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Old
01-25-2012, 12:28 PM
  #101
nickschultzfan
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Again, all see is a lot of conjecture. Which is bascally what those stats amount to.

I don't have much of an issue with saying Zidlicky is playing pretty poor. But at the same time I have a hard time looking at the blueline and saying that anyone is playing at an adequate NHL level consistently . It's just become pretty easy to make Zidlicky and Zanon out to be the scapegoats throughout the whole process.

As for whether or not Leipold cares about what he's paying whom, I'm fairly sure he just wants a better product. However they get to that point would work for him. Highly doubt any salary on this team gets in the way of bringing any sort of high end player/contract. And if that were the case, there's others of concern on roster as well.
Except the fact that the Wild blueline has played massively better when Zidlicky is out, whether that's due to injury or being a healthly scratch.

And its completely terrifying watching Zanon try to break out or stay with a quick rush.

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01-25-2012, 12:31 PM
  #102
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Except the fact that the Wild blueline has played massively better when Zidlicky is out, whether that's due to injury or being a healthly scratch.
It's become humorous at this point.

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Originally Posted by nickschultzfan View Post
And its completely terrifying watching Zanon try to break out or stay with a quick rush.
You mean Nick Schutlz here, right?

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01-25-2012, 12:37 PM
  #103
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This isn't "conjecture"...

Zidlicky is earning 4 million per season both in Cap and Salary.
His point production is down.
He has yet to score a goal more than halfway through the season. For an offensive defenseman, that is arguably not good.

I don't particularly care what Leipold cares about when it comes to roster management. There is a reason why owners are not the GM. The GM cares, and should. The coach cares, but only insofar as what roster he can ice to have the most success.

Obviously, Lundin isn't showing the coaches anything to warrant putting him in the lineup.

Zanon has become the "least objectionable" choice between him and Lundin.

Falk has out played both Stoner and Zanon recently.

We originally traded a 2nd round pick and Ryan Jones to acquire Zidlicky. I don't care if he sits in the press box for the rest of the season. His NTC is up at the draft and we can (and should) move him them. However, I would think that he wants to play, therefore, would waive his NTC.

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01-25-2012, 12:40 PM
  #104
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Schultz has the last several games gone back to "invisible" while Zanon is sticking out extremely poorly.

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01-25-2012, 12:44 PM
  #105
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Schultz has the last several games gone back to "invisible" while Zanon is sticking out extremely poorly.
That's my opinion as well. I think having his brother on the last trip out east helped Schultz get his game back in shape. He is no longer attempting to be something he isn't.

Frankly, he was our best defenseman in Toronto and last night he had a few non-invisible-in-a-good-way moments. Otherwise, invisible.

Zanon and the puck don't get along at all, when it comes near his stick. It is more like he's spent so much time blocking shots that the only piece of equipment that he feels comfortable playing the puck with are his shin pads...

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01-25-2012, 12:48 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by bozak911 View Post
This isn't "conjecture"...

Zidlicky is earning 4 million per season both in Cap and Salary.
His point production is down.
He has yet to score a goal more than halfway through the season. For an offensive defenseman, that is arguably not good.

I don't particularly care what Leipold cares about when it comes to roster management. There is a reason why owners are not the GM. The GM cares, and should. The coach cares, but only insofar as what roster he can ice to have the most success.

Obviously, Lundin isn't showing the coaches anything to warrant putting him in the lineup.

Zanon has become the "least objectionable" choice between him and Lundin.

Falk has out played both Stoner and Zanon recently.

We originally traded a 2nd round pick and Ryan Jones to acquire Zidlicky. I don't care if he sits in the press box for the rest of the season. His NTC is up at the draft and we can (and should) move him them. However, I would think that he wants to play, therefore, would waive his NTC.
i thought his ntc was up halfway through his deal?

still a 3rd is better at this point

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01-25-2012, 12:48 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
If we can save $4M in salary it makes it that much easier for Fletch to sell Leipold on adding a quality UFA. Doesn't matter if they're up against the cap or not.

What do you think Leipold's opinion of having $5-6M in salary sitting in the press box each night?

