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Old
02-14-2012, 01:31 PM
  #176
Sturminator
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
how often did the goalie on the team with the second lowest GA total make the second all-star team? If there is as strong a correlation between 2nd and 2nd, as there is with 1st and 1st, then using all-star teams to judge goalies from back then starts to look like it's only marginally better than using Vezinas (and Vezinas are jennings trophies so that's crap)
Ask and ye shall receive, my friend. Here is the record during Brimsek's career.

1938-39:
Vezina: Brimsek
1st team all-star: Brimsek
2nd GAA: [undrafted]
2nd team all-star: [undrafted] (6th GAA)

1939-40:
Vezina: [undrafted]
1st team all-star: [undrafted]* same as above
2nd GAA: [undrafted]
2nd team all-star: Brimsek (3rd GAA)

1940-41:
Vezina: Broda
1st team all-star: Broda
2nd GAA: [undrafted]/Brimsek (tie)
2nd team all-star: Brimsek

1941-42:
Vezina: Brimsek
1st team all-star: Brimsek
2nd GAA: Broda
2nd team all-star: Broda

1942-43:
Vezina: [undrafted]
1st team all-star: [undrafted]* same as above
2nd GAA: Broda
2nd team all-star: Brimsek (3rd GAA)

...skip over the war years because it is just Durnan and undrafteds...

1945-46:
Vezina: Durnan
1st team all-star: Durnan
2nd GAA: [undrafted]
2nd team all-star: Brimsek (4th GAA)

1946-47:
Vezina: Durnan
1st team all-star: Durnan
2nd GAA: Broda
2nd team all-star: Brimsek (3rd GAA)

1947-48:
Vezina: Broda
1st team all-star: Broda
2nd GAA: [undrafted]
2nd team all-star: Brimsek (4th GAA)

1948-49:
Vezina: Durnan
1st team all-star: Durnan
2nd GAA: [undrafted]
2nd team all-star: [undrafted] (5th GAA)

Almost no correlation between 2nd GAA and 2nd team all-star selection. Brimsek beat out the goalie who was 2nd in GAA all six times he was named a 2nd team all-star, though once they were tied. He twice beat out Broda when Turk had the better GAA. The more you dig into the record, the clearer it becomes that his placement on the all-star teams didn't do Brimsek any kind of justice.


Last edited by Sturminator: 02-14-2012 at 01:44 PM.
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02-14-2012, 02:34 PM
  #177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
Brimsek has 6 2nd team all-stars. 3 of those, Boston was 2nd in GAA. The others, Boston was 3rd in GAA. It appears that GAA had a significant impact on All-Star voting.
Uhm...you are clearly looking at the wrong numbers.

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02-14-2012, 02:39 PM
  #178
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Brimsek also kills Broda in Hart trophy voting. Brimsek finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th in Hart voting to Broda's single 4th place appearance. Brimsek was a "Hart finalist" by modern standards (though I don't know how the Hart voting worked back then) more times than he was a 1st team all-star. Yet another piece of evidence that doesn't seem to line up with his six 2nd team placements.

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02-14-2012, 02:40 PM
  #179
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Uhm...you are clearly looking at the wrong numbers.
I believe it's accurate if you go by team numbers, which is actually what I was asking. (because the Vezina doesn't go to top GAA, it goes to top goalie of team with lowest GAA, which isn't 100% of the time the same thing)

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02-14-2012, 02:48 PM
  #180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
I believe it's accurate if you go by team numbers, which is actually what I was asking. (because the Vezina doesn't go to top GAA, it goes to top goalie of team with lowest GAA, which isn't 100% of the time the same thing)
No, looking at the team numbers change it in only two seasons for Brimsek. The Bruins were 2nd in goals allowed in 45-46 and 39-40. The tied season remains a tie when looking at the team numbers. So Brimsek beat the guy whose team gave up the second most goals three times, and beat the individual who was second in GAA every time. Two of the three times were against Broda, by the way.

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02-14-2012, 02:53 PM
  #181
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The number Dreak is not looking at is the level of correlation. The correlation between 1st and Vezina is 100%, which over ten seasons is extremely unlikely given what we know about how hockey works and the newspaper clippings of the day. The level of correlation between 2nd AST and 2nd in GA, when we consider that there are only six teams in the league, is much lower. The undrafteds in that timespan who made 2nd AST were both on terrible defensive teams. There is effectively no correlation between 2nd GA and 2nd AST over this time period (50% correlation is actually 0% for you statheads).

