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Old
06-03-2010, 09:59 AM
  #1
chewey
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Ryan O'Reilly

Reading back at the CHI-COL trade proposal it got me thinking about RoR a little bit more. As a 19 year old he had 26 points over the season and played solid defensively. Given, he produced more than half of his 26 points in the first 20 games and had goal scoring drought of 30+ games twice.

What is his potential? He was drafted 1st overall in the OHL and was drafted with the potential of being a top 6 forward.

IMHO, he could be a 2nd line center making one of Stastny or Duchene expendable in the future. I am not talking about next year but 4 - 5 years down the road he could be a solid 60 point two way player ala Kesler.

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06-03-2010, 10:06 AM
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Starrlinx
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I agree with the Kesler comparison, though I don't think he will ever be the physical player Kesler is. 60 points seems a bit high but I could easily see him having multiple 40-50 point seasons.

Having said that, I don't see any way O'Reilly makes Duchene or Stastny expendable unless one of those two are really underacheiving or the Avs find themselves in serious Cap hell. Think of him as our Jordan Stall. Maybe down the road he could be a second line center on other teams but he won't ever be that here.

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06-03-2010, 10:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Starrlinx View Post
I agree with the Kesler comparison, though I don't think he will ever be the physical player Kesler is. 60 points seems a bit high but I could easily see him having multiple 40-50 point seasons.
Hey just saying. If you were to tell me that Kesler would have 70+ point season between the 04 - 07 season I'd think you'd be nuts. Stranger things have happened and RoR was drafted to be a top 6 forward not a 3rd line center (tho, he does a hell of a job).

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Having said that, I don't see any way O'Reilly makes Duchene or Stastny expendable unless one of those two are really underacheiving or the Avs find themselves in serious Cap hell. Think of him as our Jordan Stall. Maybe down the road he could be a second line center on other teams but he won't ever be that here.
Really? Our defense is deep but it doesn't have a no. 1 dman. If we could trade Stastny for someone like Weber/Suter/Bowmy/etc. I'd consider it.

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06-03-2010, 10:35 AM
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Key issue: without some decently talented linemates and a chance to utilize and develop his offensive skills he will never develop them at the NHL level. I hope next year he's with Gali and Yip/Jones and can also contribute offensively.

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06-03-2010, 10:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Asce View Post
Hey just saying. If you were to tell me that Kesler would have 70+ point season between the 04 - 07 season I'd think you'd be nuts. Stranger things have happened and RoR was drafted to be a top 6 forward not a 3rd line center (tho, he does a hell of a job).
Fair point about Kesler. Not sure how relevant what RoR was drafted to be is though. On this team he is a third line center who looks like he can provide some offense.

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Really? Our defense is deep but it doesn't have a no. 1 dman. If we could trade Stastny for someone like Weber/Suter/Bowmy/etc. I'd consider it.
First, I don't think Bowmy isin the same category as those other two. I also don't see too many teams trading established #1 defensemen for two way centers. One is a lot easier to find than the other. That seems like a pipe dream to me.

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06-03-2010, 10:41 AM
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I think it's tough to see his NHL ceiling right now. The sample size is just too small. He certainly can't go through droughts like he did this season and expect to be a top-six player on the Avs.

I'd love for him to get a season with some consistent/worthwhile linemates to really see what we've got. RoR's ceiling is very high, but I don't know if it's untradeable high. He'd get us a very good return for some needed pieces.

That said, I doubt management would do so, the comments they had about getting him at the draft seems to indicate that they were very high on him.

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06-03-2010, 10:45 AM
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Alex Jones
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I think that Dave Bolland would be a fair comparison to RoR offensivley.

I think he's a 40-50 pt. player the way he is right now, but could elevate his point totals if he scored more often. (read: if he went to the net more often).

He has talent as a playmaker in the future. My one complaint about him is I think he's on the perimeter too often.

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06-03-2010, 10:49 AM
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Personally, I don't see him ever getting the chance to prove himself as a second line center. Duchene will always get the linemates that he does, and Stastny will always put up a solid 70-80 points a season. Unless one of them gets injured for an entire season, I doubt he will ever get thrust in to a top six role for an extended period of time.

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06-03-2010, 10:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Starrlinx View Post
Not sure how relevant what RoR was drafted to be is though.
Eh, hum. Put it to you this way. RoR was suppose to be a 1st round, late one at best, pick. Now, how often do you see teams wasting a 1st round pick on a 3rd liner? Now obviously he dropped to the 2nd round and I could safely assume that he wouldn't drop past the top 50 (he was ranked in top 30s for most rankings).

