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Old
07-13-2005, 01:58 PM
  #1
CROMAG
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Draft Lottery

This sucks, why couldn't they have done a weighted system based on the last 5 years instead of the last 3. Or just not done a weighted system. For all those years we sucked horribly, making the playoffs the last 2 years puts us in the same boat as Detroit with this draft. How bad is that going to suck if Florida wins the lottery and gets Crosby.

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07-13-2005, 02:05 PM
  #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CROMAG
This sucks, why couldn't they have done a weighted system based on the last 5 years instead of the last 3. Or just not done a weighted system. For all those years we sucked horribly, making the playoffs the last 2 years puts us in the same boat as Detroit with this draft. How bad is that going to suck if Florida wins the lottery and gets Crosby.

Hmm, winning the Stanley Cup or have a better chance to have the first overall pick?

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07-13-2005, 02:10 PM
  #3
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Florida has the same number of ping pong balls as us, one. Same with Carolina and Washington, Im happy the NHL won't be rewarding pathetic franchises like Florida by giving them more balls.

Besides, unless we are unlucky and are the last team picked it will be an improvement from picking 30th.

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07-13-2005, 03:11 PM
  #4
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We've kinda been rewarded enough for our bad years don't you think? We'd have even more to show for it if it weren't for Dudley.

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07-13-2005, 03:14 PM
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But still Hoek..its Crosby!

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07-13-2005, 03:41 PM
  #6
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We'll sign Crosby as an FA in the future.

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Old
07-13-2005, 04:03 PM
  #7
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My biggest concern is whether teams have the ability to trade during the season. If a team has a 37 million dollar payroll, how are they going to add anybody new during the season? mid-season trading is virtually non-existant in the NFL, which I hate.

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Old
07-13-2005, 06:19 PM
  #8
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Details are all here:

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature.asp?fid=7314

The Lightning will have a 1:48 chance at the top pick, or a hair less than 2.1% to land Sid Crosby. Washington and the Fecal Kitties also stuck at 2.1%. Atlanta and Carolina check in at 4.2%. Columbus, Buffalo, Pittsburgh and, of course, the Rangers (FIX!) have the best odds at 6.3% each.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/news_story.asp?id=130274

The draft lottery will be held July 21st when the CBA will be formally announced and ratified. The draft itself is scheduled to be held in less than two weeks on July 30th in Ottawa.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hocke...e-report_x.htm

As long as we get a pick in the top-20 we should be able to get a good forward according to Redline, which is what this organization desperately needs.

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Old
07-13-2005, 09:44 PM
  #9
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Is there a consensus #2 pick?

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07-13-2005, 10:24 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boltprospects
As long as we get a pick in the top-20 we should be able to get a good forward according to Redline, which is what this organization desperately needs.
That's all I really care about, I'm not expecting much, but top 20 would be nice!

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07-13-2005, 10:32 PM
  #11
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Is there a consensus #2 pick?
C Benoit Pouliot is the closest thing to one. He is considered a poor man's Marleau or Lecavalier. But other people tout D Jack Johnson, who is considered Rob Blake v.2 (but so was Mike Komisarek a few year's back, I always take the d-man comparisons with a grain of salt). Finally, Redline has C Gilbert Brule as their #2... he's a Roenick type player.

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07-13-2005, 10:36 PM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boltprospects
C Benoit Pouliot is the closest thing to one. He is considered a poor man's Marleau or Lecavalier. But other people tout D Jack Johnson, who is considered Rob Blake v.2 (but so was Mike Komisarek a few year's back, I always take the d-man comparisons with a grain of salt). Finally, Redline has C Gilbert Brule as their #2... he's a Roenick type player.
I think Johnson has a much better chance of becoming the next Phaneuf than Komisarek. Albeit Phaneuf hasn't stepped on NHL ice, but you should get the idea.

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07-13-2005, 11:20 PM
  #13
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Cross posted from SSN:

Now that the lottery format is set I ran the simulator 100 times according to the rules and these were the results.

Overall the Lightning got the pick exactly once in the entire simulation, and that was on the final attempt... so on that count the simulation underperformed the Lightning's 2% odds.

The Lightning ended up with the last pick in the draft on 6% of the attempts.

Overall the average pick from the 100 attempts was 18.47.

54% of the attempts the Lightning ended up with picks 20-30.
26% of the attempts the Lightning ended up with picks 10-19.
18% of the attempts the Lightning ended up with picks 1-9.

The two most frequent results at 7% of the attempts each were picks 28 and 21.

