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Old
02-01-2012, 08:57 PM
  #301
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Originally Posted by OccupySheen View Post
Wow, even when someone provides facts you continue to spit in the face of them.
I don't see how he spat in someone's face there. He's just pointing out that the stats aren't telling the whole story and IMO he's right. Someone pointed out Lubo's numbers, but anyone who's watched him this season knows he's no where near last year's level. Not that he's been horrible, but he went from top offensive defenseman last year, to what I'd call now a 3rd defenseman. He's not played like a top defenseman at any time this year. I'd actually say Sbisa has outplayed him several times as well. His stats might be great, but his play has been good at best. When he came back from injury he was definitely better then he was to start the season, but he's not anywhere close to last year's level. Anyone who watches him can see that.

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02-01-2012, 09:01 PM
  #302
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I didn't realize you were going to put so much context into the number. But yes, letting him walk for nothing is entirely unacceptable for a team that doesn't participate in free agency or draft particularly high.

As for trading everyone else, you're taking what I'm saying to the absolute extreme. As I've been saying over, and over, and over, Visnovsky's situation is unique because he may very well be on the precipice of a major decline period, over which his value will sink exponentially.
You basically want to trade him because of what could, maybe, there's a chance of it happening.

I'm not the biggest Visnovsky fan, and there are nights I think he's just a glorified PP specialist, but the guy gets results. I just don't like the idea of trading a player because his value could decline, before Murray even has a chance to talk with him about a future contract. Have you considered that Lubo might want to play for a couple more years? That he likes it in Southern California?

The guy is not even one season removed from being the NHL leader in points for a defenseman, and you want to trade him because of what could happen. That's a bit much for me, I'm sorry. It just screams to me.

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02-01-2012, 09:02 PM
  #303
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Originally Posted by Duckstudd269 View Post
I don't see how he spat in someone's face there. He's just pointing out that the stats aren't telling the whole story and IMO he's right. Someone pointed out Lubo's numbers, but anyone who's watched him this season knows he's no where near last year's level. Not that he's been horrible, but he went from top offensive defenseman last year, to what I'd call now a 3rd defenseman. He's not played like a top defenseman at any time this year. I'd actually say Sbisa has outplayed him several times as well. His stats might be great, but his play has been good at best. When he came back from injury he was definitely better then he was to start the season, but he's not anywhere close to last year's level. Anyone who watches him can see that.
I tend to start annoying people when I go on one man arguing sessions, hah.

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02-01-2012, 09:05 PM
  #304
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Originally Posted by Static View Post
I wouldn't trade him for a straight first from a playoff bound team, but I wouldn't consider that a legit offer anyway. That's an ok deal if Vis was a UFA to be, and would probably be typical market value for a rental of his caliber.

In this market, with his salary next year, his value should be much higher than that. If you'd rather wait for next year, odds are he isn't the player then that he is now, just like he isn't now what he was one year ago. Suddenly, that first round pick may be a stretch, and all we've gained is a useless half-season from him.
I don't think his value is definitely better now then it would be at the draft. Teams will have different options at each. I think some would offer more now, and others would offer more then. His low salary makes him attractive to budget teams in the draft, where as cap teams may look at him more now.

I just think it all depends on our situation. If we continue this run right up to the deadline and we're in the heat of the run, then trading him would be a giant mistake unless we make move for someone of his caliber. I just don't see that second part happening.

I will say this though, if you don't think a 1st is even a legitimate offer right now, then I think your thinking he is going to possibly fetch much more then I think he would.

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02-01-2012, 09:07 PM
  #305
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Originally Posted by Duckstudd269 View Post
I don't see how he spat in someone's face there. He's just pointing out that the stats aren't telling the whole story and IMO he's right. Someone pointed out Lubo's numbers, but anyone who's watched him this season knows he's no where near last year's level. Not that he's been horrible, but he went from top offensive defenseman last year, to what I'd call now a 3rd defenseman. He's not played like a top defenseman at any time this year. I'd actually say Sbisa has outplayed him several times as well. His stats might be great, but his play has been good at best. When he came back from injury he was definitely better then he was to start the season, but he's not anywhere close to last year's level. Anyone who watches him can see that.
Last season was a career year though. For him and Lydman both. I don't think it's fair, to either of them, to hold them to that standard every year. He doesn't need to be the same defenseman he was last season to be valuable for Anaheim, and the truth is I don't think anyone is going to trade for him based on last season. Not solely because of it, anyway. We're not talking about some young spud breaking out. At this point in his career, I see a team looking for him because he can help put them over the edge, or because he can mentor. Or, just slotting him in to fill a hole until prospects can take over(like, say, here).

