IMO, there are two players that are most responsible if we're picking in the top 5 again this year. Grabner and Bailey. This is about the latter.
This kid is an enigma. He was drafted to be a second line, playmaking center with strong intangibles. Well, through almost all of last year and the first half of this year, he made me want to put my foot through my TV. More of late, he made one of the scariest passes up the middle of the ice in the second Toronto game that no NHL player should ever make. Seems like in the last couple of games, he's cooled off and has regressed into some sloppy play.
Heres the deal with this guy...watching him, it seems like he loves the cute stuff too much. Always thinking he can make the subtle play/pass, but his skill level doesn't allow. Kinda like he thinks the game at JT's level but plays it much lower.
What most alarming is the points:
Year GP G A P +/- PPG
2009-10 73 16 19 35 5 .479
2010-11 70 11 17 28 -13 .4
2011-12 48 5 8 13 -12 .271
That .271 is both alarming and scary as hell. I know his play improved for a pretty good duration but was held off the scoresheet, but thats not really acceptable for where the was drafted and what the team needs him to be.
That said, regardless of whether or not you think the kid was rushed, where do the Islanders go from here? What happens in the offseason if this continues? How patient can the Islanders afford to be? Does he need a fresh start to become a better player?
I would agree with you about he may think his subtle plays may work but I dont think he has that kind of confidence. He may need to play with some elite players for once to get better, But until he shows he can produce or atleast be consistent he wont get that chance for a possibilty of slowing that line down. His points decreasing every year is very alarming( unless he is becoming a more complete player - not the case)
I may be in the minority here but I've been more impressed than not with Bailey this year. He's been playing with a lot of confidence lately and while it hasn't translated to point production, I believe there is a place for him here.
I may be in the minority here but I've been more impressed than not with Bailey this year. He's been playing with a lot of confidence lately and while it hasn't translated to point production, I believe there is a place for him here.
Kinda like JT was before he went on his point scoring parade.
Bailey tries to do too much. He's the type of player that will always struggle with offensive production because #1 he's just not that skilled. Secondly, as mentioned, he attempts cute moves at times when he should just be taking a shot or trying to hit an open teammate. He's not Jaromir Jagr but he certainly plays like he thinks he is. These chances he keeps flubbing will never come to fruition unless he plays within his skillset and after 4 years in the league (incl. this year) he still hasn't figured it out. He's become much better defensively, but he's gotten worse offensively because of his cutesy plays. That's the type of regression that points to lack of hockey sense -- which he really doesn't have a lot of. He's a flawed player and will never be that 2nd line center he was envisioned as when he was selected (cough Colin Wilson cough). I think Islander fans need to come to terms with Bailey as nothing more than a 3rd/4th line center for his career outlook, because he doesn't have a whole lot of upside beyond that IMO.
If you're thrown into the 1st grade when you should be in Pre-K, you're probably going to have a difficult time in elementary school.
The franchise rushed him, plain and simple. He is now in his 4th NHL season when it really should be his 2nd.
I don't think he is ruined or he'll never amount to being a 2nd line center. But his development cycle was definitely slowed down by him not getting the proper time at the lower levels. It was an incredibly shortsighted move on SnoWangs part. They could have a 50+ point 2nd line center right now instead of a 30 point 3rd line enigma. But Josh is still playing catchup & he likely will for at least another season or two.
Last edited by Isles Junkie: 01-26-2012 at 11:55 AM.
Bailey has shown some good things this year. He is a playmaking center getting third line minutes with Rolston and Martin on his wings. Not exactly top end finishers. Comeau put up 24 goals on his line last year. I'm curious if Comeau's production would have improved once we started to notice Bailey pick up his game.
bailey's regressed statistically, but I think he's a far better player this year than he was last year and the year prior.
In terms of the pick itself, he was a top ten pick, they don't all become first line players. Between picks 5-30, Bailey is one of the few successful , regular NHL players. At worst, he's an effective bottom six player who can chip in offensively and play a solid all-around game. I think he shows flashes of great skill/vision that he hasn't put together yet - but there are a lot of players on the list that won't likely ever be NHL players.
The glass is not always half-empty in Islanders country. We should be happy that he's on the roster and contributing.