And no, Zidlicky is not an upgrade over any of our defensemen, including the AHL'ers. He doesn't add anything to the team.

Record with Zidlicky: 12-15-7 (0.456 win %)
Record without Zids: 12-3-0 (0.800 win %)

If that's not demonstration of negative value, I don't know what is.
That establishes nothing even insofar as correlation between winning percentage and Zidlicky's TOI.

Record pre-Bouchard injury: 20-7-3 (0.667 win %)
Record post-Bouchard injury: 4-11-4 (0.211 win %)

That's a differential of 45.6% as opposed to your differential of 44.7% (I converted to actual win percentage rather than your points %). In terms of points per game it's a difference of 0.801 PPG versus 0.688 PPG.

The with/without Zidlicky comparison is likely a byproduct of the pre/post Bouchard injury issue combined with timing (Zid's return was the game after Bouchard's injury).

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01-25-2012, 12:50 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by bozak911 View Post
This isn't "conjecture"...

Zidlicky is earning 4 million per season both in Cap and Salary.
His point production is down.
He has yet to score a goal more than halfway through the season. For an offensive defenseman, that is arguably not good.

I don't particularly care what Leipold cares about when it comes to roster management. There is a reason why owners are not the GM. The GM cares, and should. The coach cares, but only insofar as what roster he can ice to have the most success.

Obviously, Lundin isn't showing the coaches anything to warrant putting him in the lineup.

Zanon has become the "least objectionable" choice between him and Lundin.

Falk has out played both Stoner and Zanon recently.

We originally traded a 2nd round pick and Ryan Jones to acquire Zidlicky. I don't care if he sits in the press box for the rest of the season. His NTC is up at the draft and we can (and should) move him them. However, I would think that he wants to play, therefore, would waive his NTC.
What we paid for Zid is completely sunk cost, and to bring it up in a discussion as to his future is to severely weaken your credibility in discussing the situation. Also, Zid's NTC expired 3 weeks ago.

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01-25-2012, 12:54 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by bozak911 View Post
This isn't "conjecture"...

Zidlicky is earning 4 million per season both in Cap and Salary.
His point production is down.
He has yet to score a goal more than halfway through the season. For an offensive defenseman, that is arguably not good.
Directly attributing team play/record to whether or not Zidlicky is in or out of the line-up absolutely is conjecture. It's pretty much the definition. There's a lot of variables at play to pin that upon one guy. Even if he's having a bad year.

Schultz is at $500K less and provides absolutely nothing on this roster. He has horrid gap control, brutal passer (When's the last time you've seen break the play out of the zone? You're at this games most of the time, you should be able to see what hes missing...), and his play in the defensive zone (for which is being paid) is at unacceptable level. Hell, the guy has been on the ice for about half the goals the Wild have given up all year. I'm sorry, but there's nothing redeeming about what the Wild are getting from Schultz. But since Russo and the like aren't out trying to tear down guys they're buddy-buddy with, so he escapes a lot of the general fan disgust. He's about as big of a problem as anyone on this roster.

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01-25-2012, 01:12 PM
  #110
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What we paid for Zid is completely sunk cost, and to bring it up in a discussion as to his future is to severely weaken your credibility in discussing the situation. Also, Zid's NTC expired 3 weeks ago.
Different response from Russo...

I asked when Zidlicky's NTC was up and his response was "at the draft".

/shrug

As for bringing up what we paid for him? I think it is pertinent to remember what we paid several years ago. A 2nd and a grinder prospect. He is older now and has decreased value from what we paid for him based on his current season performance. Therefore, the fallacy to expect more from a different team than what we paid for him is a valid point of this discussion.

I'm doubting he would net us what we paid for him, which is a sunk cost. I agree it is a sunk cost. That was his "value" several years ago. His value now isn't that high now and if someone thinks he can be part of a major package to another team?

They'd be wrong.

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01-25-2012, 01:18 PM
  #111
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Directly attributing team play/record to whether or not Zidlicky is in or out of the line-up absolutely is conjecture. It's pretty much the definition. There's a lot of variables at play to pin that upon one guy. Even if he's having a bad year.
Bah. I'm rushing my points and not making them clearly today...

