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Rangers vs. Capitals. 7:30pm. Verizon Center. 12.28.2011

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12-29-2011, 03:25 PM
  #476
ChibiPooky
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Re: Ovechkin, he has 4g 6a 10p in 13 games since the coaching change. He had 8g 9a 17p in 22 games prior to that this year. Not sure if that means anything to anybody.

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12-29-2011, 03:27 PM
  #477
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Originally Posted by txpd View Post
a couple things. ovechkin did in the playoffs what he had done in the regular season to a great extent. last season ov was 85pts in 79games regular season and 10pts in 9 playoff games. the season before was 109pts in 72games and 10pts in 7 playoff games. before that was 110pts in 79 games and 21pts in 14 playoff games.

if his playoffs to regular season ratios remain constant he will endup with 2 g and 5pts in a 7 game series.

as for 52. he scored a point in each game in the rangers series including a crucial goal. this season he scored 3 g and 6pts in 8 games including the two he was injured in. thats 4g 11pts in his last 16 games including 3 games in which he was injured. the way i read that, green had returned to his 70pt+ production rate when playing. his ability to dress is his issue. not the quality of his play.

i have no reason to believe that a healthy mike green is not a 65pt to 80pt player. his play backs that up. with ov, he is playing and his production has dropped from 109pts to 85pts to a pace for 60pts.

just for comparison. this is like a player with a five year average of hitting .380 followed by .305, followed by .260 at the halfway mark. thats a big slump
again....you spin things towards 52, its like you have no control

Green, he scored a "crucial goal". You only bring up the NYR series....like being unable to play against TB is OK or something...oh, he did play though...all but 1 game, and played poorly. But lets just talk about NYR when it comes to 52

Ovechkin scored the tieing goal in game one late in the 3rd, thats not crucial? How about his classic Ovechkin type goal going around Staal to go up 2-0 halfway through the series clincher? Guess thats not crucial

Green, again....we can ignore last season I guess. Where he was a .5 point a game player. So....you cant ignore 8's lack of production but 52, thats a different story? You fully expect him to return to 09-10 production but thats unreasonable to assume 8 will too?

Too bad 8's not injured I guess....its obvious you give a pass for not having to, you know, actually play. And if you do play, and produce at half the expected rate...it must be the injuries. That sum it up?

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12-29-2011, 03:33 PM
  #478
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChibiPooky View Post
Re: Ovechkin, he has 4g 6a 10p in 13 games since the coaching change. He had 8g 9a 17p in 22 games prior to that this year. Not sure if that means anything to anybody.
Does to me. Also the pace is quickening: 2g, 3a, 5p in the last 4.

And... I thought the hit on Richards, which led to Semin's first goal, was reminiscent of the hit on Jagr in the Olympics -- open ice on the puck carrier, separates man from puck, leads to quick transition and goal. That maybe have been the last great play of the old Ovie.

Was really happy to see him make that kind of play again and get rewarded.

I get the sense that Dale has effectively told Ovie, 'Look, **** all that stuff about playing safer. Don't play safer, play smarter, but play your game.'

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12-29-2011, 03:36 PM
  #479
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Originally Posted by californiacapsfan View Post
Does to me. Also the pace is quickening: 2g, 3a, 5p in the last 4.

And... I thought the hit on Richards, which led to Semin's first goal, was reminiscent of the hit on Jagr in the Olympics -- open ice on the puck carrier, separates man from puck, leads to quick transition and goal. That maybe have been the last great play of the old Ovie.

Was really happy to see him make that kind of play again and get rewarded.

I get the sense that Dale has effectively told Ovie, 'Look, **** all that stuff about playing safer. Don't play safer, play smarter, but play your game.'
8 gets flack for wearing the C....he goes out last night and makes several nice hits (as he has the last couple weeks)....it sets the tone where I feel the Caps played a physical game, and he lead the way....but, seeing how he only had two assists and set the tone for the game, its nothing positive....no goals and all

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12-29-2011, 03:53 PM
  #480
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Originally Posted by Mothra View Post
again....you spin things towards 52, its like you have no control

Green, he scored a "crucial goal". You only bring up the NYR series....like being unable to play against TB is OK or something...oh, he did play though...all but 1 game, and played poorly. But lets just talk about NYR when it comes to 52

Ovechkin scored the tieing goal in game one late in the 3rd, thats not crucial? How about his classic Ovechkin type goal going around Staal to go up 2-0 halfway through the series clincher? Guess thats not crucial

Green, again....we can ignore last season I guess. Where he was a .5 point a game player. So....you cant ignore 8's lack of production but 52, thats a different story? You fully expect him to return to 09-10 production but thats unreasonable to assume 8 will too?

