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19 Jan '12 - Wild probably get buried by leaves in Toronto - 6PM CT - FSN/WI/TSN

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01-19-2012, 12:29 AM
  #1
Avder
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19 Jan '12 - Wild probably get buried by leaves in Toronto - 6PM CT - FSN/WI/TSN

I saw there was no GDT yet, so ****, lets be Santa. I'm 2-2 in these, so whatever. Anyhoo, mailing' it in, yo.

Matchup:



AT



TV: Fox Sports North, Fox Sports Wisconsin, TSN.

Lines:

Min:

Setoguchi - Peters - Heatley
Clutterbuck - Cullen - Wellman
Powe - Brodziak - Johnson
Staubitz - McMillan - McIntyre

Schultz - Falk
Lundin - Zidlicky
Stoner - Spurgeon

Backstrom
Harding


Tor: (ripped off from their pre-game thread and last GDT, I dont care, sue me)

Lombardi-Bozak-Kessel
Kulemin-Grabovski-MacArthur
Lupul-Connelly-Kadri
Crabb-Steckle-Brown

Aulie-Phaneuf
Gunnarsson-Schenn
Gardiner-Franson

Gustavsson
Reimer


Comments:

The Avs won last night and knocked us into 9th place. Thats right, we've finally fallen out of the playoffs. Don't know if I even have a rant in me.

The age of Warren Peters has begun, as he can now accurately be called "First Line Center Warren Peters"

I'm embarrassed to be a fan of these guys lately. That's why my little avatar guy has started sporting a Beagle Puss.

Here's a picture of a derailed train, which is what we are right now:


Go.

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01-19-2012, 12:34 AM
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Fel 96
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Are you ready for a national TV humiliation?

Don't think we have the choice..

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01-19-2012, 12:39 AM
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Avder
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Are you ready for a national TV humiliation?

Don't think we have the choice..
I dread each time we get put on CBC/TSN/NBC/VS lately, honestly.

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01-19-2012, 12:40 AM
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Fel 96
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On a more serious note, it'd be nice to see the Wild "eliminate" the Leafs as Leafs fans would say.

Just believe in miracles.


Last edited by Fel 96: 01-19-2012 at 12:57 AM.
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01-19-2012, 12:55 AM
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Avder
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Remember that game a couple seasons ago when the Flyers and Rangers met on the last day of the season, with both of them in a "Win or go home" situation, playoffs wise?

Yeah this game aint that game. Perhaps one team is the other teams slump buster, but in reality the winner of this game probably just goes on to become roadkill in the next one, and so does the loser.

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01-19-2012, 01:11 AM
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Billy Mays Here
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At this point I don't give a flying ****. Either start winning and make the playoffs or tank tank and tank some more to get a lottery pick. I'll take the latter so people stop wasting their money going to the X to witness this team play until they can change it for the better this coming off season.

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01-19-2012, 01:14 AM
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NHL1674
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Had fun searching for NHL players on facebook one night. Lots of Mikko Koivu's out there. But speaking of the Leafs, leaf blower or weapon of mass destruction?

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01-19-2012, 01:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NHL1674 View Post
Had fun searching for NHL players on facebook one night. Lots of Mikko Koivu's out there. But speaking of the Leafs, leaf blower or weapon of mass destruction?
Reminds me of an episode of spongebob. And I cant find an adequate youtube video of it.

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01-19-2012, 04:34 AM
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It's a sad time as a Wild fan, game in and game out i'm waiting for a desctruction from the opposition team.
And most of the time i'm right. We can't lose our belief tho, the tide will turn!

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01-19-2012, 08:12 AM
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As a fan of this team I am really disgusted with the way everyone is playing right now. I'll always be a fan, but 1st to 9th in a month is unbelievable. Things had better turn around next season.

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01-19-2012, 08:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Avder View Post
Remember that game a couple seasons ago when the Flyers and Rangers met on the last day of the season, with both of them in a "Win or go home" situation, playoffs wise?

Yeah this game aint that game. Perhaps one team is the other teams slump buster, but in reality the winner of this game probably just goes on to become roadkill in the next one, and so does the loser.
That year had another, just missed opportunity. If NYR had beaten Philly in OT or the shootout, and the Leafs had beaten the Habs in regulation, both NYR and Philly would have made the playoffs, but the Habs would have been left home. The Leafs game tied with about a minute left, NYR and Philly went into OT, the Leafs had an offensive zone faceoff, and I thought for sure they'd pull the goalie in a valiant effort to keep the Habs out of the postseason. Leafs ended up winning in OT, and Philly won that game anyway so it didn't end up mattering, but I would have loved to see a team with nothing to play for pull the goalie in a desperate attempt to keep their biggest rival out of the postseason.