With Brimsek and the Krauts, would you really expect the Bruins to be in the bottom half of the league defensively?

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02-14-2012, 03:06 PM
  #182
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
With Brimsek and the Krauts, would you really expect the Bruins to be in the bottom half of the league defensively?
No, but I also don't know why you're asking this.

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02-14-2012, 03:09 PM
  #183
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
No, but I also don't know why you're asking this.
The point is that if a team like that isn't going to finish 1st or 2nd in GA, they are more likely to finish 3rd than at the bottom of the table. It's a level of correlation thing. I thought you were a stathead?

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02-14-2012, 03:13 PM
  #184
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These are the years where team GA don't match up with 1st and 2nd ASTs for goalies between 56-68. '55 is also flipped with the winner of the Vezina (by one goal difference) getting the 2nd AST nod behind an undrafted who just lost out on the Vezina, I just didn't wanna write all the numbers up for such a small difference.

'57
Montreal Canadiens 155GA
Detroit Red Wings 157GA

Vezina (Masterson) and 2nd AST to Plante, 1st AST to Hall

'58
Habs 158 GA
NY Rangers 188 GA
Boston Bruins 194 GA
Chicago Blackhawks 202 GA

Vezina and 2nd AST to Plante, 1st AST to Sawchuk (who was a Blackhawk this season)

'59
Habs 158 GA
Maple Leafs 201 GA
Blackhawks 208 GA
Bruins 215 GA
Rangers 217 GA
Red Wings 218 GA

Plante wins Vezina and 1st AST, Sawchuk wins 2nd AST with Detroit giving up the most goals.

'60
Habs 178 GA
Blackhawks 180 GA

Plante wins Vezina and 2nd AST, Hall wins 1st AST

'62
Habs 166 GA
Maple Leafs 180 GA
Blackhawks 186 GA

Plante wins Vezina and 1st AST, Hall wins 2nd AST

'63
Blackhawks 178 GA
Maple Leafs 180 GA
Habs 183 GA
Red Wings 194 GA

Hall wins Vezina and 1st AST, Sawchuk wins 2nd AST with Wings' 4th GA rank.

'64
Habs 167 GA
Blackhawks 169 GA

Undrafted wins Vezina and 2nd AST, Hall wins 1st AST with CHI

'65
Maple Leafs 173 GA
Red Wings 175 GA
Blackhawks 176 GA
Habs 185 GA

Bower wins Vezina but doesn't make either post-season AST. Det takes 1st AST and Montreal takes 2nd.

'66
Habs 173 GA
Blackhawks 187 GA
Maple Leafs 187 GA

Worsley wins Vezina and 2nd AST, Hall wins 1st AST

'67
Blackhawks 170 GA
Habs 188 GA
Rangers 189 GA

Hall wins Vezina and 2nd AST, NYR takes 1st AST

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02-14-2012, 03:18 PM
  #185
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It appears that the correlation between Vezina and 1st AST started to break down around 1950, just as Brimsek was hanging 'em up. Tough luck for Frankie.

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02-14-2012, 03:27 PM
  #186
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Yeah like I said I didn't go earlier than '55 for whatever reason yet but it definitely doesn't seem right for Durnan's record to look the way it does when a guy like Bower would have been a shoe-in for a handful more of 1st AST if the Vezina=1st spot trend carried.

It's all conjecture to assume Durnan didn't truly "earn" his, but are we really supposed to believe that every year the best goalie happened to be on the team with the lowest goals against, until Glenn Hall came around?

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02-14-2012, 03:30 PM
  #187
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
It appears that the correlation between Vezina and 1st AST started to break down around 1950, just as Brimsek was hanging 'em up. Tough luck for Frankie.
Here it is before Brimsek

yearvezina1st Team2nd Team
1931WortersGardinerThompson
1932GardinerGardinerWorters
1933ThompsonZZZGardiner
1934GardinerGardinerWorters
1935XXXXXXThompson
1936ThompsonThompsonWWW
1937YYYYYYWWW
1938ThompsonThompsonDDD

1931 and 1933 buck the trend (or more accurately, the trend hadn't been established yet)

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02-14-2012, 03:34 PM
  #188
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Sounds like the "trend" is fitting our narratives better than the evidence

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02-14-2012, 03:35 PM
  #189
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
The point is that if a team like that isn't going to finish 1st or 2nd in GA, they are more likely to finish 3rd than at the bottom of the table. It's a level of correlation thing. I thought you were a stathead?
I think our wires are crossed somehow. my expectation was that they would be 2nd every year, or maybe 3rd. I wasn't expecting them to be at or near the bottom.

