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Nationals, Wizards, DC United, O's, Ravens....DC area sports II

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Old
02-09-2012, 10:38 AM
  #51
NobodyBeatsTheWiz
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Originally Posted by Appreci8 View Post
I've been very underwhelmed by Barnes, he hasn't lived up to the hype and he isn't as athletic as you would think. MKG I do like, but the problem with Barnes/MKG is their both 3's at the next level, and we already spent two 1sts last draft on 3's. Granted Vesely is more of a hybrid.

Drummond has disappointed me as has Sullinger, Robinson is the only big not named Davis that seems like a good fit here.
Barnes has been fine. Look at his game log and the consistency of his scoring. He's also shown up in big games. I think he's got Reggie Miller-type potential.

The Wizards aren't in a position to worry about who they drafted last year. If you draft a 3 this year, just move Vesely and/or Singleton in the package to move up for a pick, or for a vet.

I wouldn't touch Drummond or PJ3 with a ten-foot pole.

I don't get the disappointment with Sullinger. He's averaging 17 and 9, while expanding his offensive game to show more perimeter skill. I think he'd actually be a perfect offensive PF for Wall. Could run the high pick-and-roll very well. The reason you're not seeing a big hike in his numbers from last year is that he plays with two very high usage perimeter guys in Thomas and Buford, each averaging more FGA per game than Sullinger. If Matta designed his offense around feeding Sullinger, the kid could probably average 25.

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02-09-2012, 10:39 AM
  #52
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I think we could get a mid-late first for him from a contender (the Clippers strike me as a team that could rally use him) that needs a 2 guard. For all his weaknesses, NY fills it up at times, and can shoot and man up on defense. A team acquiring him wouldn't need to free up any cap space, as his salary would fit under the mid-level exception.

JR Smith coming on the market soon hurts Nick's value, but you could be right. I certainly hope you are, I can tell you that much.

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02-09-2012, 10:53 AM
  #53
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Barnes has been fine. Look at his game log and the consistency of his scoring. He's also shown up in big games. I think he's got Reggie Miller-type potential.

The Wizards aren't in a position to worry about who they drafted last year. If you draft a 3 this year, just move Vesely and/or Singleton in the package to move up for a pick, or for a vet.

I wouldn't touch Drummond or PJ3 with a ten-foot pole.

I don't get the disappointment with Sullinger. He's averaging 17 and 9, while expanding his offensive game to show more perimeter skill. I think he'd actually be a perfect offensive PF for Wall. Could run the high pick-and-roll very well. The reason you're not seeing a big hike in his numbers from last year is that he plays with two very high usage perimeter guys in Thomas and Buford, each averaging more FGA per game than Sullinger. If Matta designed his offense around feeding Sullinger, the kid could probably average 25.
Yeah not high on PJ3, but Drummond can be a star with more seasoning. He's likely to return anyways.

Stat sheet doesn't tell the whole story on Barnes. He's efficient, but not dominant. Not overly explosive or athletic. I see him in the mold of Luol Deng.

Sullinger's problem is frankly he's overweight and not athletic. When faced against a good post defender he resorts to a finesse perimeter game. At the next level I can't see him being the force he is right now, particularly imposing his will on the block.

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02-09-2012, 10:55 AM
  #54
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Sullinger's problem is frankly he's overweight and not athletic. When faced against a good post defender he resorts to a finesse perimeter game. At the next level I can't see him being the force he is right now, particularly imposing his will on the block.
This.

To me, he just screams problems at the NBA level in both performance and health.

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02-09-2012, 01:29 PM
  #55
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Sullinger reminds me a lot of Zach Randolph, except he's got higher BB IQ. Sullinger's large frame is what makes him so effective in the low post and on the boards.

And watching him on TV, I don't get the impression he's that out of shape at all. He's just wide. He also tweeted a shirtless picture of himself a few months ago, and he wasn't fat at all. *no homo*

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02-09-2012, 02:31 PM
  #56
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I am starting to have reservations about Bryce Harper.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...html#pagebreak

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02-09-2012, 02:42 PM
  #57
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I wonder what the Mormon version of Namath even is, though.

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02-09-2012, 05:00 PM
  #58
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Won't matter a hill of beans when he hits 40+ jacks. He's a stud and that's all there is to it. He's going to be a terror when he joins the Yanks or Sox and is this cocky multiplied there.