Too bad 8's not injured I guess....its obvious you give a pass for not having to, you know, actually play. And if you do play, and produce at half the expected rate...it must be the injuries. That sum it up?
ok...i am spun to the point of dizzy. we will just have to agree to disagree. if green's injury is going to be cronic, i am fine with trading him. if ovechkin's production returns to something like his former #'s, i will be very happy.

if not....i will wait to see what your reaction is if 8 continue to struggle.

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12-29-2011, 03:54 PM
  #481
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChibiPooky View Post
Re: Ovechkin, he has 4g 6a 10p in 13 games since the coaching change. He had 8g 9a 17p in 22 games prior to that this year. Not sure if that means anything to anybody.
That's pretty much exactly the same pace before and after the coaching change (~.77 points/game). It shouldn't mean anything to anybody.

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12-29-2011, 03:56 PM
  #482
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Originally Posted by txpd View Post
ok...i am spun to the point of dizzy. we will just have to agree to disagree. if green's injury is going to be cronic, i am fine with trading him. if ovechkin's production returns to something like his former #'s, i will be very happy.

if not....i will wait to see what your reaction is if 8 continue to struggle.
just try to ignore 8's last season in the same way you do with 52

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12-29-2011, 03:58 PM
  #483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
That's pretty much exactly the same pace before and after the coaching change (~.77 points/game). It shouldn't mean anything to anybody.
Yeah I started the post and data collection without really knowing what I was going to find. Was kind of sad when it turned out that I found absolutely nothing, but thought I'd post it anyway since I'd bothered. Plus it'll make future calculations easier with a reference point.

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12-29-2011, 04:00 PM
  #484
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Originally Posted by Mothra View Post
8 gets flack for wearing the C....he goes out last night and makes several nice hits (as he has the last couple weeks)....it sets the tone where I feel the Caps played a physical game, and he lead the way....but, seeing how he only had two assists and set the tone for the game, its nothing positive....no goals and all
speaking of spin. this all got started because someone posted that the two assists were a reason to "back away from the edge". that ov was back. i never said i was not happy with the game he played. 12 goals after 35 games is my biggest problem with him after a 30 goal season. nothing in the game last night addressed that.

however, i was not attacking him as a bad captain or not leading the way or not playing hard or not doing what he could do to help the team win.

we have been over the rest. you think 45 to 50 goal ov is just on hiatus and will be back. certainly by playoffs. this is just a slump.

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12-29-2011, 04:02 PM
  #485
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Originally Posted by Mothra View Post
just try to ignore 8's last season in the same way you do with 52
you are right about 52. he needs to be watched like a hawk. just like 8.
wondering...green needs a new contract. would you extend him at his current pay rate? if ov's contract were expiring, would extend him at his current rate?

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12-29-2011, 04:04 PM
  #486
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Originally Posted by ChibiPooky View Post
So what course of action, then? I see a few options:

1) Try to deal him at the deadline for a high-end rental/pick depending on playoff status

2) Deal his rights after the season ends (at the draft)

3) Let him walk

4) Re-sign him

Am I missing anything?
You have to QO him if you can't get a reasonable contract or trade in place prior to July 1. That retains his rights so if you do let him walk, you get compensation.

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12-29-2011, 04:18 PM
  #487
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Nice win. They were physical, opportunistic and took the play to the Rangers.

Could have sworn it was a loss the way some people are b******g though.

Also, Ovie must have had a terrible game according to some.

Some things never change. Lol.

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12-29-2011, 04:23 PM
  #488
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Originally Posted by txpd View Post
speaking of spin. this all got started because someone posted that the two assists were a reason to "back away from the edge". that ov was back. i never said i was not happy with the game he played. 12 goals after 35 games is my biggest problem with him after a 30 goal season. nothing in the game last night addressed that.

however, i was not attacking him as a bad captain or not leading the way or not playing hard or not doing what he could do to help the team win.

we have been over the rest. you think 45 to 50 goal ov is just on hiatus and will be back. certainly by playoffs. this is just a slump.
something I forgot to add earlier....you mention 52's production only against NYR. If you did that with Ovechkin you would see that, you get 49 goals, 98 point projection. I understand that doesnt help your point....but if you want to look at Green only for that series you should do the same for 8

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12-29-2011, 04:29 PM
  #489
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i am factoring in that a point per game is brilliant for any defenseman and a point per game is well below specs for ovechkin. so, yea. green at a point per game is pretty good and ov at a point per game is pedestrian for him.

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12-29-2011, 04:31 PM
  #490
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Originally Posted by ALLCAPSALLTHETIME View Post
Also, Ovie must have had a terrible game according to some. .
can you post up where someone said ovie had a terrible game?