My point being if he were drafted by another team he wouldn't be seen as a 3rd line player more so a future 2nd line center. Weather or not he'd crack another teams line up is a another debate but I don't think he'd be pinned as a no. 3 guy.

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First, I don't think Bowmy isin the same category as those other two. I also don't see too many teams trading established #1 defensemen for two way centers. One is a lot easier to find than the other. That seems like a pipe dream to me.
Hey I said a no. 1 dman, I didn't say the best no. 1 dman available. Hell I'd love to ship out Stastny for Bogosian (I have a man crush on him) or L.Schenn but that won't happen.

As for its easier to find a no. 1 center, I wouldn't be so sure. They are more common than no. 1 dmen, but how many teams have legitimate no. 1 centers?

Ducks - Getz
Atlanta - None
Boston - Savard
Sabres - None
Flames - None
Canes - Staal
Hawks - Toews
Avs - Stastny
CBJ - None
Stars - Richards
Wings - Datz/Zets
Oilers - None
Panthers - None
Kings - Kopitar
Wild - Koivu
Habs - None (Not counting Gomez since the guy hasn't hit 60+ points in the past 4 seasons)
Preds - None
Devils - None (Zajac is a better 2nd line player than 1st IMHO)
NYI - None
NYR - None
Sens - Spezza
Flyers - Richards/Carter
Coyotes - None
Pens - Crosby/Malkin
SJ - Thornton
Blues - None
TB - Vincent/Stammer
TML - none
Nucks - Sedin
Caps - Backstrom

Almost half of the NHL teams don't have a no. 1 center (I define it as a player who is near a PPG clip). Quite sure that there'd be a market for them.

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06-03-2010, 10:56 AM
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...And that doesn't even express how I don't think he has the potential to be a top two guy anyway. Think of it this way: Stastny is a very near ppg at the very least, and we all expect Duchene to be a ppg guy too. Does anyone honestly expect O'Reilly to ever be able to post up ppg numbers? Because I really, very much, do not.

So that basically means the only way he becomes a top two guy on this team is if Duchene busts or Stastny is taken down by a career ending injury.

Guys with great offense don't go through huge huge point droughts like O'Reilly went through. He basically had single digit points the entire last of the season and then some. Yes, I realize for the most part he had bad linemates and he was mostly counted on to provide great defense, but still, the guy didn't put up points.

My ceiling for him is forty points a season.

Of course, I could be wrong. Only saw him for a season and he's a teenager so he could have more potential than it looks like. It just looks like, to me, fifty points is stretching it, top six role is wayyyyyyyy stretching it.

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06-03-2010, 10:59 AM
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I think ROR has huge potential, and can grow as much as Duchene. He may not have the "wow" factor like Duchene does, but he has alot of heart and determination. Look how much he grew this past year to beable to play on the club. Look how he was producing at the start of the season.

Given the right linemates and chances to play as a second line center which he should IMO I think O'Reilly could possibly be as good as Stastny. He came into the NHL much younger on a team not filled with stars like Sakic, Foresberg, Brunette, etc. His shot is actually pretty decent and usually creates rebounds.

I see him as someone who can put up 60 pts a year and score alot more given good linemates. Unfortunately I think one of our Centers at some point will be traded and Stastny would get the best return, possibly a top line LW'er or D-man...

Maybe I'm just to high on certain players, but no one expected him to make the team really, I had a feeling he would before the year started, but how well he played at most points in the season is beyond what I would've predicted. If we draft someone like Skinner things will get really interesting down the middle.

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06-03-2010, 11:00 AM
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NOTENOUGHBREWER
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asce View Post
Eh, hum. Put it to you this way. RoR was suppose to be a 1st round, late one at best, pick. Now, how often do you see teams wasting a 1st round pick on a 3rd liner? Now obviously he dropped to the 2nd round and I could safely assume that he wouldn't drop past the top 50 (he was ranked in top 30s for most rankings).

My point being if he were drafted by another team he wouldn't be seen as a 3rd line player more so a future 2nd line center. Weather or not he'd crack another teams line up is a another debate but I don't think he'd be pinned as a no. 3 guy.



Hey I said a no. 1 dman, I didn't say the best no. 1 dman available. Hell I'd love to ship out Stastny for Bogosian (I have a man crush on him) or L.Schenn but that won't happen.

As for its easier to find a no. 1 center, I wouldn't be so sure. They are more common than no. 1 dmen, but how many teams have legitimate no. 1 centers?