I still LOVE the move-down and love the pick and player a great deal.
We all think the development wasn't the best, for sure, but this is mostly on Bailey, he needs to work harder and TAKE the job he was given....still time to do that.
For all the Tyler Myers, Eberle, Karlsson picks, there's far more Boedkers, Beach, Boychuck, Teubert, Filatov types.
1 5 Toronto Luke Schenn D Kelowna Rockets [WHL] 279 13 53 66 192
1 6 Columbus Nikita Filatov L CSKA Jr. (Russia) 53 6 8 14 20
1 7 Nashville Colin Wilson C Boston University [H-East] 164 34 42 76 43
1 8 Phoenix Mikkel Boedker L Kitchener Rangers [OHL] 176 23 38 61 32
1 9 NY Islanders Joshua Bailey C Windsor Spitfires [OHL] 259 39 62 101 85
1 10 Vancouver Cody Hodgson C Brampton Battalion [OHL] 57 14 17 31 4
1 11 Chicago Kyle Beach L Everett Silvertips [WHL]
1 12 Buffalo Tyler Myers D Kelowna Rockets [WHL] 191 25 70 95 86
1 13 Los Angeles Colten Teubert D Regina Pats [WHL] 20 0 1 1 18
1 14 Carolina Zach Boychuk C Lethbridge Hurricanes [WHL] 69 7 11 18 6
1 15 Ottawa Erik Karlsson D Frolunda Jrs (Sweden) 186 25 93 118 100
1 16 Boston Joe Colborne C Camrose Kodiaks [AJHL] 10 1 4 5 2
1 17 Anaheim Jake Gardiner D Minnetonka H.S. (Minn.) 42 1 13 14 16
1 18 Nashville Chet Pickard G Tri-City Americans [WHL]
1 19 Philadelphia Luca Sbisa D Lethbridge Hurricanes [WHL] 163 4 28 32 117
1 20 NY Rangers Michael Del Zotto D Oshawa Generals [OHL] 174 16 56 72 76
1 21 Washington Anton Gustafsson C Frolunda Jrs (Sweden)
1 22 Edmonton Jordan Eberle C Regina Pats [WHL] 114 36 52 88 28
1 23 Minnesota Tyler Cuma D Ottawa 67's [OHL]
1 24 New Jersey Mattias Tedenby R HV71 Jonkoping [SEL] 101 9 19 28 30
1 25 Calgary Greg Nemisz C Windsor Spitfires [OHL] 8 0 1 1 0
1 26 Buffalo Tyler Ennis C Medicine Hat Tigers [WHL] 107 26 37 63 38
1 27 Washington John Carlson D Indiana Ice [USHL] 152 13 53 66 70
1 28 Phoenix Viktor Tikhonov L Cherepovets Severstal [Russia] 61 8 8 16 20
1 29 Atlanta Daultan Leveille C St. Catharines Falcons [GHJHL]
1 30 Detroit Thomas McCollum G Guelph Storm [OHL] 1 0 0 0 0
Bailey has been really ****ing good the last few weeks, he hasn't put up many points during this stretch, but his overall game has been really ****ing good over the last few weeks.
bailey's regressed statistically, but I think he's a far better player this year than he was last year and the year prior.
In terms of the pick itself, he was a top ten pick, they don't all become first line players. Between picks 5-30, Bailey is one of the few successful , regular NHL players. At worst, he's an effective bottom six player who can chip in offensively and play a solid all-around game. I think he shows flashes of great skill/vision that he hasn't put together yet - but there are a lot of players on the list that won't likely ever be NHL players.
The glass is not always half-empty in Islanders country. We should be happy that he's on the roster and contributing.
I still LOVE the move-down and love the pick and player a great deal.
We all think the development wasn't the best, for sure, but this is mostly on Bailey, he needs to work harder and TAKE the job he was given....still time to do that.
For all the Tyler Myers, Eberle, Karlsson picks, there's far more Boedkers, Beach, Boychuck, Teubert, Filatov types.