I can't believe I'm defending him.

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02-01-2012, 09:08 PM
  #306
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
You basically want to trade him because of what could, maybe, there's a chance of it happening.

I'm not the biggest Visnovsky fan, and there are nights I think he's just a glorified PP specialist, but the guy gets results. I just don't like the idea of trading a player because his value could decline, before Murray even has a chance to talk with him about a future contract. Have you considered that Lubo might want to play for a couple more years? That he likes it in Southern California?

The guy is not even one season removed from being the NHL leader in points for a defenseman, and you want to trade him because of what could happen. That's a bit much for me, I'm sorry. It just screams to me.
If he had another year left, it would be different. This is just the perfect storm of circumstances.

And what I'm saying could happen is not a stab in the dark. It's a deduction from looking at other players and his own injury history, plus looking at the current trade market. These aren't random points thrown into a sack.

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02-01-2012, 09:09 PM
  #307
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02-01-2012, 09:11 PM
  #308
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Originally Posted by Duckstudd269 View Post
I don't think his value is definitely better now then it would be at the draft. Teams will have different options at each. I think some would offer more now, and others would offer more then. His low salary makes him attractive to budget teams in the draft, where as cap teams may look at him more now.

I just think it all depends on our situation. If we continue this run right up to the deadline and we're in the heat of the run, then trading him would be a giant mistake unless we make move for someone of his caliber. I just don't see that second part happening.

I will say this though, if you don't think a 1st is even a legitimate offer right now, then I think your thinking he is going to possibly fetch much more then I think he would.
Shane OBrien returned a first. Sure he was younger and cheaper, but he was also not nearly the player. Kaberle returned two firsts as a rental. So yeah, I think a straight first is low.

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02-01-2012, 09:13 PM
  #309
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Originally Posted by Static View Post
If he had another year left, it would be different. This is just the perfect storm of circumstances.

And what I'm saying could happen is not a stab in the dark. It's a deduction from looking at other players and his own injury history, plus looking at the current trade market. These aren't random points thrown into a sack.
Which doesn't change the fact it's still complete speculation on your part, Static. You're looking to move him because of what could happen. That's the bottom line. Murray isn't going to negotiate with him until the season is over, and at that point he'll have some idea of where he stands. Unless Murray gets a great offer, I really don't see him moving Lubo until he at least talks to the guy about the future.

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02-01-2012, 09:17 PM
  #310
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
Last season was a career year though. For him and Lydman both. I don't think it's fair, to either of them, to hold them to that standard every year. He doesn't need to be the same defenseman he was last season to be valuable for Anaheim, and the truth is I don't think anyone is going to trade for him based on last season. Not solely because of it, anyway. We're not talking about some young spud breaking out. At this point in his career, I see a team looking for him because he can help put them over the edge, or because he can mentor. Or, just slotting him in to fill a hole until prospects can take over(like, say, here).

I can't believe I'm defending him.
I agree with you to an extent. I don't think his value as high as Static thinks it is, which is exactly why I think Murray should at least aim high if we are to trade him. IMO it all matters where we are at the deadline.

I'm not expecting him to repeat career numbers, but I am expecting him to be our top defenseman, which he has not been. Any player can be useful, but there's no question he was brought here to be our top guy. He's not been that at all this season. I think his PP play has been subpar this year as well. Well, subpar for his career anyway.