Ducks - Getz
Atlanta - None
Boston - Savard
Sabres - None
Flames - None
Canes - Staal
Hawks - Toews
Avs - Stastny
CBJ - None
Stars - Richards
Wings - Datz/Zets
Oilers - None
Panthers - None
Kings - Kopitar
Wild - Koivu
Habs - None (Not counting Gomez since the guy hasn't hit 60+ points in the past 4 seasons)
Preds - None
Devils - None (Zajac is a better 2nd line player than 1st IMHO)
NYI - None
NYR - None
Sens - Spezza
Flyers - Richards/Carter
Coyotes - None
Pens - Crosby/Malkin
SJ - Thornton
Blues - None
TB - Vincent/Stammer
TML - none
Nucks - Sedin
Caps - Backstrom

Almost half of the NHL teams don't have a no. 1 center (I define it as a player who is near a PPG clip). Quite sure that there'd be a market for them.
You forgot Hodgson

Stamkos as a rookie and Tavares as a rookie both went through huge growing pains and had long stretches where they did nothing. So I agree O Reilly can put up more points that he did. But he needs to be in the right situation to do it. Good linemates, the opportunity to play a more offensive role and not just be a shut down guy.

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06-03-2010, 11:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Starrlinx View Post
I agree with the Kesler comparison, though I don't think he will ever be the physical player Kesler is. 60 points seems a bit high but I could easily see him having multiple 40-50 point seasons.

Having said that, I don't see any way O'Reilly makes Duchene or Stastny expendable unless one of those two are really underacheiving or the Avs find themselves in serious Cap hell. Think of him as our Jordan Stall. Maybe down the road he could be a second line center on other teams but he won't ever be that here.
This is exactly how I feel. Except I don't think he's as good as Staal. On a lot of teams, he would probably develop in to a second line center. But on a team with two centers that will probably hit ppg simultaneously a lot of seasons, I don't see a guy like Radar making it.

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06-03-2010, 11:04 AM
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Does anyone honestly expect O'Reilly to ever be able to post up ppg numbers? Because I really, very much, do not.
Eh, honestly its hard to say. IF given a top 2 role and decent line mates and the time to mature by the time he is around 25 I could see 50+ points. The kid does have offensive talent, its not as if his first 20 games of the season was a fluke.

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Guys with great offense don't go through huge huge point droughts like O'Reilly went through.
Don't make me pull up the Iginla, Kesler, Burrows, Sedin, Sedin, Thornton, M.Richards, Koivu, Briere, Ribero, ... (sigh, I am sure you get my point) stats in their first few seasons!

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He basically had single digit points the entire last of the season and then some. Yes, I realize for the most part he had bad linemates and he was mostly counted on to provide great defense, but still, the guy didn't put up points.
Oh noes, a 18 year old rookie hit a rookie wall! Even Tavares hit a block for more than half the season (be it, his beginning and end he produced like mad).


Also, let me put this out before it causes confusion. I am NOT advocating any trades just wanted to know how people felt about RoR potential. Just saying if given the chance he could be more. Maybe not next year but a few years down the road.

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06-03-2010, 11:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asce View Post
Eh, honestly its hard to say. IF given a top 2 role and decent line mates and the time to mature by the time he is around 25 I could see 50+ points. The kid does have offensive talent, its not as if his first 20 games of the season was a fluke.



Don't make me pull up the Iginla, Kesler, Burrows, Sedin, Sedin, Thornton, M.Richards, Koivu, Briere, Ribero, ... (sigh, I am sure you get my point) stats in their first few seasons!



Oh noes, a 18 year old rookie hit a rookie wall! Even Tavares hit a block for more than half the season (be it, his beginning and end he produced like mad).


Also, let me put this out before it causes confusion. I am NOT advocating any trades just wanted to know how people felt about RoR potential. Just saying if given the chance he could be more. Maybe not next year but a few years down the road.
But 50+ points is exactly what I mean. 50+ points is not the bar for becoming a top two center on this team in the next few years. It'll probably be about 70+ points. Do you see O'Reilly putting up those kind of numbers?

I dunno, it just, to me, doesn't look like he has the tools for it. But I could definitely be wrong. I was one of the people who said that Stewart was probably done in the League, so take whatever I say with a grain of salt. Although I'm pretty sure it'll take O'Reilly much longer than just a season to prove me wrong, and he'll have to be helped along by one of Stazz or Duchene dying.

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06-03-2010, 11:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Adama0905 View Post
But 50+ points is exactly what I mean. 50+ points is not the bar for becoming a top two center on this team in the next few years. It'll probably be about 70+ points. Do you see O'Reilly putting up those kind of numbers?
Eh, you have lofty expectations for 70+ point 2nd line centers. Not many teams have those.

