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Carter/Richards production vs. new guys

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Old
02-04-2012, 10:05 PM
  #226
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The bottom line is we easily won the Carter trade...we won that on draft day and Couts alone will be a better overall player then Carts and he is plenty younger...

The Richards trade will take some time to figure out....many people on HF were gloating that we were robbed...I didn't think so and I certainly do not think so now.....right now it is a fairly even trade....and the sky is the limit for Schenn.....if he realizes his potential, we win easily....that of course remains to be seen!

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02-04-2012, 10:40 PM
  #227
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zarley zelepukin View Post
You're also assuming some things that I don't agree with. For example, that the two players would have suffered similar injuries/decline had they stayed in Philly. Imo, you're putting way too much stock into the 75 injury affected games they've played combined this year and not enough into the nearly 1000 games they've combined for in their careers. It's too early to consider them washed up, especially Richards, who has no significant injury history and was around a ppg this year before his concussion.

The team last year dominated Buffalo throughout the course of most of those games. The only reason it went 7 was because of the goaltending. Against Boston, yes, they were terrible as a team. It was a bad series, against a really good team- and happened just one year removed from being in the finals. Did the club have to be blown up based on that? No, I don't believe so.
I thought I would point out a few things...

- Mike Richards was never consistent offensively. Even as a Flyer he was a player who would have amazingly hot streaks and then amazingly cold streaks. Last season before the all star break Richards had 47 points in 50 games. After the break he had 19 points in 31. The cup run Richards had 21 points in 17 games before the Cup Finals. In the Cup Finals Richards had 1 goal, 1 assist and was a -7 in 6 games. Along with Carter who mirrored his stats but was a -6 he was the worst forward on the ice. While he was hurt if you go by his history the cold slump is just history repeating.

Richards is a 2nd line center on most NHL teams. Though I don't consider him washed up I feel Flyers fans overrated him when he was a Flyer since they had on Flyers goggles.

- The Flyers record as a team post all star break was the 3rd worst of all NHL teams, the Flyers only kept such a high rank because they were so far ahead in first place before hand. Keep in mind the Sabres were the 7th seed also so going 7 games with them is not so impressive and no the goaltending was not the reason the Sabres took the Flyers 7 games. Yes, the goalies had early meltdowns in 3 of the 7 games but keep in mind the Flyers won 2 of those 3 games and in the game they lost they still went into OT with the game only being 3-3.

Brian Boucher's Stats:
Games: 6
Starts: 5
Save Percentage: .934

Plus I should mention the Bruins were not a powerhouse in that cup run. The Bruins played 4 teams. This is how long each series went..

Bruins vs. Canadiens - 7 games
Bruins vs. Flyers - 4 games
Bruins vs. Lightning - 7 games
Bruins vs. Canucks - 7 games

The Flyers were the only team that didn't give the Bruins a fight. They lost each game by the scores of 7-3, 5-1, 5-1, and 3-2. Only 1 game was actually close and the Flyers led that game 2-0 before they choked that lead away.

The Flyers were a joke to end the season.

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02-04-2012, 11:02 PM
  #228
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Originally Posted by Guffaw View Post
They've been without Pronger all year and gotten horrible goaltending. The only reason they have the 6th best record right now is because of the deals.

Also, where was the Carter/Richards team the 2nd half of last year and in the playoffs? In the toilet. Horrible 2nd half and struggled badly against a depleted Sabres team with half our talent before getting embarrassed by Boston. The team that ended the season last year was not a contender.

Your formulating opinions based on incomplete information. A well respected GM made the moves based on having a phone book of information from players/coaches on attitude, behavior, locker room dynamic. You have a pamphlet of assumptions. IMO no one on here is qualified to "disagree" with the trades simply bc they don't have the information required to come to said conclusions.
This is not incomplete information, these are facts:

Of the 31 teams who lose in the Finals since 1980 (when the WHA joined the NHL), 11 made it back to the 2nd round. That's just the 2nd round. And in the 80's there was only 21 teams.

Since 1997, the 14 teams who lost in the Finals the year before, only 4 made it back to the 2nd round, and 3 of them were in the last 3 years. 4 misses the playoffs. The Flyers had an equal chance of missing the playoffs altogether than getting back to where they were. Which based on history, would have been an acceptable result.

