the other day, one from an eastern scout and the other from a western scout.
Couple things interesting to me:
Eastern has us taking Derrick Pouliot with Gaunce, Ceci, and Reinhart as bigger names still on the board. Didn't know much about Pouliot but he looks intruiging, good sized lefty who put up a lot of points this season.
Western has us taking Cody Ceci while Faksa, Gaunce, and Galchenyuk (19th!) are still available. I'd have to think if we pick at 10 and he's there Galchenyuk has too much upside to pass on.
I thought those two drafts were interesting. Really don't see how Galchenyuk drops that far on the one, and don't see us taking Pouliot that high but you never know.
At this point I see us anywhere from 6 to 10. That's barring any miracle lotto win.
For arguments sake, I would think that Yakupov, Grigerenko, Murray, Dumba, and one of Forsberg/Galchenyuk are off the table.
Between 6 and 10 I think we are looking at one of Forsberg/Galchenyuk, Trouba, Reinhart, Reilly, Faska. (Not necessarily in that order).
I thought those two drafts were interesting. Really don't see how Galchenyuk drops that far on the one, and don't see us taking Pouliot that high but you never know.
At this point I see us anywhere from 6 to 10. That's barring any miracle lotto win.
For arguments sake, I would think that Yakupov, Grigerenko, Murray, Dumba, and one of Forsberg/Galchenyuk are off the table.
Between 6 and 10 I think we are looking at one of Forsberg/Galchenyuk, Trouba, Reinhart, Reilly, Faska. (Not necessarily in that order).
Thoughts?
I'd be happy with any of those, at this point my main feeling is that other than the top 2 or maybe 3 there isn't a lot of separation among the next 10 or so prospects. As long as we get one of the guys out of that second level I'll be pretty pleased.
Agreed. I don't see a D man as a top priority unless we trade one away. A top 6 forward is much more of a need, IMO.
That's not why it's interesting at all though. It has nothing to do with our current roster but our prospect pool. We have a few guys that are developing and on the upswing on D like Kulda, Postma, and Redmond. Then there are all of the other young defensemen we have and the two that have been recently signed in O'Neil and Melchori.
That's not why it's interesting at all though. It has nothing to do with our current roster but our prospect pool. We have a few guys that are developing and on the upswing on D like Kulda, Postma, and Redmond. Then there are all of the other young defensemen we have and the two that have been recently signed in O'Neil and Melchori.
Quality over quantity, in my opinion. What we've got in our system rounds out to quantity and little in terms of legitimate quality.
I think if we take a defenseman in the 6-10 spot, it gives us a quality defensive prospect, something this organization doesn't have.
Quality over quantity, in my opinion. What we've got in our system rounds out to quantity and little in terms of legitimate quality.
I think if we take a defenseman in the 6-10 spot, it gives us a quality defensive prospect, something this organization doesn't have.
But do you not think our forward prospects group is much weaker then our D? Two of those guys are borderline NHL ready and have seen NHL time in the past. The other three I believe are already signed. I'm just not sure about us taking a defenseman when we are weak at forward throughout the system outside of Scheifele.
But of course come draft time at 8-10 taking BPA is usually the way to go.
Agreed. I don't see a D man as a top priority unless we trade one away. A top 6 forward is much more of a need, IMO.
Smart NHL teams don't draft for need in the early rounds. Smarter teams don't draft for need in the top 10 of any draft. Needs now aren't necessarily needs later. In the top 10 you draft BPA. Whoever the management team decides is BPA where we're slotted is picked. I just don't understand why some fans think the draft is about the now and less about the future.
Yakupov - RW top line player. No chance jets get him
Grigorenko - top line center in the future, no way jets get him without trading significant assests to trade up
Ryan Murray - Too good to pass up. Would round out our top four with
Enstrom- Buff
Murray - Bogo
Which is pretty damn good. That said I don't see Oilers/Isles passing this guy.