Boston - Potentially with Savard/Krejci
Stars - Richards/Riberio (tho aren't there mumbles about Ribero being traded? )
Wings - Dats/Zets
Flyers - Richards/Carter
Pens - Crosby/Malkin
Tampa - Vincent/Stammer
Nucks - Sedin/Kesler

So really, you have about a little more than 1/5th of the league that have two 70+ point centers. Even then half of the players mentioned didn't even hit 70 this season.

Quote:
I dunno, it just, to me, doesn't look like he has the tools for it. But I could definitely be wrong. I was one of the people who said that Stewart was probably done in the League, so take whatever I say with a grain of salt. Although I'm pretty sure it'll take O'Reilly much longer than just a season to prove me wrong, and he'll have to be helped along by one of Stazz or Duchene dying.
Again, I am talking down the road. RoR is only 19. Hell Stewart is 23 and he's finally breaking out now. I'd think by the time he is 23 - 25 RoR will be able to put all the tools together. But for the next few (2 - 3 years) he is fine as a no. 3. I am just thinking long term here, too long?

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Originally Posted by electricjib View Post
I think ROR has huge potential, and can grow as much as Duchene. He may not have the "wow" factor like Duchene does, but he has alot of heart and determination. Look how much he grew this past year to beable to play on the club. Look how he was producing at the start of the season.

Given the right linemates and chances to play as a second line center which he should IMO I think O'Reilly could possibly be as good as Stastny. He came into the NHL much younger on a team not filled with stars like Sakic, Foresberg, Brunette, etc. His shot is actually pretty decent and usually creates rebounds.

I see him as someone who can put up 60 pts a year and score alot more given good linemates. Unfortunately I think one of our Centers at some point will be traded and Stastny would get the best return, possibly a top line LW'er or D-man...

Maybe I'm just to high on certain players, but no one expected him to make the team really, I had a feeling he would before the year started, but how well he played at most points in the season is beyond what I would've predicted. If we draft someone like Skinner things will get really interesting down the middle.
Glad we agree.

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You forgot Hodgson
Dammit! The hockey gods will punish me for this.

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Stamkos as a rookie and Tavares as a rookie both went through huge growing pains and had long stretches where they did nothing. So I agree O Reilly can put up more points that he did. But he needs to be in the right situation to do it. Good linemates, the opportunity to play a more offensive role and not just be a shut down guy.
Couldn't have said it better myself.

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06-03-2010, 11:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asce View Post
Eh, you have lofty expectations for 70+ point 2nd line centers. Not many teams have those.

Boston - Potentially with Savard/Krejci
Stars - Richards/Riberio (tho aren't there mumbles about Ribero being traded? )
Wings - Dats/Zets
Flyers - Richards/Carter
Pens - Crosby/Malkin
Tampa - Vincent/Stammer
Nucks - Sedin/Kesler

So really, you have about a little more than 1/5th of the league that have two 70+ point centers. Even then half of the players mentioned didn't even hit 70 this season.
Yeah, but do you see him outscoring Stastny or Duchene? At the very least, Stastny will always hit 70 unless he gets injured, he has established that by now. Do you think he outscores Duchene?

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06-03-2010, 11:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Adama0905 View Post
Yeah, but do you see him outscoring Stastny or Duchene? At the very least, Stastny will always hit 70 unless he gets injured, he has established that by now. Do you think he outscores Duchene?
Eh, I don't think you understood what I was saying then.

Outscoring those two? No. Stastny is a established no. 1 center regardless of how he looks in that role. Duchene has the potential to be a no. 1 center is already a decent 2nd line center. I am not saying RoR will be better than those two. I am saying does having RoR potentially make of them expendable in the future due to RoRs potential.

If RoR consistently hits 40 points as a 3rd line center (what you are expecting) when he is around 21 and showing signs of improvement each progressing year would you feel comfortable moving him into the top 2?

This isn't a RoR > Stastny/Duchene. That is BS. This is RoR = potential 2nd line center.

Make sense or did I confuse you more?

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06-03-2010, 11:28 AM
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Eh, I don't think you understood what I was saying then.

Outscoring those two? No. Stastny is a established no. 1 center regardless of how he looks in that role. Duchene has the potential to be a no. 1 center is already a decent 2nd line center. I am not saying RoR will be better than those two. I am saying does having RoR potentially make of them expendable in the future due to RoRs potential.

If RoR consistently hits 40 points as a 3rd line center (what you are expecting) when he is around 21 and showing signs of improvement each progressing year would you feel comfortable moving him into the top 2?

This isn't a RoR > Stastny/Duchene. That is BS. This is RoR = potential 2nd line center.

Make sense or did I confuse you more?
Naw, I got ya.