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02-01-2012, 09:18 PM
  #311
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
Which doesn't change the fact it's still complete speculation on your part, Static. You're looking to move him because of what could happen. That's the bottom line. Murray isn't going to negotiate with him until the season is over, and at that point he'll have some idea of where he stands. Unless Murray gets a great offer, I really don't see him moving Lubo until he at least talks to the guy about the future.
Probably because waiting to react after what could happen does happen is what leaves teams behind.

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02-01-2012, 09:22 PM
  #312
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Originally Posted by Static View Post
Shane OBrien returned a first. Sure he was younger and cheaper, but he was also not nearly the player. Kaberle returned two firsts as a rental. So yeah, I think a straight first is low.
How Burke got a 1st for SOB is beyond me.

Imo, Kaberle's value was substantually higher then Lubo's at this time. A big part of that is Lubo's play and health this year. If Murray is offered identical value to what Kaberle got, then yes, I would agree that Murray should pounce on that IF we are out of playoff race. I just don't see someone offering that big of a package.

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02-01-2012, 09:23 PM
  #313
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I agree with you to an extent. I don't think his value as high as Static thinks it is, which is exactly why I think Murray should at least aim high if we are to trade him. IMO it all matters where we are at the deadline.

I'm not expecting him to repeat career numbers, but I am expecting him to be our top defenseman, which he has not been. Any player can be useful, but there's no question he was brought here to be our top guy. He's not been that at all this season. I think his PP play has been subpar this year as well. Well, subpar for his career anyway.
No, you're right. Even with Beauchemin's play, and Fowler's development, the assumption was that Visnovsky would be the guy. At least offensively. That hasn't been the case. It probably doesn't help that Lydman just hasn't been as good. Last season, I felt pretty strongly that Lydman was essential to Visnovsky's success at ES. The guy just did so much to allow Visnovsky to open things up, and take chances.

Sbisa has been good, but he's just not the stabilizing force that Lydman was. Not to mention he takes chances of his own, which forces Visnovsky to play a bit differently.

For the right deal, I'm not against moving Lubo; especially if Murray has doubts about Lubo's future in Anaheim. I'm just not keen on moving Lubo because of a "what if" scenario, and that's what this seems to be.

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02-01-2012, 09:27 PM
  #314
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Which doesn't change the fact it's still complete speculation on your part, Static. You're looking to move him because of what could happen. That's the bottom line. Murray isn't going to negotiate with him until the season is over, and at that point he'll have some idea of where he stands. Unless Murray gets a great offer, I really don't see him moving Lubo until he at least talks to the guy about the future.
I don't think Murray needs to wait until next year to decide what to with him. If we are out of the running this year, and the offer is substantual, then make it IMO. It has to be worth giving him up next year. However, if that offer comes, it should be made.

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02-01-2012, 09:28 PM
  #315
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That kind of risk aversion makes for mediocre GMs IMO. Making proper intuitive leaps in "what if" scenarios are what good GMs do. If Murray is going to wait until all options decay into one certainty, that by definition is always selling low.

There are plenty of scenarios where trading Visnovsky before either his re-signing or his evident steep decline are not fully realized is the right way to go. Just because they are based on speculative information doesn't invalidate them, or categorize them as panic moves.

I think you're just being timid.

edit - @ Sojourn.

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02-01-2012, 09:29 PM
  #316
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Probably because waiting to react after what could happen does happen is what leaves teams behind.
Static, you don't even seem to be considering the possibility that Lubo could return. You're just assuming he won't. Murray is in the best position to know, Static, and it's his job to make these decisions.

It's a cliche, but this isn't NHL '12, and players like Visnovsky don't grow on trees. Moving a player just to move him and ensure you get a return is not necessarily the right decision. Especially when moving him leaves a hole, a hole that we can't fill right now and would likely require us to spend other assets.

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02-01-2012, 09:30 PM
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No, you're right. Even with Beauchemin's play, and Fowler's development, the assumption was that Visnovsky would be the guy. At least offensively. That hasn't been the case. It probably doesn't help that Lydman just hasn't been as good. Last season, I felt pretty strongly that Lydman was essential to Visnovsky's success at ES. The guy just did so much to allow Visnovsky to open things up, and take chances.

Sbisa has been good, but he's just not the stabilizing force that Lydman was. Not to mention he takes chances of his own, which forces Visnovsky to play a bit differently.

