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01-23-2012, 01:28 AM
  #26
Kitten Mittons
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If Havlat, Clowe, Handzus decide to start scoring goals, and Shepard won't be a slower version of Mitchell, and if White is benched and Vandermeer is played instead of him, while the rest of the D plays up to their potential, as does Niemi, then maybe.

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01-23-2012, 01:33 AM
  #27
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To win, it is going to have to be by outscoring the opposition. Niemi won't put them on his back a la Brodeur or Roy.

In terms of odds, I would say about 75% that the winner will be from among Boston, NYR, Vancouver and Chicago. I have the Sharks in the next group with Detroit, Philly and Pitt (~20%). Pitt moves to the top group if they get healthy all the way. I have Nashville, LA and St. Louis in the next group (5%).

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01-23-2012, 01:44 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
To win, it is going to have to be by outscoring the opposition. Niemi won't put them on his back a la Brodeur or Roy.

In terms of odds, I would say about 75% that the winner will be from among Boston, NYR, Vancouver and Chicago. I have the Sharks in the next group with Detroit, Philly and Pitt (~20%). Pitt moves to the top group if they get healthy all the way. I have Nashville, LA and St. Louis in the next group (5%).
Curious as to your rationale on Rangers and Preds. NYR has played way over their heads all season long and are due for a regression. Nashville has been dreadful this year. I would replace Boston with Detroit and Philly with St. Louis in your groups, probably move the Sharks down to that final tier with L.A. and remove Nashville altogether.

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01-23-2012, 01:57 AM
  #29
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I think we're a chance. Teams that win cups, don't generally dominate the league from the first game till the last. We are doing enough to be leading the division, with a load of improvement. Hopefully we start clicking right before the playoffs.

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01-23-2012, 02:18 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Curious as to your rationale on Rangers and Preds. NYR has played way over their heads all season long and are due for a regression. Nashville has been dreadful this year. I would replace Boston with Detroit and Philly with St. Louis in your groups, probably move the Sharks down to that final tier with L.A. and remove Nashville altogether.
Nashville is historically a second half team. Watch for their numbers to improve. (Same is true for Carolina and Anaheim but they are too far out of it.) NYR is a transition team, not a possession team. I would look more to their giveaway/takeaway numbers. They aren't where they are by accident and they top it off by getting Staal back. St. Louis would be almost unprecedented as they missed the playoffs last year. It is extremely rare to go from out of the playoffs all the way to the cup. The Canes did it, but it was over the lockout and they were a finalist the year before they tanked (exceptional but explainable).

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01-23-2012, 02:50 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Nashville is historically a second half team. Watch for their numbers to improve. (Same is true for Carolina and Anaheim but they are too far out of it.) NYR is a transition team, not a possession team. I would look more to their giveaway/takeaway numbers. They aren't where they are by accident and they top it off by getting Staal back. St. Louis would be almost unprecedented as they missed the playoffs last year. It is extremely rare to go from out of the playoffs all the way to the cup. The Canes did it, but it was over the lockout and they were a finalist the year before they tanked (exceptional but explainable).
The Predators look to be a dramatically worse team than they've been in years. I wouldn't bank on a second-half turnaround; it's far more likely they get significantly worse. I've linked to the study enough times to annoy everyone here and then some so I'll refrain, but score-tied Corsi in one half of the season is a better predictor of goal differential in the other half than goal differential in the initial half. Nashville has the second-worst score-tied Corsi ratio in the NHL. And this isn't something that's symptomatic of Trotz's style of play - they were the ninth-best team in the NHL by that metric last season, eighth-best the year before, mediocre in 08-09 when they missed the playoffs and then eighth-best again in 07-08. They're just a flat-out bad team this year and even if you don't put stock into the advanced metrics, they've been outscored 81-86 at even strength. They've been living off a power play so far this season that's in turn been living off a ridiculous shooting percentage that they can't hope to sustain. I doubt they'll make the playoffs let alone contend for the Cup.

