Sportsclubstats.com runs simulations (millions of them, either weighted to reflect the differences in quality between teams or not...your choice) to project the probability of various outcomes. When they say a team is a lock to be in, it's because it was an event that didn't happen in any of their projections...not because it's a mathematical certainty.
Their current weighted projection gives the Blues a 0.000000386% chance of missing the playoffs after running 259,400,000 simulations...with the Blues missing once in all those millions of simulations with an 0-12-0 record down the stretch. Their 50/50 projection did not record a single simulation out of 261,400,000 that resulted in the Blues missing the playoffs.
I believe that to be the realistic likelihood of the Blues missing, but 99 isn't even a magic number. I can get every single one of nine teams not the Blues to 100 by using loser points. Anyone can look at the iteration I used a couple posts ago and easily add more loser points to push them all higher. Every single one of those nine teams loses at least two games in regulation in my last listing.
I believe that to be the realistic likelihood of the Blues missing, but 99 isn't even a magic number. I can get every single one of nine teams not the Blues to 100 by using loser points. Anyone can look at the iteration I used a couple posts ago and easily add more loser points to push them all higher. Every single one of those nine teams loses at least two games in regulation in my last listing.
I understand. I'm just trying to clarify what it is that sportsclubstats.com does. People seem to be misinterpreting how their numbers are derived, and ultimately what they mean.
I understand. I'm just trying to clarify what it is that sportsclubstats.com does. People seem to be misinterpreting how their numbers are derived, and ultimately what they mean.
They do the same things we did in 2008 with fivethirtyeight predicting electoral outcomes based on polling. Running tons of simulations based on polling outcomes.
the blues have gone beyond our expectations. I expected around 95-105 points by the end of the season and here they sit with 97 points. Keep at it boys.
I predicted (before the season) that The Blues would finish with 105 points. They have 97, currently. Let's say that they finish out 8-4-1. They'll finish with 114 points (same as their 1999-2000 total). That may, or may not have them in The League or Conference lead.
I speculated 98 points at the beginning of the year and changed to 104 at the All-star break. They have 12 games remaining and 8 of those matter, there against playoff bound teams or teams that have a good shot as of today’s standings. There are three more with a long shot chance to get into the playoffs and the last has nothing to lose.
After doing some quick math I came up with 14 more points putting them at 111, which might not get them the division crown. But I liked that number not just because I like the number 11 but it sure didn’t hurt the Cards.
If they play unbelievable hockey in those 8 games that really matter (they could be like playoffs games) and they go 6-2-0 then I have them getting 115 points and that should get them one of the top seeds in the conference.
I know this might sound weird but I really wouldn’t mind if they don’t win the President’s Trophy, my reasoning is I just don’t think that kind of pressure will help this young team.
Wow, I've never seen Detroit fans so touchy on the main board. I think they realize their chances at 1st in the West are slim, and aren't too thrilled about drawing Nashville in the 1st round. (I don't blame them for that.)
I've got no sympathy for the crying over their injuries. A couple guys out less than a month, every team has to absorb that. The Blues certainly have.
Next five games are all against non playoff teams. All on the road yes, but the bonus is we get five struggling bottom 14 teams.
Another road trip like the last 5-1 trip hopefully. 5-2, 6-1 even.
To be honest, you can make for and against arguments for facing most teams at this point in the season. The Kings and Coyotes are both in the middle of the battle for the 7th and 8th spots, so they are going to be very tough. The other 3 might not be in the playoff hunt, but they can play without any pressure and the Lightning and Ducks in particular have some very dangerous players.
Finish the last 5 of this road trip with 6 points and I'll be happy, anything more is a welcome bonus.
Four of the Blues' next six opponents (CAR, ANA, PHX, NSH) will be playing their 4th in 6. The Carolina game is for both teams, and it's the last time this season that's true for the Blues, who are 7-5-2 in them. The final Columbus game is the 4th in 6 for the Jackets.
Four of the Blues' next six opponents (CAR, ANA, PHX, NSH) will be playing their 4th in 6. The Carolina game is for both teams, and it's the last time this season that's true for the Blues, who are 7-5-2 in them. The final Columbus game is the 4th in 6 for the Jackets.
well that definitely balances out the amount of road games that we have
Certainly with Detroit still gimped up, the Blues will win the Central. At worst, 2-seed. Who do we want the opponent to be?