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02-09-2012, 05:39 PM
  #59
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Won't matter a hill of beans when he hits 40+ jacks. He's a stud and that's all there is to it. He's going to be a terror when he joins the Yanks or Sox and is this cocky multiplied there.
I have no idea why people talk about Harper leaving like it's a forgone conclusion (he could leave obviously, but there is no reason to be overly pessimistic on that front imo). When he approaches the end of his service time with the Nats this will be a club steeped in cash (renegotiated and constantly increasing MASN share, ascending attendance (likely), fantastic stadium deal, plus the national television rights deal baseball splits with the clubs respectively), they play in a major market, they've improved as an organization as much as any club in baseball the last few seasons in terms of scouting, player development and club attractiveness, and this could very easily be a consistent, contending team over the next decade. That doesn't guarantee that Harper stays in DC his entire career, but the Nats will be well positioned financially and otherwise to keep him in the fold, and I have no doubt that they'll be extremely motivated to keep him at home if he lives up to his advanced billing.

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02-09-2012, 05:45 PM
  #60
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David Clyde

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02-09-2012, 05:53 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
David Clyde
I have no interest in seeing Harper rushed, and in any event, the increased gate numbers I expect are going to be mostly derived from a winning product, not individual gate attractions (although the ideal would be a combination of the two).

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02-10-2012, 07:29 AM
  #62
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Looks like Randy Edsall, or more likely Mike Locksley, is going to land the #2 WR recruit in the nation beating out schools like Auburn, Florida, and OSU.

http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports...opt-for-terps/

Apparently the kid will announce at a banquet tonight at Good Counsel, so anything can happen between now and then, but if UMD could keep this kid in state that would be a huge moral victory for Edsall.

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02-10-2012, 08:17 AM
  #63
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You think they're going to break the bank for him?

I don't. I also think his nature will lend itself to wanting to go to the best team possible.


Edsall is still a tool bag. If he gets him, and he gets better recruits, it's all Locksley. That guy is slick and slimy, but knows how to get recruits. Too bad there will be no one to throw to him.

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02-10-2012, 09:17 AM
  #64
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You think they're going to break the bank for him?

I don't. I also think his nature will lend itself to wanting to go to the best team possible.


Edsall is still a tool bag. If he gets him, and he gets better recruits, it's all Locksley. That guy is slick and slimy, but knows how to get recruits. Too bad there will be no one to throw to him.
He's a Boras client. Only thing that will matter is $$$, hard to predict what they'll be able to do at that point. But yeah, I wouldn't count on him staying unless this team is doing pretty well and the DC market (and therefore budget) is closer to its potential at that point.

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02-10-2012, 09:40 AM
  #65
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Originally Posted by Chimaera View Post
You think they're going to break the bank for him?

I don't. I also think his nature will lend itself to wanting to go to the best team possible.


Edsall is still a tool bag. If he gets him, and he gets better recruits, it's all Locksley. That guy is slick and slimy, but knows how to get recruits. Too bad there will be no one to throw to him.
I do think they'll break the bank for him if he lives up to his advanced billing. The Nats are going to have an entirely different reputation around baseball in six or seven years (it's already improved now), and that combined with a team flush with cash (they already have a significant revenue surplus now, and it's going to expand widely by the time Harper is a free agent), playing in a major market that's going to be "one of the hot teams in baseball" according to Peter Gammons during the first half of his baseball career, and just a general familiarity with the team and area I expect will give the Nationals a legitimate shot to keep him here over the long haul I think. It doesn't guarantee them anything of course, but I feel decently confident that if things go according to plan that they'll be a leading contender to retain his services.

Worse case scenario, they can't reach some type of agreement with him well in advance of his service time being over, they put him on the market to the highest bidder, and likely move him for a gaggle of A type prospects ala Tex, so I'm not fretting either way.