I don't buy that the Rangers are all that much better than their mediocre possession numbers indicate. They're posting essentially the same possession numbers they have for the past few seasons and each of those years ended with fairly similar results - playoff bubble team, either just in or just outside. I think Lundqvist and especially Biron's SV% are due for a regression, as is the Rangers' shooting % at even strength. They have a guy tracking scoring chances for them and I believe they're underwater based on that as well.

St. Louis could be another exception. They were incredibly unlucky to miss the playoffs last year - Halak put up very mediocre numbers and then got injured while the team lost a lot of one-goal games which is more an indicator of poor luck than lack of skill. They've been incredible this season and while I wouldn't pick them to win the Cup I see them as very similar to the 08-09 Hawks who made the playoffs for the first time in a while with a young team and advanced to the Conference Finals. I'd definitely pick them to get that far depending on their matchups.

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01-23-2012, 02:55 AM
  #32
Korolyuk15
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No they can't...still don't have a game breaker who can completely control the game and Niemi is yet another average sharks goaltender (like nabokov)

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01-23-2012, 02:58 AM
  #33
Led Zappa
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No they can't...still don't have a game breaker who can completely control the game and Niemi is yet another average sharks goaltender (like nabokov)
Just out of curiosity, who was the game breaker on the Bruins?

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01-23-2012, 03:03 AM
  #34
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Tim Thomas...they drew a lot of energy from him with every flopping save

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01-23-2012, 03:07 AM
  #35
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Just out of curiosity, who was the game breaker on the Bruins?
Luongo.







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01-23-2012, 03:07 AM
  #36
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Luongo.








haha

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01-23-2012, 03:10 AM
  #37
Led Zappa
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Luongo.






Tou·ché

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01-23-2012, 03:23 AM
  #38
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Can? Why not.

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01-23-2012, 03:26 AM
  #39
Led Zappa
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Horton. didn't he have like 3 ot goals?
That wasn't a question requesting a statistical expression.

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01-23-2012, 02:24 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
The Predators look to be a dramatically worse team than they've been in years. I wouldn't bank on a second-half turnaround; it's far more likely they get significantly worse. I've linked to the study enough times to annoy everyone here and then some so I'll refrain, but score-tied Corsi in one half of the season is a better predictor of goal differential in the other half than goal differential in the initial half. Nashville has the second-worst score-tied Corsi ratio in the NHL. And this isn't something that's symptomatic of Trotz's style of play - they were the ninth-best team in the NHL by that metric last season, eighth-best the year before, mediocre in 08-09 when they missed the playoffs and then eighth-best again in 07-08. They're just a flat-out bad team this year and even if you don't put stock into the advanced metrics, they've been outscored 81-86 at even strength. They've been living off a power play so far this season that's in turn been living off a ridiculous shooting percentage that they can't hope to sustain. I doubt they'll make the playoffs let alone contend for the Cup.

I don't buy that the Rangers are all that much better than their mediocre possession numbers indicate. They're posting essentially the same possession numbers they have for the past few seasons and each of those years ended with fairly similar results - playoff bubble team, either just in or just outside. I think Lundqvist and especially Biron's SV% are due for a regression, as is the Rangers' shooting % at even strength. They have a guy tracking scoring chances for them and I believe they're underwater based on that as well.

St. Louis could be another exception. They were incredibly unlucky to miss the playoffs last year - Halak put up very mediocre numbers and then got injured while the team lost a lot of one-goal games which is more an indicator of poor luck than lack of skill. They've been incredible this season and while I wouldn't pick them to win the Cup I see them as very similar to the 08-09 Hawks who made the playoffs for the first time in a while with a young team and advanced to the Conference Finals. I'd definitely pick them to get that far depending on their matchups.
Possession isn't everything. Teams that are transition can win the silver thingy despite being disadvantaged in possession. It's harder but not impossible for them to win. The idea is to pick those teams that can push transition hockey to that limit. Those teams that are performing as transition teams are identifiable by their weaker possession numbers and sometimes a small uptick in SH% (transition opportunities yielding a slightly higher percentage). It's a forest and trees thing again. When, where and why do the outliers occur. This can be applied both to the Preds and Rags.

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01-23-2012, 02:32 PM
  #41
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Luongo.







