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The..."PANIC! 1:54am: No GDT thread present." GDT. Sens vs. Sharks 7:30

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01-20-2012, 05:08 PM
  #826
SJeasy
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Again, enough people have looked at the issue and done research to conclude that team-to-team discrepancies in shot quality are nonexistent at the NHL level. Year-to-year correlation in shooting percentage at the team level is exactly zero over the past four seasons. If the ability to consistently outperform shot rate based on shooting percentage existed at the team level (which would theoretically be achieved through higher "shot quality") it would need to be repeatable, yes? Over that same time span, the Sharks have scored on 8.1% of their shots at even-strength - pretty much exactly league average - and have scored on 14% of their PP shots (5th in the NHL IIRC although I'd have to double check on that ranking). They're no worse at "finishing" their chances than an average NHL team and there's nothing to suggest that their ratio of chances to overall shots is significantly different than any other team.
The problem is looking at the forest as opposed to the trees. While I agree that generically high shot count is good, there are issues in specific cases. Even TM admitted that Nashville is extremely effective in inducing to teams to stick with low quality chances. Taken to the level of players, most return to norm on percentages, but we can take the cases of Heatley and Cheechoo who fell off the cliff and effectively have stayed there. We can look at Vrbata who is having a banner year but who is generally a low percentage guy. My argument is that the Sharks are taking it to an extreme (not entirely there yet). I would check on blueline shots as a percentage of total shots as the first place to look.

I don't think the Sens game was entirely symptomatic of the issue and I don't think TM is particularly ignorant either. He is talking about getting shots early, not holding pucks (making time) which give time for the defense to set as well. He is talking about getting the puck up the ice quicker. Both issues speak to getting higher quality chances.

On goalies which we saw in the Sens game, Nemo's performance was way below par technically. One game, so what, it happens to all goalies. The issue is if he experiences a significant increase of subpar performances as a percentage. And I agree that goalies return to norm for the most part (another place where it pays to separate the tree from the forest when a goalie is losing it entirely).

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01-20-2012, 05:25 PM
  #827
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Again, enough people have looked at the issue and done research to conclude that team-to-team discrepancies in shot quality are nonexistent at the NHL level. Year-to-year correlation in shooting percentage at the team level is exactly zero over the past four seasons. If the ability to consistently outperform shot rate based on shooting percentage existed at the team level (which would theoretically be achieved through higher "shot quality") it would need to be repeatable, yes? Over that same time span, the Sharks have scored on 8.1% of their shots at even-strength - pretty much exactly league average - and have scored on 14% of their PP shots (5th in the NHL IIRC although I'd have to double check on that ranking). They're no worse at "finishing" their chances than an average NHL team and there's nothing to suggest that their ratio of chances to overall shots is significantly different than any other team.
Little something to throw into this analysis ... if a team lacks finish, a GM will often make moves to add finishers. That would raise team percentage year to year, no? So would it not be possible for a team to lack finish in a given year, but have a higher long-term average?

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01-20-2012, 06:01 PM
  #828
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Originally Posted by juantimer View Post
Little something to throw into this analysis ... if a team lacks finish, a GM will often make moves to add finishers. That would raise team percentage year to year, no? So would it not be possible for a team to lack finish in a given year, but have a higher long-term average?
I think you will find that teams get bumps if they add setup guys. I wouldn't be surprised if the Rags got a bump this year in SH%. I have seen it before if a team doesn't really have playmakers and they add. The team that adds snipers/finishers usually doesn't get the expected bump from what I have seen historically.

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01-20-2012, 06:04 PM
  #829
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Originally Posted by juantimer View Post
Little something to throw into this analysis ... if a team lacks finish, a GM will often make moves to add finishers. That would raise team percentage year to year, no? So would it not be possible for a team to lack finish in a given year, but have a higher long-term average?
That's a good point and worth looking into but on the other hand...there are just so few players who have exhibited the ability to consistently maintain a high shooting percentage that I don't know how much impact that would have. It really just boils down to Kovalchuk, Brunette and Tanguay in terms of players who are able to sustain a shooting percentage two standard deviations above league mean on a yearly basis and Kovalchuk has gone downhill in that category since joining the Devils. And then with regards to players who have consistently driven their teammates' shooting percentages up, it's really just Henrik Sedin, Thornton and Crosby and even then only to a pretty small degree. IMO there are a few teams that will consistently be near the top of the league in SH% due either to player talent (Vancouver) or playing style (Philadelphia) and an equal number consistently bringing up the rear due to lack of finishing talent (Columbus, Islanders) but the vast majority of teams shift erratically from year-to-year and that's what we can observe from the data. Shooting percentage is largely unpredictable and non-repeatable while shot rates are.

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01-20-2012, 11:29 PM
  #830
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When the team lacks finnish, the GM adds Nitty and Niemi.

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01-20-2012, 11:45 PM
  #831
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When the team lacks finnish, the GM adds Nitty and Niemi.
Haha well done.

And when a team lacks speed, you sign Michal Handzus.

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01-20-2012, 11:48 PM
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Haha well done.

And when a team lacks speed, you sign Michal Handzus.














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01-20-2012, 11:51 PM
  #833
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Haha well done.

And when a team lacks speed, you sign Michal Handzus.
Hey come on now, would we really have a winning record in shootouts if not for Handzus...

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01-20-2012, 11:54 PM
  #834
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Hey come on now, would we really have a winning record in shootouts if not for Handzus...
Well it was a joke, of course. Zeus has been very good.

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01-20-2012, 11:55 PM
  #835
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Hey come on now, would we really have a winning record in shootouts if not for Handzus...
You're right, with his shootout skills, he'll be PERFECT for the playoffs. Oh, wait...

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01-21-2012, 12:17 AM
  #836
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You're right, with his shootout skills, he'll be PERFECT for the playoffs. Oh, wait...
Ah...Ah...Awww

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01-21-2012, 02:36 AM
  #837
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Haha well done.

And when a team lacks speed, you sign Michal Handzus.
No no that's when the team lacks handz

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