On the Edsall front, Urban Meyer once called the DC metro area the most underrated bastion of football talent in the country. Obviously Texas, SoCal, Florida and Ohio produce the most football talent in the country, but when you look at the amount of great players that this region has produced over the last decade or so (Vernon and Vontae Davis, Arrelious Benn, NaVorro Bowman, Josh Cribbs, Joe Haden, Marvin Austin, Byron Leftwich, Phil Taylor, Orlando Brown, Jonathon Ogden, Shawne Merriman, Josh Wilson, Jerry Porter, Darius Heyward Bey, Derrick Williams and I can honestly go on and on) and the fact that just this past year the region has produced the number one d tackle prospect in the country (Eddie Goldman out of DC), the number two ranked receiver, the number 4 ranked corner in the country (the Darby kid out of Oxon Hill), and the number 27 ranked athlete, another kid out of DC. And, supposedly there is a kid that attends the same school as Goldman that projects to be the number one ranked CB in the country in two years. This area is a trove of talent and when you expand Edsall's purview to its natural boundaries (the entire state of MD and into Virginia), you add another sizable metropolitan area in Baltimore, more talent statewide, and you dip into another state replete with talent in VA. He has to recruit this region better, the quality of player is there for him to make noise in the conference consistently.


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02-10-2012, 10:01 AM
  #66
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I do think they'll break the bank for him if he lives up to his advanced billing. The Nats are going to have an entirely different reputation around baseball in six or seven years (it's already improved now), and that combined with a team flush with cash (they already have a significant revenue surplus now, and it's going to expand widely by the time Harper is a free agent), playing in a major market that's going to be "one of the hot teams in baseball" according to Peter Gammons during the first half of his baseball career, and just a general familiarity with the team and area I expect will give the Nationals a legitimate shot to keep him here over the long haul I think. It doesn't guarantee them anything of course, but I feel decently confident that if things go according to plan that they'll be a leading contender to retain his services.

Worse case scenario, they can't reach some type of agreement with him well in advance of his service time being over, they put him on the market to the highest bidder, and likely move him for a gaggle of A type prospects ala Tex, so I'm not fretting either way.

On the Edsall front, Urban Meyer once called the DC metro area the most underrated bastion of football talent in the country. Obviously Texas, SoCal, Florida and Ohio produce the most football talent in the country, but when you look at the amount of great players that this region has produced over the last decade or so (Vernon and Vontae Davis, Arrelious Benn, NaVorro Bowman, Josh Cribbs, Joe Haden, Marvin Austin, Byron Leftwich, Phil Taylor, Orlando Brown, Jonathon Ogden, Shawne Merriman, Josh Wilson, Jerry Porter, Darius Heyward Bey, Derrick Williams and I can honestly go on and on) and the fact that just this past year the region has produced the number one d tackle prospect in the country (Eddie Goldman out of DC), the number two ranked receiver, the number 4 ranked corner in the country (the Darby kid out of Oxon Hill), and the number 27 ranked athlete, another kid out of DC. And, supposedly there is a kid that attends the same school as Goldman that projects to be the number one ranked CB in the country in two years. This area is a trove of talent and when you expand Edsall's purview to its natural boundaries (the entire stated of MD and into Virginia), you add another sizable metropolitan area in Baltimore, more talent statewide, and you dip into another state replete with talent in VA. He has to recruit this region better, the quality of player is there for him to make noise in the conference consistently.
The Nats are flush with cash because the Lerners are notoriously stingy. This team has needed an upgraded offense for years but they still haven't lifted a finger to spend some real $$. They're already becoming one of those teams where the name gets mentioned as a potential suitor but then they always get out-bid. Then they go and throw too much money at someone like Werth so they can say see we're trying.

This team's been in a major market since it's inception and they are still floundering. They're in a division with multiple high profile teams and markets. Even the Marlins are finally moving upward with a new park coming and multiple key signings this offseason.

As for them moving him to the highest bidder...the Nats don't exactly have a good track record of doing that either. The White Sox wanted Dunn but the Nats were asking way too much...still, they could have traded him for something back but instead did nothing and he left on his own that winter.

Assuming the Nats will be this superpower in a few years is a big assumption. They can't even shell out or make a move for a decent leadoff hitter. The pitching is a lot better and deeper but it has to be since aside from Zimmerman and Morse they can't hit worth squat.

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02-10-2012, 10:23 AM
  #67
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I laugh when someone suggests that the Lerner's will spend the dollars it will take to keep top talent.

