Honestly, I think there's no chance Winnipeg makes it. Due to their impressive play at home, it gives the illusion that they are a playoff team, but they are garbage on the road and ultimately that is what will bring them down. It's going to be a dogfight with Florida, Toronto, New Jersey, and Ottawa (once they cool down, which they are starting to now), imo.
I'm just praying that we go on our annual end of the year hot streak this time, considering we've managed to play half decent hockey until now, that would be enough to get us in I think.
I don't really understand...
The leafs currently are sitting in 9th place, yet have a 65% chance of making the playoffs?
Besides for the hot start (which was quite a long time ago) aren't the leafs a .500 team? Currently in 9th? 65%?
Something doesn't add up...
Aside from brief hot streaks, aren't the Caps, Sens, Pens, Panthers, and Devils .500 teams? Currently within a couple of games of being in 9th? How are their chances much better?
In all seriousness, fun things like road record, home record, records of opponents left to be played, records /against/ opponents left to be played and the like all factor in. For example, we only have to play Boston twice more -- that's only half as many losses from that opponent as we had in the first half! If it was strictly a wonderful coin flip game, the chance would certainly be different, but it's not.
Im actually a bit concerned on our back to back with pittsburgh. They are ridiculously hot right now, rolling on a 7 game win streak. I hope the ASG break cools them off and makes then a bit complacent... Hopefully.
I don't really understand...
The leafs currently are sitting in 9th place, yet have a 65% chance of making the playoffs?
Besides for the hot start (which was quite a long time ago) aren't the leafs a .500 team? Currently in 9th? 65%?
Something doesn't add up...
if Washington screws up or Florida screws up or Ottawa screws up or New Jersey screws up, we'll make the playoffs at our current pace. there's a lot of 'or' in there; a lot of available slots we can land in.
could all four of those teams make it to 94 points and force us to do very well to get in? sure. but it's not very likely.
Ottawa's position is skewed by their games played; theyve played 52 games, while most in the conference have played 48-49. They're cooling off, and as other teams take advantage of those games in hand, they'll be in the race with us, Jersey, Florida/Washington.
Im actually a bit concerned on our back to back with pittsburgh. They are ridiculously hot right now, rolling on a 7 game win streak. I hope the ASG break cools them off and makes then a bit complacent... Hopefully.
I hope so too. That back to back is going to be really tough.
Ottawa's position is skewed by their games played; theyve played 52 games, while most in the conference have played 48-49. They're cooling off, and as other teams take advantage of those games in hand, they'll be in the race with us, Jersey, Florida/Washington.
They also will be more after the ASG. Leafs have 15 games in 30days that will be draining
Im actually a bit concerned on our back to back with pittsburgh. They are ridiculously hot right now, rolling on a 7 game win streak. I hope the ASG break cools them off and makes then a bit complacent... Hopefully.
Those two games will be huge. I have a feeling Kessel will go on a post-ASG surge. He always seems to play best when well-rested (i.e beginning of the year).
I don't really understand...
The leafs currently are sitting in 9th place, yet have a 65% chance of making the playoffs?
Besides for the hot start (which was quite a long time ago) aren't the leafs a .500 team? Currently in 9th? 65%?
Something doesn't add up...
The (very simplified) math:
Let's say that in every single scenario that could play out, BOS, NYR, PHI and PIT make it in, and NYI, CAR and BUF are out. (I can do this because any other scenario is pretty much statistically negligible.)
At season's end, 4 more teams will be 100% in the playoffs, and 4 more teams will have a 0% chance. And we can accept that if one of those teams has a 90% chance, that gives a 10% chance to someone else, and so on, right?
atm, Toronto has a leg up on the Devils because of goal differential, among other factors, but let's look at WAS, OTT, FLA and NJ first. They have ~81%, ~78%, ~75% and ~55% respectively. Or, to put it another way, ~19%, ~22%, ~25% and ~45% chances of ceding a spot to another team. That's a combined ~111% chance spread among the remaining 4 teams.
Who gets those chances?
Montreal and Winnipeg, both with ~16%, and Tampa with ~6%. That's a combined ~38% between them.
Toronto gets the remaining ~73%.