The results say they were due to bounce, and they did as good as any tea that wasn't the 2009 Penguins since the last time the Flyers were in the finals.

Since 1995, 3 of the last 4 teams who did lose in the 2nd round were swept when they got there.

The point being that when you lose in the Finals, you're due to bounce the next season. That's the facts.


You say that we can't criticize the GM, the one chance we had in the Finals since 1997, if Holmgren would have made a simple trade for Dwayne Roloson, they would have won the Cup in 2010, and then would have been content with going with Bobrovsky instead of giving Bryzgalov an absolute retarded contract. Such a small difference between Mike Richards the villain and Mike Richards the immortalized.

And it's convenient you trash Carter and Richards for not putting away the Sabres early. We had absolutely abhorrent goaltending in 4 games, and the Sabres only managed to take 2 of them. Lucky Mike Richards was still around to help Ville Leino score an OT winner, and then he sets up Briere's PP goal in Game 7. With a bum wrist he played with the entire season.

This is not to say changes don't occur. The Senators, Oilers, Ducks, Sabres, and Hurricanes went overhauls for one reason or another. And Boston was on a mission against us last year. They were probably better than us in 2010, but we lucked out between us getting healthy, the Bruins getting more unhealthy. Boston was able to add a number of players to the ones they were already missing, while your gold-standard GM completely botched the 2010 off-season.

However, your blanketed criticism of these talentless, gutless core players came as close to winning the whole damn thing than any team since the Cup years, aside from 1987.

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02-04-2012, 11:28 PM
  #229
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Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
This is not incomplete information, these are facts:

Of the 31 teams who lose in the Finals since 1980 (when the WHA joined the NHL), 11 made it back to the 2nd round. That's just the 2nd round. And in the 80's there was only 21 teams.

Since 1997, the 14 teams who lost in the Finals the year before, only 4 made it back to the 2nd round, and 3 of them were in the last 3 years. 4 misses the playoffs. The Flyers had an equal chance of missing the playoffs altogether than getting back to where they were. Which based on history, would have been an acceptable result.

The results say they were due to bounce, and they did as good as any tea that wasn't the 2009 Penguins since the last time the Flyers were in the finals.

Since 1995, 3 of the last 4 teams who did lose in the 2nd round were swept when they got there.

The point being that when you lose in the Finals, you're due to bounce the next season. That's the facts.


You say that we can't criticize the GM, the one chance we had in the Finals since 1997, if Holmgren would have made a simple trade for Dwayne Roloson, they would have won the Cup in 2010, and then would have been content with going with Bobrovsky instead of giving Bryzgalov an absolute retarded contract. Such a small difference between Mike Richards the villain and Mike Richards the immortalized.

And it's convenient you trash Carter and Richards for not putting away the Sabres early. We had absolutely abhorrent goaltending in 4 games, and the Sabres only managed to take 2 of them. Lucky Mike Richards was still around to help Ville Leino score an OT winner, and then he sets up Briere's PP goal in Game 7. With a bum wrist he played with the entire season.

This is not to say changes don't occur. The Senators, Oilers, Ducks, Sabres, and Hurricanes went overhauls for one reason or another. And Boston was on a mission against us last year. They were probably better than us in 2010, but we lucked out between us getting healthy, the Bruins getting more unhealthy. Boston was able to add a number of players to the ones they were already missing, while your gold-standard GM completely botched the 2010 off-season.

However, your blanketed criticism of these talentless, gutless core players came as close to winning the whole damn thing than any team since the Cup years, aside from 1987.

Oh lord... this again. I thought you said you were posting facts.

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02-04-2012, 11:43 PM
  #230
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Oh lord... this again. I thought you said you were posting facts.
That was a new point....





...but it would have happened....

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02-04-2012, 11:51 PM
  #231
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Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
That was a new point....





...but it would have happened....


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02-05-2012, 04:57 AM
  #232
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Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
That was a new point....





...but it would have happened....
How can people possibly make such wild accusations.

The flyers didn't lose the first 3 games against boston because of poor goaltending. They got owned in every aspect of the game. What happens if we have a different keeper, do we still win that series.

Pull your head out. You can never make claims like that.

