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James Neal's next contract

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Old
12-27-2011, 10:48 PM
  #26
Coach John McGuirk
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Too soon to tell. He seems to be on pace for 35+ goals, assuming he cools down a bit, which I think he will, and we haven't had a legit 30+ goal threat on the wing for a decade.

If he finishes the season like he's started it, I expect him to cost between $4.5M and $5M. Remember, the cap will likely be going up again, so even a mid to upper tier winger is going to cost a pretty penny.

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12-27-2011, 10:48 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
Malone benefited from playing with Malkin. That didn't prevent a Tampa from coming along and overpaying for him.

The one saving grace is that Neal is a RFA. If it's a one or two year deal, I could see it being in that 4.5 - 4.75M range. If it's 5 years, I think you're talking the 5.0 - 5.25M range.
Malone was Lawton/Koules mishap. I really doubt that he would get anything close to what he got from them anywhere else.

Wouldn't you think that longer the contract, (somewhat) lesser the money rule applies?

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12-27-2011, 10:50 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Humungus66871 View Post
Last I checked Martin has a no movement clause as a part of his contract. The full details of his contract don't seem to be readily available, but assuming he would not agree to a trade that takes him off a stanley cup contender to where ever Shero tries to send him or atleast put up whatever resistance his contract allows him (the logical assumption), throwing around his name as often as it gets thrown around in these fantasy cap discussions seems to be a tad on the wishful thinking side.
Martin has a limited NMC. He can list teams at the beginning of each season to which he will not accept a trade. I'm guessing it's 8-12 (Orpik can list 8 in his NTC). What makes the limited NMC different than a limited NTC clause is that, in addition to his being able to list teams where he refuses to allow a trade, he also can't be assigned to the minors (which is a way some teams will bury bad contracts). That said, if there are 8-12 teams where Martin can't be traded short of his waiving the NMC, there conceivably are 17-21 teams where he could be traded (although the actual number is maybe 25% of that practically speaking).

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12-27-2011, 10:51 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Coach John McGuirk View Post
Too soon to tell. He seems to be on pace for 35+ goals, assuming he cools down a bit, which I think he will, and we haven't had a legit 30+ goal threat on the wing for a decade.

If he finishes the season like he's started it, I expect him to cost between $4.5M and $5M. Remember, the cap will likely be going up again, so even a mid to upper tier winger is going to cost a pretty penny.
Boy, I hope you're right. I'm still thinking he's played himself into a Ryan type deal.

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12-27-2011, 10:53 PM
  #30
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There's a higher chance Neal's pace slows than picks up or even stays the same.. so I think waiting is in Shero's best interest. That said, I'm very glad he's producing so well.

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12-27-2011, 10:53 PM
  #31
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Historically he's been a strong first-half player but tapers off as the season progresses. It'll be interesting to see what happens if he continues with this solid play. Shero probably watches games and hopes that Neal and TK will somehow flipflop in the results department. I'm such a cynic.

James seems to really love Pittsburgh and has said many times that his comfort level directly affects his playing ability. He may want stay in Pitt despite getting offered more money elsewhere. Of course, he may also want the follow the benjamins. I vaguely remember a story from an article in which Brad Richards chided him for buying $100 socks.

I hope we can hang onto him.

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12-27-2011, 10:55 PM
  #32
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And 82 pts. A point per game player isn't going to sign for $4m a year. I'm hoping that he signs for less than what Jeff Carter got a few years ago ($5.2m per) if he doesn't slow down this year.
Carter signed for a lower cap hit because it was spread out over what, 11 years? We know the Pens won't do that.

I'd be thrilled if they did 5 years at a $5.25 million hit to be honest. You know Shero isn't signing him for more than 5 years.

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12-27-2011, 10:55 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by laufer72 View Post
Malone was Lawton/Koules mishap. I really doubt that he would get anything close to what he got from them anywhere else.

Wouldn't you think that longer the contract, (somewhat) lesser the money rule applies?
Not necessarily. For example, Neal is a RFA. He could agree to a one or two year deal for the low 4M range and not sacrifice any years in terms of when he's a UFA. Once you start talking about his giving up those years, that's when I think you move north of 5M on a longer terms deal.