Yes, all of that is conjecture...

What I meant wasn't conjecture were the three facts I posted about him, i.e...
Quote:
Zidlicky is earning 4 million per season both in Cap and Salary.
His point production is down.
He has yet to score a goal more than halfway through the season. For an offensive defenseman, that is arguably not good.
I'm not dogging on him that much. There are plenty of other factors that caused the slump. Laying it at the feet of Zidlicky is pretty... laughable.

Understanding that a) we had a hard road schedule hit us... b) we were without 4 (or 5) top 6 forwards for a stretch... c) the roster we had just plain didn't show up in a few games...

It is just easy to bag on the guy because of coincidental events.

Which hurt us more? Zidlicky coming back or dropping from two scoring threat lines to one scoring threat player?

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01-25-2012, 01:25 PM
  #112
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Going back and reading that again, I see the point you were making. My fault.

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01-25-2012, 02:12 PM
  #113
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I'd argue the same thing Boz, that Butch was a huge piece...but clearly the team has been better the last two games than they have in the last several weeks. And I saw much better bits out of our D than I have in the past as well.

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01-25-2012, 02:22 PM
  #114
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I'd argue the same thing Boz, that Butch was a huge piece...but clearly the team has been better the last two games than they have in the last several weeks. And I saw much better bits out of our D than I have in the past as well.
We've certainly been better, but we've also seen 20% of the roster overhauled. Specifically, we put Prosser in with Falk on defense, which magically makes him into "good Falk" every time, and we revamped the organization of the forward lines. Instead of "hiding" the AHL players, we've put them all together, and given the vets other vets to play with.

Speaking of Prosser, did anyone look at TOI for last game? Top 3 defensemen:

Prosser - 24:38
Spurgeon - 21:18
Falk - 19:58

Even without special teams, Prosser had more ES time than Falk by a minute and a half, and over the next highest by two and a half.

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01-25-2012, 03:19 PM
  #115
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I think that's a big part of it. Prosser is typically very good on defense. A lot like Scandella on Zoloft (fewer highs, fewer lows).

Still I do think there's something to Zidlicky's game that is off.

Look at his offensive zone starts (rank in terms of most minutes / number of D men with 20gp):

2011-12: 52.6% (1 / 8)
2010-11: 46.0% (4 / 9)
2009-10: 45.5% (5 / 7)
2008-09: 56.0% (1 / 8)

Because Yeo and Lemaire are smart NHL calibre coaches, they sheltered the hell out of Zidlicky, giving him more offensive zone starts than any other D man. Richards of course didn't manage any of that.

Quality of competition:

2011-12: -0.023 (6 / 8)
2010-11: -0.024 (5 / 9)
2009-10: 0.031 (2 / 7)
2008-09: -0.014 (5 / 9)

Again, Lemaire kept him away from the better forwards much of the time, Richards didn't his first year, and it looks like he was kept away much of the time this and last year (Wilson's influence?).

Basically, I'm not seeing a big difference in that he's facing tougher players or harder ice time this year than in the past.

His ES production is about average over his time here in Minnesota:

Even strength points per 60 minutes TOI:

2011-12: 0.89 (1 / 8)
2010-11: 1.10 (2 / 9)
2009-10: 0.77 (2 / 7)
2008-09: 0.81 (2 / 9)

Power play points per 60 minutes TOI:

2011-12: 1.10 (3 / 8)
2010-11: 3.77 (3 / 9)
2009-10: 4.98 (1 / 7)
2008-09: 4.20 (2 / 9)

And that's where we see the problem. The power play has been HORRENDOUS this year. Only three defensemen have points on the PP and at rates far below normal.

Zids is averaging 1.12 shots per game, which is only down 3% from last year. His career shooting percentage is 7.1% which would equate to nearly 3 goals this year. So he is snakebit.

So there's a billion stats. See what you can figure out.

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01-25-2012, 03:48 PM
  #116
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Going back and reading that again, I see the point you were making. My fault.
Nah. I can see how it could be read that way.

