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Come April, is this a playoff team?

View Poll Results: Will the Sabres make the playoffs?
Yes 45 68.18%
No 21 31.82%
Voters: 66. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
12-21-2011, 10:15 AM
  #26
omglolnub
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
That's where we differ I guess.
The problems are deeper then that, and some success will only prolong the problem. I'd LOVE a deep run... but I'd resent it if it leads to more of the same (same as I loved last year's come back, but hate that it's instrumental in why we "Are what we are" again.
This. It takes massive failure to spark changes. I know a few friends that are Philly fans that in the 09-10 season, didn't like their goalie situation, especially when they squeaked in on the last day of the season in a skills competition. Obviously, a run to game 6 of the Cup finals ensued, but the weak goaltending was exposed in the Cup winning goal.

While sad about the Cup loss, getting within two wins of the Cup had their front office go "nope, no goalie problems here!" much like how the Sabres front office felt after the 2nd half surge of last year, even though Game 7 against Philly showed exactly what the Sabres really were.

Much like the Flyers needing to get embarrassed and swept as they deserved for playing three sieves in goal (and by the Bruins...what a tweeeest!), the Sabres "need" to continue to fail and miss the playoffs. The greater the miss, the more likely the needed changes will happen. I don't like the idea of a lost season as a fan, but if that's what's needed to make this team a winner, then sign me up.

Before anyone calls me a bandwagon fan, I've been a fan since 1995 when I was 8, haha. I'd love to see the team make a deep run (improbable as it seems), but it'd only prolong the real issues surrounding the team that need to be addressed.

@Jame

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12-21-2011, 10:30 AM
  #27
MayDay
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Originally Posted by Loods View Post
ANYTHING can happen in the playoffs.
This is a common cliche, and it is false. While low seeds can upset in a round or two, they never win it all.

Since the current playoffs structure was adopted, the conference seeds of the eventual Cup champions have been:
1994: #1
1995: #5 (lockout shortened season)
1996: #2
1997: #3
1998: #3
1999: #1
2000: #4
2001: #1
2002: #1
2003: #2
2004: #1
2005: lockout
2006: #2
2007: #2
2008: #1
2009: #4
2010: #2
2011: #3

No team seeded lower than #5 has won a Cup under the current playoff structure. And if you throw out the lockout-shortened 1995 season, which is a bad example, it's no team lower than #4.

People need to get out of the habit of thinking that sneaking into the playoffs as a low seed gives the team a chance to win it all. It doesn't. It just doesn't happen.

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12-21-2011, 10:32 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by static80 View Post
Yes, Florida is one of them, New Jersey is another, so to is Toronto.

Buffalo is standing still while these teams management teams make moves to better the product. And right now, each of these teams is better than Buffalo, some of it isn't star power either, it's chemistry between the players.
Sad to see it has come to this for our team, but maybe it's the final straw with this current core, only time will tell.
How is Buffalo standing still relative to Jersey and Toronto? We traded for Regehr, and signed Ehrhoff and Leino. Those were three of the bigger offseason moves in the league. Management absolutely tried to better the team. Whether they actually did, the jury is still out--we'll see where they finish, and if they make the postseason how they do. What did Jersey and Toronto do to make their teams better this offseason?

I think your facts are just plain wrong. We saw less "standing still" this past offseason than any time in recent memory.

Let's see where all the teams end up at the end of the season. Jersey and Toronto have been relatively healthy, and they're still neck and neck with the Sabres.

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12-21-2011, 10:44 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
How is Buffalo standing still relative to Jersey and Toronto? We traded for Regehr, and signed Ehrhoff and Leino. Those were three of the bigger offseason moves in the league. Management absolutely tried to better the team. Whether they actually did, the jury is still out--we'll see where they finish, and if they make the postseason how they do. What did Jersey and Toronto do to make their teams better this offseason?

I think your facts are just plain wrong. We saw less "standing still" this past offseason than any time in recent memory.

Let's see where all the teams end up at the end of the season. Jersey and Toronto have been relatively healthy, and they're still neck and neck with the Sabres.
And that is fine, you have your opinion on the situation, I have mine.
As for the facts you refer to, yes, Buffalo has stood pat when it comes to the talent on this team.

Adding Regehr, Ehrhoff and Leino, 2 of which are defensemen and have missed little time this season, has not in point of fact, elevated this clubs abilities overall.
You may wish to believe that they have due to their name recognition, but that's living in fantasy land once again in my opinion.

Does that mean it will always be this way? Well no, of course not. These players will only get better when they find chemistry among themselves, and nearing half a season, it's plain to see that some players need to go and some brought back in to attempt to find that chemistry in my opinion.

Edit: Oh and I addressed the injury situation in my post, I stated it just is not going to matter, this team is not good enough. The writing is on the wall here in the form of historical reference with this core group over the past 4 seasons. It shouldn't be ignored the way you have done so here.

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Old
12-21-2011, 10:49 AM
  #30
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No, I'm talking about people having their own personal axes to grind, regardless of the outcome.
some people have allowed an unbiased assessment of those outcomes (over the years) to create that axe... which you in turn only see as personal bias...

at worst, it's confirmation bias.

secondly, i think that as those who were late to the party begin coming around to a position held by many for a few years, they find it necessary to belittle them for arriving on time.

