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Ondrej Pavelec and Why a Buyout is the Next Logical Step

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Old
02-04-2014, 03:31 PM
  #1
truck
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Ondrej Pavelec and Why a Buyout is the Next Logical Step

Title is pretty self-explanitory. Math. Numbers and solutions.


Quote:
The biggest reason the Winnipeg Jets need to buyout Ondrej Pavelec has to do with opportunity cost. Over the last two seasons, the team's marriage to Ondrej has prevented them from looking for other viable solutions to their goaltending woes.

Ondrej Pavelec has never been a good NHL goalie and even before he signed his current 5 year contract he was unlikely to improve. Whether or not the poor play is a surprise, the team can't continue to repeat the error.

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2014/...y-of-a-buy-out

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02-04-2014, 03:44 PM
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Love to hear if you get any feedback from anyone connected to the org.

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02-04-2014, 03:59 PM
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cheswick
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The premise that you have to buy him out cause the team's mangement has been too mariried to him to look elsewhere doesn't quite make sense to me. If they are too married to him to look elsewhere why woudl they buy him out? and if they aren't married to him and are willing to buy him out why couldn't they look elsewhere before that.

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02-04-2014, 04:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cheswick View Post
The premise that you have to buy him out cause the team's mangement has been too mariried to him to look elsewhere doesn't quite make sense to me. If they are too married to him to look elsewhere why woudl they buy him out? and if they aren't married to him and are willing to buy him out why couldn't they look elsewhere before that.
The premise is:

Being married to him has cost the team.
They need to give up and move on.
...or else it will continue to cost the team.

Eventually, you have to cut bait.


EDIT


There should be a tipping point. That tipping point should be now.

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02-04-2014, 04:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cheswick View Post
The premise that you have to buy him out cause the team's mangement has been too mariried to him to look elsewhere doesn't quite make sense to me. If they are too married to him to look elsewhere why woudl they buy him out? and if they aren't married to him and are willing to buy him out why couldn't they look elsewhere before that.
Weren't they widely believed to be heavy in the Ratna sp sweepstakes last year? Seems to me they are looking at there options. Having said that we should buy him out this summer.

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02-04-2014, 04:05 PM
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Gm0ney
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I actually kind of worry about this idea that this is Pavelec's last chance. He could put together a good run and suddenly change everyone's mind? This off-season is the last opportunity for a compliance buy-out and it must be done.

I was at Friday's game and Pavelec's intro cheer was the most muted I'd ever heard for him. I don't think the fans will be storming TNSE's offices with pitchforks and torches if they decide to cut him loose this year...

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02-04-2014, 04:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
I actually kind of worry about this idea that this is Pavelec's last chance. He could put together a good run and suddenly change everyone's mind? This off-season is the last opportunity for a compliance buy-out and it must be done.

I was at Friday's game and Pavelec's intro cheer was the most muted I'd ever heard for him. I don't think the fans will be storming TNSE's offices with pitchforks and torches if they decide to cut him loose this year...
I worry about that too.

I hope they are above small sample sizes, but one never knows.

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02-04-2014, 04:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
The premise is:

Being married to him has cost the team.
They need to give up and move on.
...or else it will continue to cost the team.

Eventually, you have to cut bait.


EDIT


There should be a tipping point. That tipping point should be now.

I just hope the divorce between Pavs/Jets doesn't turn into a nasty custody battle for Frolik! Or put it this way, I'd sign Frolik before I begin to think about showing Pavs the door.

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02-04-2014, 04:25 PM
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I wonder if Frolik being here has any impact on what(if anything) they do with Pavs.

Also, I now expect a lights-out performance tonight by him.

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02-04-2014, 04:27 PM
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Originally Posted by PaperRockChamp View Post
I wonder if Frolik being here has any impact on what(if anything) they do with Pavs.

Also, I now expect a lights-out performance tonight by him.
He is due for one after being garbage 3 times in a row.

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02-04-2014, 04:31 PM
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Originally Posted by sipowicz View Post
I just hope the divorce between Pavs/Jets doesn't turn into a nasty custody battle for Frolik! Or put it this way, I'd sign Frolik before I begin to think about showing Pavs the door.
Re-signing Frolik is a must. Hopefully this is not dependent on Pavelec.

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02-04-2014, 04:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
I actually kind of worry about this idea that this is Pavelec's last chance. He could put together a good run and suddenly change everyone's mind? This off-season is the last opportunity for a compliance buy-out and it must be done.