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02-05-2012, 07:38 AM
  #233
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Fact:

Simmonds 16G

Richards 14G

More production for 1/4 of the salary. Plus a top notch prospect.

Winning in todays NHL comes down to production per dollar spent. Right now, those that aren't fans of the Richards deal are losing that argument horribly. Fact.

To the rambling about goaltending not being the reason we lost the Bruins series. It was not the sole reason. Look at the two rosters. Do you really think Boston is that much better on paper from the goalie out? I don't. So now your talking heart, passion, team cohesiveness, paying the price for one another. A huge intangible undoubtedly affected by a locker room issue. I believe Richards and Carter combined for 1 goal last playoffs. 11 million for 1 goal in 2 series? That's acceptable?

Again, you don't trade the two faces of your franchise for strictly monetary reasons when you're a team that spends the cap every year. Think about it.

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02-05-2012, 08:18 AM
  #234
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Originally Posted by Spongolium View Post
How can people possibly make such wild accusations.

The flyers didn't lose the first 3 games against boston because of poor goaltending. They got owned in every aspect of the game. What happens if we have a different keeper, do we still win that series.

Pull your head out. You can never make claims like that.
Most of last season's mess in the playoffs was on Lavi. First, he overplayed the hell out of Bob all season. Notice he isn't doing that with Couturier which is good, he's learned a lesson, but it's worse with a goalie, especially one that had never played more than 35 games in a season, was new to the country, didn't know anyone here and didn't speak the language. He then screwed around repeatedly with Bob, Boosh and Leighton, Leighton for God's sake, who he put between the pipes in an elimination game vs Buffalo yet the guy wasn't good enoughto play for the team during the regular season!

Then vs Boston he repeatedly puts the Briere line up against Krejci's line even though they got destroyed. In the final 2 games with home ice advantage he never took advantage of having last change.

How was the team supposed to buy into his way of coaching when he screwed up so often? He has been around long enough and should have known better.

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02-05-2012, 09:20 AM
  #235
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Originally Posted by MsWoof View Post
Most of last season's mess in the playoffs was on Lavi. First, he overplayed the hell out of Bob all season. Notice he isn't doing that with Couturier which is good, he's learned a lesson, but it's worse with a goalie, especially one that had never played more than 35 games in a season, was new to the country, didn't know anyone here and didn't speak the language. He then screwed around repeatedly with Bob, Boosh and Leighton, Leighton for God's sake, who he put between the pipes in an elimination game vs Buffalo yet the guy wasn't good enoughto play for the team during the regular season!

Then vs Boston he repeatedly puts the Briere line up against Krejci's line even though they got destroyed. In the final 2 games with home ice advantage he never took advantage of having last change.

How was the team supposed to buy into his way of coaching when he screwed up so often? He has been around long enough and should have known better.
This this this this. Bob was absolutley gassed in the second half.

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02-05-2012, 09:33 AM
  #236
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This this this this. Bob was absolutley gassed in the second half.
Completely agree. That and teams got the book on him ie. shoot high.

Just my opinion, but his size and low crouch will limit his ultimate ability to stop pucks in this league. So many saves are simply due to the puck hitting goaltenders which is why the trend is 6'2" and up with ridiculous Michelin man upper body protection. Quickness doesn't help you on screen shots and most deflections. He just doesn't cover enough of the top of the net when he's in the butterfly.

Can he be good? Yes. A lights out top 5 goalie consistently? I don't see it. Ever. Obviously the Flyers don't either which is why they signed someone else.

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02-05-2012, 10:47 AM
  #237
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Originally Posted by Spongolium View Post
How can people possibly make such wild accusations.

The flyers didn't lose the first 3 games against boston because of poor goaltending. They got owned in every aspect of the game. What happens if we have a different keeper, do we still win that series.

Pull your head out. You can never make claims like that.
We should all get our heads out of our ***** since we're apparently talking about the Boston series in 2010, which makes sense since Jeff Carter didn't play in it.

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02-05-2012, 11:16 AM
  #238
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This is constantly a ******** argument over on the Kings boards.


People are comparing Simmonds production to Richards. And there are so many variables in it that you can't really compare it. But idiots still do it anyways.

A) Linemates
Richards is currently stuck with Jarret 'high and wide' Stoll, and Dustin 'Pancakes' Penner. Combined the two of them have 9 goals. Stoll has 1 goal in 17 games, Penner 2 in 24.