For the right deal, I'm not against moving Lubo; especially if Murray has doubts about Lubo's future in Anaheim. I'm just not keen on moving Lubo because of a "what if" scenario, and that's what this seems to be.
fair enough.

I agree about Lydman. I don't think the team has to move Lubo either, but I think it should be entertained this deadline if we are out of the running.

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02-01-2012, 09:35 PM
  #318
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Static, you don't even seem to be considering the possibility that Lubo could return. You're just assuming he won't. Murray is in the best position to know, Static, and it's his job to make these decisions.

It's a cliche, but this isn't NHL '12, and players like Visnovsky don't grow on trees. Moving a player just to move him and ensure you get a return is not necessarily the right decision. Especially when moving him leaves a hole, a hole that we can't fill right now and would likely require us to spend other assets.
His contract is coming up regardless. There is nothing saying he can't be re-signed at that time even if he is traded, not that I'd be thrilled with an undersized, frequently injured 37 year old dman being given another chunk of cash.

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02-01-2012, 09:37 PM
  #319
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That kind of risk aversion makes for mediocre GMs IMO. Making proper intuitive leaps in "what if" scenarios are what good GMs do. If Murray is going to wait until all options decay into one certainty, that by definition is always selling low.

There are plenty of scenarios where trading Visnovsky before either his re-signing or his evident steep decline are not fully realized is the right way to go. Just because they are based on speculative information doesn't invalidate them, or categorize them as panic moves.

I think you're just being timid.

edit - @ Sojourn.
There's a difference between taking risks and taking unnecessary risks. Moving Visnovsky right now, because of what could happen at the end of next season, is what I consider an unnecessary risk unless the deal is really sexy.

I said nothing about waiting until all other options decay. I flat out said that Murray should discuss the future with Lubo. Hell, maybe he already has. What I'm proposing is seeing where the path is likely to go. That is what a good GM does, My Cat. He plans, and he anticipates. He doesn't pull the trigger because, well, there's a chance. What he does is he gets more information, and he looks for the right deal.

You might want to take that intuitive leap, but I'd much rather make an informed decision. Take as much chance out of the picture as you can. Holland might be the best GM in the world. How many risky moves do you see him make, My Cat?

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02-01-2012, 09:37 PM
  #320
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That kind of risk aversion makes for mediocre GMs IMO. Making proper intuitive leaps in "what if" scenarios are what good GMs do. If Murray is going to wait until all options decay into one certainty, that by definition is always selling low.

There are plenty of scenarios where trading Visnovsky before either his re-signing or his evident steep decline are not fully realized is the right way to go. Just because they are based on speculative information doesn't invalidate them, or categorize them as panic moves.

I think you're just being timid.

edit - @ Sojourn.
Timid is harsh. The smart GMs make a move in the best interest for their team. Dealing Lubo for the sake of dealing him would be a mistake. There's nothing wrong with seeing what teams offer, but only make the move if it's worth giving up Lubo next year. Dealing him just because he may decline next year would be a mistake. Murray is an idiot if he doesn't at least wait until the deadline before making that decision.

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02-01-2012, 09:42 PM
  #321
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Timid is harsh. The smart GMs make a move in the best interest for their team. Dealing Lubo for the sake of dealing him would be a mistake. There's nothing wrong with seeing what teams offer, but only make the move if it's worth giving up Lubo next year. Dealing him just because he may decline next year would be a mistake. Murray is an idiot if he doesn't at least wait until the deadline before making that decision.
At least. The draft might be a better time. Teams have more room to play. But the important thing for Murray to do is see where things are heading. Some trade deadlines are hotter than others, with a bunch of teams willing to buy high to make that last push. Some are more conservative, with teams more interested in seeing what others do first, and going with the horses that got them there.

If this is a hot deadline, Murray would be wise to strongly consider the offers. Not to get something for him while we can, but because it's a good deal.

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02-01-2012, 09:45 PM
  #322
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BTW - I close down old GDT's when the next game begins, so if you want to continue this discussion you'll need to do it elsewhere.

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