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3.9% chance of making the playoffs

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Old
01-27-2012, 03:28 PM
  #26
Le depisteur
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Quite ironic to see when the chances to make series were at the highest peak, or close to 60%, was the day when Jacques Martin was fired ...

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...ePlayoffs.html

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01-27-2012, 03:32 PM
  #27
uiCk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
No, it's not an opinion. Obviously I used an extreme case of one game to highlight the fact that it means very little, it doesn't change the point. These give you a little insight to what's going on in the bigger picture, nothing more.
extreme cases are usually marginalized in statistics, that's a real fact.

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01-27-2012, 03:43 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by uiCk View Post
extreme cases are usually marginalized in statistics, that's a real fact.
Yes they are. Never really suggested otherwise. I think you took my comment of somewhat meaningless a little too literally, this offers a piece of the pie, but it's much more complicated than 56>53 ect.

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01-27-2012, 03:44 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
I find goal differential to be rather meaningless tbh. It's much like the pythagorean record in baseball. Blowing out a team one game 7-2 has no predictive value whatsoever as to how that team will fair in subsequent games where injuries and rosters are ever changing.
It has been shown to be more predictive than current win-loss record. There's rather a massive gap between "imperfect especially on short samples" and "meaningless", and it's utterly silly to completely dismiss a metric for being imperfect in its prediction... and prefer to one that's even less predictive.

Furthermore: if you believe that injuries and roster changes would completely invalidate goal differential, then it must follow that every metric that is based on the past, including a team's current record, would be similarly "meaningless", and therefore you have absolutely no way of predicting future team performance based on any existing data. The more reasonable approach is to either factor in roster changes and injuries, or accept that they'll become margins of error.

Now, like all goal metrics, goal differential is heavily-affected by luck/variance and it's less effective than shot metrics at predicting the future so, yes, it can be misleading, especially in small samples, and shot-based metrics such as Corsi and Fenwick and their derivatives are much more informative. But those also point to the Habs being better than their record.

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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
Every year the Jays had an outstanding Pythagorean record and finished anywhere from 3-4 in the division under JP Ricciardi. Interesting to discuss, but not very meaningful in the end.
I'm no expert on baseball, but I bet this had more to do with baseball's whacked seeding and the Jays being in the same division as the Yankees and the Red Sox. Pythagorean expectation predicts won-loss record, not division finish; the Jays play in a division they can go 86-76 and end up fourth, in a league where that record would've won one of the divisions.

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01-27-2012, 04:31 PM
  #30
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25,3 + 0,2 = 25,5

It's a sign.

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Old
01-27-2012, 05:00 PM
  #31
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chances are HABS will not make the playoffs- i dont need percentages to tell me taht- just have to look at the standings- and i hope they do not get close to the post season and hopefully keep falling

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01-27-2012, 05:02 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by larek View Post
chances are HABS will not make the playoffs- i dont need percentages to tell me taht- just have to look at the standings- and i hope they do not get close to the post season and hopefully keep falling
So in short, you don't believe the team and want them to lose. What a fan.

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01-27-2012, 05:07 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by 76ftw View Post
So in short, you don't believe the team and want them to lose. What a fan.
Winning is losing
Losing is winning

Habs fan motto 2011-2012

I want the habs in the post season.

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01-27-2012, 05:09 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
Winning is losing
Losing is winning

Habs fan motto 2011-2012

I want the habs in the post season.
Extremist Habs fans you find on Hf maybe. Everyone else I've met IRL wants to win because well, winning is more fun, and losing attitudes suck.

in before someone calls me unenlightened or some BS.

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01-27-2012, 05:11 PM
  #35
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So your telling me there's a chance?

Was gonna post this haha

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01-27-2012, 05:14 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by 76ftw View Post
Extremist Habs fans you find on Hf maybe. Everyone else I've met IRL wants to win because well, winning is more fun, and losing attitudes suck.
in before someone calls me unenlightened or some BS.
And I'd be willing to bet the players on team feel the same way.

