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Old
01-25-2012, 11:35 PM
  #76
Sinurgy
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3rd rounder
I do have to give you credit rt, unlike the vast majority of HF'ers, you typically underestimate your teams players trade value. While a Leafs fan would expect a top 10 first rounder for Morris, you say a 3rd rounder. This leads me to believe his actual value is somewhere in the 25-40 region.

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01-25-2012, 11:46 PM
  #77
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Not too many teams in the West that I'd feel comfortable dealing with, as most teams that we could work with are not obvious sellers and I don't want to wind up losing a deal to a team that plays its way in...

Colorado only seems to have Statsny, but that will cost quite a bit, Langkow and picks/prospects

That seems to be one of the only reasonable deals out there, if you call it reasonable to offer that to COL

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01-25-2012, 11:48 PM
  #78
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As far as Jets players, that big 6'5" young forward would look good in a Yotes jersey....


Last edited by mouser: 01-26-2012 at 11:49 AM. Reason: qdp
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01-25-2012, 11:55 PM
  #79
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Sorry - Roenick. There was some chatter on NBC Sports tonight, and he said that the contract is long, but at $5.2 million per year, he could see it happening. Like I said, take it for what it is worth...
That's what I keep saying about the contract. People keep talking about the length but it's the budget per year Maloney has to stay under and Carter's yearly # isn't bad for the production. We could easily send enough money back to make it a wash. We have plenty of pass first forwards to play with him too. Throw in the soft media and strong personalities like Doan and Whitney and I could see him doing well here. Unless Columbus fires their GM though, he's going to want a strong package to save face on that trade. No way we get him below value.

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01-26-2012, 12:23 AM
  #80
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That's what I keep saying about the contract. People keep talking about the length but it's the budget per year Maloney has to stay under and Carter's yearly # isn't bad for the production. We could easily send enough money back to make it a wash. We have plenty of pass first forwards to play with him too. Throw in the soft media and strong personalities like Doan and Whitney and I could see him doing well here. Unless Columbus fires their GM though, he's going to want a strong package to save face on that trade. No way we get him below value.
The only money that we have to send back that would make it a wash and would be appealing to Columbus would be Yandle, Hanzal and Vrbata. All the rest of the money is tied up in aging UFA's with NTC's.

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01-26-2012, 12:42 AM
  #81
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The only money that we have to send back that would make it a wash and would be appealing to Columbus would be Yandle, Hanzal and Vrbata. All the rest of the money is tied up in aging UFA's with NTC's.
Cal-O, Pyatt and one of our vet defensemen gets it pretty close. Not sure how Morris's limited NTC works but I'm sure Maloney can make it work with the tradeable bodies we have, even if he has to send one of the vets somewhere else for a pick. The biggest part will be getting them to agree on the good assets we are willing to give up.

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01-26-2012, 08:24 AM
  #82
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If we don't pick up 70% of our remaining points, we won't qualify.

Keeping up that pace over thirty two games is EXTREMELY unlikely.

It's like going into the third period down by two goals.

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01-26-2012, 08:41 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by rt View Post
If we don't pick up 70% of our remaining points, we won't qualify.

Keeping up that pace over thirty two games is EXTREMELY unlikely.

It's like going into the third period down by two goals.
The teams are so bunched up that 4 or 5 face the same dilemma. Not all can win 70% of their remaining games and some teams will cancel each other out. I see us as having to win 70% of the 4 point games, not 70% of all remaining games.

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01-26-2012, 08:43 AM
  #84
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As far as Jets players, that big 6'5" young forward would look good in a Yotes jersey....
I want fast and skilled rather than big and bulky. Kessel over Bertuzzi.

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01-26-2012, 09:07 AM
  #85
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The teams are so bunched up that 4 or 5 face the same dilemma. Not all can win 70% of their remaining games and some teams will cancel each other out. I see us as having to win 70% of the 4 point games, not 70% of all remaining games.
No. 70% of remaining POINTS gets us 97. You can't expect to earn 96 and get in. You might pull it off, but it isn't likely. 97 is the number to shoot for if you want 8th seed.