Simmonds is currently lining up with Rinaldo and Schenn, but he has played on a line with Read, Coturier, Briere, etc. etc. In short, he has had a lot more help the Richards.

B) Situational minutes
Simmonds for the first time is playing power play minutes. He is planting himself in front of the net on one of the best powerplays in the league, with the likes of Giroux, Hartnell, Jagr etc. etc. The Kings PP is meager. 21st in the league.

C) System
The Kings defense first system is smothering to offensive players. Severely smothering. The last 3-4 years they have finished near bottom of the league in team offense but make it up for top 5 finishes in the defensive aspect of the game. With more emphasis put on defense first, especially for a center, you're going to see his production slip. Look at the players who have come in and left from L.A. Ryan Smyth is a good example. He looked washed up and done. He had his lowest ever point total in a full season last year with L.A. but is on pace to break that in Edmonton. A year older, and on arguably a less talented team, but with a more wide open system. Ponikarovsky had only 5 goals and 15 points in 61 games last season and currently has 9 goals and 20 points in 54 games on Carolina, and New Jersey. Again, arguably less talented teams with better offensive systems. The Kings are incredibly stifling in terms of offense. The Flyers ARE NOT.

Richards production, realistically with the system L.A. has was going to slip, and Simmonds, obviously was going to increase.

D) Injuries
Simmonds has remained healthy. Richards had a concussion. One of the toughest injuries to recover from in hockey, and since his injury, his pace has dipped incredibly and many in L.A. have suspected he is playing injured.



It's for all these reasons I feel it is ENTIRELY not fair to compare the production of Simmonds to Richards.

If you want to compare VALUE. I think that is completely and 100% fair. And I think that it is almost equal at this point. Richards has brought a great depth to L.A.s center group, but also has brought forth a realization of deficiencies. While that is a bad thing, it's a blessing in disguise for L.A. who now needs to posture themselves for more skilled players to accompany Rick.

Simmonds has brought depth, and grit to the Flyers PP, and forward crew. And he is most definitely a valuable asset that can chip in offensively.

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02-05-2012, 11:24 AM
  #239
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Originally Posted by Jaygokings View Post
This is constantly a ******** argument over on the Kings boards.


People are comparing Simmonds production to Richards. And there are so many variables in it that you can't really compare it. But idiots still do it anyways.

A) Linemates
Richards is currently stuck with Jarret 'high and wide' Stoll, and Dustin 'Pancakes' Penner. Combined the two of them have 9 goals. Stoll has 1 goal in 17 games, Penner 2 in 24.

Simmonds is currently lining up with Rinaldo and Schenn, but he has played on a line with Read, Coturier, Briere, etc. etc. In short, he has had a lot more help the Richards.



B) Situational minutes
Simmonds for the first time is playing power play minutes. He is planting himself in front of the net on one of the best powerplays in the league, with the likes of Giroux, Hartnell, Jagr etc. etc. The Kings PP is meager. 21st in the league.

C) System
The Kings defense first system is smothering to offensive players. Severely smothering. The last 3-4 years they have finished near bottom of the league in team offense but make it up for top 5 finishes in the defensive aspect of the game. With more emphasis put on defense first, especially for a center, you're going to see his production slip. Look at the players who have come in and left from L.A. Ryan Smyth is a good example. He looked washed up and done. He had his lowest ever point total in a full season last year with L.A. but is on pace to break that in Edmonton. A year older, and on arguably a less talented team, but with a more wide open system. Ponikarovsky had only 5 goals and 15 points in 61 games last season and currently has 9 goals and 20 points in 54 games on Carolina, and New Jersey. Again, arguably less talented teams with better offensive systems. The Kings are incredibly stifling in terms of offense. The Flyers ARE NOT.

Richards production, realistically with the system L.A. has was going to slip, and Simmonds, obviously was going to increase.

D) Injuries
Simmonds has remained healthy. Richards had a concussion. One of the toughest injuries to recover from in hockey, and since his injury, his pace has dipped incredibly and many in L.A. have suspected he is playing injured.



It's for all these reasons I feel it is ENTIRELY not fair to compare the production of Simmonds to Richards.