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01-23-2012, 03:01 PM
  #42
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I feel like this core group has missed their shot. I think 06 was the year this team could have won it with Joe Thornton and Patty leading the way with all the key role players that had stepped up that year.

I can't see Joe and Patty dominating top lines in the playoffs, and I think that's what it would take to win it all.

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01-23-2012, 03:54 PM
  #43
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01-23-2012, 04:16 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Possession isn't everything. Teams that are transition can win the silver thingy despite being disadvantaged in possession. It's harder but not impossible for them to win. The idea is to pick those teams that can push transition hockey to that limit. Those teams that are performing as transition teams are identifiable by their weaker possession numbers and sometimes a small uptick in SH% (transition opportunities yielding a slightly higher percentage). It's a forest and trees thing again. When, where and why do the outliers occur. This can be applied both to the Preds and Rags.
The #1 possession team in the league the past four seasons have been Vancouver, Chicago, Detroit and Detroit. Two have won the Cup, the other two have lost in Game 7 (and if you looked at Pittsburgh's numbers the year they won solely post-Bylsma their possession numbers were only slightly behind the Wings').

Again, if shooting percentage at the team level were a true talent, teams would be able to sustain it from year to year that hasn't been the case over the past four seasons.

The Rangers have improved at possession a lot since the beginning of the season but they're still pretty much league-average. Nashville on the other hand has been truly dreadful and as much as they have thrived on using the trap to spring transition opportunities in the past, they've been a top 10 possession team in the NHL each year they've made the playoffs. And even ignoring the advanced numbers, teams that are getting outscored at even strength ~45 games into the season just aren't a good bet to get anywhere near the Cup. They're awful this season and I just don't see them making it although I wouldn't be shocked because the bubble teams in the West are horrible.

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01-23-2012, 04:23 PM
  #45
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ITT: Nabokov was "average" and Niemi is amazing.

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01-23-2012, 04:27 PM
  #46
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ITT: Nabokov was "average" and Niemi is amazing.
Hyperbole at its best.

Nabokov was above average, so is Niemi. I honestly put them pretty close to one another skill wise, with Nabby getting a slight edge. Niemi however is a lot cheaper, and more durable considering their ages.

Man people forget the Nabby *****ing threads. In which, btw, I defended Nabby just like I do Niemi. Goaltending is not, and has not been for a very long time, an issue for San Jose. We don't even know what it's like to have goaltending problems honestly.

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01-23-2012, 04:33 PM
  #47
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Hyperbole at its best.

Nabokov was above average, so is Niemi. I honestly put them pretty close to one another skill wise, with Nabby getting a slight edge. Niemi however is a lot cheaper, and more durable considering their ages.

Man people forget the Nabby *****ing threads. In which, btw, I defended Nabby just like I do Niemi. Goaltending is not, and has not been for a very long time, an issue for San Jose. We don't even know what it's like to have goaltending problems honestly.
Prove that Nabby was above average. For five years between 2005 and 2010 he posted a SV% of 0.921 at even strength. League-average even-strength SV% over that time period was 0.920. So, yeah, I suppose you could make the argument he was 0.01 above average.

After the lockout, Nabokov was never anything more than a mediocre goalie being paid like an elite one. Public perception of him is heavily inflated by the fact that the Sharks were terrific defensively so his goals against average was always fairly low and they never had a competent backup (in addition to being an all-around awesome team) so his win totals were high.

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01-23-2012, 04:49 PM
  #48
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Prove that Nabby was above average. For five years between 2005 and 2010 he posted a SV% of 0.921 at even strength. League-average even-strength SV% over that time period was 0.920. So, yeah, I suppose you could make the argument he was 0.01 above average.

After the lockout, Nabokov was never anything more than a mediocre goalie being paid like an elite one. Public perception of him is heavily inflated by the fact that the Sharks were terrific defensively so his goals against average was always fairly low and they never had a competent backup (in addition to being an all-around awesome team) so his win totals were high.
Not really interested in getting in that debate, it's beside the point and its history. My point was that Nabby was not better than Niemi by much, if any. People just have a short memory.

