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The Top 9 is settled - Leafs in the playoff hunt

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01-30-2012, 10:19 AM
  #1
MattVenca
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The Top 9 is settled - Leafs in the playoff hunt

playoffs.JPG

The last two columns are the most telling. In order for a team to achieve the benchmark minimum 95 points to make the playoffs, what is the points per game required? And what does that equate to in points over a full-season pace?

For even Winnipeg to achieve 95 points, they must play the rest of the season at the exact same pace that the Rangers have played this season. Winnipeg must play like a first place team for the rest of the entire season just to get 95 points.

Based on this, I think it is next to safe to say Winnipeg, Montreal, Tampa Bay, NYI, Buffalo and Carolina are all out of the hunt.

Out of Florida, Ottawa and Toronto...two will make the playoffs.

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01-30-2012, 10:21 AM
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iPunch
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Craig Anderson has cooled off dramatically the past couple weeks, so we may be in for some luck if they keep playing the way they have been infront of Monster.

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01-30-2012, 10:26 AM
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thehealthyscratch
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I'm predicting it will take 93 points to make the post season and Ottawa will fall short, I can't see them keeping pace.

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01-30-2012, 10:27 AM
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I had a feeling our rivals are too far behind to catch up (theoretically its possible, but realistically, not that much).

A good stat to back that up. All we need to do is catch up one of Ottawa, New Jersey, or worse of Florida or Washington.

Let's not screw this up, not again.

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01-30-2012, 10:30 AM
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Igy
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Florida hasn't been doing very well lately and I can definitely see Ottawa starting to cool down but still securing a spot.

I predict Florida misses the playoffs. Leafs take the 7th spot.

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01-30-2012, 10:36 AM
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Ari91
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People need to keep in mind the ebb and flow of each time. When we lost to Ottawa last time, people were harping on how we were 10 points back of them and no chance to catch up. Just like that, Sens hit a losing streak and with the games in hand, Toronto has the opportunity to pull ahead by 1 point in the standings. Basically it comes down to the fact that the standings between the bubble teams are too tight for any of these teams to feel comfortable in losing any game from here on out because to earn a playoff spot, it's not just about how much you win, but how much the teams around you lose.

The East conference has had some parity from top to bottom, far more than the West so however many points end up being the cutoff, I predict that the East cutoff will be lower than the West.

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01-30-2012, 10:43 AM
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"required 95 points"

what in the world? there's no reason to expect this to be the cutoff. i'm hoping we get 96 points because i'm hoping we finish sixth, but if you told me right now we'd finish with 93, i'd expect a playoff spot with it.

on sportsclubstats right now, the 'most common record' that gets us to 8th is 16-14-3. that's only 35 more points.

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01-30-2012, 10:44 AM
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Florida has to be the team on the out. It defies logic if they're not.

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01-30-2012, 10:45 AM
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Leaf Rocket
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wrong thread.

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01-30-2012, 10:48 AM
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Morguee
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MattVenca View Post
Attachment 52121

The last two columns are the most telling. In order for a team to achieve the benchmark minimum 95 points to make the playoffs, what is the points per game required? And what does that equate to in points over a full-season pace?

For even Winnipeg to achieve 95 points, they must play the rest of the season at the exact same pace that the Rangers have played this season. Winnipeg must play like a first place team for the rest of the entire season just to get 95 points.

Based on this, I think it is next to safe to say Winnipeg, Montreal, Tampa Bay, NYI, Buffalo and Carolina are all out of the hunt.

Out of Florida, Ottawa and Toronto...two will make the playoffs.
NJ isn't exactly a lock in their situation. If they end up trading Parise because of financial trouble they just may go into full on tank mode.

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01-30-2012, 10:51 AM
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MattVenca
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kibago View Post
"required 95 points"

what in the world? there's no reason to expect this to be the cutoff. i'm hoping we get 96 points because i'm hoping we finish sixth, but if you told me right now we'd finish with 93, i'd expect a playoff spot with it.

on sportsclubstats right now, the 'most common record' that gets us to 8th is 16-14-3. that's only 35 more points.
2011: 93 pts
2010: 88 pts
2009: 93 pts
2008: 94 pts
2007: 92 pts

Based on this you are probably right, 93 points is a more reasonable cut-off.

