Speculation: Goalie controversy - Winter Classic edition

[MountainHawk]

Leighton is an AHL allstar ... maybe we should call him up and give him a shot?

[Damaged Goods]

Originally Posted by Chris Shafer

Um...

Stats ---> Theory =/= Proof

Theory ---> Stats = Proof

We suspected Bobrovsky was playing better than Bryzgalov using visible evidence. That theory/belief was enhanced/strengthened by the fact that Bobrovsky's stats greatly outshone Bryzgalov's.

That is, in fact, the correct way to use statistics.

Leighton was...

We suspected Leighton is a good goalie by using statistics however, visual evidence and context clues led us to make the assumption that his stats were just being padded.

It's completely different, and I'm kind of in shock that you see that as the same thing...

Did you "suspect" that Bryz was playing worse because a greater percentage of shots were going in the goal over a certain number of games? The stats here are just an exact record of an obvious observed outcome... of course they confirm what you are seeing. But that does not mean that they are a truthful reflection of the inference you are making with them (who is the better goalie). Anyone who has done study of what SV% can tell you about goalie talent/ability would tell you that valuing a sample size of ~30 recent games is over 100s of previous games is NOT "the correct way to use statistics."

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde..._goalie_skill/
http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=558

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cohen%27s_d#Cohen.27s_d
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Signal-to-noise_ratio

[Chris Shafer]

Originally Posted by Damaged Goods

Did you "suspect" that Bryz was playing worse because a greater percentage of shots were going in the goal over a certain number of games? The stats here are just an exact record of an obvious observed outcome... of course they confirm what you are seeing. But that does not mean that they are a truthful reflection of the inference you are making with them (who is the better goalie). Anyone who has done study of what SV% can tell you about goalie talent/ability would tell you that valuing a sample size of ~30 recent games is over 100s of previous games is NOT "the correct way to use statistics."

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde..._goalie_skill/
http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=558

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cohen%27s_d#Cohen.27s_d
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Signal-to-noise_ratio

I said that Bobrovsky was PLAYING better than Bryzgalov, not that he is better...

[GoneFullHolmgren]

people look at Bobrovsky's numbers in limited time and think he can be a #1 goalie playing 60 games a season. Kinda reminds me when the Flyers had Niittymaki

[MsWoof]

Originally Posted by GoneFullHolmgren

people look at Bobrovsky's numbers in limited time and think he can be a #1 goalie playing 60 games a season. Kinda reminds me when the Flyers had Niittymaki

The only difference is Bob is young. Right now, neither of them are doing great but Bryz should be playing better based on age, experience and acceptance of a contract knowing he'd be expected to be a star goalie.

[WeekendAtBernies]

Originally Posted by MsWoof

The only difference is Bob is young. Right now, neither of them are doing great but Bryz should be playing better based on age, experience and acceptance of a contract knowing he'd be expected to be a star goalie.

You can't blame Bryz for his contract... that's not fair to him.

If your boss came in tomorrow and offered you a million dollar raise, you'd take it right? I don't know a person in this world who would say "Thanks but no thanks... I don't think I'd earn it."

Homer and Snider made a stupid offer. Bryz accepted. There is zero responsibility on Bryz for that poor contract... that's on Snider/Homer (probably more on Snider after his comments).

He obviously needs to play better though.

[Damaged Goods]

Originally Posted by Chris Shafer

I said that Bobrovsky was PLAYING better than Bryzgalov, not that he is better...

"Playing better" and "being better" are just different ways of slicing the same pie.

Again, was this conclusion based on shots going in the goal more frequently over a certain number of games? Then of course the numbers are going to "confirm" what you are seeing.

[Chris Shafer]

Originally Posted by Damaged Goods

"Playing better" and "being better" are just different ways of slicing the same pie.

Not really...

Simmonds is playing better than JVR. That doesn't mean Simmonds is a better player than JVR.

Originally Posted by Damaged Goods

Again, was this conclusion based on shots going in the goal more frequently over a certain number of games? Then of course the numbers are going to "confirm" what you are seeing.

Yeah, through the course of the entire season, as young as it may be, Bobrovsky has been better overall than Bryzgalov based both on statistics and visual evidence as well as Laviolette's decision to go with Bob in the Classic.

But if you want to continue to dispute this, be my guest.

[kimmofan44]

i think bryz needs to ride the bench for another couple games to be alone with his thoughts(and his thermos) i've been a bryz supporter since day one but his recent dealings with the media have left a bad taste in my mouth(and i'm sure his teammates and coaches too). how can he be trusted to backstop this team to a stanley cup when he emotionally implodes when things don't go his way? if he can't handle the speedbumps of the regular season without a complete mental collapse, how we handle it when his face is plastered on every paper in phila when he has a bad playoff start? i don't think he'll face it with the zen like calmness he likes to pretend he has. its not his physical prowess i'm worried about, its his mental toughness...