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Math playoff thread: Lost to Hurricanes 3-0, Mathematically Eliminated from Playoffs.

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Old
01-23-2012, 10:40 PM
  #51
Nizdizzle
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LA beating Ottawa would likely shoot us up another full percent

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01-23-2012, 11:51 PM
  #52
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In before..




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Old
01-24-2012, 12:01 AM
  #53
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Interesting how 89 points gives a 56.5% chance of making the playoffs this year. That's definitely a fair bit lower than usual...

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01-24-2012, 12:19 AM
  #54
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:'( i hope the thread title, turns to.. Playoff spot clinched .

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Old
01-24-2012, 12:33 AM
  #55
Charlie Sheen Swag
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the leafs need 40 more points (93 should do the trick) and have 34 games left. So they need to win about 59% of their remaining games. Not exact but just a good idea

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Old
01-24-2012, 12:51 AM
  #56
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This site is pretty useless, it sheds no real light on anything of value.

We know, win games, chances go up.

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Old
01-24-2012, 09:21 AM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie Sheen Swag View Post
the leafs need 40 more points (93 should do the trick) and have 34 games left. So they need to win about 59% of their remaining games. Not exact but just a good idea
Wouldnt shock me this year if the 8th place team had around 90 pts. In 2010, Montreal got in with 88

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Old
01-24-2012, 09:28 AM
  #58
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Originally Posted by blasted_Sabre View Post
Wouldnt shock me this year if the 8th place team had around 90 pts. In 2010, Montreal got in with 88
The higher the parity the lower the point total you need to get in.

The East is very competitive after the top 2 spots, down to about 12th.

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01-24-2012, 09:55 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by blasted_Sabre View Post
Wouldnt shock me this year if the 8th place team had around 90 pts. In 2010, Montreal got in with 88
that was the exception, not the rule. every other year for the past decade or so the cutoff has been 92-94 points

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01-24-2012, 10:02 AM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hero View Post
This site is pretty useless, it sheds no real light on anything of value.

We know, win games, chances go up.
Let's play the "I don't care about math and probability" identification game.

I think I found someone!

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Old
01-24-2012, 11:01 AM
  #61
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Ok so updated odds are 65.5% as last night was huge for us with Toronto getting a W and Winnipeg and Ottawa both losing.

For the scoreboard watching people the most important games for tonight are the Jersey and Panther games.

edit: and ours of course

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Old
01-24-2012, 11:13 AM
  #62
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Originally Posted by Eb View Post
Lol so funny. This is so dumb. Forget these percentages.
ooooops effed up the days of the week...

They need to win tonight whether you like looking at probability stats or not, that much is apparent

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Old
01-24-2012, 11:28 AM
  #63
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On the plus side - OV suspended for 3 games helps us. Hes been in beast mode for the last little while.

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01-24-2012, 11:34 AM
  #64
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Why do we have to have a thread that tells us the change in percentage of making the playoffs. Wins and losses change the odds of making the post-season? Really?

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01-24-2012, 11:59 AM
  #65
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OK everyone hands up if you've ever taken a college or university level statistics course

If you are criticizing this, please identify your education level!

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01-24-2012, 12:04 PM
  #66
Eb
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OK everyone hands up if you've ever taken a college or university level statistics course

If you are criticizing this, please identify your education level!
What does that have to do with ANYTHING? I am in Commerce and still think this is stupid. Win games, and it will increase our chances. Percentages don't mean anything for a team trying to make the playoffs!

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01-24-2012, 12:08 PM
  #67
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And let's be honest here, all the percentages in the World don't mean squat if we can't score goals or stop goals from being scored aka if we can't win games..

These percentages only matter if we win.

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01-24-2012, 12:18 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by xyzz View Post
OK everyone hands up if you've ever taken a college or university level statistics course

If you are criticizing this, please identify your education level!
I enjoy statistics (have taken several related uni courses) and while it's obviously the wins and loses that determine playoffs it's fun to look at the percentages day-by-day. If someone doesn't care for the statistics they should just stay out of the thread.

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Old
01-24-2012, 12:37 PM
  #69
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Originally Posted by blasted_Sabre View Post
Wouldnt shock me this year if the 8th place team had around 90 pts. In 2010, Montreal got in with 88
I agree, there seems to be a drop off after the top ten in terms of points; there certainly seems to be less competition for the 8th spot.

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Old
01-24-2012, 12:45 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Cappayne View Post
I enjoy statistics (have taken several related uni courses) and while it's obviously the wins and loses that determine playoffs it's fun to look at the percentages day-by-day. If someone doesn't care for the statistics they should just stay out of the thread.
+1 I endorse this post.

It's obvious that more wins equals a better chance, but seeing an actual %, even if it's flawed +/- a few points, is still nice to see. Having it updated after games won or lost is also fun. There's no harm and it's kinda fun. What the problem is, people?

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01-24-2012, 12:50 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by GrizzLeaf View Post
+1 I endorse this post.

It's obvious that more wins equals a better chance, but seeing an actual %, even if it's flawed +/- a few points, is still nice to see. Having it updated after games won or lost is also fun. There's no harm and it's kinda fun. What the problem is, people?
Exactly,


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Old
01-24-2012, 01:51 PM
  #72
egd27
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If you arbitrarily set the playoff line at 94 points, the table below illustrates what each team needs to do to achieve the 94.

Green indicates the teams that are probable locks unless they really drop off their current form.

Red indicates teams that are unlikely to achieve 94 points as the winning % required is likely too much to expect given their history this year. (Winnipeg is getting very close to that)

Amber indicates the those fighting for a playoff spot and the type of record they would require the rest of the way.

Again, you could argue whether of not 94 is the right number, I just used it as I believe 94 should be pretty much a guarantee.

New Picture.bmp

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Old
01-24-2012, 01:54 PM
  #73
Duke Silver
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Originally Posted by egd27 View Post
If you arbitrarily set the playoff line at 94 points, the table below illustrates what each team needs to do to achieve the 94.

Green indicates the teams that are probable locks unless they really drop off their current form.

Red indicates teams that are unlikely to achieve 94 points as the winning % required is likely too much to expect given their history this year. (Winnipeg is getting very close to that)

Amber indicates the those fighting for a playoff spot and the type of record they would require the rest of the way.

Again, you could argue whether of not 94 is the right number, I just used it as I believe 94 should be pretty much a guarantee.

Attachment 52012
Exactly what I did, except my points cut-off varies by the day based on what the 8th place pace is.

Currently, Washington's 8th place pace is 92 points. I add one point to that and call it the cut-off.

Leafs need to play .595 hockey (40 of 68 points) to hit 93.

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Old
01-24-2012, 03:52 PM
  #74
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Originally Posted by xyzz View Post
OK everyone hands up if you've ever taken a college or university level statistics course

If you are criticizing this, please identify your education level!
I took stats in college, and I absolutely love that site and following the math involved. It's awesome.

And we're in January, and we have a reasonable chance to get in. It's nice for a change.

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Old
01-24-2012, 09:53 PM
  #75
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Playoffs odds are not at 71.7%. It could go up 0.9% or go down 0.9%.

If we lose the next game our odds are down by 6%.

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