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01-23-2012, 04:53 PM
  #49
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The #1 possession team in the league the past four seasons have been Vancouver, Chicago, Detroit and Detroit. Two have won the Cup, the other two have lost in Game 7 (and if you looked at Pittsburgh's numbers the year they won solely post-Bylsma their possession numbers were only slightly behind the Wings').

Again, if shooting percentage at the team level were a true talent, teams would be able to sustain it from year to year that hasn't been the case over the past four seasons.

The Rangers have improved at possession a lot since the beginning of the season but they're still pretty much league-average. Nashville on the other hand has been truly dreadful and as much as they have thrived on using the trap to spring transition opportunities in the past, they've been a top 10 possession team in the NHL each year they've made the playoffs. And even ignoring the advanced numbers, teams that are getting outscored at even strength ~45 games into the season just aren't a good bet to get anywhere near the Cup. They're awful this season and I just don't see them making it although I wouldn't be shocked because the bubble teams in the West are horrible.
Go back farther. The two transition winners were Canes and Bolts. And the Canes had some possession to their game. It is harder to do it through transition, but what I am talking about is when the outliers are successful and I look to what makes them successful. There are a couple of others that have beaten the odds and the transition explanation is a part of the explanation (along with goaltending) for Montreal's run which you have downplayed as an exception. Buffalo has used it as well in the past (Drury/Briere era).

My guess on Nashville for their consistently better second halfs is that Trotz's system is a bit to learn and that they improve as a team each year in playing it with their new faces. I realize they have weaknesses (defensive second pair and overworked goalie), but I can't put it past Trotz to work his magic again. You can't look at whole year totals for second half teams; you have to follow them and watch their stats move each year.

And please look at giveaway/takeaway on the Rangers. It is very indicative of what they do.

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01-23-2012, 05:14 PM
  #50
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Not really interested in getting in that debate, it's beside the point and its history. My point was that Nabby was not better than Niemi by much, if any. People just have a short memory.
Well I agree with you there (I think?). Niemi, at least based on his results, has been much better than Nabokov ever was post-lockout. Whether or not Niemi declines from here on out is anyone's guess.

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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Go back farther. The two transition winners were Canes and Bolts. And the Canes had some possession to their game. It is harder to do it through transition, but what I am talking about is when the outliers are successful and I look to what makes them successful. There are a couple of others that have beaten the odds and the transition explanation is a part of the explanation (along with goaltending) for Montreal's run which you have downplayed as an exception. Buffalo has used it as well in the past (Drury/Briere era).

My guess on Nashville for their consistently better second halfs is that Trotz's system is a bit to learn and that they improve as a team each year in playing it with their new faces. I realize they have weaknesses (defensive second pair and overworked goalie), but I can't put it past Trotz to work his magic again. You can't look at whole year totals for second half teams; you have to follow them and watch their stats move each year.

And please look at giveaway/takeaway on the Rangers. It is very indicative of what they do.
Tampa was an excellent possession team the year they won the Cup. They had a better shot differential than any team other than New Jersey.

The 06 Hurricanes are quite possibly the worst post-expansion team to win the Stanley Cup. That entire year was bonkers in every way imaginable and the Finals matchup was emblematic of the season as a whole. Neither team even remotely deserved to be there. If you disregard empty netters and shootout goals across the board, Carolina's goal% of 52.4% was 11th in the league and that was despite playing in, top-to-bottom, one of the worst divisions in post-expansion history. Repeat that postseason 100 times and I doubt Carolina would win the Cup again even once. Everything went right for them that entire year, down to Koivu, Buffalo's entire defense corps and then Roloson all getting injured during their playoff series against those teams. Not a blueprint worth following by any means.

The Habs' run in 2010 was a fluke. I don't care if a team's offense is centered on transition chances or possession; the ultimate goal is to get more scoring chances than the other guys, regardless of how that's accomplished. I do believe it's possible (at least theoretically) to out-chance a team despite getting outshot by them in the short term but that was definitely not the case for Montreal in 2010. This is a terrific read breaking down the scoring chances for each team in their series against Pittsburgh and here's a look at similar data for the series against Washington.

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