If you want to compare VALUE. I think that is completely and 100% fair. And I think that it is almost equal at this point. Richards has brought a great depth to L.A.s center group, but also has brought forth a realization of deficiencies. While that is a bad thing, it's a blessing in disguise for L.A. who now needs to posture themselves for more skilled players to accompany Rick.

Simmonds has brought depth, and grit to the Flyers PP, and forward crew. And he is most definitely a valuable asset that can chip in offensively.
All the reasons you bring up are the reasons why Points/ stats are the worst way to compare and rate players.

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02-05-2012, 11:41 AM
  #240
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All the reasons you bring up are the reasons why Points/ stats are the worst way to compare and rate players.
How do you figure?

It's the only real objective way to rate a players performance. Everything else is subjective opinion which is inherently flawed due to bias.

Should you consider minutes played, linemates, pp time, stength of line that player is typically facing on the other team,intangibles? Absolutely. However much of that can be broken down by stats.

Stats don't tell it all, but what they do tell is objective. Facts if you will. Surely more valid than subjective opinion.

When an agent argues for a higher salary for his client does he say "my guy is great" or does he break down ppg, minutes played, +/- rating compared to similarly paid players? It's the latter.

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02-05-2012, 11:47 AM
  #241
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Mike Richards (859 minutes)
5.0 GVT, 3.4 PS

-26 years old
-$5.75 M cap hit (9 years)
-owed ~$51 M from start of 2011 season
-signed through 2020 season
-NTC


Wayne Simmonds (815 minutes)
4.0 GVT, 3.4 PS

-23 years old
-$1.75 M cap hit (2 years)
-owed $3.5 M from start of 2011 season
-RFA status expires July 1, 2015
-no clauses
-Brayden Schenn


I dreaded this trade at first, but is Mike Richards so much better than Wayne Simmonds that it negates all of these other advantages, many of which have long-term benefits? I would not undo the trade, that's for sure.

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02-05-2012, 11:52 AM
  #242
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Originally Posted by Guffaw View Post
How do you figure?

It's the only real objective way to rate a players performance. Everything else is subjective opinion which is inherently flawed due to bias.

Should you consider minutes played, linemates, pp time, stength of line that player is typically facing on the other team,intangibles? Absolutely. However much of that can be broken down by stats.

Stats don't tell it all, but what they do tell is objective. Facts if you will. Surely more valid than subjective opinion.

When an agent argues for a higher salary for his client does he say "my guy is great" or does he break down ppg, minutes played, +/- rating compared to similarly paid players? It's the latter.

When you play sports the objective is to win. And a player can do this in a variety of ways. Things can be done that do not show in the stat line. We also dont know the roles that the Coach has asked of his players. Im sure that coaches tell some players to play a certain way , whereas tell other players to play another way.


Bill james and Sabrematricians put alot of emphasis on OBP and they talk about how RBI's are overrated because a player cant control who gets on base for them. However it is much easier to hit a solo hr vs a 2 run hr for a variety of reasons, one of which is how the pitcher pitches. Pitchers will avoid fastballs in fastball counts because they know the risk of what a fastball presents to a powerhitter with someone on base. If a pitcher gives up a solo hr its no big deal , they move on. But its those mutirun HR's that really hurt them. So that is just an example of how overrated statistics are used. yes they can be used as a guide but not to give overall judgment on a player.

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02-05-2012, 12:01 PM
  #243
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Originally Posted by Jtown View Post
When you play sports the objective is to win. And a player can do this in a variety of ways. Things can be done that do not show in the stat line. We also dont know the roles that the Coach has asked of his players. Im sure that coaches tell some players to play a certain way , whereas tell other players to play another way.


Bill james and Sabrematricians put alot of emphasis on OBP and they talk about how RBI's are overrated because a player cant control who gets on base for them. However it is much easier to hit a solo hr vs a 2 run hr for a variety of reasons, one of which is how the pitcher pitches. Pitchers will avoid fastballs in fastball counts because they know the risk of what a fastball presents to a powerhitter with someone on base. If a pitcher gives up a solo hr its no big deal , they move on. But its those mutirun HR's that really hurt them. So that is just an example of how overrated statistics are used. yes they can be used as a guide but not to give overall judgment on a player.

