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If you were named Sharks GM tomorrow...

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Old
01-23-2012, 01:03 AM
  #51
Negatively Positive
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You know you done messed up when you got LZ and PF teaming up against you

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Old
01-23-2012, 01:04 AM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
Your shooting percentage stat really doesn't tell you much. The problem is Mitchell for instance might take one or two shots a game most nights. Over the course of a hundred shots could span a period of upto 50 games. Over those 50 games, a fair percentage will be facing poor defense or a poor goaltender. So sometimes his poor shooting is going to be more effective. That's likely why a lot of mediocre players 'return to the mean' as you say.
Math Please.

You need to build an internet site that can use the magical numbers you pretend matter and make them important. Make people believe. I know you've been alive long enough to understand that you need a logo and plaque to make your information believable.

PM me. I'll help you build it. You must know the answer before you ask the question.

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Old
01-23-2012, 01:04 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
The advanced statistics argument is also tired and pathetic and meaningless.
I agree with your position over les wynn 99/100 times, but not on this Mitchell issue. Mitchell is so undervalued by this message board it's rediculous. Mitchell may not be a great hockey player, but he is a pretty good grinder. He's fast, which the Sharks can't afford to get rid of, and he's not nearly as much of an offensive killer as people like to make him out to be here.

I do disagree with Les about McGinn though as I think he has done exceptionally well as another third line grinder, as does Todd Mclellan. The problem with McGinn is when Mclellan tries to reward him by moving him to a top six role he fails.

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01-23-2012, 01:06 AM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
Math Please.

You need to build an internet site that can use the magical numbers you pretend matter and make them important. Make people believe. I know you've been alive long enough to understand that you need a logo and plaque to make your information believable.

PM me. I'll help you build it. You must know the answer before you ask the question.
Did you mean to quote me? I'm confused... I was agreeing with you...

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01-23-2012, 01:06 AM
  #55
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Originally Posted by 4U2NV View Post
Well first I'd have a statgasm and explore every possible statistic to help make me sound smarter and probably build a team that would be nowhere near a championship.

Then I'd be fired.
This made me laugh out loud

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Old
01-23-2012, 01:07 AM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jwhitesj View Post
I agree with your position over les wynn 99/100 times, but not on this Mitchell issue. Mitchell is so undervalued by this message board it's rediculous. Mitchell may not be a great hockey player, but he is a pretty good grinder. He's fast, which the Sharks can't afford to get rid of, and he's not nearly as much of an offensive killer as people like to make him out to be here.

I do disagree with Les about McGinn though as I think he has done exceptionally well as another third line grinder, as does Todd Mclellan. The problem with McGinn is when Mclellan tries to reward him by moving him to a top six role he fails.
The board undervaluing Mitchell has nothing to do with LW overvaluing him or my argument that he's wrong in what he's saying.

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Old
01-23-2012, 01:08 AM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
You were responding to me using Corsi to evaluate McGinn/Handzus/Mitchell, yes? The reason Corsi is more valuable than point totals or plus-minus or any other conventional statistic is because of the inherent unreliability of shooting and save percentage at even strength.
Like I said, irrelevant. It is purely subjective and opinion-based to believe that what you're using to properly evaluate a player in whichever facet you want is the way to go.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jwhitesj View Post
I agree with your position over les wynn 99/100 times, but not on this Mitchell issue. Mitchell is so undervalued by this message board it's rediculous. Mitchell may not be a great hockey player, but he is a pretty good grinder. He's fast, which the Sharks can't afford to get rid of, and he's not nearly as much of an offensive killer as people like to make him out to be here.

I do disagree with Les about McGinn though as I think he has done exceptionally well as another third line grinder, as does Todd Mclellan. The problem with McGinn is when Mclellan tries to reward him by moving him to a top six role he fails.
I can live with this type of response and understand that point of view but not necessarily agree with it. His speed would be a great weapon to have if he were properly using it. That is his problem. He's got what it takes to be a good third liner but instincts are a problem with him just like it was with Setoguchi.

