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FC releases January ranking for 2012 draft

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Old
01-03-2012, 02:36 PM
  #26
nanzenkills
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Originally Posted by DuckJet View Post
I'll just assume that because you said shouldn't you are aware that it still does. Niedereitter cruised into top 10 to top 5 rankings almost purely on the back of an impressive WJC showing. That's just one example, but WJC performance weighs heavily on how a prospect is scouted. It isn't like, oh hey here's a chance for EVERYONE to see this draft eligible prospect, but we're not going to judge his performance one bit because he's not as far in his development as his teammates. No, you gauge how well the player is doing despite being behind in his development and trying to see what kind of potential he has.
There are situations where it doesn't make much of a difference, though. The Niederreiter situation is an example of where the WJC does make a difference, where a lower-ranked player increases his standing with a great WJC performance.

However, in situations where there is a top prospect who has been heavily scouted already, a poor WJC performance (or not making it to the WJC at all) generally doesn't hurt their ranking.

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01-03-2012, 02:39 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by nanzenkills View Post
Would you say that every player you have ranked ahead of Trouba has stepped up in high-pressure situations? I'm genuinely curious, not being snide.
Good question. Collberg (who is in the same range as Trouba IMO) and Forsberg yes. The others that I have higher are all CHL, which I believe (and it's a matter of opinion here folks, probably a biased one too) is a higher pressure league because of things like media attention. That being said, their performance in the playoffs this upcoming year, Ceci in particular, is something that will hold weight in my (and most) final rankings.

It's not everything, of course, and it's tough to project, seeing as there are so few truly high-stakes games in a season.

As for the whole judging based on the WJC... well, put it this way: we get a chance to see players play at a much higher level with a lot of pressure. Of course we'll take it into consideration. A poor performance here or there isn't the end of the world, but I'm not just going to ignore it. Same goes for a good performance like Collberg.

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01-03-2012, 02:57 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by insider View Post
Good question. Collberg (who is in the same range as Trouba IMO) and Forsberg yes. The others that I have higher are all CHL, which I believe (and it's a matter of opinion here folks, probably a biased one too) is a higher pressure league because of things like media attention. That being said, their performance in the playoffs this upcoming year, Ceci in particular, is something that will hold weight in my (and most) final rankings.

It's not everything, of course, and it's tough to project, seeing as there are so few truly high-stakes games in a season.

As for the whole judging based on the WJC... well, put it this way: we get a chance to see players play at a much higher level with a lot of pressure. Of course we'll take it into consideration. A poor performance here or there isn't the end of the world, but I'm not just going to ignore it. Same goes for a good performance like Collberg.
I've been trying to follow Forsberg but have missed all of Sweden's games so far. So you would say that in spite of his relative lack of production, he has stepped up at the WJC?

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01-03-2012, 02:58 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by nanzenkills View Post
There are situations where it doesn't make much of a difference, though. The Niederreiter situation is an example of where the WJC does make a difference, where a lower-ranked player increases his standing with a great WJC performance.

However, in situations where there is a top prospect who has been heavily scouted already, a poor WJC performance (or not making it to the WJC at all) generally doesn't hurt their ranking.
I don't know. I don't think Girgensons really helped himself much. Trouba probably secured a top ten position.

I mean, remember. GMs watch these games closely as do their club scouts. A lot of their opinion goes into what they saw in this tournament.

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01-03-2012, 03:03 PM
  #30
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I've been trying to follow Forsberg but have missed all of Sweden's games so far. So you would say that in spite of his relative lack of production, he has stepped up at the WJC?
Yes. I've really liked his play, he's been creating a lot of scoring chances.

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Originally Posted by DuckJet View Post
I don't know. I don't think Girgensons really helped himself much. Trouba probably secured a top ten position.

I mean, remember. GMs watch these games closely as do their club scouts. A lot of their opinion goes into what they saw in this tournament.
Girgensons is in a different class IMO because of how relatively poor the team is. It's the same scenario as MacKinnon at the u17 challenge in Windsor; 3pts in 4 games. I didn't see much from Jensen either in the first couple of games.

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01-03-2012, 03:14 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by insider View Post
Good question. Collberg (who is in the same range as Trouba IMO) and Forsberg yes. The others that I have higher are all CHL, which I believe (and it's a matter of opinion here folks, probably a biased one too) is a higher pressure league because of things like media attention. That being said, their performance in the playoffs this upcoming year, Ceci in particular, is something that will hold weight in my (and most) final rankings.

It's not everything, of course, and it's tough to project, seeing as there are so few truly high-stakes games in a season.

As for the whole judging based on the WJC... well, put it this way: we get a chance to see players play at a much higher level with a lot of pressure. Of course we'll take it into consideration. A poor performance here or there isn't the end of the world, but I'm not just going to ignore it. Same goes for a good performance like Collberg.
Why does Ceci playoff performance in particular hold more importance for you? Just curious.

Love Ceci btw....just clarifying your stance...

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01-03-2012, 03:31 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Qubax View Post
Why does Ceci playoff performance in particular hold more importance for you? Just curious.

Love Ceci btw....just clarifying your stance...
-5 in a four game sweep to a heavy underdog last year. I didn't see any of it, so I'm not sure if it was a bad team performance or what happened... but I still want to see if he can step it up a notch or two.