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12-21-2011, 10:50 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
some people have allowed an unbiased assessment of those outcomes (over the years) to create that axe... which you in turn only see as personal bias...

at worst, it's confirmation bias.
Are you actually implying you have an unbiased view of something? Oh man, I needed that laugh.

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12-21-2011, 10:53 AM
  #32
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Are you actually implying you have an unbiased view of something? Oh man, I needed that laugh.
i've supported my opinions with reason over the years.

there's a difference in having a strong opinion, and a biased one.

All the crap happening today (with regards to Ruff), is no different then it was pre lock out.

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12-21-2011, 10:53 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by MayDay View Post
People need to get out of the habit of thinking that sneaking into the playoffs as a low seed gives the team a chance to win it all. It doesn't. It just doesn't happen.
It has given several teams since '94 a CHANCE, including the seventh-seeded Sabres in '99. Six teams have been a six seed or lower and lost in the finals. I think people take that data and think all you need is that ticket.

I'm nitpicking. Your point is spot on.

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12-21-2011, 11:00 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by puckish66 View Post
It has given several teams since '94 a CHANCE
My point is that the chance is illusory, and the illusion is strengthened every time a low seed goes on a little bit of a run.

It's all well-and-good to say that a low seed could theoretically win it all. But if it never actually happens in reality, then it's not a real chance at all.

Quote:
Originally Posted by puckish66 View Post
I'm nitpicking. Your point is spot on.
Yeah, my main point was that this type of thinking leads some people to be satisfied with just making the playoffs, thinking all you need to do is make it, and then "anything can happen."

The facts say that you can't win as a low seed, and people shouldn't be satisfied with that if they are honestly hoping to contend for a championship.

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12-21-2011, 11:03 AM
  #35
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Originally Posted by MayDay View Post
My point is that the chance is illusory, and the illusion is strengthened every time a low seed goes on a little bit of a run.

It's all well-and-good to say that a low seed could theoretically win it all. But if it never actually happens in reality, then it's not a real chance at all.



Yeah, my main point was that this type of thinking leads some people to be satisfied with just making the playoffs, thinking all you need to do is make it, and then "anything can happen."

The facts say that you can't win as a low seed, and people shouldn't be satisfied with that if they are honestly hoping to contend for a championship.
To sum up: The key difference is simply making a run vs. actual Cup contention. The winners are not coming out of the bottom 4 at all.

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12-21-2011, 11:31 AM
  #36
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I don't have a crystal ball.

Who knows who will be healthy or injured in the remaining 4 months.

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12-21-2011, 11:42 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
To sum up: The key difference is simply making a run vs. actual Cup contention. The winners are not coming out of the bottom 4 at all.
And in a league where the majority of teams get a playoff berth, that's not terribly surprising.

Teams that can only manage to finish in 15th or 16th place out of 30 during the regular season most likely have fundamental flaws (Flyers goaltending the last 2 seasons), a string of bad luck / injuries to key players, or both.

Teams like that aren't going to be able to successfully run the gauntlet of 4 best-of-7 playoff series to win a Cup. That's a grueling test for any team, even a well built healthy one.

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12-21-2011, 11:49 AM
  #38
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If they ever get healthy, and get the time to develop some chemistry they will make the playoffs.

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12-21-2011, 11:51 AM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MayDay View Post
My point is that the chance is illusory, and the illusion is strengthened every time a low seed goes on a little bit of a run.

It's all well-and-good to say that a low seed could theoretically win it all. But if it never actually happens in reality, then it's not a real chance at all.



Yeah, my main point was that this type of thinking leads some people to be satisfied with just making the playoffs, thinking all you need to do is make it, and then "anything can happen."

The facts say that you can't win as a low seed, and people shouldn't be satisfied with that if they are honestly hoping to contend for a championship.
The pre-lockout shouldn't really be included in this. The top teams back then usually were stacked and had big financial advantages. Post lockout things are a tad different. Post lockout the margins between the playoff teams has been very small with talent getting more evenly spread around. That being the case more and more as we move along into the cap era.

Post lockout the Conference Finals have seen two #5 seeds, three #6 seeds, one #7 seed and two #8 seeds make it. Thats 8 of 24 teams. Hell in 09-10 the Eastern Conference Finals was #7 -vs- #8. Thats the series that gives folks the most hope regardless of seed. I agree its more likely a higher seed will succeed in the end. But in the post lockout world the lower playoff teams have more of chance than you think.


A few bounces or better luck with injuries and we could have had two #8 seeds as Cup champs in the last 6 years. The Oil in 2006 and the Flyers in 2010.


Last edited by joshjull: 12-21-2011 at 12:04 PM.
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12-21-2011, 11:53 AM
  #40
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Originally Posted by MayDay View Post
Yeah, my main point was that this type of thinking leads some people to be satisfied with just making the playoffs, thinking all you need to do is make it, and then "anything can happen."