Translation: In almost every single scenario where one of WAS, OTT, FLA or NJ missed the playoffs, Toronto gets it.
You have to remember that "Toronto at 72.4%" doesn't mean "they'll almost definitely make the playoffs", but rather "in three quarters of likely played-out scenarios, they make it". Which in the end doesn't mean a hill of beans, because only one scenario actually plays out, period.
Let's say that in every single scenario that could play out, BOS, NYR, PHI and PIT make it in, and NYI, CAR and BUF are out. (I can do this because any other scenario is pretty much statistically negligible.)
At season's end, 4 more teams will be 100% in the playoffs, and 4 more teams will have a 0% chance. And we can accept that if one of those teams has a 90% chance, that gives a 10% chance to someone else, and so on, right?
atm, Toronto has a leg up on the Devils because of goal differential, among other factors, but let's look at WAS, OTT, FLA and NJ first. They have ~81%, ~78%, ~75% and ~55% respectively. Or, to put it another way, ~19%, ~22%, ~25% and ~45% chances of ceding a spot to another team. That's a combined ~111% chance spread among the remaining 4 teams.
Who gets those chances?
Montreal and Winnipeg, both with ~16%, and Tampa with ~6%. That's a combined ~38% between them.
Toronto gets the remaining ~73%.
Translation: In almost every single scenario where one of WAS, OTT, FLA or NJ missed the playoffs, Toronto gets it.
You have to remember that "Toronto at 72.4%" doesn't mean "they'll almost definitely make the playoffs", but rather "in three quarters of likely played-out scenarios, they make it". Which in the end doesn't mean a hill of beans, because only one scenario actually plays out, period.
that is pretty much the reason, but I just want to add that none of the teams we are chasing have a <50% chance of making it, its just because there is basically 5 teams (6 if you want to include Winnipeg) chasing 4 spots. That gives us a much better chance than last year when I think (?) there was about 6 teams chasing 2 spots.
New Jersey 55.2%
Florida 74.6%
Ottawa 77.7%
Washington 80.5%
that is pretty much the reason, but I just want to add that none of the teams we are chasing have a <50% chance of making it, its just because there is basically 5 teams (6 if you want to include Winnipeg) chasing 4 spots. That gives us a much better chance than last year when I think (?) there was about 6 teams chasing 2 spots.
New Jersey 55.2%
Florida 74.6%
Ottawa 77.7%
Washington 80.5%
*Pittsburgh 98.3%
*Winnipeg 16.0%
Exactly, and if there was literally 4 nearly equal teams chasing 5 spots, period (say if the Habs and Jets team planes collided in mid air tomorrow), you would likely see the 9th best team in the conference with a nearly 80% chance of making the playoffs.
It's more like 4 teams chasing 3 spots, because the Southeast division leader, is guaranteed in...regardless of points. Because of the Washington/Florida scenario, we just don't know which of those 2 teams.....will eventually join Ottawa, New Jersey, and Toronto in the race for 6, 7 and 8.
One would suspect that Washington will take the 3rd seed, leaving Florida to battle it out with the other teams mentioned.
Winnipeg's odds should be higher... they are chasing WAS and FLA for the 3rd seed in the East, and none of those teams look like they'll be getting into the playoffs.
Winnipeg's odds should be higher... they are chasing WAS and FLA for the 3rd seed in the East, and none of those teams look like they'll be getting into the playoffs.
Winnipeg sucks ass on the road. You can't make the playoffs with a stellar home record and piss-poor road record. No playoff team last year (or numerous years before) had losing road records.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SprDaVE
I really hope the Panthers come back down to earth. I can't believe how competitive they are...
They will be missing Kulikov for a couple weeks/months, so right there should hurt them a bit. He was having a solid year for them.
For what it's worth, McKenzie and Crawford think we will make the playoffs.
Ottawa has also lost 3 in a row (and 4 of their last 6) and should be coming back down to earth themselves. Anderson is a streaky goalie and they have a very young, unproven, inexperienced roster.
ottawa and florida will come back down to earth after the allstar break. even without any moves before the deadline this is a playoff team IMO. longest losing streak is 3 games IIRC, as long as we can keep it that way we'll be fine.
