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Approximate wins needed to make the playoffs from this point

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12-19-2011, 07:22 PM
  #1
bigdaddydroc
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Approximate wins needed to make the playoffs from this point

So I absolutley love those threads that show what winning percentage/how many games we will have to win to make the playoffs (estimated of course). I'm not really good at doing that kind of stuff though. Anyone care to post it here and update it occasionally? It would be fun to track I think.

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12-19-2011, 07:31 PM
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If we use last season's 97 points as the threshold for the 8th seed and exclude OT points, then the difference between that and the Avalanche now (31) is 66 points. Already 33 games have elapsed, leaving 49, including tonight's match with the Flyers.

Do the math and the team would need 33 wins for a 33-16-0 record (67% wins).

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12-19-2011, 07:36 PM
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The Shermanator
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A lot.

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12-19-2011, 07:43 PM
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Adama0905
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NHL33 View Post
If we use last season's 97 points as the threshold for the 8th seed and exclude OT points, then the difference between that and the Avalanche now (31) is 66 points. Already 33 games have elapsed, leaving 49, including tonight's match with the Flyers.

Do the math and the team would need 33 wins for a 33-16-0 record (67% wins).
Or 29-16-4, 25-8-16, so on.

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12-19-2011, 09:17 PM
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A lot.
You mean: not gonna happen

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12-20-2011, 12:57 AM
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Jaymond Flurrie
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Originally Posted by Adama0905 View Post
Or 29-16-4, 25-8-16, so on.
Basically it also depends on who you lose to. If you go 16-0-32 to finish with 97 points and of those 16 wins you get 9 against East and of those rest seven wins you win each after regulation, you end up giving away 71 points against West ie. about five per Western team and thus raising the playoff-bar to somewhere around 102 points.

edit. For these last 50 games, go by the rule of "win twice as many on regulation as you lose on regulation" and you'll make the playoffs.

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12-20-2011, 09:50 AM
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seacard
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http://www.sportsclubstats.com/2011-.../Colorado.html

This shows what our playoff odds are (5.6%), who to root for in any given game, and the projected cut-off to make the playoffs. Right now, to have a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs, we need to go 27-15-6. (I think the projection is a bit lower this year than years past because the Eastern Conference teams are doing a better job against the West, the Avs excluded.)

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12-20-2011, 10:19 AM
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Razor29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seacard View Post
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/2011-.../Colorado.html

This shows what our playoff odds are (5.6%), who to root for in any given game, and the projected cut-off to make the playoffs. Right now, to have a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs, we need to go 27-15-6. (I think the projection is a bit lower this year than years past because the Eastern Conference teams are doing a better job against the West, the Avs excluded.)
Is it just me or does it say our playoff chances are 15.9% ..

Edit: Colorado Avalanche chances for the division are 5.6% ..

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12-20-2011, 10:22 AM
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Ivan13
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Is it just me or does it say our playoff chances are 15.9% ..
According to that link they're 15.9%, so it isn't just you.

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12-20-2011, 02:07 PM
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seacard
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Weird. When you click on that link, it automatically goes to the "2011-2012 realign," which I assume shows what our playoff chances would be if the realignment happened this year. If you click on "2011-2012" on the left side of the screen, it changes to 5.6.

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12-21-2011, 06:32 PM
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bigdaddydroc
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seacard View Post
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/2011-.../Colorado.html

This shows what our playoff odds are (5.6%), who to root for in any given game, and the projected cut-off to make the playoffs. Right now, to have a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs, we need to go 27-15-6. (I think the projection is a bit lower this year than years past because the Eastern Conference teams are doing a better job against the West, the Avs excluded.)
sweet! this is what was looking for...thank you!

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12-21-2011, 08:11 PM
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IMO if we can win 30 games from hear to the seasons end, we'll be dancing with the big teams in April. That would put us at 93 Points, and given the fact that the East has played much better against the West this year, I think 93 will be right there for the playoffs.

The way were playing right now, I would definitly think its possible for us to go something like 28-16-4 the rest of the way. EJ and Stas are waking up, Goaltending is becoming much more consistent.

Its a tough record to accomplish, but its doable if we play like we have the last 5 games!

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12-21-2011, 08:32 PM
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I wouldn't get my hopes up just to be disappointed. Another month long collapse is more likely than a month of winning 2 out every 3 games.

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12-21-2011, 11:18 PM
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Even being in the running is far exceeding expectations. And I think the whole "Caps get Yakapuv" has been put to bed.

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12-21-2011, 11:33 PM
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i can't seem em being basement this year.

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12-22-2011, 12:46 AM
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How does San Jose have 5 less games played?!

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12-22-2011, 01:44 AM
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Lead the way...


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12-22-2011, 02:18 AM
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Jaymond Flurrie
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How does San Jose have 5 less games played?!
I guess that's pretty normal at almost any given point in regular season that one team has five less games than another.

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12-22-2011, 02:20 AM
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I wouldn't get my hopes up just to be disappointed. Another month long collapse is more likely than a month of winning 2 out every 3 games.
I won't get my hopes anywhere before the ten month streak is over.

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12-22-2011, 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted by bigdaddydroc View Post
i can't seem em being basement this year.
Guess we'll see. I couldn't imagine them being in the basement last year, and look what happened.

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01-06-2012, 04:53 PM
  #21
bigdaddydroc
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http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W.../Colorado.html

Just thought I'd provide an update for the half way point of the season.

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01-06-2012, 07:20 PM
  #22
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We ended up with a pretty good 1st half thanks to our ridiculous run over the last 10 games, definitly in the thick of things now.

I think if we can go something like 22-15-4 in the 2nd half we'll be right on the buble of the playoffs. The East has played much better against the West this year, and the Playoff race is very tight this year, I think somewhere between 90-95 Points will be enough to make playoffs this year.

44-33-5 would be good for 93 points, I have a feeling thats going to be right on the bubble, could be just inside, could be out by a point or two.

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01-06-2012, 11:22 PM
  #23
bigdaddydroc
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Originally Posted by AvsFan7 View Post
We ended up with a pretty good 1st half thanks to our ridiculous run over the last 10 games, definitly in the thick of things now.

I think if we can go something like 22-15-4 in the 2nd half we'll be right on the buble of the playoffs. The East has played much better against the West this year, and the Playoff race is very tight this year, I think somewhere between 90-95 Points will be enough to make playoffs this year.

44-33-5 would be good for 93 points, I have a feeling thats going to be right on the bubble, could be just inside, could be out by a point or two.
despite the fact that it would suck to be just outside of the playoffs, I would be happy with being a point or two out. that'd be a huge step in the right direction for this team and could help our chance of signing ufa's in the off season.

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01-06-2012, 11:37 PM
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Flanagan
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I know this doesn't mean anything, but if we were to go 40-0-0 for the rest of the year, we would finish with 127 points.

The year we first won the cup, the wings had 131 points.

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01-07-2012, 12:00 AM
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For the purpose of this thread I will assume the threshold mark to make the playoffs is 95 points, since that is that most points ever received by a team that missed out (us in '07).

We have 40 games remaining, and would need to receive 48 points.

Also for simplicity's sake, I am going to ignore OT/SO losses, which don't affect us very much anyways.

So a record of 24-16-0 would theoretically get us in, or a winning percentage of .600


It won't be easy, but it's definitely possible.

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