3. DAL .585 +12, 33 ROW, 11 GR
6. CHI .592 +13, 33 ROW, 11 GR
7. PHX .570 +10, 30 ROW, 11 GR 8. SJ .565 +9, 28 ROW, 13 GR
9. CGY .557 +8, 30 ROW, 12 GR
10. LA .557 +8, 28 ROW, 12 GR
11. COL .556 +8, 29 ROW, 10 GR
It could be any one of those seven teams very easily. I'd love San Jose to miss, just because of how much it would bother their fans. But also I wouldn't mind seeing them 8th. The Sharks are merely four forwards deep and the Blues match up very well with them. Blues are faster and bigger. Plus we have stanchions, refs and ice. Blues President's Trophy, Sharks 8th? An exorcism?
Very much an exorcism. No better team to face off against to rid ourselves of our demons and our curse. If we finish with 114 points and play San Jose, it would either mean doom or glory.
– Round 1, San Jose as President's Trophy winners.
– Round 2, Detroit for all the second-round losses in the Pronger Era
– Round 3, Vancouver, never beaten them in the playoffs
– Cup Finals, Boston, with Pietrangelo scoring the Cup-winner in OT flying through the air.
– Round 1, San Jose as President's Trophy winners.
– Round 2, Detroit for all the second-round losses in the Pronger Era
– Round 3, Vancouver, never beaten them in the playoffs
– Cup Finals, Boston, with Pietrangelo scoring the Cup-winner in OT flying through the air.
Now that would make for one hell of an exorcism. Now just figure out a way to deal with all of our roster move blunders, as Hitchcock covered our coaching mistakes, like Bowman for one.
Now that would make for one hell of an exorcism. Now just figure out a way to deal with all of our roster move blunders, as Hitchcock covered our coaching mistakes, like Bowman for one.
Blues stand pat at deadline and add Schwartz out of college a la Rod the Bod.
– Round 1, San Jose as President's Trophy winners.
– Round 2, Detroit for all the second-round losses in the Pronger Era
– Round 3, Vancouver, never beaten them in the playoffs
– Cup Finals, Boston, with Pietrangelo scoring the Cup-winner in OT flying through the air.
Certainly with Detroit still gimped up, the Blues will win the Central. At worst, 2-seed. Who do we want the opponent to be?
3. DAL .585 +12, 33 ROW, 11 GR
6. CHI .592 +13, 33 ROW, 11 GR
7. PHX .570 +10, 30 ROW, 11 GR 8. SJ .565 +9, 28 ROW, 13 GR
9. CGY .557 +8, 30 ROW, 12 GR
10. LA .557 +8, 28 ROW, 12 GR
11. COL .556 +8, 29 ROW, 10 GR
It could be any one of those seven teams very easily. I'd love San Jose to miss, just because of how much it would bother their fans. But also I wouldn't mind seeing them 8th. The Sharks are merely four forwards deep and the Blues match up very well with them. Blues are faster and bigger. Plus we have stanchions, refs and ice. Blues President's Trophy, Sharks 8th? An exorcism?
I want to face Phoenix in the first round simply because I love the thought of two teams with ownership issues facing off in the playoffs while teams that spend a lot more will be sitting at home.
Or Calgary, because I enjoy watching Iginla, and I'm sure the battles that he and Baackes would have would be quite enjoyable to watch.
I want to face Phoenix in the first round simply because I love the thought of two teams with ownership issues facing off in the playoffs while teams that spend a lot more will be sitting at home.
Or Calgary, because I enjoy watching Iginla, and I'm sure the battles that he and Baackes would have would be quite enjoyable to watch.
I might want to face Phoenix least. I think the Blues would win because they're more physical. But Mike Smith has been great for them this season and he's capable of stealing playoff games. They have a solid, solid defense that can transition and produce points and their own Backes in Shane Doan. Vrbata can score, Whitney is still effective, and they have a bunch of supporting cast guys who can step up and be the hero on any given night. I've watched a lot of all these teams over the past couple months and Phoenix is much improved from when we last saw them to start 2012. They won in Vancouver tonight and it wasn't like the Canucks rolled over.
– Round 1, San Jose as President's Trophy winners.
– Round 2, Detroit for all the second-round losses in the Pronger Era
– Round 3, Vancouver, never beaten them in the playoffs
– Cup Finals, Boston, with Pietrangelo scoring the Cup-winner in OT flying through the air.