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02-14-2012, 03:44 PM
  #190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
I think our wires are crossed somehow. my expectation was that they would be 2nd every year, or maybe 3rd. I wasn't expecting them to be at or near the bottom.
What I mean is that Dreak claimed that because Brimsek's team finished 3rd in GA in the years when they weren't 2nd, that there is a strong correlation between 2nd AST and 2nd GA, which is nonsense. 3rd would be the expected value for that Bruins team if not 1st or 2nd (we're talking about a narrower range of expected value than pure chance between 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th), therefore the lack of correlation is higher than the numbers would suggest based on Dreak's superficial look at them.

Are we clear now?

Correlation between 1st AST and Vezina = impossibly high

Correlation between 2nd AST and 2nd GA = marginal, at best

There is a mathematical correlation between GA and the 2nd AST...it is not zero...but you would expect there to be one because a good goalie will lower your team's GA.

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02-14-2012, 03:44 PM
  #191
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
It appears that the correlation between Vezina and 1st AST started to break down around 1950, just as Brimsek was hanging 'em up. Tough luck for Frankie.
Are you sure about that. Don't just look at Vezina vs 1st AST. Look at the actual numbers. Sawchuk was 1st AST in '51, Detroit had 1 more goal against, but the team that beat them had an almost 50/50 split in goal. And then in 54-55 Sawchuk was 2nd team, and Detroit had the lowest goals against, by one goal, but Glenn Hall played more games than the other teams back-up and had a lower GAA than Sawchuk, so Sawchuk was not the GAA king that year.

It's not until 57-58 that was see a real deviation, and that was caused by Glenn Hall making Chicago relevant again.

So maybe it's not poor Frankie, maybe he just wasn't good enough. It's not until Hall that voters saw a goalie go above and beyond team defence.

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02-14-2012, 03:48 PM
  #192
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
So maybe it's not poor Frankie, maybe he just wasn't good enough. It's not until Hall that voters saw a goalie go above and beyond team defence.
Ehhh...your argument doesn't actually suggest this conclusion, especially in light of crystal clear press clippings that Brimsek was the best goalie in the world (or of all-time) in one of his 2nd AST seasons. Did you not read what I posted earlier?

The level of correlation between Vezina and 1st AST during Brimsek's career was ludicrous and a lot of secondary evidence suggests that he was the dominant goalie of his generation. When the correlation broke down is irrelevant to Brimsek's career.

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02-14-2012, 03:55 PM
  #193
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Because of the adversarial nature of this, I'd want to do an equal check on Durnan and Broda, but it will have to wait until I have the time and patience.

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02-14-2012, 04:54 PM
  #194
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Originally Posted by God Made Me View Post
Or the Blackhawks.
Or the Canucks, who are 1 point out of 1st in the NHL due to their two goalies, and only their two goalies for the past 2 months!!!!

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02-14-2012, 05:22 PM
  #195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
Right now I have:

Salming-Boivin
Goodfellow-______

What type of guy should I pair with Goodfellow, or should I move Boivin to play with Goodfellow, and pick someone to play with Salming? Any input or thoughts are appreciated.
Bump, I think this got lost in the discussion.

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02-14-2012, 05:32 PM
  #196
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
These are the years where team GA don't match up with 1st and 2nd ASTs for goalies between 56-68. '55 is also flipped with the winner of the Vezina (by one goal difference) getting the 2nd AST nod behind an undrafted who just lost out on the Vezina, I just didn't wanna write all the numbers up for such a small difference.

'57
Montreal Canadiens 155GA
Detroit Red Wings 157GA

Vezina (Masterson) and 2nd AST to Plante, 1st AST to Hall

'58
Habs 158 GA
NY Rangers 188 GA
Boston Bruins 194 GA
Chicago Blackhawks 202 GA

Vezina and 2nd AST to Plante, 1st AST to Sawchuk (who was a Blackhawk this season)
you wrote sawchuk for hall

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
Yeah like I said I didn't go earlier than '55 for whatever reason yet but it definitely doesn't seem right for Durnan's record to look the way it does when a guy like Bower would have been a shoe-in for a handful more of 1st AST if the Vezina=1st spot trend carried.

It's all conjecture to assume Durnan didn't truly "earn" his, but are we really supposed to believe that every year the best goalie happened to be on the team with the lowest goals against, until Glenn Hall came around?
games played was important.