There's a lot more complexity to Sabremetrics than replacing RBIs with OBP, and the flaws of RBI are much greater than the flaws of the stats that can replace it. RBIs are a team stat, a run environment stat and a lineup order stat just as much as they are a personal production stat (which is the fallacy in the way the stat is traditionally applied).

If you want to put the impact of a player's individual production at the plate into the context of scoring runs and winning games, Win Probability Added, Leverage Index and Run Expectancy Wins are all much more insightful than Runs Batted In.

/off topic

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02-05-2012, 12:08 PM
  #244
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
There's a lot more complexity to Sabremetrics than replacing RBIs with OBP, and the flaws of RBI are much greater than the flaws of the stats that can replace it. RBIs are a team stat, a run environment stat and a lineup order stat just as much as they are a personal production stat (which is the fallacy in the way the stat is traditionally applied).

If you want to put the impact of a player's individual production at the plate into the context of scoring runs and winning games, Win Probability Added, Leverage Index and Run Expectancy Wins are all much more insightful than Runs Batted In.

/off topic
Yes but what all those things dont take into consideration is how a pitcher pitches. Sabremetrics assumes that all pitches are fair game at all times in all situations and that is simply not the case. As a pitcher you have all your pitches in play for situations where there is no one on base. With runners on base your selction of pitches decrease considerably. With a man on second and bases loaded your location changes considerably.


it is these situations that statistics do not take into place

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02-05-2012, 12:20 PM
  #245
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All the reasons you bring up are the reasons why Points/ stats are the worst way to compare and rate players.
Lol I agree. I was so worked up over this I included my post in a BR article.


It's just so ****ing stupid that the fairweather fantasty stat watcher will come on the board (at least on the Kings side of it) and raise holy hell because "Simmonds has more goals on the Flyers. ****ING STUPID DEAN LOMBARDI WAS TRADE EVER WHAA WHAAA WHAAAA." In every single post.

People need to get a grip on reality and realize that the game isn't played in a vacuum and different teams with different players and systems yield different results from players. It's not science, it's kind of common sense.

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02-05-2012, 12:34 PM
  #246
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"Points and stats are a terrible way to evaluate a players talent."

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02-05-2012, 12:38 PM
  #247
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"Points and stats are a terrible way to evaluate a players talent."

- Tim Tebow
fixed

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02-05-2012, 01:02 PM
  #248
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Fact:

Simmonds 16G

Richards 14G

More production for 1/4 of the salary. Plus a top notch prospect.

Winning in todays NHL comes down to production per dollar spent. Right now, those that aren't fans of the Richards deal are losing that argument horribly. Fact.

To the rambling about goaltending not being the reason we lost the Bruins series. It was not the sole reason. Look at the two rosters. Do you really think Boston is that much better on paper from the goalie out? I don't. So now your talking heart, passion, team cohesiveness, paying the price for one another. A huge intangible undoubtedly affected by a locker room issue. I believe Richards and Carter combined for 1 goal last playoffs. 11 million for 1 goal in 2 series? That's acceptable?

Again, you don't trade the two faces of your franchise for strictly monetary reasons when you're a team that spends the cap every year. Think about it.
Just to throw it in there, I made a poll on the Kings' board not too long ago, and people voted Richards as their best forward (link). I like the trade we made, but let's not get overly ridiculous here.

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02-05-2012, 01:07 PM
  #249
Hockeypete49
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Completely agree. That and teams got the book on him ie. shoot high.

Just my opinion, but his size and low crouch will limit his ultimate ability to stop pucks in this league. So many saves are simply due to the puck hitting goaltenders which is why the trend is 6'2" and up with ridiculous Michelin man upper body protection. Quickness doesn't help you on screen shots and most deflections. He just doesn't cover enough of the top of the net when he's in the butterfly.

Can he be good? Yes. A lights out top 5 goalie consistently? I don't see it. Ever. Obviously the Flyers don't either which is why they signed someone else.
I like Bob. But that is the book on him. Plus he tends to shift on the deke and tends to get himself out of position on rebounds. The talent is there and he really works at improving his game. But unless the big dog falls flat on his face. Bob will only get in 25+ games a year.

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02-05-2012, 01:37 PM
  #250
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Stat of the season:

Jeff Carter has 4 hits all season.

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fixed
Bahaha, Winning.

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