1 5 Toronto Luke Schenn D Kelowna Rockets [WHL] 279 13 53 66 192
1 6 Columbus Nikita Filatov L CSKA Jr. (Russia) 53 6 8 14 20
1 7 Nashville Colin Wilson C Boston University [H-East] 164 34 42 76 43
1 8 Phoenix Mikkel Boedker L Kitchener Rangers [OHL] 176 23 38 61 32
1 9 NY Islanders Joshua Bailey C Windsor Spitfires [OHL] 259 39 62 101 85
1 10 Vancouver Cody Hodgson C Brampton Battalion [OHL] 57 14 17 31 4
1 11 Chicago Kyle Beach L Everett Silvertips [WHL]
1 12 Buffalo Tyler Myers D Kelowna Rockets [WHL] 191 25 70 95 86
1 13 Los Angeles Colten Teubert D Regina Pats [WHL] 20 0 1 1 18
1 14 Carolina Zach Boychuk C Lethbridge Hurricanes [WHL] 69 7 11 18 6
1 15 Ottawa Erik Karlsson D Frolunda Jrs (Sweden) 186 25 93 118 100
1 16 Boston Joe Colborne C Camrose Kodiaks [AJHL] 10 1 4 5 2
1 17 Anaheim Jake Gardiner D Minnetonka H.S. (Minn.) 42 1 13 14 16
1 18 Nashville Chet Pickard G Tri-City Americans [WHL]
1 19 Philadelphia Luca Sbisa D Lethbridge Hurricanes [WHL] 163 4 28 32 117
1 20 NY Rangers Michael Del Zotto D Oshawa Generals [OHL] 174 16 56 72 76
1 21 Washington Anton Gustafsson C Frolunda Jrs (Sweden)
1 22 Edmonton Jordan Eberle C Regina Pats [WHL] 114 36 52 88 28
1 23 Minnesota Tyler Cuma D Ottawa 67's [OHL]
1 24 New Jersey Mattias Tedenby R HV71 Jonkoping [SEL] 101 9 19 28 30
1 25 Calgary Greg Nemisz C Windsor Spitfires [OHL] 8 0 1 1 0
1 26 Buffalo Tyler Ennis C Medicine Hat Tigers [WHL] 107 26 37 63 38
1 27 Washington John Carlson D Indiana Ice [USHL] 152 13 53 66 70
1 28 Phoenix Viktor Tikhonov L Cherepovets Severstal [Russia] 61 8 8 16 20
1 29 Atlanta Daultan Leveille C St. Catharines Falcons [GHJHL]
1 30 Detroit Thomas McCollum G Guelph Storm [OHL] 1 0 0 0 0
I agree with everything you said, however only because we got Hamonic from the trade down and he's a top 10 pick from that draft talent wise. If the trade down doesn't happen, we most likely only have Bailey from the first two rounds. Thats not good for an organization that only gets its players from the draft.
Heres the deal with this guy...watching him, it seems like he loves the cute stuff too much. Always thinking he can make the subtle play/pass, but his skill level doesn't allow. Kinda like he thinks the game at JT's level but plays it much lower.
I strongly disagree that JB doesn't have the sill to make the cute/subtle pass. I think he absolutely does. I just don't think that his teamates expect it. Perhaps that's a problem with Josh not communicating on the ice/talking off the ice. Perhaps that has something to do with his linemates who don't have the best vision/hockey IQ.
It's one of the reasons why I would really like to see him on JTs wing every now and then. Granted, he's made some bonehead plays, but I think Josh has the 2nd best vision on the team and i think that JT is really the only one who'd be able to mesh well with him. And as we have seen, John can play with anyone.
Not to go too far OT, but Strome is another one who is said to have plus vision & hockey sense. So he would be an excellent option to pair with Josh within the next few years. Either one can play center as far as I'm concerned.
Unless it's a move you can't refuse, I really want Josh to remain with this team. They stalled his progress, but I believe he'll get there eventually.
Bailey is fine. His linemates have been mostly awful. Rolston needs to be out as soon as possible and replaced with Ullstrom or Grabner. Maybe even give Rahk a shot. ANYTHING but Rolston.
Seriously, I like this core. I can deal with Grabner's deficiencies as long as he's creating chances. We need to get rid of all the junk first.