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01-30-2012, 10:53 AM
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MattVenca
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Originally Posted by Morguee View Post
NJ isn't exactly a lock in their situation. If they end up trading Parise because of financial trouble they just may go into full on tank mode.
Very true, this is a huge variable in the equation. I forgot about that. Considering Brodeur's age, it might be very important for the Devils to risk missing the playoffs and trade Parise in order to get a good young goaltender

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01-30-2012, 10:56 AM
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1) Things can change fast. it's not safe to say anyone is out of the hunt, or anyone is locked in.

2) I'd bet on the Leafs outpointing the Sens, Panthers, and Devils the rest of the way.

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01-30-2012, 10:57 AM
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MattVenca
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Originally Posted by Leafidelity View Post
Craig Anderson has cooled off dramatically the past couple weeks, so we may be in for some luck if they keep playing the way they have been infront of Monster.
Yup. And still two games remaining between Toronto and Ottawa.

One is on a HNIC Saturday March 17 in Ottawa. That, I expect, will be a very intense "4-point game"

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01-30-2012, 10:59 AM
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The way hockey tends to work, I wouldn't discount Montreal or Winnipeg.

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01-30-2012, 11:00 AM
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Dayjobdave
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thehealthyscratch View Post
I'm predicting it will take 93 points to make the post season and Ottawa will fall short, I can't see them keeping pace.
Agree.

They're about to have the All Star hangover.

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01-30-2012, 11:08 AM
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The way hockey tends to work, I wouldn't discount Montreal or Winnipeg.
I would

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01-30-2012, 11:11 AM
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Ari91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MattVenca View Post
Very true, this is a huge variable in the equation. I forgot about that. Considering Brodeur's age, it might be very important for the Devils to risk missing the playoffs and trade Parise in order to get a good young goaltender
I had asked Devils fans about their goalie prospects and why the team wouldn't call up a young goalie to shadow Brodeur to at least get a feel for playing with someone of Brodeur's calibre before he retires. I was told that Brodeur is not the mentoring type and overall, I got the sense that their fanbase is content with goalie prospects they have. I think as outsiders, we look at their goalie tandem and assume that it's like that because they have nothing lined up and that would be an issue for the team moving forward but it seems the fans are satisfied with their prospects and aren't worrying about it. Their fanbase would know better than anyone else the quality of prospects they have.

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01-30-2012, 11:19 AM
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number72
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For playoffs the leafs need to win and tie one more game then any of NJ, FLA and WAS do for the remainder of the season (assuming no one beneath them passes the leafs).

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01-30-2012, 11:19 AM
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It can really go either way. A 5+ game losing streak would likely push us out of the playoff picture, a 5+ game winning streak could give us a buffer of 4 points or so.

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01-30-2012, 11:28 AM
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dredeye
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Igy View Post
Florida hasn't been doing very well lately and I can definitely see Ottawa starting to cool down but still securing a spot.

I predict Florida misses the playoffs. Leafs take the 7th spot.
I'm not sure if the leafs will get to the 7th spot but I'd say they'll get in. Florida IMO won't make it. Just way too many loser points from them. They've shown all season they can't win when there's a touch of pressure on them. I believe they did the same thing last season. Started well and slowly slipped out. With a healthy Theodore maybe the make it a little more interesting but I really don't see them holding on.

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01-30-2012, 11:30 AM
  #22
Erza Scarlet
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We won't make it unless Wilson gets this take to wake the **** up when we're playing back to backs. The team might be tired and doesn't mean you don't show up.

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01-30-2012, 11:31 AM
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dredeye
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BonMorrison View Post
The way hockey tends to work, I wouldn't discount Montreal or Winnipeg.
I dont' see the habs doing much of anything. Hopefully, they get close enough to **** themselves out of a good pick.

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01-30-2012, 11:51 AM
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416Leafer
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I'd throw NJ in there too... It looks like it'll be a fight between Toronto-Ottawa-Florida-NJ for the final three spots.

That's what makes it incredibly difficult for Winnipeg to come back. It's not that they're 5 points back, it's that they're 5 points back and have to pass two teams. So even if they play at a fairly high pace, if 3/4 of Tor/Ott/Flor/NJ also play at a high pace, than they don't make it in. One of those teams could falter, but it's unlikely that two would.

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01-30-2012, 12:11 PM
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PasDaSquini
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leafs have a couple games in hand over ottawa so they can close the that gap pretty fast. Also I do not think Florida will be able to keep pace.

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