Where the rule applies is on those longer term deals that takes a player until his late 30's. A team will front load money in the contract and spread out the cap hit.

As for Malone, my point in mentioning him was that his production with Malkin wasn't a factor in his deal. Was Lawton an idiot to give so much and for so long? Sure he was. BUT, someone else would have come close on the dollars for a 4-5 year deal.

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12-27-2011, 10:56 PM
  #34
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If I'm James Neal, I want to be stuck with Malkin for as long as I can at this point.

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12-27-2011, 11:03 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by Humungus66871 View Post
Last I checked Martin has a no movement clause as a part of his contract. The full details of his contract don't seem to be readily available, but assuming he would not agree to a trade that takes him off a stanley cup contender to where ever Shero tries to send him or atleast put up whatever resistance his contract allows him (the logical assumption), throwing around his name as often as it gets thrown around in these fantasy cap discussions seems to be a tad on the wishful thinking side.
What's written on Capgeek makes no sense whatsoever :

KNOWN CLAUSES: NMC; Limited NTC

If he has a NMC, I can't see why he would have a NTC and even less a limited one at that.
NMC is basically a NTC plus no waiving, right?

EDIT : Ok KIRK already answered. still Capgeek version is quite stupid.

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12-27-2011, 11:15 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by SirBrad View Post
Carter signed for a lower cap hit because it was spread out over what, 11 years? We know the Pens won't do that.

I'd be thrilled if they did 5 years at a $5.25 million hit to be honest. You know Shero isn't signing him for more than 5 years.
I could be wrong, but I think he was referring to the 3 year contract carter signed after he started to break out in Philly. The 11 year deal has a cap hit around 5.83 or something I believe.

That said, around 5 mil seems about right especially if he hits 40 goals. Anything less is a discount, realistically.

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12-27-2011, 11:27 PM
  #37
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Neal is one goal off the league lead and has a PPG average.

If he is anything close to continuing along these lines, we don't want him to go to arbitration, that is for sure.

...and about his +35 goals pace.... with him being at 21 right now, he has to score 14 goals in the remaining 46 games.... and with how Malkin and the PP is going it seems pretty unlikely that he doesn't get that and then some, IMO.
We have talked about his hot starts in past seasons, but he has never been a PPG player with almost half the regular season gone. Nor has he ever - with all due respect to Brad Richards - been on a line with a guy like Malkin who has a hand in pretty much double figure goal scoring chances every game. The situation he has landed in is a snipers dream. But in arbitration you look at numbers. Not the 'Geno' effect.

Again - we really don't want him to go to arbitration.

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12-27-2011, 11:33 PM
  #38
zhenyas most fly rep
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Originally Posted by Coach John McGuirk View Post
Too soon to tell. He seems to be on pace for 35+ goals, assuming he cools down a bit, which I think he will, and we haven't had a legit 30+ goal threat on the wing for a decade.

If he finishes the season like he's started it, I expect him to cost between $4.5M and $5M. Remember, the cap will likely be going up again, so even a mid to upper tier winger is going to cost a pretty penny.
That's perfectly reasonable, but think about that : since Neal, Malkin and Kunitz have been playing together, Neal has had 6 goals in 7 games, 4 of them 5on5.
Off course, that's a small sample size and I think he won't sustain it (almost 1g/game) but it's not like Neal is burying every scoring chance he has had either.
For example, tonight, he was robbed once and made a great pass to Kunitz on what looked like some "sure" goals for him.(both beautifully set up by Malkin btw)

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12-27-2011, 11:53 PM
  #39
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If Neal keeps this scoring pace, he's gonna demand upto $6.5m. The only saving grace is that he's a RFA. I'm thinking 4 years $22m ($5.5 cap hit).

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12-28-2011, 12:06 AM
  #40
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1M for 15 years.

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12-28-2011, 12:22 AM
  #41
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Originally Posted by shelaur22 View Post
Historically he's been a strong first-half player but tapers off as the season progresses. It'll be interesting to see what happens if he continues with this solid play. Shero probably watches games and hopes that Neal and TK will somehow flipflop in the results department. I'm such a cynic.