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01-19-2012, 08:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northland Wild Man View Post
As a fan of this team I am really disgusted with the way everyone is playing right now. I'll always be a fan, but 1st to 9th in a month is unbelievable. Things had better turn around next season.
Want unbelievable? We've won two games in the past 40 days. Just two games, and it took until last night for us to fall out of the top 8 in the conference. Want even more absurd? We could do it again over the next 40 days, and (at their current point paces) Columbus, Edmonton, and Anaheim would still trail us by at least 5 points each. The BJs in particular would trail us by 15 points still. There's 4 teams in the East that would likely trail us as well at their current paces. We could win a total of 4 games over an 80 day period and still only drop to 23rd in the league.

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01-19-2012, 09:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squidz View Post
Want unbelievable? We've won two games in the past 40 days. Just two games, and it took until last night for us to fall out of the top 8 in the conference. Want even more absurd? We could do it again over the next 40 days, and (at their current point paces) Columbus, Edmonton, and Anaheim would still trail us by at least 5 points each. The BJs in particular would trail us by 15 points still. There's 4 teams in the East that would likely trail us as well at their current paces. We could win a total of 4 games over an 80 day period and still only drop to 23rd in the league.
I wonder what the odds of the team getting into the draft lottery are?

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01-19-2012, 10:03 AM
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Hey, good luck tonight

Just some heads up, Wilson is probably going to experiment with the D lines tonight

Pretty sure Phaneuf - Schenn wil be our top pairing.

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01-19-2012, 10:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northland Wild Man View Post
I wonder what the odds of the team getting into the draft lottery are?
Into the lottery period? Pretty good, but that's because all teams that miss the playoffs are in the lottery. Getting a so called "lottery pick?" Those odds are pretty low, even with our injuries, streak, and the possibility of being sellers. Since the lockout, teams finishing 26th overall have somewhere between 71-79 points. Right now, the 26th place team (Tampa) is on pace for 73 points. To hit that threshold, we'd have to earn only 22 points in our remaining 36 games. For reference, Columbus earned 23 points in their first 36 games this season. Carolina earned 28 points in their first 36. The Wild earned 45 points in theirs. If the Wild play their final 36 like their last 18, they'll earn 20 points through the rest of the season.

It's worth noting that of our remaining 36 games, we have 4 matchups with Colorado, 2 with Columbus, 4 with Dallas, 2 with Calgary, and 1 with Anaheim. That's 13 matchups against a combined record of 280-276-45, which is an average rate of 1.07 points granted per game.

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01-19-2012, 10:08 AM
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01-19-2012, 10:32 AM
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Projected Draft Position
DraftTeamPPGProjOddsHighest
1stCOLUMBUS0.695625.0%1st
2ndCAROLINA0.836818.8%1st
3rdEDMONTON0.846914.2%1st
4thANAHEIM0.877110.7%1st
5thTAMPA BAY0.89738.1%2nd
6thNY ISLANDERS0.91756.2%3rd
7thMONTREAL0.91754.7%4th
8thBUFFALO0.93773.6%5th
9thCALGARY1.02842.7%6th
10thWINNIPEG1.02842.1%7th
11thPHOENIX1.04851.5%8th
12thCOLORADO1.08891.1%9th
13thTORONTO1.09890.8%10th
14thMINNESOTA1.11910.5%11th
15thDALLAS1.11910.0%15th
16thWASHINGTON1.16950.0%16th
17thPITTSBURGH1.16950.0%17th
18thFLORIDA1.16950.0%18th
19thLOS ANGELES1.17960.0%19th
20thNEW JERSEY1.20980.0%20th
21stOTTAWA1.21990.0%21st
22ndNASHVILLE1.221000.0%22nd
23rdVANCOUVER1.281050.0%23rd
24thPHILADELPHIA1.321080.0%24th
25thCHICAGO1.321080.0%25th
26thSAN JOSE1.331090.0%26th
27thDETROIT1.331090.0%27th
28thST LOUIS1.331090.0%28th
29thBOSTON1.371130.0%29th
30thNY RANGERS1.411160.0%30th

I'll keep working on it.