The facts say that you can't win as a low seed, and people shouldn't be satisfied with that if they are honestly hoping to contend for a championship.
Another urban legend is this: relax, it's only December, you want to get hot toward the end of the season. Because I have no life, I just looked at the record of eventual Cup champions since 94 on Christmas Day. (It's not that hard; there's a site where you can quickly search for standings by date. http://www.shrpsports.com/nhl/stand.htm)

Only Tampa Bay in 03-04 wasn't significantly above .500 and/or on at least a 100-point pace on Dec. 25. They were 14-12-5-1. (Boston was 18-11-4 last season.) Tampa finished the season on a 32-10-3-5 run.

I like that some of us are thinking in terms of what Cup champion teams look like. While the topic, "Is this a playoff team" is a logical one right now, and nothing against the OP, but it kind of makes me throw up a little in my mouth.

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12-21-2011, 12:06 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Post lockout the Conference Finals have seen two #5 seeds, three #6 seeds, one #7 seed and two #8 seeds make it. Thats 8 of 24 teams. Hell in 09-10 the Eastern Conference Finals was #7 -vs- #8. Thats the series that gives folks the most hope regardless of seed. I agree its more likely a higher seed will succeed in the end. But in the post lockout world the lower playoff teams have more of chance than you think.
But those teams didn't win. None of them did.

I never disputed that low seeds can go on a run. I was just pointing out that they never win it all in the end.

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12-21-2011, 12:09 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by MayDay View Post
But those teams didn't win. None of them did.

I never disputed that low seeds can go on a run.
Most teams that win the Cup have a run the year before. Learning how to win in the playoffs if you will. Thats what this team needs and just making the playoffs is all thats required for that.


Quote:
I was just pointing out that they never win it all in the end
The differencee is, post lockout, those lower seeds have a better chance to change that.

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12-21-2011, 12:10 PM
  #43
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Team in its current state is a bubble team. If we cam get and stay healthy, they will be a top 5 team in the conference (at least playing that way)

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12-21-2011, 12:11 PM
  #44
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Playoffs...yes.

2nd round.....only by a miracle.

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12-21-2011, 12:15 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Most teams that win the Cup have a run the year before. Learning how to win in the playoffs if you will. Thats what this team needs and just making the playoffs is all thats required for that.




The differencee is post lockout those lower seeds have a chance to change that.
That sounded nice in 2008... and we were still hearing it in 2010... i don't want to hear that anymore. 5 years of "all this team needs is : ...."

over it

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12-21-2011, 12:21 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by static80 View Post
And that is fine, you have your opinion on the situation, I have mine.
As for the facts you refer to, yes, Buffalo has stood pat when it comes to the talent on this team.

Adding Regehr, Ehrhoff and Leino, 2 of which are defensemen and have missed little time this season, has not in point of fact, elevated this clubs abilities overall.
You may wish to believe that they have due to their name recognition, but that's living in fantasy land once again in my opinion.
There's a lot more talent on this team. They're just not playing up to expectations yet. A combination of inconsistent play and injuries has put them in this situation. But this is a markedly better roster than in years past. In sum, we agree that they haven't yet shown improvement, but we disagree that they stood pat.

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Does that mean it will always be this way? Well no, of course not. These players will only get better when they find chemistry among themselves, and nearing half a season, it's plain to see that some players need to go and some brought back in to attempt to find that chemistry in my opinion.

Edit: Oh and I addressed the injury situation in my post, I stated it just is not going to matter, this team is not good enough. The writing is on the wall here in the form of historical reference with this core group over the past 4 seasons. It shouldn't be ignored the way you have done so here.
How about we let the season play out. I have my doubts, too, about how far this team can go, but I don't think we've seen enough of the team they built for this season.

The bottom line is they did not stand pat as you stated. They attempted to better themselves, and I don't think there's an argument that they didn't attempt to do so. Whether they did actually better the team is up for debate--but I don't think it's up for debate that they stood pat. You don't think they did, while I think they did. We'll just have to wait and see how much the bettered the team.

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12-21-2011, 12:52 PM
  #47
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Just a reminder, lost in the Bruins Cup run was that they were one goal away from going home in the first round and likely firing their coach.

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12-21-2011, 01:16 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by MayDay View Post
But those teams didn't win. None of them did.

I never disputed that low seeds can go on a run. I was just pointing out that they never win it all in the end.
And I didn't say the sabres were going to win it all, I was speaking on if they hypothetically "went on a run," rendering your basis for this argument pointless.

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12-21-2011, 01:21 PM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresFanNorthPortFL View Post
Playoffs...yes.

2nd round.....only by a miracle.
Yep, I just don't see the mentality in this team to win in the playoffs. No killer instinct, not enough battle.

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12-21-2011, 02:04 PM
  #50
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Originally Posted by Loods View Post
And I didn't say the sabres were going to win it all, I was speaking on if they hypothetically "went on a run," rendering your basis for this argument pointless.
You said "ANYTHING can happen in the playoffs."

I don't think that "anything" can happen. If they squeak in as a 7-8 seed, I don't think they can win a Cup.

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