James seems to really love Pittsburgh and has said many times that his comfort level directly affects his playing ability. He may want stay in Pitt despite getting offered more money elsewhere. Of course, he may also want the follow the benjamins. I vaguely remember a story from an article in which Brad Richards chided him for buying $100 socks.

I hope we can hang onto him.
http://squarerootofnine.com/blog/ninety-one/

Quote:
The relationship between Brad Richards & James Neal seemed like something special. Yes, they were roommates, but for Neal, Richards was also a mentor. One of my favorite stories that shows the kind of guy Brad is & the voice he was in Neal’s professional life happened on a California road trip. Apparently Neal had purchased a really, really expensive pair of socks at some store on Sunset & when Richards heard he looked at Neal and said, “We don’t spend $100 on socks.” It seems strange to think that a guy who made $7.8M each of his three full seasons here considers $100 socks to be extravagant, but he understood that $100 socks represented a mind-set of misaligned priorities.

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12-28-2011, 12:35 AM
  #42
jerome garcia
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didnt know they made 100 dollar socks. what the hell makes them that expensive?

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12-28-2011, 12:47 AM
  #43
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No clue, but I've wondered if he still has them. Do they need to be dry cleaned or can they be thrown in with the rest of the wash? Do they have holes in the toes, yet?

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12-28-2011, 01:50 AM
  #44
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Originally Posted by shelaur22 View Post
Historically he's been a strong first-half player but tapers off as the season progresses. It'll be interesting to see what happens if he continues with this solid play. Shero probably watches games and hopes that Neal and TK will somehow flipflop in the results department. I'm such a cynic.

James seems to really love Pittsburgh and has said many times that his comfort level directly affects his playing ability. He may want stay in Pitt despite getting offered more money elsewhere. Of course, he may also want the follow the benjamins. I vaguely remember a story from an article in which Brad Richards chided him for buying $100 socks.

I hope we can hang onto him.
Shero isn't letting this winger get away. I'm sure Neal would love to continue to play with Geno for a few more years as well. I expect a reasonable deal getting wrapped up fairly quickly when talks commence between the two parties.

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12-28-2011, 02:03 AM
  #45
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I'm thinking Shero can work his magic and get him for ~5M.

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12-28-2011, 02:09 AM
  #46
Ugene Malkin
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I'm thinking Shero can work his magic and get him for ~5M.
This.

For a discount of .500 per for 5 years = 25.0

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12-28-2011, 02:14 AM
  #47
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Originally Posted by jerome garcia View Post
didnt know they made 100 dollar socks. what the hell makes them that expensive?
I am guessing every forward in the league is looking for a pair of those $100 socks figuring they may have had a hand in his production this year.

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12-28-2011, 08:10 AM
  #48
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Neal seems like a good guy. I can't see him trying to hold us 'cap-hostage'. It seems like he legitimately enjoys this organization and he isn't really the player that can create a ton of offense on his own. He needs that elite playmaker to really shine. Currently, what teams are out there that have elite playmakers that would offer him something like 6-7 million?

I'd be happy to have him at 5. Malkin and Crosby are pretty good gambling chips to dangle in front of a young scoring winger.

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Old
12-28-2011, 08:33 AM
  #49
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If he hits 40 goals, I think he's around 5m per. If he is in the low-mid 30's...Probably something 4-4.5.

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12-28-2011, 08:34 AM
  #50
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Originally Posted by M0NTY26 View Post
Neal seems like a good guy. I can't see him trying to hold us 'cap-hostage'. It seems like he legitimately enjoys this organization and he isn't really the player that can create a ton of offense on his own. He needs that elite playmaker to really shine. Currently, what teams are out there that have elite playmakers that would offer him something like 6-7 million?

I'd be happy to have him at 5. Malkin and Crosby are pretty good gambling chips to dangle in front of a young scoring winger.
And he knows the situation here. This team is trying to assemble something that can rival dynasties of past. Everyone gives up a little to win. That's how it is, that is what is known, and I could see Neal doing it.

That's why what Neal DESERVES and what he will take are probably a few 100k different, IMO.

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