They're cheap. They have a primo-stadium deal and the City is bankrolling their business. Sure, they're going to spend on a player here or there, but when it comes down to it, I don't think you're going to see them pony up the dollars.

Not to mention, when the Yanks and Sox stroke out the checks, no one can compete.

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02-10-2012, 10:31 AM
  #68
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Their only hope might be if Mark is handling the purse strings at that point, or if Ted is still hanging on but desperate for a championship a la Ilitch.

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02-10-2012, 10:33 AM
  #69
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I tend to think most ball players in this era gravitate over time to one of the big clubs (that group is grown beyond just the Yankees and Red Sox, but it's certainly still small). Now that said, it will be fun watching Harper for a few years before we get to that point. It'll be fun. No need to rush ahead to his departure yet, even if it is probable. With that kind of attitude, why watch baseball at all outside of the big markets?

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02-10-2012, 10:54 AM
  #70
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As an Orioles fan, that's more or less my debate. They can't win. Why watch?

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02-10-2012, 11:00 AM
  #71
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The Nats are flush with cash because the Lerners are notoriously stingy. This team has needed an upgraded offense for years but they still haven't lifted a finger to spend some real $$. They're already becoming one of those teams where the name gets mentioned as a potential suitor but then they always get out-bid. Then they go and throw too much money at someone like Werth so they can say see we're trying.

This team's been in a major market since it's inception and they are still floundering. They're in a division with multiple high profile teams and markets. Even the Marlins are finally moving upward with a new park coming and multiple key signings this offseason.

As for them moving him to the highest bidder...the Nats don't exactly have a good track record of doing that either. The White Sox wanted Dunn but the Nats were asking way too much...still, they could have traded him for something back but instead did nothing and he left on his own that winter.

Assuming the Nats will be this superpower in a few years is a big assumption. They can't even shell out or make a move for a decent leadoff hitter. The pitching is a lot better and deeper but it has to be since aside from Zimmerman and Morse they can't hit worth squat.
There's no doubt that the Lerner's have husbanded their resources heretofore and that has contributed significantly to their financial windfall since they've owned the club, but the point remains the lowest estimate I've seen of their profits from last year's season was 40 million dollars, and the highest ranged up to nearly 60 million dollars (since teams aren't forced to disclose their earnings, multiple places including Forbes has taken to making calculations on their own based on multiple metrics and projecting team revenue). That's before the MASN renegotiation, before the increase in attendance that will surely follow with an improved product that features star power (we know that DC can bandwagon with the best cities, especially when there is a marquee attraction or two involved), and before the increase in merchandise sells that the team likely benefits from if Harper/Strasburg/Rendon establish themselves as national stars and the team expands its fan club beyond the DC/Baltimore region, itself the 4th most densely populated region in the country (the DC metro area is very close to being a top 5 metro area in terms of population size in the country, and growing very quickly. Although some of that growth is fueled from people moving to the region and likely retaining their original fandom, that still redounds to the benefit of the Nats when their teams are in town because they'll buy tickets thereby unintentionally adding to the revenue stream. Lots of new residents also switch allegiances or add their new hometown team as a secondary rooting interest.) The region is also very, very affluent, and has an inertia type of reaction to things all its own.

Also, the Lerner's benefit from a sweetheart stadium deals that allows them to pocket a larger percentage of gate expenses, refreshment dollars etc., because the cost of the team was relatively low and the stadium was primarily paid for by the city (so they are less leveraged and not nearly as over extended as some owners in terms of having to pay down debt as a percentage of annual income, especially owners of the more recent variety. The Dodgers for example are expected to sell for 1.3 billion dollars. The Lerners paid 450 million or thereabout for the Nats, significantly less than the cost of the stadium itself). I'm not really suggesting that the Nats are going to be a financial superpower, merely pointing to the fact that the potential is there for them to increase revenue greatly relative to what they are netting now, and by all accounts, they are making money hand over fist now.

I'm definitely placing a good deal of faith in a group that might not deserve it, but there have been signs of a willingness to increase expenditures recently. Increased draft spending, the Werth signing , an uptick to near league median in terms of payroll projection for the upcoming season, the fact that the Nats were in on Fielder (it's easy to say that the Nats don't deserve credit since they didnt sign him, but there is literally NO WAY that the Nats could have in good conscience offered the deal he ended up with given the lack of a DH in the NL), the Gonzalez extension, the imminent Zimmerman lifetime extension (I'm calling that one now) etc. You could be right, and I could be incredibly wrong, but I think that this group is going to step up to the plate and make a great offer to the kid when the time comes.