I was at Friday's game and Pavelec's intro cheer was the most muted I'd ever heard for him. I don't think the fans will be storming TNSE's offices with pitchforks and torches if they decide to cut him loose this year...
I am just so fearful of that as well. Fearful enough that I'm reaching the point where I'll almost cheer for him to have bad games. After all, management doesn't appear to be too worried about putting a crappy goalie in game after game and "hoping" we can score more goals than Pavs gives up. If management doesn't care whether we win or lose (in essence giving up on another golden opportunity to make the playoffs), why should I care if we lose a game or two we should have won either?

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02-04-2014, 05:09 PM
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I would love to see this published in the Free Press. Just sit back and watch all the fair weather fans freak out!

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02-04-2014, 05:29 PM
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The jets are on a fixed budget.... So buying him out does not mean we will have 3.9 mil extra to spend on other players. The buyout portion will still count against the teams internal cap. So we sign a replacement goalie for one million per year and that will pretty much eat up our savings on Pav. If you will be happy with spending 2 mil next year at the goalie position for starter and backup then a buyout is a possible solution.


Last edited by SCP Guy: 02-04-2014 at 05:50 PM.
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02-04-2014, 05:42 PM
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I've said this before, but I'm a Pavs supporter, but I don't think any goalie should be signed to multiple years at a high price. Goalies are easy enough to find, no need spending multi millions over multiple years. I'd be fine with buying out Pav and signing Montoya for two years $5-6M.

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02-04-2014, 06:05 PM
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It's during situations like this that I wish Mike Milbury was still the GM on Long Island - I'm fairly certain that a trade could be made with Mad Mike to dump Pavelec, and all of his salary, to the Islanders. Damn.

Man, the TNSE executives have got to be kicking themselves for not making a move for Khudobin - he was one of the better choices during the off-season, and look what he's accomplished this past month.

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02-04-2014, 06:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SCP Guy View Post
The jets are on a fixed budget.... So buying him out does not mean we will have 3.9 mil extra to spend on other players. The buyout portion will still count against the teams internal cap. So we sign a replacement goalie for one million per year and that will pretty much eat up our savings on Pav. If you will be happy with spending 2 mil next year at the goalie position for starter and backup then a buyout is a possible solution.
Savings would be negligible. Said as much in the article.

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02-04-2014, 06:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Savings would be negligible. Said as much in the article.
Yup saw that...... Think that makes it pretty unrealistic we pay him to go away... Might as well keep him as part of a platoon since I don't think we will be a team right up against the cap. I do agree he is overpaid but we are stuck with the deal.

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02-04-2014, 08:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Re-signing Frolik is a must. Hopefully this is not dependent on Pavelec.
My theory is if you see Frolik re-signed before the compliance buyout period closes Pavelec will be bought out. Chevy doesn't seem to sign his RFAs before free agency.

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02-04-2014, 08:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SCP Guy View Post
The jets are on a fixed budget.... So buying him out does not mean we will have 3.9 mil extra to spend on other players. The buyout portion will still count against the teams internal cap. So we sign a replacement goalie for one million per year and that will pretty much eat up our savings on Pav. If you will be happy with spending 2 mil next year at the goalie position for starter and backup then a buyout is a possible solution.
Spending 2 mil at goalie would probably yield better results than what Pavelec gives us.

At the same time, there are savings because we don't have to pay out the full contract and get to spread it out over 6 seasons. We save about 3 million a season for 3 years (plenty of cash to pay for a good UFA goalie), then pay about 1.5 extra for 3 years.

Plenty left to spend properly in goal.

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02-04-2014, 08:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Savings would be negligible. Said as much in the article.
#NoOneReadsTheArticles

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02-04-2014, 08:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Title is pretty self-explanitory. Math. Numbers and solutions.





http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2014/...y-of-a-buy-out
I am BroInWhyteridge and I endorse this message.

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02-04-2014, 09:18 PM
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Joe Hallenback
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Is there any reason why they can't sign say Griess or Khudobin as an UFA and look to move Pavelec?

What if they do buy out Pavelec and say sign a Khudobin but he then flops over the long term? What happens then?

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02-04-2014, 09:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
Is there any reason why they can't sign say Griess or Khudobin as an UFA and look to move Pavelec?

What if they do buy out Pavelec and say sign a Khudobin but he then flops over the long term? What happens then?
Khudobin might flop, but even if he hid he'd likely flop to something better than Ondrej Pavelec.

As for the trade, I am all for a Pavi trade. Not sure anybody would buy though.

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02-04-2014, 09:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
Is there any reason why they can't sign say Griess or Khudobin as an UFA and look to move Pavelec?

What if they do buy out Pavelec and say sign a Khudobin but he then flops over the long term? What happens then?
I think it's already been said but Mike Milbury isn't a GM right now.

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