Quote:
From 1935 to 1970, there is a very simple algorithm to determine the First Team All-Star goalie. Look at all the goalies who played in at least 75% of their team's games, rank them by goals against average, and take the guy at the top of the list. That's the First Team All-Star. That solution worked in 30 out of 36 seasons, all of them except for 1957, 1958, 1960, 1964, 1968 and 1969. Here are the goalies who were named First Team All-Star ahead of the high-minutes GAA leader in those seasons:

1957: Glenn Hall
1958: Glenn Hall
1960: Glenn Hall
1964: Glenn Hall
1968: Gump Worsley**
1969: Glenn Hall

**-Led the league in GAA by a wide margin but did not play in 75% of his team's games during a season where all of the top 4 guys in GAA were in platoon situations.

......

The voters were no less predictable in the 1970s, but what had changed was that it became common to platoon goalies. As a result, very few goalies played in 75% or more of the team's games. The voters still, whether consciously or subconscously, voted in the GAA leaders. In every season from 1971 to 1979 the same goalie won the Vezina (which under the old definition went to the starting goalie on the team that allowed the fewest goals) and was named the First Team All-Star.
http://brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com/...ying-eyes.html

bower did not play enough games. bower played 50+ games only 5 times.

probably bower won 1st AS in '61 b/c only hall played significantly more games (70 vs 58), and bower had the most wins. hall was 2nd AS.


it may have been important that glenn hall played every game from '56-'62.


in '64, bower and another goalie had better GAA than hall, but hall played 65 games, whereas bower played 51 and the other played 62.

bower led the NHL with .933, hall was 2nd at .929, other goalie was 3rd at .920.




Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
Bump, I think this got lost in the discussion.
i would put goodfellow with salming to create a very good 1st unit with howe. howe tended to control the play and salming and goodfellow are good both ways, so i think that pair would give your team better play in transition and offensively while not losing defensive play.


Last edited by nik jr: 02-14-2012 at 05:43 PM.
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02-14-2012, 05:44 PM
  #197
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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
Bump, I think this got lost in the discussion.
I had Goodfellow last year. He is good enough to be paired with a defenceman of any style, but he is a hard-nosed type of player that was solid defensively, so if you wanted to pick up yet another puck mover for your top 4 you should go that route. Just my two cents.

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02-14-2012, 06:58 PM
  #198
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nevermind I'll wait until lines are completed


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02-14-2012, 09:48 PM
  #199
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Originally Posted by nik jr View Post
Wow that makes Glenn Hall stand out. And really makes the other 1st team all stars a lot more murky.

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02-15-2012, 12:01 AM
  #200
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Wow that makes Glenn Hall stand out. And really makes the other 1st team all stars a lot more murky.
that, and some other things, make me doubt the value of all star voting, but it is really the only measure of how good they were.

vezina trophy was apparently viewed as the art ross of goalies. goalies very much wanted to win it and GA was viewed as the best measure of goaltending.

but i think awards came with money (i know all star selections did), and salaries then were much, much lower, so they may have wanted to win also for economic reasons.


hockeydb.com has sv% stats from

glenn hall's sv% --- (rankings)
'56: .922 --- (tied for 2nd with worsley)
'57: .927 --- (1st)
'58: .909 --- (tied for 5th)
'59: .897 --- (7th)
'60: .918 --- (2nd to bower, but only .001 behind)
'61: .920 --- (2nd to bower, but only .003 behind)
'62: .913 --- (tied for 3rd with worsley)
'63: .915 --- (1st)
'64: .929 --- (2nd to bower, but only .004 behind)
'65: .922 --- (2nd to bower, but only .002 behind)
'66: .917 --- (2nd to bower)
'67: .921 --- (3rd)

from seventieslord: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...d.php?t=698806
'68: .912 --- (9th)
'69: .928 --- (2nd to teammate plante)
'70: .904 --- (19th)
'71: .917 --- (6th)


only season that seems to conflict with sv% is '58. i read an old column a few years ago in which worsley was mentioned as a candidate for hart, but he only played 37 games (possibly injured, but i don't know).

hall was probably not an all star in '65 b/c he only played 41 games. 1st and 2nd all stars were 1st and 2nd in wins and games played.

hall was 2nd all star in '67, but a teammate played more games and had similar stats.



i will look at home vs road stats for TML to see if shots were overcounted in toronto. TML allowed a high number of shots for a team known for D.

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