I've played on crappy teams before, no one ever wants to lose even when you know you suck. Also I really don't think the habs will end up with a lottery pick. The team isn't bad enough to "tank" or finish in the pits. They'll end up finishing 10th probably mostly because of wasted opportunities earlier on in the season(blown leads and SO losses).

The habs can trim the fat all they want(Campoli, Gill, Moen, Ak) and the team still wouldn't be bad enough to tank considering the former two have very little impact on the team already. To have the habs finish at the bottom of the barrel more significant pieces need to be moved which would be flat out stupid.

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01-27-2012, 05:54 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by shortcat1 View Post
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

Funny but not that far off, really.

It looks like, and with no surprise, that the Bruins are given the highest percentage to make the playoffs at over 38%.

The Rangers, Red Wings and Canucks follow but are way back. In fact, their possibility rate is closer to Montreal's than Boston's.
38% for the Bruins is to win the cup and not just make playoffs.

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01-27-2012, 06:16 PM
  #38
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I believe that it's meant to be and it feels a little like ninety three!!!!

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01-27-2012, 06:20 PM
  #39
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Same as usual.. What's new?

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01-27-2012, 06:22 PM
  #40
larek
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Originally Posted by 76ftw View Post
So in short, you don't believe the team and want them to lose. What a fan.
you dont have a clue --what a fan-- hogwash-it takes real fans to realize whats best for the long run !whats been happenlng the last many years doesnt work-time for another way

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Old
01-27-2012, 06:27 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
And I'd be willing to bet the players on team feel the same way.

I've played on crappy teams before, no one ever wants to lose even when you know you suck. Also I really don't think the habs will end up with a lottery pick. The team isn't bad enough to "tank" or finish in the pits. They'll end up finishing 10th probably mostly because of wasted opportunities earlier on in the season(blown leads and SO losses).

The habs can trim the fat all they want(Campoli, Gill, Moen, Ak) and the team still wouldn't be bad enough to tank considering the former two have very little impact on the team already. To have the habs finish at the bottom of the barrel more significant pieces need to be moved which would be flat out stupid.
bottom 5 very realistic

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01-27-2012, 06:31 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
And I'd be willing to bet the players on team feel the same way.

I've played on crappy teams before, no one ever wants to lose even when you know you suck. Also I really don't think the habs will end up with a lottery pick. The team isn't bad enough to "tank" or finish in the pits. They'll end up finishing 10th probably mostly because of wasted opportunities earlier on in the season(blown leads and SO losses).

The habs can trim the fat all they want(Campoli, Gill, Moen, Ak) and the team still wouldn't be bad enough to tank considering the former two have very little impact on the team already. To have the habs finish at the bottom of the barrel more significant pieces need to be moved which would be flat out stupid.
Of course in your crappy league no one wants to lose. No one likes losing. ESPECIALLY if you play just for fun. NHL players don't like losing either (even on rebuilding teams). What has that got to do with the current situation ?

Not only that, but the **** league you play in likely doesn't have a performance based draft. So again, how does this relate ?

Why even bring this up ?

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01-27-2012, 06:31 PM
  #43
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bottom 5 very realistic
I disagree. The habs have been massively underachieving. They are not bad enough to be a bottom 5 team and it wouldn't surprise me to see them finish strong and end up on the outside of the bottom 10 of the league.

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01-27-2012, 06:33 PM
  #44
Andy
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Originally Posted by E = CH² View Post
Of course in your crappy league no one wants to lose. No one likes losing. ESPECIALLY if you play just for fun. NHL players don't like losing either (even on rebuilding teams). What has that got to do with the current situation ?

Not only that, but the **** league you play in likely doesn't have a performance based draft. So again, how does this relate ?

Why even bring this up ?
Because everyone here says "tank tank tank" all day long and unless the players would willingly like to lose games I just don't see the habs finishing in the bottom 5 of the league even if they move spare parts. It's going to take more than just trading Gill and Campoli to get the habs in the bottom 5. So long as the players on the team want to win, I wouldn't be surprised to see the habs finish strong. They were trending upwards just before Martin got fired and then were a mess with the coaching change(which is not a shocker when the coach tries to implement a new system). The habs record imo isn't at all telling of how "bad" they are.