I just know that generally, the Avs management is gonna try and replicate the 96-2004 teams as much as possible by building us around the centers, even if it doesn't really work (although I think it will). So I don't see any of these guys getting traded. I'm pretty sure Stazz and Duchene right now are just about as close to "untouchable" as you can get unless somebody offers up an already elite center for Duchene.

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06-03-2010, 11:31 AM
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My concern is if O Reilly gets purely defensive assignments and always plays the safe game and has a revolving door of pluggers for linemates he'll never develop the skills needed to fill in as a second line C.

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06-03-2010, 11:36 AM
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Naw, I got ya.

I just know that generally, the Avs management is gonna try and replicate the 96-2004 teams as much as possible by building us around the centers, even if it doesn't really work (although I think it will). So I don't see any of these guys getting traded. I'm pretty sure Stazz and Duchene right now are just about as close to "untouchable" as you can get unless somebody offers up an already elite center for Duchene.
They sure are doing a horrible job of it on Defense tho (future wise that is, Foote doesn't count!)
We'll see what happens tho I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the players get traded down the road.

Fun fact however, the past few stanley cup winners have had three solid lines rolling:

Ducks - Getz/Mac/Phalsson
Wings - Datz/Zets
Pens - Crosby/Malkin/Staal


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My concern is if O Reilly gets purely defensive assignments and always plays the safe game and has a revolving door of pluggers for linemates he'll never develop the skills needed to fill in as a second line C.
Yea, I hope that he can get more PP time next season and/or that we won't have so many injuries again so he has solid wingers on his side.

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06-03-2010, 11:42 AM
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Also, let me put this out before it causes confusion. I am NOT advocating any trades just wanted to know how people felt about RoR potential. Just saying if given the chance he could be more. Maybe not next year but a few years down the road.
Oh pssst....we all know you can't wait to trade Stastny

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RoR was suppose to be a 1st round, late one at best, pick. Now, how often do you see teams wasting a 1st round pick on a 3rd liner?
Again, not seeing the relevance to where RoR was drafted...

Quote:
My point being if he were drafted by another team he wouldn't be seen as a 3rd line player more so a future 2nd line center. Weather or not he'd crack another teams line up is a another debate but I don't think he'd be pinned as a no. 3 guy.
But he wasn't drafted by another team

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As for its easier to find a no. 1 center, I wouldn't be so sure. They are more common than no. 1 dmen, but how many teams have legitimate no. 1 centers?
I didn't say it was easy to find a #1 center but rather it was easier to find a #1 center then it is to find a #1 defensemen.

Quote:
Almost half of the NHL teams don't have a no. 1 center (I define it as a player who is near a PPG clip). Quite sure that there'd be a market for them.
Oh, there would be a market for Stastny for sure. Would that market allow you to acquire a #1 defensemen? Doubtful...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adama0905 View Post
This is exactly how I feel. Except I don't think he's as good as Staal. On a lot of teams, he would probably develop in to a second line center. But on a team with two centers that will probably hit ppg simultaneously a lot of seasons, I don't see a guy like Radar making it.
Agreed. I don't think RoR is as good as Staal. My comparison was the roles on their respective teams.

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Yeah, but do you see him outscoring Stastny or Duchene? At the very least, Stastny will always hit 70 unless he gets injured, he has established that by now. Do you think he outscores Duchene?
Completely agree. This is why I don't think he will ever be more then a checking center with some offensive ability on this team.


Last edited by Starrlinx: 06-03-2010 at 11:51 AM.
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06-03-2010, 11:46 AM
  #23
chewey
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Pft, hater. We know you want Gali to rot on the 3rd line but now RoR too! Blasphemy.

I guess we'll have to wait and see. It is a small sample size for sure and who knows what he can do within the next few years with his work ethic. I just hope that what ever offensive potential he has won't be diminished by his focus on defensive play.

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06-03-2010, 12:01 PM
  #24
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I fall into the optimistic camp I think when it comes to O'Reilly's upside.

Watching O'Reilly in the playoffs, I was very impressed by how much his skating has improved, and he created some of the best scoring chances the Avs saw against the Sharks with McCleod and Tucker as wingers. In the future, I'd really like to see a 3rd line with O'Reilly, Galiardi, and Jones, Yip, or Stoa, because then we might see some of O'Reilly's offensive skills blossom.

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06-03-2010, 12:12 PM
  #25
Bubba Thudd
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If RoR has what it takes to be a 2nd line Center, how would you guys feel about playing him there and moving Dutch to a Wing?

That is, IF, we get a defensively responsible guy who can win face-offs for the 3rd line Center...

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