The most infrequent result was pick 7 which occured 0% of the time followed by picks 1,5 ,6, 10 and 14 which occured 1% of the time each.

http://members.shaw.ca/vorpalbunnies/draftsim/

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07-13-2005, 11:22 PM
  #14
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I think Johnson has a much better chance of becoming the next Phaneuf than Komisarek. Albeit Phaneuf hasn't stepped on NHL ice, but you should get the idea.
Phaneuf doesn't have the supposed offensive upside of Johnson.

Hey, it's not the silliest comparison under the sun. I remember when Ottawa drafted Berard they actually compared him to Bobby Orr.

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Old
07-14-2005, 09:20 AM
  #15
Anthony Mauro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boltprospects
Phaneuf doesn't have the supposed offensive upside of Johnson.

Hey, it's not the silliest comparison under the sun. I remember when Ottawa drafted Berard they actually compared him to Bobby Orr.
It's pretty awesome to not be able to compare a guy like Johnson to anyone. To mix Devils, a combo of Stevens and Niedermayer? Jeez, there just hasn't been much of a guy who loves to punish opposition but can still back up his bark with an extremely talented offensive skill set. Those Jack Skille remarks about his spin moves and his tricks tell it all.

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07-14-2005, 06:42 PM
  #16
CROMAG
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyersProspect2
Hmm, winning the Stanley Cup or have a better chance to have the first overall pick?
Hmm....how about both.

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Old
07-14-2005, 06:46 PM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoek
We've kinda been rewarded enough for our bad years don't you think? We'd have even more to show for it if it weren't for Dudley.
I don't know if I would say we've been rewarded enough. Sure we had what one could say was as close to a perfect season as could be hoped for, but overall, we had what, 2 good seasons. This, opposed to how many utterly crappy seasons. Oh yeah, all but the 2 good ones.

I was just hoping that we might have a better chance than what is considered worst in the lottery to draft crosby. Just imagine, Richards, Lecavalier, and Crosby. Talk about the Rimouski connection.

However, I would definately be happy if we can pick in the top 10, because I think there is some really legit talent there.

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Old
07-14-2005, 07:26 PM
  #18
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I guess I'll be happy if we pick any higher than 30th. If this season had been played we hopefully would have been picking 27-30 anyway.

We had a top 5 pick in 1992, 1993, 1995, 1998, 1999 (traded), 2000 (traded), 2001, and 2002 (traded). We have been compensated enough. If they were screwed up then thats our fault, we shouldn't have a better chance at Crosby just because Dudley traded a top 5 pick for Kevin Freakin' Weekes.

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Old
07-14-2005, 09:57 PM
  #19
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IMO we have zero to complain about. Had the season been played we'd have easily won the division again and picked no higher than 23rd. Now we have a roughly 45% chance of picking in the top-20. That doesn't suck.

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Old
07-14-2005, 11:58 PM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CROMAG
I don't know if I would say we've been rewarded enough.
Well, they did win that big shiny trophy! We're talking about a team with (roughly) ten crappy seasons, some teams haven't won jack in a lot longer than ten years, I don't think we should be complaining really. We'll most likely be picking higher than we would have had we actually played. *cross fingers*

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Old
07-15-2005, 08:47 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boltprospects
IMO we have zero to complain about. Had the season been played we'd have easily won the division again and picked no higher than 23rd. Now we have a roughly 45% chance of picking in the top-20. That doesn't suck.
True, picking in the top 20 is better than picking 27-30, but I guess I am just not one of those people who assumes we would have finished best in our division. Granted, we should have, but you never know. There is also a chance we could have sustained numerous injuries and fallen apart (not likely), but since we didn't actually play a season we will never know. Guess I just have to hope that our good fortunes continue and we get to draft much better than our odds would predict. Lord knows this first round pick will be that much more important since we don't have a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

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Old
07-15-2005, 09:53 AM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sotnos
Well, they did win that big shiny trophy! We're talking about a team with (roughly) ten crappy seasons, some teams haven't won jack in a lot longer than ten years, I don't think we should be complaining really. We'll most likely be picking higher than we would have had we actually played. *cross fingers*
I think the Lightning have already won more cups than 14 or so franchises. So, I'm not complaining, but would love to win the lotto anyway.

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Old
07-15-2005, 12:20 PM
  #23
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Ideally I'd love that 16% or so chance of landing in the top-10 to pay off so we could get a guy like O'Marra.

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07-15-2005, 06:36 PM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boltprospects
Ideally I'd love that 16% or so chance of landing in the top-10 to pay off so we could get a guy like O'Marra.
Anyone one of Brule, Pouliot, Latendresse, Ryan, Johnson, Kopitar, Bourret, Skille, Zagrapan, Bergfors, Cogliano, or McArdle would make me extremely happy. One or 2 of these guys might actually be available even if we pick in the last 3rd of the 1st round.

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Old
07-19-2005, 06:00 PM
  #25
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The results of the lottery are apparently slated to be released at 4pm Friday.

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