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01-27-2012, 06:44 PM
  #45
larek
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
I disagree. The habs have been massively underachieving. They are not bad enough to be a bottom 5 team and it wouldn't surprise me to see them finish strong and end up on the outside of the bottom 10 of the league.
massivly-- this is a average franchise who teetter on making or not making the playoffs-
of course things happen that makes seasons what they are but by no means has this team been a serious contender for many many years
the year habs won there division with koivju and x kovalev -i thought the team had a real chance but they crumbled-

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01-27-2012, 06:46 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
I disagree. The habs have been massively underachieving. They are not bad enough to be a bottom 5 team and it wouldn't surprise me to see them finish strong and end up on the outside of the bottom 10 of the league.
if management plays it right its very attainable

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01-27-2012, 06:48 PM
  #47
Andy
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Originally Posted by larek View Post
massivly-- this is a average franchise who teetter on making or not making the playoffs-
of course things happen that makes seasons what they are but by no means has this team been a serious contender for many many years
the year habs won there division with koivju and x kovalev -i thought the team had a real chance but they crumbled-
I never said they were a contender. I said they aren't bad enough to finish at the bottom and I truly believe the tank crowd will be disappointed when we end up picking like 12th.

Quote:
if management plays it right its very attainable
It's going to take more than just moving Moen, Campoli and Gill to make it happen and I doubt that the org is willing to trade Pacioretty, Price, Subban, Gorges, Eller, Desharnais, Cole and Plekanec.

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01-27-2012, 06:59 PM
  #48
E = CH²
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
Because everyone here says "tank tank tank" all day long and unless the players would willingly like to lose games I just don't see the habs finishing in the bottom 5 of the league even if they move spare parts. It's going to take more than just trading Gill and Campoli to get the habs in the bottom 5. So long as the players on the team want to win, I wouldn't be surprised to see the habs finish strong. They were trending upwards just before Martin got fired and then were a mess with the coaching change(which is not a shocker when the coach tries to implement a new system). The habs record imo isn't at all telling of how "bad" they are.
They didn't like losing back then. I am betting things haven't changed. Yet.. they still lost.

Remove a couple of key components via trade for prospects/picks and it won't get better. First because you're making the team weaker with the trades and also because you're sending the message to the players they don't have to put their health at risk to win any more. They don't have to go to bed early and be well rested for the game because the game doesn't matter.

Some guys are pros through and through and will compete no matter what but there are always individuals who will let up. It's like that on every team.

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01-27-2012, 07:07 PM
  #49
Andy
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Originally Posted by E = CH² View Post
They didn't like losing back then. I am betting things haven't changed. Yet.. they still lost.

Remove a couple of key components via trade for prospects/picks and it won't get better. First because you're making the team weaker with the trades and also because you're sending the message to the players they don't have to put their health at risk to win any more. They don't have to go to bed early and be well rested for the game because the game doesn't matter.

Some guys are pros through and through and will compete no matter what but there are always individuals who will let up. It's like that on every team.
I don't entirely believe that will happen considering we see multiple teams every year who 8-12 points out at this time and yet battle tooth and nail until about the last couple of weeks.

We'll see what happens, but I would be surprised if the team ends up in the bottom 5. There are many many worse teams than the Canadiens. They started off bad under Cunney and seem to have found their feet these last couple of weeks despite blowing a couple of leads and losing in the SO(ottawa and pittsburgh). Like I said, I don't think the current team is bad enough to finish bottom 5 and trading Gill or Campoli or Moen won't ensure that either as I think the former two have already contributed very little and that the latter's contributions can be reasonably replaced until the end of the year.

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Old
01-27-2012, 07:08 PM
  #50
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Well, it looks like we have to be the odds and win the cup then. Get your butts down to vegas.

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