Earning 70% of possible points over thirty two games is crazy difficult.

As a matter of fact, there is only one team in the NHL with a P% of .70 or higher right now, and that's the Rangers. Boston and Detroit have 68% and 67% respectively. If we were to pick up 65% in the final 32 that would be just 41 points, which gives us just 93 points on the year. 93 points does not get you into the playoffs.

Not in the last few years, anyway.

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01-26-2012, 09:19 AM
  #86
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I guess ultimately my point is this, of we collect 70% of possible points between now and the deadline we should make a run, but if we continue sputtering along at 52%, we need to sell, sell, sell. Hell, even if we enjoy an improvement on our pace to date and rack up 59% of points between now and the deadline, we STILL need to throw in the towel.

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01-26-2012, 11:29 AM
  #87
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Originally Posted by rt View Post
I guess ultimately my point is this, of we collect 70% of possible points between now and the deadline we should make a run, but if we continue sputtering along at 52%, we need to sell, sell, sell. Hell, even if we enjoy an improvement on our pace to date and rack up 59% of points between now and the deadline, we STILL need to throw in the towel.
I believe this is the way to go as well. We have some valuable pieces in the last year of their contracts that could bring back draft picks in a deep draft. Or maybe we dump all the vets for picks/prospects just before the deadline and then see if we can put together a package of futures Columbus would be interested in. We have the bottom 6 and defense to make a run next year. We need a top line and possibly a young goalie ready to compete with Smith now. I say make a run at Scheider (Doan?) or Carter (futures?). If we don't have a shot at one of them, sell off as many of Pyatt, Langkow, Morris, Rozy, Aucoin, Whitney and Doan as possible. We can always bring back Doan and Whitney after the season while letting them make a run at the cup.

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01-26-2012, 06:44 PM
  #88
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My guess is 93 or 94 points will be enough to get in this year based on how this year is shaping up.

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01-26-2012, 06:49 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by knowsthegame View Post
My guess is 93 or 94 points will be enough to get in this year based on how this year is shaping up.
That'll take 65% of all remaining points. Better do 70% in the twelve games leading up to the deadline.

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01-26-2012, 07:14 PM
  #90
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We have the oldest team in the league. We need to sell off vets and get young guns. You can ALWAYS sign veterans and pluggers as free agents. Trouble is our vets (except Doan and Whitney) won't garner us much in a trade.

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Old
01-26-2012, 07:46 PM
  #91
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Some of our vets would not bring us much such as Pyatt and even Rozi and Morris may not bring a lot but it would be nice if we could snag a few good draft picks with some of them.

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Old
01-26-2012, 08:12 PM
  #92
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Just to put the playoff hunt in perspective, it typically takes 96+ points to make the playoffs in the West. The Coyotes have 52 points in 50 games. That means in their remaining 32 games they would need to get 44 points. That would equate to winning 22 and only losing 10, or just a shade under 70% of their games as RT said.

I'm willing to bet at no point this season did the Coyotes win 22 of 32 consecutive games, so there is nothing to make me believe that will change at this point. Their best consectuvie 32 game streak occurred at game 3-35 of the season where they generated 38 points, or an equivalent of 19 wins and 13 losses. The pace the team is playing at right now they are more likely to get 29-30 points in their last 32 games for a record of 15-17.

The team is a seller, the franchise is a seller. It's a bitter end to the team in the Valley.

I know it's unlikely, but if Doan is going to be traded at the deadline I would love it if they announced in advance that this is Shane Doan's last game for the Phoenix Coyotes. That would essentially be like admitting the team is moving so they won't do it. However, it would be a bright spot to cheer for Doan knowing it's his last game in the desert like that.

