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Regular season stats of past Cup champs

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Old
12-31-2011, 05:03 PM
  #1
Stefan It Up
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Regular season stats of past Cup champs

http://nhlquickhits.blogspot.com/201...-champion.html

Good article. Of course, past performance is no guarantee in predicting the future, but it looks like the Canucks do need to bolster their even strength play to cover all the bases of the look of a Cup champ. Better even strength play (and injury status) would have made a difference last spring for sure. The Canucks winning recent games with next to zero PP isn't necessarily a bad thing so the team's psyche doesn't get overly reliant on "Wait till we get the Sedins out on PP".

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12-31-2011, 05:12 PM
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VanEric
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Sure but the "Why can't we ever get a ****ing call?" probably balances those good feelings out.

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12-31-2011, 05:44 PM
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The Bob Cole
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So he did some statistical analysis on something we could have all said and known without doing that...

You need to be well rounded (i.e., depth), score goals, have a hot goalie and strong defense and make sure your special teams win you the battles when you need it.

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12-31-2011, 07:00 PM
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eklunds source
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He said that cup winning teams usually finish over 1.25 at even strength, and eliminated the Canucks... yet the Canucks GF:GA at 5v5 is 1.27 right now. Incidentally, last year's dominant Canucks team - both in the regular season and in making game 7 SCF - finished at... 1.27. I didn't check the date but his number seems to be wrong.

Rather than declare that as fact.. I think it's worth checking into HOW each team is arriving at their numbers.

Right now the top-5 5-v5 GF:GA teams this year are:

1. Boston, 1.89
2. Detroit, 1.69
3. San Jose, 1.46
4. St. Louis, 1.38
5. Vancouver, 1.27
(Philly is 6th at 1.13, those 5 have lots of seperation to the rest of the league)

Here's an easy graph.. think of the left chart blue as "strongly associated with talent" and the right chart to be "strong associated with luck".

Boston: Their play has been consistantly between 55 and 52 percent shots the entire year at 5v5 - even when they started 3-7. They had horrendous luck to start the year, as their PDO hit 970 at one point (due largely to opposing goaltenders having lucky games; look at the shooting percentage it doesnt climb to league average (7.9%) until game 12. They're far better than the 3-7 start was, not nearly as good as their ridiculous record is since then, and still a top team in the league.

Detroit: Haven't dropped below 55% all year. Their record and constant winning and losing streaks to start the year are completely because of the way luck hit them; a PDO that dropped to 975, shot up to 1015, back down close to 1, etc (the further into the season, the larger the sample size, so naturally variations will shrink in size farther into the season, hence it looks like a ripple rather than spikes). They're probably better than the Bruins at 5v5 regarding controlling shots and play, but Boston has freakishly better goaltending and is probably likely to sustain a higher PDO than Detroit.

San Jose: Also consistantly strong in shots, never dropping below 52.5%. PDO has been a bit wild, but within a narrow range. Seems to be stabilizing around 1015, their shooting percentage is right on the money league-wide (shooting percentage is around 88% luck).

St. Louis: Probably the most consistant team yet for shots ratio - what a surprise they are.. Their success will likely be sustained throughout the year, although their goaltending has been unsustainably good. Elliott and probably even Halak will likely still have career years, but the odds of Elliott (0.951sv% at ES) topping Tim Thomas' record (0.947) set last year is low. Already Elliott's ES sv% has dropped from 0.963 which it was not long ago in November.

Vancouver: By far the lowest of the lows in PDO - the reason Bieksa was -X to start the year is because his forwards were shooting just 2.5% while his goaltenders were stopping 88.5% of ES shots. Nobody is going to be a + player when that happens... but since then the team has recovered and their season-long PDO is still climbing to 1020 now. It's likely their team-wide PDO 'talent' will persist with strong team goaltending and the Sedins have a demonstrated history of 3+ years of dominating shooting percentage; they really do pick their spots more than most star players, though have less "chances" overall. However.. the fact their PDO has reached 1020 on the year means the team is probably better than their very average start, but not as good as their very strong run over the last 20 or so games.


For Close Fenwick, the top-5 teams are Detroit, St. Louis, Vancouver, Chicago, and Boston - in that order. Boston has, again, freakishly good goaltending, and that's not included in close fenwick, so they're definitely an elite team but their players/system aren't quite as good at controlling play as the others (still incredible relative to the league). Pittsburgh is right behind those 5 teams (very close to Boston), and those 6 teams have a lot of seperation from the rest of the league.

Given that DET, STL, VAN, and BOS all figure in the top-5 of both stats, I'd leave the 'true competitors' for the cup this year, barring a crazy goaltending run (ie Halak, or Thomas-style performance) are those 4 and wouldn't eliminate any of them.

If anyone can recommend a place to bet on St. Louis for the cup at half-season I'd be happy to put a $20 on them if the odds are reasonable. They really are a good team, IMO.

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Old
12-31-2011, 07:21 PM
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Potatoe1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eklunds source View Post
Vancouver: By far the lowest of the lows in PDO - the reason Bieksa was -X to start the year is because his forwards were shooting just 2.5% while his goaltenders were stopping 88.5% of ES shots. Nobody is going to be a + player when that happens... but since then the team has recovered and their season-long PDO is still climbing to 1020 now. It's likely their team-wide PDO 'talent' will persist with strong team goaltending and the Sedins have a demonstrated history of 3+ years of dominating shooting percentage; they really do pick their spots more than most star players, though have less "chances" overall. However.. the fact their PDO has reached 1020 on the year means the team is probably better than their very average start, but not as good as their very strong run over the last 20 or so games.


Personally it seems normal to me that the Canucks would have a PDO above 1000.

Not only do they have one of the best goaltending Duo's in the league but they have quite a bot of offensive talent through out their line up.

As you noted, their 2 best offensive players are guys who tend not to shoot the puck a lot.

Further to that our current 4th line while perhaps giving up quite a few shots against, does a great job of limiting quality scoring chances.

May seem like small things, but they do add up.

I doubt we see the Canucks current PDO regress very much unless our goalies falter.

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