I'm neck deep in spreadsheets today in doing a data migration document. Frankly, I'm a little pissy about it and just rushing it. The dude that is the highly paid Digineer contractor is supposed to have this done already...

...actually...

Two months ago...



So a lot of my points are getting muddled, I think... See squidz response about me bringing up what we gave up for a younger (and better) Zidlicky. Meant it as a dose of reality for those that think Zidz = top-6 forward...

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01-25-2012, 03:54 PM
  #117
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I'd argue the same thing Boz, that Butch was a huge piece...but clearly the team has been better the last two games than they have in the last several weeks. And I saw much better bits out of our D than I have in the past as well.
I'd argue that a huge part of "turning the corner" from suckage to mediocrity was that Yeo finally got his head out of his ass...

Lets see... we have two "scoring" forwards left... I know! Let's do a #FireToddRichards move and throw them out on the same line!

/facepalm

Splitting up Seto and Heatley... makes the other teams have to shut down two lines, instead of one. That opens up the possibility of our third and fourth lines actually doing some damage against the other teams third and fourth lines, instead of being victimized by the other teams 2nd lines against our grinders...

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01-25-2012, 04:09 PM
  #118
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I'd argue that a huge part of "turning the corner" from suckage to mediocrity was that Yeo finally got his head out of his ass...

Lets see... we have two "scoring" forwards left... I know! Let's do a #FireToddRichards move and throw them out on the same line!

/facepalm

Splitting up Seto and Heatley... makes the other teams have to shut down two lines, instead of one. That opens up the possibility of our third and fourth lines actually doing some damage against the other teams third and fourth lines, instead of being victimized by the other teams 2nd lines against our grinders...
That's a tad harsh - rookie coach, dealing with incredible injuries and lack of depth, appears to find a way to right the ship, for now at least: no mean feat.

The optimism with which the Wild played last night was very similar to late November early December.

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01-25-2012, 04:33 PM
  #119
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I'd almost trade Zanon and Zidlicky for Wade Redden just to get rid of them.







Kidding.

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01-25-2012, 04:34 PM
  #120
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I'd like to see Scandella back up and Zanon sitting.

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01-25-2012, 04:53 PM
  #121
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Eh...depends on how Scandy's doing. Seemed he was in danger of losing confidence and going down the Shep road of crap.

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01-25-2012, 05:32 PM
  #122
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Eh...depends on how Scandy's doing. Seemed he was in danger of losing confidence and going down the Shep road of crap.
I don't see that. I see him maybe having stunted offensive abilities, but not become a bust.

If the rest of the team wasn't also complete crap for the last month, Scandella could have found his game again.

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01-25-2012, 06:15 PM
  #123
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Scandella was taking on too much personal responsibility for the defense, and was therefore trying to do too much. Doing too much resulted in mistakes, which resulted in more personal responsibility, which resulted in trying to do more, which resulted in...

Fletcher sent him down to stop that feedback loop. Assuming he keeps up pace from his most recent 3 games, it seems he's getting back into the swing of good play.

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01-25-2012, 07:26 PM
  #124
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You guys are arguing about whether to get rid of Zids or Schultz. If I was in charge I'd get rid of both of em' (also Zanon).

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01-25-2012, 08:28 PM
  #125
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Originally Posted by squidz View Post
Scandella was taking on too much personal responsibility for the defense, and was therefore trying to do too much. Doing too much resulted in mistakes, which resulted in more personal responsibility, which resulted in trying to do more, which resulted in...

Fletcher sent him down to stop that feedback loop. Assuming he keeps up pace from his most recent 3 games, it seems he's getting back into the swing of good play.
at the end of the day, they aren't going to wait forever for him to develop the confidence he needs at this level. He has more potential than Gillies and is a better hockey player, certainly, but it's the same problem that kept Gillies from being even a fourth liner here. I don't expect Fletcher to let him stay here until his trade value drops to zero--so how long do we give him to get his **** together? Yeo constantly preaches the importance of "responding" the right way, and Scandella seems to have been singled out among this crapfest as having dealt particularly poorly with bad games. How long do they give Scandella? All of next year?

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