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Even-Strength Save Percentage

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Old
01-07-2012, 01:30 PM
  #1
quoipourquoi
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Even-Strength Save Percentage

Having caught a lot of New Jersey Devils games in which a defensive breakdown on the powerplay has led to a shorthanded breakaway against Brodeur, I can't help but feel that Brodeur's overall save percentage isn't exactly the most flattering representation of his play. After discovering that he has been beaten on 8 of 23 shots (EDIT: correction) in those situations, I thought about doing a more thorough look at the isolation of even-strength save percentage for notable goaltenders.

Obviously being able to make some big stops in a special teams situation is in itself quite the accomplishment, but the removal of those higher-percentage chances (that occur more often for some goaltenders than others) might give us an interesting perspective. For instance, would you believe that James Reimer (overall .900) and Josh Harding (overall .935) have the same even-strength save percentage this year? The difference is that Reimer gets absolutely abused behind the Leafs' league-worst penalty killing system.

Here are the lists from each season of our current century with Vezina candidates and notable goaltenders of the year/time:

They are sorted by their even-strength numbers, with their overall save percentage in parenthesis.

1999-00
Joseph: .924 (.915)
Roy: .923 (.914)
Hasek : .923 (.919)
Kolzig : .922 (.917)
Belfour: .922 (.919)
Turek: .922 (.912)
Brodeur: .912 (.910)

2000-01
Cechmanek: .932 (.921)
Giguere: .930 (.911)
Roy: .925 (.913)
Hasek: .924 (.921)
Joseph: .923 (.915)
Brodeur: .919 (.906)
Belfour: .917 (.905)

2001-02
Roy: .934 (.925)
Theodore: .931 (.931)
Burke: .930 (.920)
Giguere: .929 (.920)
Hasek: .925 (.915)
Brodeur: .917 (.906)
Joseph: .916 (.906)
Belfour: .907 (.895)

2002-03
Turco: .940 (.932)
Roy: .933 (.920)
Belfour: .924 (.922)
Giguere: .923 (.920)
Brodeur: .921 (.914)
Joseph: .919 (.912)

2003-04
Kiprusoff: .941 (.933)
Luongo: .937 (.931)
Belfour: .928 (.918)
Brodeur: .924 (.917)
Giguere: .921 (.914)
Joseph: .913 (.909)

2005-06
Vokoun: .941 (.919)
Kiprusoff: .941 (.923)
Hasek: .939 (.925)
Giguere: .933 (.911)
Lundqvist: .929 (.922)
Luongo: .926 (.914)
Thomas: .925 (.917)
Brodeur: .922 (.911)

2006-07
Kiprusoff: .932 (.917)
Hasek: .932 (.913)
Lundqvist: .931 (.917)
Vokoun: .931 (.920)
Luongo: .928 (.921)
Brodeur: .927 (.922)
Giguere: .926 (.918)
Thomas: .920 (.905)

2007-08
Giguere: .940 (.922)
Thomas: .933 (.921)
Leclaire: .930 (.919)
Luongo: .929 (.917)
Brodeur: .928 (.920)
Hasek: .928 (.902)
Vokoun: .927 (.919)
Lundqvist: .922 (.912)
Kiprusoff: .919 (.906)
Nabokov: .918 (.910)

2008-09
Thomas: .940 (.933)
Luongo: .936 (.920)
Vokoun: .935 (.926)
Brodeur: .933 (.916)
Rinne: .926 (.917)
Mason: .925 (.916)
Backstrom: .923 (.923)
Lundqvist: .920 (.916)

2009-10
Vokoun: .937 (.925)
Rask: .937 (.931)
Halak: .933 (.924)
Hiller: .930 (.918)
Lundqvist: .929 (.921)
Miller: .928 (.929)
Bryzgalov: .928 (.920)
Luongo: .925 (.913)
Rinne: .925 (.911)
Brodeur: .924 (.916)

2010-11
Thomas: .947 (.938)
Luongo: .934 (.928)
Rinne: .932 (.930)
Price: .931 (.923)
Bryzgalov: .931 (.921)
Hiller: .931 (.924)
Lundqvist: .930 (.923)


Interesting note: Of the Vezina winners of this century, only Tim Thomas (2009 and 2011) led all starting goaltenders in even-strength save percentage.


EDIT: So this doesn't get derailed further, this post isn't about Brodeur's 2011. All I said is that his statistics were the reason I looked up even-strength save percentages in the first place.


Last edited by quoipourquoi: 01-07-2012 at 04:41 PM.
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01-07-2012, 01:52 PM
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Thanks for putting that together.

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01-07-2012, 02:04 PM
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Very neat list. I've been on the bandwagon for ES Sv% for a long time now. It also shows what I've been arguing for for a long time: that Vokoun deserves a couple Vezinas.


I've also pondered the splits between Hasek's ES and normal save percentage numbers in his 40s. My theory is that his declining mobility made him more vulnerable on the PK, even as he remained an elite ES goalie.

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01-07-2012, 02:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GuineaPig View Post
I've also pondered the splits between Hasek's ES and normal save percentage numbers in his 40s. My theory is that his declining mobility made him more vulnerable on the PK, even as he remained an elite ES goalie.
I think the same thing, especially given his 2007-08 numbers where he had the worst save percentage among starters when his team was on the penalty kill despite Osgood having one of the better numbers in the league that year.

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01-07-2012, 03:25 PM
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ok, wait... ES save% makes Brodeur look better? I am perplexed.

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01-07-2012, 03:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
Here are the lists from each season of our current century with Vezina candidates and notable goaltenders of the year/time:
Interesting. I think the stats are a bit too high. I don't mean erroneous, but that some goalies are a bit too hard to beat during ES play. I'm among those thinking it has become a bit too difficult to score during ES play.

Where did you find the data? How did you compile it? Have you done it for all goalies?
Edit: Now I notice it's available at nhl.com.



The last days I've been thinking a bit more than usual about goalies' effect on stats in general. I don't think I've ever seen standings or GA adjusted to make up for Save Percentage. I don't think one should necessarily adjust all the way, so that the adjusted GA would correspond 100 % to shots against, but some kind of adjustment would be interesting.
Goalies affect +/- too, especially regarding GA (of course). For example, Boston are great during ES, but how much of that is thanks to their goalies? How much are the Boston players' great +/- helped by their goalies?

Yesterday, I discovered that Minnesota were the best PK team (per PK minute played) during the last 8 seasons (followed by Detroit), always being above average. Minnesota??!? Save Percentage was 6 times out of 8 above average, and only one time below (and one time being average). They were only 13th best when it came to prevent opponents from shooting, but compensated by having the best Save Percentage.
Is it mainly thanks to Backstrom (their goalie) and his goalie partners being great at saving PP shots? Nick Schultz? Greg Zanon? Kim Johnsson? Martin Skoula? Mikko Koivu? Filip Kuba? (To name some of the leading SH icetime guys on the team.)


Last edited by plusandminus: 01-07-2012 at 04:08 PM.
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01-07-2012, 04:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
ok, wait... ES save% makes Brodeur look better? I am perplexed.
I'm confused. It should Brodeur look worse, because the Devils consistently took many less penalties than average.

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01-07-2012, 04:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
ok, wait... ES save% makes Brodeur look better? I am perplexed.
When you remove the 23 shorthanded shots (New Jersey on the powerplay) that the Devils have given up, his .888 jumps up to a .897. Like I said, the observation itself was the inspiration behind the research, so try to take a little more from the post than just that.

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