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12-29-2011, 04:37 PM
  #491
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Originally Posted by txpd View Post
i am factoring in that a point per game is brilliant for any defenseman and a point per game is well below specs for ovechkin. so, yea. green at a point per game is pretty good and ov at a point per game is pedestrian for him.
but you have, countless times, done projections.....for Ovechkin, thats 49 goals and 98 points....not point per game

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12-29-2011, 04:40 PM
  #492
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All I know is that I hope we play our best towards the end of the season and throughout the playoffs. It'd be nice to peak at the tight time for once. I'd also pick a goalie and let them ride through the ups and downs for an extended period. A two headed monster usually doesn't pan out come postseason. My money is w TV, buy that's just me.

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12-29-2011, 05:06 PM
  #493
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lol talk about spin. Who was in radio, you are better at it than we are! just keep saying someone said something, true or not, everyone believes it to be true.

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12-29-2011, 05:10 PM
  #494
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Important weekend coming up, opportunity to get 6 points in the next 3 games, Buffalo at home, Columbus on the road and then Calgary back at home. Six points will most likely put them back in the top 8 in the East.

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12-29-2011, 05:25 PM
  #495
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Important weekend coming up, opportunity to get 6 points in the next 3 games, Buffalo at home, Columbus on the road and then Calgary back at home. Six points will most likely put them back in the top 8 in the East.
6 pts is important, but the confidence boost of winning a few in a row is the most critical thing for this team right now, especially if they can do it in decisive fashion.

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12-29-2011, 05:29 PM
  #496
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Originally Posted by txpd View Post
you are right about 52. he needs to be watched like a hawk. just like 8.
wondering...green needs a new contract. would you extend him at his current pay rate? if ov's contract were expiring, would extend him at his current rate?
Thatís a really good question. I would be ok with either of them at the same contract but not both of them. We cannot be paying OV 9mill and have him playing like 6mill and have Green on IR. I think we could get by with the risk of one of them.

Itís like I have been saying for a few years now. We need to pick one of Semin or Green and trade the other.

A - Keep Green if you think he will mature physically.

B- Keep Semin if you think will start to play hard every night.

C- Do nothing like the team did. And have two guys that are all world talents that you canít trade for close to their value. And have the days go by not being able to count on anything from them.

I would look at it the same way now if OV and Green were to sign at their current contract level.

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12-29-2011, 05:32 PM
  #497
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You play him to the end of the season and see what you have. The options appear after that.

I brought this up yesterday in other thread when Green opened his mouth about his injury. Very dicey situation.

I hope he plays well enough to become sign and tradeable.... to Anaheim.
That means little if anything. The team obviously has access to most of, if not all of the information Green is getting from doctors on all hockey related injuries. The only difference is that he revealed it to the public which doesn't really mean much because the fans don't have that much of an impact on who gets signed and for how much.

I mean sure fans can influence decisions but not enough to make a big difference. If it was up to the fans Semin would have been traded for a ham sandwich by now and Ovi would be on the verge of being placed on the trade block. Heck Green would have been traded back in 2010 at the latest.

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12-29-2011, 05:52 PM
  #498
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That means little if anything. The team obviously has access to most of, if not all of the information Green is getting from doctors on all hockey related injuries. The only difference is that he revealed it to the public which doesn't really mean much because the fans don't have that much of an impact on who gets signed and for how much.

I mean sure fans can influence decisions but not enough to make a big difference. If it was up to the fans Semin would have been traded for a ham sandwich by now and Ovi would be on the verge of being placed on the trade block. Heck Green would have been traded back in 2010 at the latest.
What are you talking about? Of course it doesn't. But it provided insight for us to have a more thoughtful discussion on his future and team's options.

Edit: no problem


Last edited by HSHS: 12-29-2011 at 06:46 PM.
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12-29-2011, 05:56 PM
  #499
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What are you talking about? Of course it doesn't. But it provided insight for us to have a more thoughtful discussion on his future and team's options.
Sorry that wasn't directed specifically at you but rather the other people that have said that Green basically killed all his leverage by citing the nature of his injury publicly. Your post might have not have been the best to quote to counter that point.

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12-29-2011, 06:59 PM
  #500
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I'm not a stat geek to the point of genius, but I think it's no mere coincidence that the PP failing has led to a severe drop off in Ovechkin's scoring goals. If the PP was humming along at its top 5 pace, he's probably on track for 40-45 goals and a lot more points. The miserable PP might be due to him suffering, and it might be due to a combination, but 20th isn't getting it done.

I mean if they have a marginal improvement in the PP you have to expect that corresponds to not only wins but probably ten or fifteen more points over the course of the season for Ovechkin

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