Forsberg - RW that looks to be highly skilled. Jets have glaring holes at RW. If avaliable I don't see use passing, but this would take a lotto win
Galchenyuk - Could be a #1 center, but injury worries me. I'd rather have the safe pick with Forsberg, but if he's avaliable take him. Also unless we win the lottery Toronto will take this kid if avaliable.
Now were at 6 where I think we have a chance.
Trouba/Dumba - I could see us taking a Dman to round out our top 4
Faksa - I see him as best a #2 center, which we don't need as we have Little, a awesome #2 center, and Scheif who'll be a #1 or #2 center. Still good two way player.
Reinhart - Another good dman to line out top 4
Reilly - See Reinhart
Collberg - A good RW prospect to address the need for a top 6 right wing. I see the need for a RW to oversee the fact that Gaunce may be a little bit of a better player.
Gaunce - Got potential, but I'd rather take one of the dman and build from the backend like Nashville is doing.
Quality over quantity, in my opinion. What we've got in our system rounds out to quantity and little in terms of legitimate quality.
I think if we take a defenseman in the 6-10 spot, it gives us a quality defensive prospect, something this organization doesn't have.
I agree with this, there doesn't look to be all that much in the way of high quality at the forward position either, but there's a definite lack of anything blue chippish on defense.
Really as in all cases they should just be looking to draft who ever they think will have the most impact down the road regardless of position.
But do you not think our forward prospects group is much weaker then our D? Two of those guys are borderline NHL ready and have seen NHL time in the past. The other three I believe are already signed. I'm just not sure about us taking a defenseman when we are weak at forward throughout the system outside of Scheifele.
But of course come draft time at 8-10 taking BPA is usually the way to go.
You got it right Duke.
It's all about asset management. Taking BPA over need gives us options to trade when necessary. Of course BPA and need can overlap and that's a good thing.
But do you not think our forward prospects group is much weaker then our D? Two of those guys are borderline NHL ready and have seen NHL time in the past. The other three I believe are already signed. I'm just not sure about us taking a defenseman when we are weak at forward throughout the system outside of Scheifele.
But of course come draft time at 8-10 taking BPA is usually the way to go.
It's really hard to say, I think. At forward leading the way we've got Scheifele (top 2 center), Cormier (bottom 6 forward), Klingberg (top 9 forward), Telegin (top 9 forward) that pretty well top the list. On defence we've got Postma, Kulda, Redmond, Melchiori, Yuen, who I think are all likely to be bottom pairing NHL'ers *if* they even make it. I personally think most of these guys are destined to be AHL'ers. Postma stands a good chance at the NHL given his offensive game. The rest are big question marks for me.
I'd say most of our defensive prospects will turn out to be nothing more than AHL'ers, while Scheifele, Cormier, Klingberg, Telegin stand a pretty good shot at finding roles in the NHL, I think.
I guess if I had to say, I would say that our forward depth is stronger than our defensive depth in the prospect cupboard. I think Scheifele, Cormier, Klingberg, Telegin, etc. top what we have in defensive depth, which to me is mainly quantity and very, very, very little quality.
In the end, I think best player available is certainly the way to go. Me myself though? Ya, I'd probably prefer a forward. The good thing is, is I don't think we'll be disappointed. There are some nice forwards there that could be had within the top 10 and there are also an abundance of defenseman.
It's really hard to say, I think. At forward leading the way we've got Scheifele (top 2 center), Cormier (bottom 6 forward), Klingberg (top 9 forward), Telegin (top 9 forward) that pretty well top the list. On defence we've got Postma, Kulda, Redmond, Melchiori, Yuen, who I think are all likely to be bottom pairing NHL'ers *if* they even make it. I personally think most of these guys are destined to be AHL'ers. Postma stands a good chance at the NHL given his offensive game. The rest are big question marks for me.
I'd say most of our defensive prospects will turn out to be nothing more than AHL'ers, while Scheifele, Cormier, Klingberg, Telegin stand a pretty good shot at finding roles in the NHL, I think.