Bailey has been really ****ing good the last few weeks, he hasn't put up many points during this stretch, but his overall game has been really ****ing good over the last few weeks.
bailey's regressed statistically, but I think he's a far better player this year than he was last year and the year prior.
I agree with everything you said, especially this part.
Right now, I see Bailey as a legit 3rd line NHL center, whereas last year he was an AHL player. Whether or not his offense develops, he is better than last year or any prior year.
From the (albeit limited -- I've been busy a lot this winter and haven't caught many non-Penguins games) games I've watched, Bailey actually looks like someone on the verge of breaking out to me. He's still prone to some bad attempts at passes that lead to or are close to leading to turnovers, but he's also showed enough glimpses of his offensive skill, IMO, to suggest he can be a producer at the NHL level.
The biggest issue I see with him is something that's completely out of his control. And that is, I don't think the organization has put him in a situation to properly utilize his offensive skillset. He's a talented playmaker, so one doesn't need to be an NHL coach to thus conclude that he should be playing with guys who can put the puck in the net to take advantage of his passing. But yet the majority of the season (apart from the odd shift or two), he seems to be playing in a bottom six role, with bottom six players who will be lucky to score 10 goals in a season. I'm not sure any playmaker can produce 50+ points if he's got 10 goal wingers riding shotgun on his flanks.
One combination that I'm curious why it hasn't been tried is pairing up Bailey and Grabner, and having Martin on their other wing. You've got a struggling goal scorer, a struggling playmaker, and the coaching staff hasn't even tried to see if putting them together can snap both of their slumps? Martin would be the physical guy on the line who does the dirty work in the corners, and creates space for the other two to do their thing.
I think if the Isles trade Bailey, they'll come to regret it. While he's got talent, his stock is likely low right now because of the aforementioned lack of production. So whatever assets they get in return for Bailey likely wouldn't be worth anywhere near what Bailey will be worth when he finally breaks out.
I am a fan of Bailey. I never expected the kid to be some sniper but he plays both sides of the game well. He has been getting better each year. Remember he is still young as well
I want him moved up to the 2nd line and I think we will see even more of what Bailey has to offer.
This is a kid, NYI threw to the wolves....he is now progressing. Nino will probably be in the same spot as Bailey was in regards to developing.
On the O.P.s initial comments, if we get a top 5 pick, just my opinion but I can think of a lot of players that I will point to well before Bailey, just take a look at the over 30 crowd.
One combination that I'm curious why it hasn't been tried is pairing up Bailey and Grabner, and having Martin on their other wing. You've got a struggling goal scorer, a struggling playmaker, and the coaching staff hasn't even tried to see if putting them together can snap both of their slumps? Martin would be the physical guy on the line who does the dirty work in the corners, and creates space for the other two to do their thing.
They did try that combination, and it wasn't that bad. But they moved Grabner to the 2nd line to bump Rolston down to the 3rd. I really think they should bring Nino to the 3rd line and I think Bailey would benefit from him.
I also think Bailey started breaking out once Comeau left and Ullstrom came along. Bailey and Ullstrom really seemed to have real good chemistry together and I was wondering maybe if they could be a pairing long term. But then Ullstrom went down with the concussion and he's in Bridgeport now.
Bailey has been real good. While it doesn't show it in the stats, you can just tell that the kid seems to know what he's doing. Sure his progression was slowed down because of the idiots in the front office, but he's starting to put it together. I really think this guy can succeed in this NHL.
Bailey has been really ****ing good the last few weeks, he hasn't put up many points during this stretch, but his overall game has been really ****ing good over the last few weeks.
I'd say he was really good for stretch of a few weeks, but then the last 4 or so games he's tailed off in his overall game. I realize he scored a couple shorties the last couple games & he has proved to be a pretty solid PK guy. But IMO his 5 on 5 isn't as good as it was a couple weeks ago. Honestly I think the regression came once they put Rolston back on his line. That guy just kills any line he's on.
I still have plenty of patience for Bailey, seeing and get the feeling he just needs the right linemate to bust out after seeing a lot of small glimpses of what he can do... would love to see them try anyone instead of Rolston. Feels like Bailey and Martin are playing with a two man line.