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01-03-2012, 03:44 PM
  #33
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Yes. I've really liked his play, he's been creating a lot of scoring chances.
Thanks for the insight. Will have to catch Sweden's last two games.

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01-03-2012, 05:49 PM
  #34
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-5 in a four game sweep to a heavy underdog last year. I didn't see any of it, so I'm not sure if it was a bad team performance or what happened... but I still want to see if he can step it up a notch or two.
It was a horrific team performance. Ceci's +/- was pretty indicative of team play. And even if it was some bad play (he certainly did not shine), its a small set of games. People will still look at the body of work.

Specifically in this case some players I think would benefit from their teams having longer playoffs runs. Ceci of course comes to mind, arguably any number of players on good teams that aer currently ranked say 6th through 25th.

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01-03-2012, 06:08 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by Edges7 View Post
FWIW, if there is any 1994 draft eligible prospect who disappointed me in that tournament it was Zemgus Girgensons.
Well, his tournament ain't over yet. I agree his numbers aren't stellar, but it's one thing to be talanted 17-year old on a stacked Canadian roster and whole another being a similiar underager on the lowly Latvian team, which by the way this year is having the youngest team in the tournament.

By the way have you seen his goal against Sweden? Around 8:25. This goal oozes class.

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01-04-2012, 08:28 AM
  #36
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Well, his tournament ain't over yet. I agree his numbers aren't stellar, but it's one thing to be talanted 17-year old on a stacked Canadian roster and whole another being a similiar underager on the lowly Latvian team, which by the way this year is having the youngest team in the tournament.

By the way have you seen his goal against Sweden? Around 8:25. This goal oozes class.
I will never dispute his skills.

Girgensons has lost his composure several times at several points over the course of this tournament. At times, it appeared to me that he simply quit. I've been silent about Girgensons over the course of the last two seasons because I have been on the fence over him since he made the EJ to USHL jump. In 2009/10, I had an associative relationship with his EJ team - they had moved him up from their Empire Team when it was apparent that even the EJ wasn't going to much of a challenge for him. The kid played flat out edgy but was also very well disciplined.

Since coming to the U, he has put up numbers but, at times, he seems to play distracted or on the periphery. He also seems to lose his cool/composure for no apparent reason at times. I have seen all of these characteristics further emerge over the course of this tournament.

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01-04-2012, 10:40 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by SuperSwede21 View Post
I believe that Trouba will drop just because of how poor him and his team have played at the WJCs.
I must have been watching a different player then.
He looked very impressive in the USA games I saw.

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01-04-2012, 03:02 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Passchendaele View Post
Galchenyuk at five?

Frk 20th with one goal in seven games?
It's about projection, not about current numbers.

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Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
Henrik Sameulsson has been released by Modo to join up with the Oil Kings. Big pick up by them and I wonder if this is to increase his draft stock?

"If it's to increase his draft stock" OR "Will increase his draft stock". ?

Which do you mean?

Obviously it will increase his draft stock by coming to North America and playing on a great team. It's also a winning situation for Edmonton, adding another dynamite player.

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01-05-2012, 08:26 AM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Edges7 View Post
I will never dispute his skills.

Girgensons has lost his composure several times at several points over the course of this tournament. At times, it appeared to me that he simply quit. I've been silent about Girgensons over the course of the last two seasons because I have been on the fence over him since he made the EJ to USHL jump. In 2009/10, I had an associative relationship with his EJ team - they had moved him up from their Empire Team when it was apparent that even the EJ wasn't going to much of a challenge for him. The kid played flat out edgy but was also very well disciplined.

Since coming to the U, he has put up numbers but, at times, he seems to play distracted or on the periphery. He also seems to lose his cool/composure for no apparent reason at times. I have seen all of these characteristics further emerge over the course of this tournament.
Interesting observations. I'm not sure how games are refereed in USHL, but imo he like to play physical, get under oppositions skin, playing on the edge of rules, thus the he might suffer from tight refereeing. On his very first shift this tournament he went for a heavy hit and got called for charging and team allowed a goal immediately, in fact Latvia allowed countless short-handed goals as the tournament progressed, so I'd like to think that his display was heavily influenced by fears of getting penalized.

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01-05-2012, 08:39 AM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Renegade Stylings View Post
Obviously it will increase his draft stock by coming to North America and playing on a great team. It's also a winning situation for Edmonton, adding another dynamite player.
I'd more say its for the exposure. And that is a double edged sword. He is going to be more highly scrutinized now and playing with players that are more contemporary with him (as far as the draft goes). If he shines, its great for his draft status, but if he plays average, it will likely hurt him.

And just because he is playing for a good team is not necessarily that good. Certainly great teams can make good players look great, but he also could be not used to his fullest potential due to depth.

I'll point to two Windsor players as examples. Ebert looked great last year when paired with great players. On a bad team he looks practically lost. Look a few years ago, Henrique was almost considered an afterthought with Hall, Shugg, Nemisz, Bailey and Ellis on the team, and now he is outscoring Hall and Ellis combined (OK, Ellis has not made it yet). Henrique was a third round pick, 3 of those 4 were first rounders. Basically he was lost in the shuffle.

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