Last edited by Jarick: 01-19-2012 at 10:41 AM.
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01-19-2012, 10:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squidz View Post
Into the lottery period? Pretty good, but that's because all teams that miss the playoffs are in the lottery. Getting a so called "lottery pick?" Those odds are pretty low, even with our injuries, streak, and the possibility of being sellers. Since the lockout, teams finishing 26th overall have somewhere between 71-79 points. Right now, the 26th place team (Tampa) is on pace for 73 points. To hit that threshold, we'd have to earn only 22 points in our remaining 36 games. For reference, Columbus earned 23 points in their first 36 games this season. Carolina earned 28 points in their first 36. The Wild earned 45 points in theirs. If the Wild play their final 36 like their last 18, they'll earn 20 points through the rest of the season.

It's worth noting that of our remaining 36 games, we have 4 matchups with Colorado, 2 with Columbus, 4 with Dallas, 2 with Calgary, and 1 with Anaheim. That's 13 matchups against a combined record of 280-276-45, which is an average rate of 1.07 points granted per game.
My meaning was a lottery pick. Sorry, it's my Friday today.

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01-19-2012, 10:42 AM
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Okay, from that table, season ends today, Wild draft 14th with a 0.5% chance to move up to the 11th spot.

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01-19-2012, 11:17 AM
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die die die my darlin

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01-19-2012, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
Okay, from that table, season ends today, Wild draft 14th with a 0.5% chance to move up to the 11th spot.
Can you run that silly baseball formula that takes goals for/goals against to estimate the final standings? It has a name that's currently eluding me, but people have been using it a bunch in the prospects forum to come up with order for their drafts.

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01-19-2012, 11:40 AM
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Pythagorean, sure, give me a bit. I lied, took 5 minutes.

This projects the remainder of the season based on pythagorean equation (1/(1+(GFA/GAA)^2)) plus points earned to this point. So past performance plus projected performance based on scoring differential.

Also, notice how accurate this is compared to Corsi. Corsi sucks. Goal differential is king. That is why you need scorers and a defensive system.

Pythagorean Draft Position
DraftTeamPythProjOddsHighest
1stCOLUMBUS0.3535725.0%1st
2ndCAROLINA0.3986718.8%1st
3rdTAMPA BAY0.3876914.2%1st
4thNY ISLANDERS0.3786910.7%1st
5thANAHEIM0.429718.1%2nd
6thEDMONTON0.448716.2%3rd
7thBUFFALO0.398724.7%4th
8thMONTREAL0.478763.6%5th
9thCALGARY0.421772.7%6th
10thWINNIPEG0.435782.1%7th
11thCOLORADO0.423811.5%8th
12thMINNESOTA0.444831.1%9th
13thPHOENIX0.496840.8%10th
14thDALLAS0.467850.5%11th
15thTORONTO0.492850.0%15th
16thFLORIDA0.462860.0%16th
17thNEW JERSEY0.470890.0%17th
18thWASHINGTON0.507900.0%18th
19thLOS ANGELES0.505900.0%19th
20thOTTAWA0.487910.0%20th
21stNASHVILLE0.500920.0%21st
22ndPITTSBURGH0.567940.0%22nd
23rdCHICAGO0.5691020.0%23rd
24thPHILADELPHIA0.5791020.0%24th
25thSAN JOSE0.5961030.0%25th
26thVANCOUVER0.6361040.0%26th
27thST LOUIS0.6261060.0%27th
28thDETROIT0.6591080.0%28th
29thNY RANGERS0.6671130.0%29th
30thBOSTON0.7541180.0%30th


Last edited by Jarick: 01-19-2012 at 11:58 AM.
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01-19-2012, 11:46 AM
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Hopefully I can catch some of this one. The last few games my buddies always manage to want to work out a half hour or so into the game and we go so long I can usually only see the last few minutes, if anything.

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01-19-2012, 12:16 PM
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Dee Oh Cee
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The only thing that's difficult when using projections for this team is the inconsistency...like...it's not like they're playing the same game they have been all year so eventually it will even out with the projected numbers...they played one game when they were winning and now they're playing a completely different one...so the projections can't take into account if we start playing the way we did at during the winning times.

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01-19-2012, 12:27 PM
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The thing with draft position is that if we continue to lose while the teams below us win a few games, we could go from 14th overall to about 9th overall in the span of a few weeks.

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