I guess if I had to say, I would say that our forward depth is stronger than our defensive depth in the prospect cupboard. I think Scheifele, Cormier, Klingberg, Telegin, etc. top what we have in defensive depth, which to me is mainly quantity and very, very, very little quality.
In the end, I think best player available is certainly the way to go. Me myself though? Ya, I'd probably prefer a forward. The good thing is, is I don't think we'll be disappointed. There are some nice forwards there that could be had within the top 10 and there are also an abundance of defenseman.
I agree with your assessment on where those 4 forwards project. For me, I disagree a bit with the defensemen. I don't know if it's because I've seen them more in years past(Postma and Kulda) or if I just have unrealistic expectations from them.
-Postma: I see as a potential #4 guy that brings offense. No higher then a good #4 though.
-Kulda: I see as a #5, 6, or 7 guy. Basically a bottom pairing fringe guy.
I feel confident that both these guys can be NHL regulars.
Now the rest are really hard to assess. I would say it's really hard to project the others as they are still fairly young. Although I did like what I saw from Redmond at the prospects tournament before the season. Showed poise, leadership, and has a big shot. Definitely the next closet in development after Postma and Kulda.
I guess at this point it's just too early to tell with most of our defensemen whereas we have a pretty good idea with those 4 forwards.
With the Scheifele pick last year and Telegin emerging this season our forward group looks a lot better(although, Telegin was a guy that people liked at the prospects camp after he was drafted. There was promise from the get go. Just wasn't sure yet.).
I agree with your assessment on where those 4 forwards project. For me, I disagree a bit with the defensemen. I don't know if it's because I've seen them more in years past(Postma and Kulda) or if I just have unrealistic expectations from them.
-Postma: I see as a potential #4 guy that brings offense. No higher then a good #4 though.
-Kulda: I see as a #5, 6, or 7 guy. Basically a bottom pairing fringe guy.
I feel confident that both these guys can be NHL regulars.
Now the rest are really hard to assess. I would say it's really hard to project the others as they are still fairly young. Although I did like what I saw from Redmond at the prospects tournament before the season. Showed poise, leadership, and has a big shot. Definitely the next closet in development after Postma and Kulda.
I guess at this point it's just too early to tell with most of our defensemen whereas we have a pretty good idea with those 4 forwards.
It'll be interesting. Who knows, in 2, 3 or 4 years we could look at this and I could be completely wrong.
I think Postma stands a good chance given his offense, but who knows. Tough call, I think.
Kulda, just a tough guess for me. I watched him in his 2 years here in the OHL, and he's good but I'm just not so sure he's good enough. May very well find his rhythm one day as a 6/7 NHL'er, we'll see. Next year will be his 5th full season in the AHL, so it's going to be soon time to either hold on to him or let him go to make room for our other prospects. Who knows, maybe he ends up making it one day, it could be next year or it could be when he is 28 years of age. For some it just takes a while and for the right opportunity to arise.
I think you're correct in that our other defenseman are quite young and it's tough to judge. That's a pretty fair statement.
I've said it a few times already. I want the Jets to draft Griffin Reinhart from the Oil Kings. The kid is a beast, and the Jets really need young defense prospects. It works out.
Is there a chance that Teuvo Teräväinen plays in the U18's or will he still be playing in Finland?
I wonder if if has a strong U18's (if he plays) if he will be a huge riser like Scheifele. There are some reports that he could be one of the most talented offensive players in this draft.
If we end up with a #10-#20 pick, we might be able to draft Alex Galchenyuk. He was expected to go in the top five, but a torn ACL injury has cost him to miss the entire year. He might be available in the middle of the 1st round.
In the second round, I hope we get Tanner Pearson.
Your not going to get Alex Galchenyuk the leafs are going to draft him at #5.
been lurking around the jets forum since we got our team back/