I suspect all of the vets at the end of their contracts will be jettisoned at the deadline. There are key parts in place to move the team forward with the young core of Hanzal, Yandle, OEL, Boedker, etc. There are a couple of key vets like Gordon who will help the team transition. Realistically that is what the team should be doing regardless at this point, because it's not worth going on a hot streak to exit in the first round for nothing.

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Old
01-26-2012, 09:15 PM
  #93
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Not 70% of GAMES. That would put us in first place in the Conference.

70% of POINTS. Big difference. Still an extremely long shot.

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01-26-2012, 09:16 PM
  #94
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That's why the next 6 games are so crucial, first 4 at home, and the last two on the road - if we can sit at 6 points after the first 4, we play a little looser, and 8-10 points isn't ouf the question, with another stretch of home games coming up...

This is when we find out if we are buyers, sellers, or worse - floaters in the water of the Western Conference...

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01-26-2012, 09:23 PM
  #95
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In a perfect world, I would love to see Maloney surprise the hell out of us and acquire big names. Go hard or go to go home. Even if we end up moving to Quebec, grab enough talent to make it a convincing team to follow while we're still the Coyotes.

To:
Lauri Korpikoski
Ray Whitney
7th Rounder

To:
Alex Semin

First line winger booked.



To: Columbus Blue Jackets
Gormley
Roszival (salary)
3rd Rounder

To:
Jeff Carter

Done.

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Old
01-26-2012, 09:47 PM
  #96
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What would be the price for Umberger? Is that a better chance of Pyatt and a 2nd?

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01-26-2012, 09:56 PM
  #97
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What would be the price for Umberger? Is that a better chance of Pyatt and a 2nd?
No way they would accept that.

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01-26-2012, 10:05 PM
  #98
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Originally Posted by BUX7PHX View Post
That's why the next 6 games are so crucial, first 4 at home, and the last two on the road - if we can sit at 6 points after the first 4, we play a little looser, and 8-10 points isn't ouf the question, with another stretch of home games coming up...

This is when we find out if we are buyers, sellers, or worse - floaters in the water of the Western Conference...
Actually it's 5 of the next 6 at home. We need a huge streak like 9 of those 12 points to have a good shot at the playoffs. Can't see that happening. Ducks, Sharks, Red Wings, Flames and Blackhawks at home. Stars on the Road and that's a back to back after the Red Wings here. Ducks, Flames and Stars are competing for essentially the same playoff spot with us.

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01-26-2012, 10:47 PM
  #99
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In a perfect world, I would love to see Maloney surprise the hell out of us and acquire big names. Go hard or go to go home. Even if we end up moving to Quebec, grab enough talent to make it a convincing team to follow while we're still the Coyotes.

To:
Lauri Korpikoski
Ray Whitney
7th Rounder

To:
Alex Semin

First line winger booked.



To: Columbus Blue Jackets
Gormley
Roszival (salary)
3rd Rounder

To:
Jeff Carter

Done.
Semin is a pending UFA. Carter is a malcontent. I doubt either player would want to he here. Semin might sign in QC if they bring back Radulov and another Russian or two, but I doubt he'd play his heart out for Phoenix. Carter wouldn't be any happier in either PHX or QC than he was about being sent to Columbus.

Whitney gets us a first or second. Korpikoski is a good asset and Gormley is the best amateur defensemen in the world.

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Old
01-27-2012, 01:52 AM
  #100
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Semin is a pending UFA. Carter is a malcontent. I doubt either player would want to he here. Semin might sign in QC if they bring back Radulov and another Russian or two, but I doubt he'd play his heart out for Phoenix. Carter wouldn't be any happier in either PHX or QC than he was about being sent to Columbus.
Which is exactly why there's a good chance Semin would play his heart out, it's a contract year.

Carter was pissy about being getting kicked to the curb by Philly without so much as a hint and after signing a long term contract. It's unlikely he'd have the same reaction to leaving Columbus. It would be wise to talk with him before making any deals (see Jokinen, Olli) but I don't think the Philly fiasco is any indication of how it would be for Phoenix.

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