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01-23-2012, 01:10 AM
  #58
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Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
Did you mean to quote me? I'm confused... I was agreeing with you...

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Old
01-23-2012, 01:11 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
Like I said, irrelevant. It is purely subjective and opinion-based to believe that what you're using to properly evaluate a player in whichever facet you want is the way to go.
Do you want more links to analysis and evidence that shooting and save percentage when a player is on the ice at even strength strongly regress to the league mean across the board? It's a fact, not an opinion.

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01-23-2012, 01:13 AM
  #60
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Do you want more links to analysis and evidence that shooting and save percentage when a player is on the ice at even strength strongly regress to the league mean across the board? It's a fact, not an opinion.
Irrelevant to my point.

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01-23-2012, 01:13 AM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
The board undervaluing Mitchell has nothing to do with LW overvaluing him or my argument that he's wrong in what he's saying.
I'm not arguing with anything you said. I'm not even sure I have ever seen you bash Mitchell. PF does though and I think PF is wrong about Mitchell. We all agree that LW uses stats in the wrong way to try evaluate players and his statistical based arguments are weak.

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Old
01-23-2012, 01:14 AM
  #62
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Back to the main topic and suggestions most of which are for the end of the season:
  1. New AHL coach
  2. A full time professional skating instructor for the org
  3. A new standard where all players are measured for skating speed at the outset of each season and improvement is expected for any player under 28.
  4. A full time NHL goaltending coach (poach Korn off of Nashville or go to Finland)
  5. A shift of emphasis to more playmakers and speed in drafting, size gets reduced emphasis. No first round dman unless the scout is putting his job on the line.
  6. Get budget by having only one scout viewing in person per prospect. Get better coverage and save on air travel. Others can can watch DVD or tape.
  7. Get out of New England looking for forwards.
  8. A thorough review of scouting records.
  9. All new NMCs and NTCs are qualified with playoffs and advancement
  10. Search for one or two creative NHL ACs, possibly former players.
  11. Set standards and give them to the players for performance as team. Don't meet the standards, no acquisitions made except for injury replacement. The Sharks are heading into rebuilding time and facing reduced odds each year of an acquisition being that final piece. Save the draft picks unless the players show their commitment early on.

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Old
01-23-2012, 01:15 AM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
Irrelevant to my point.
Things aren't just magically irrelevant when they aren't convenient for your argument. You claimed something is subjective and opinion-based when there's a ton of evidence for it that I showed you.

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Old
01-23-2012, 01:17 AM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Back to the main topic and suggestions most of which are for the end of the season:
  1. New AHL coach
  2. A full time professional skating instructor for the org
  3. A new standard where all players are measured for skating speed at the outset of each season and improvement is expected for any player under 28.
  4. A full time NHL goaltending coach (poach Korn off of Nashville or go to Finland)
  5. A shift of emphasis to more playmakers and speed in drafting, size gets reduced emphasis. No first round dman unless the scout is putting his job on the line.
  6. Get budget by having only one scout viewing in person per prospect. Get better coverage and save on air travel. Others can can watch DVD or tape.
  7. Get out of New England looking for forwards.
  8. A thorough review of scouting records.
  9. All new NMCs and NTCs are qualified with playoffs and advancement
  10. Search for one or two creative NHL ACs, possibly former players.
I miss Warren Strelow.

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Old
01-23-2012, 01:18 AM
  #65
Led Zappa
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jwhitesj View Post
I'm not arguing with anything you said. I'm not even sure I have ever seen you bash Mitchell. PF does though and I think PF is wrong about Mitchell. We all agree that LW uses stats in the wrong way to try evaluate players and his statistical based arguments are weak.
I guess I was trying to say that I think the board undervalues him, but I think he is the weak link even though he's played better in the last few games. I look at it like Ferry-O. He's got 6-8 games of energy and then it's back to the same-ol-same-ol.