Also, the Dunn situation is completely different than what the Harper situation could metastasize into. The Sox offered Edwin Jackson and a C grade prospect straight up for Dunn (albeit in their minds thinking that it was the deal Rizzo was looking for), Rizzo decided that the Nats would be better off taking the return that would come from losing a type A free agent (ostensibly), and was proven right. If Harper develops into the player most project him to, you're looking at AT LEAST a comparable return to what the Rangers got for Tex, and potentially even more. That type of return would compel a move I think if it looks like Harper is planning to test the market.


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02-10-2012, 11:12 AM
  #72
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I laugh when someone suggests that the Lerner's will spend the dollars it will take to keep top talent.

They're cheap. They have a primo-stadium deal and the City is bankrolling their business. Sure, they're going to spend on a player here or there, but when it comes down to it, I don't think you're going to see them pony up the dollars.

Not to mention, when the Yanks and Sox stroke out the checks, no one can compete.
Teams can compete with the Yanks and Sox for individual players though, they just can't sign four or five premier type players like those clubs can. Texas, Anaheim, The Dodgers, Detroit, San Fran is going to emerge soon, the Phillies, the Cubs, Atlanta, the White Sox, the Orioles if they were a well run organization and maximizing their profit share could etc. The Nats will be able to absorb multiple big ticket contracts in the next five years, watch. They could do it now really, and when they increase their revenue stream, which they undoubtedly will, they'll be able to sign those players if they choose (although in this case it would likely mean retaining Zim, Harper and potentially Strasburg should he prove to be a bonafied, durable ace), and fill out a competent lineup around them.

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02-10-2012, 11:48 AM
  #73
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That's IF (and this is a gigantic if) the fans actually show up. That's an awful big stadium that averages 25k, and really only gets those numbers because of Philly fans and other out of towners who pack the house.

At the end of the day, that's barely more than the Orioles (who everyone KNEW were going to be dire and have no real future) and there's no guarantee it will improve.

Personally, I think there's a debate if DC actually will support a team.

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02-10-2012, 12:14 PM
  #74
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That's IF (and this is a gigantic if) the fans actually show up. That's an awful big stadium that averages 25k, and really only gets those numbers because of Philly fans and other out of towners who pack the house.

At the end of the day, that's barely more than the Orioles (who everyone KNEW were going to be dire and have no real future) and there's no guarantee it will improve.

Personally, I think there's a debate if DC actually will support a team.
To be fair, since you made the Oriole comparison, the Orioles' figure is doubly inflated by the fact that the Sox and Yanks pack their stadium twice as often as the Philly fans pack the Nats stadium, so even if you removed those three teams from both club's schedule, the Nats would still have sold appreciably more tickets to games than the O's did. In fact, the margin would probably be wider. And the Nats have literally done nothing to galvanize the locals here in any appreciable manner. IN THEIR HISTORY. 0 winning seasons, 0 buzz prior to any season about them actually winning anything of note etc. This is without a doubt the nadir of their existence from a fan support perspective, and I don't think it's unreasonable at all to expect a sizable leap in fan support from where they are now in the future considering the pieces that will be assembled here in the next few years and the general thirst this region has for a winner of any type. Win and I have no doubt that there will be an avalanche of support for this team, especially if the O's continue to flounder and they are able to more thoroughly consolidate the fandom in the metro area.


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02-10-2012, 12:22 PM
  #75
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The attitude of the average baseball fan, not lucky enough to be in one the have markets, is that of the average European football fan who does not happen to live in Madrid or London or Barcelona, Manchester or Munich or Milan. The MLB system is predisposed to reward a small collection of teams whose power dwarfs that of teams organized ostensibly to compete with those same behemoths. Do you give it up altogether or adjust expectations?

Most fans in Europe root for their local favorite team to achieve small victories, and adopt one of the Titans for the big dance. In baseball, I'm a Yankee fan (some residual impact of my time in NJ) late in the year, but I cheer for the Nationals, however improbable that they can win it all without the checkbook and the cachet.

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