IMO, Mitchel isn't as bad as the board would have him, but I still think he needs to go. Especially if it's him vs McGinn.

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Old
01-23-2012, 01:21 AM
  #66
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The most successful teams in the league use these statistics and are constantly trying to figure out better ways to objectively measure player performance (look up the Doug Wilson interview on ftf), a GM that makes decisions based on selective memory, biased observations and gut feelings is a losing one.

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Old
01-23-2012, 01:21 AM
  #67
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Things aren't just magically irrelevant when they aren't convenient for your argument. You claimed something is subjective and opinion-based when there's a ton of evidence for it that I showed you.
And in the end, even with evidence, it is merely subjective and opinion-based to believe that those things are in fact the proper way to evaluate a player. That is what makes your evidence irrelevant. It has nothing to do with convenience. It has everything to do with you overstepping the bounds of what is a fact and what is an opinion.

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Old
01-23-2012, 01:23 AM
  #68
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Originally Posted by BadVooDoo View Post
The most successful teams in the league use these statistics and are constantly trying to figure out better ways to objectively measure player performance (look up the Doug Wilson interview on ftf), a GM that makes decisions based on selective memory, biased observations and gut feelings is a losing one.
One who doesn't use the latest in tech AND his gut/soul will never win. It has and always will take the best of both.

Well, except in maybe a million years.

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Old
01-23-2012, 01:25 AM
  #69
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Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
I guess I was trying to say that I think the board undervalues him, but I think he is the weak link even though he's played better in the last few games. I look at it like Ferry-O. He's got 6-8 games of energy and then it's back to the same-ol-same-ol.

IMO, Mitchel isn't as bad as the board would have him, but I still think he needs to go. Especially if it's him vs McGinn.
I don't think Ferriero is any where close to as good as Mitchell as an all around hockey player. In fact, I'm ready for the Sharks to put him on waivers because he is just not good enough. If it wern't for the injuries the Sharks are dealing with I'm sure he'd be put on waivers allready. He might be a good AHL player but he just doesn't have the talent to play at the NHL level on a regular basis.

edit:
I wanted to add, if I were to have to chose McGinn or Mitchell I would choose McGinn as well. He has a lot more talent and much more upside than Mitchell. Mitchell is an average third liner at best. This board makes him out to be AHL fodder though and that's what irks me about Mitchell talk around here. We can definitely upgrade Mitchell but he is not the biggest issue with the team.

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Old
01-23-2012, 01:29 AM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
And in the end, even with evidence, it is merely subjective and opinion-based to believe that those things are in fact the proper way to evaluate a player. That is what makes your evidence irrelevant. It has nothing to do with convenience. It has everything to do with you overstepping the bounds of what is a fact and what is an opinion.
This is tantamount to saying that it's merely subjective and opinion-based to believe evolution has occurred. You're seriously confusing the terms fact and opinion. Saying the play frequently dies on Mitchell's stick is an opinion because you have zero evidence to back it up. Stating that possession metrics are the best way to evaluate a player's performance because shooting and save percentage while a player is on the ice at even strength regresses to the mean across the board is a fact because it has been proven (as those articles I linked you to show).

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01-23-2012, 01:30 AM
  #71
Led Zappa
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Originally Posted by jwhitesj View Post
I don't think Ferriero is any where close to as good as Mitchell as an all around hockey player. In fact, I'm ready for the Sharks to put him on waivers because he is just not good enough. If it wern't for the injuries the Sharks are dealing with I'm sure he'd be put on waivers allready. He might be a good AHL player but he just doesn't have the talent to play at the NHL level on a regular basis.
Once again, a comparison is not equality. Mitchell is definitely better than Ferry-O. I was just pointing out similarities in their effort after a booster. Ferry-O's was getting to the NHL. Mitchels was being benched.

It's my opinion that Mitchel will slack off again. If he doesn't, great. Even if he doesn't, we need someone better and he's the odd man out.

EDIT: After seeing your edit I really don't think we think much different on this.


Last edited by Led Zappa: 01-23-2012 at 01:36 AM.
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Old
01-23-2012, 01:34 AM
  #72
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
This is tantamount to saying that it's merely subjective and opinion-based to believe evolution has occurred. You're seriously confusing the terms fact and opinion. Saying the play frequently dies on Mitchell's stick is an opinion because you have zero evidence to back it up. Stating that possession metrics are the best way to evaluate a player's performance because shooting and save percentage while a player is on the ice at even strength regresses to the mean across the board is a fact because it has been proven (as those articles I linked you to show).
Scientific facts and what one believes is the proper way to evaluate a player for hockey are on such different levels that it was ridiculous for you to even bring it up. You also continue to miss the point in the first place because this whole shooting percentage crap you're spewing out was in response to 'stone hands' which again had nothing to do with shooting for Torrey Mitchell.

Stating that possession metrics are the best way to evaluate a player is an opinion. I don't care what you put your metrics up against, it is still an opinion. I don't base my player evaluations and any one statistic as that is incredibly stupid and often misleading in the first place because it doesn't always mean that the individual was actually the one making that number happen in the first place.

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Old
01-23-2012, 01:35 AM
  #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CloweForbidzYou View Post
trade havlat, marleau
make sure to aquire non soft players with speed.
put handguns on waivers
put clowe on line 3.
trade murray for forward
call up petrecki
trade all our draft picks for next 2 years for weber.
trade vlasic for something
trade niemi somewhere
trade couture for nabby
release boyle, getting to old.
fire tmac.

at what point in this sequence am i canned?
I think my sarcasm detector was off. but just in case, I indicated where you would get canned.

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01-23-2012, 01:40 AM
  #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
Once again, a comparison is not equality. Mitchell is definitely better than Ferry-O. I was just pointing out similarities in their effort after a booster. Ferry-O's was getting to the NHL. Mitchels was being benched.

It's my opinion that Mitchel will slack off again. If he doesn't, great. Even if he doesn't, we need someone better and he's the odd man out.

EDIT: After seeing your edit I really don't think we think much different on this.
Yeah We usually agree, thats cause we are both so damn smart

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Old
01-23-2012, 01:43 AM
  #75
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Back to the main topic and suggestions most of which are for the end of the season:
  1. New AHL coach
  2. A full time professional skating instructor for the org
  3. A new standard where all players are measured for skating speed at the outset of each season and improvement is expected for any player under 28.
  4. A full time NHL goaltending coach (poach Korn off of Nashville or go to Finland)
  5. A shift of emphasis to more playmakers and speed in drafting, size gets reduced emphasis. No first round dman unless the scout is putting his job on the line.
  6. Get budget by having only one scout viewing in person per prospect. Get better coverage and save on air travel. Others can can watch DVD or tape.
  7. Get out of New England looking for forwards.
  8. A thorough review of scouting records.
  9. All new NMCs and NTCs are qualified with playoffs and advancement
  10. Search for one or two creative NHL ACs, possibly former players.
  11. Set standards and give them to the players for performance as team. Don't meet the standards, no acquisitions made except for injury replacement. The Sharks are heading into rebuilding time and facing reduced odds each year of an acquisition being that final piece. Save the draft picks unless the players show their commitment early on.
I can pretty much get behind all of these things.

However, the whole thing with speed being the issue is mildly debatable to me. I don't refute the fact that the Sharks could use some more speed but I do think they would be a lot better if they played more physical with the size they have. I'd prefer both speed and some physical game in a perfect world. However, if they are going to be huge and slow they may as well be tough and hard to play against.

I'm sure I'll get the whole hitting/physical play doesn't lead to winning, look at these stats arguments from a few here..... but I've heard it before

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