Oh. And one more thing. Let's not forget about ANOTHER trip out west at the beginning of March. Anaheim, San Jose, Vancouver, and Winnipeg. I bet it gets into the teens in March in Winnipeg, no?
Look at this way. They would need 92'ish points to make the playoffs right? NYR was the 8th seed last year with 93. Carolina was 9th with 91.
So they would need to go something like 20-7-4 or some bat**** crazy record. 93 points? 21-7-3.
BUT! You say Montreal made the playoffs in 2010 with 88 points?? Okay, then we still need to go 18-9-4.
Yeah, ain't happening.
Where they will finish? I'll take the bottom of the pile at between 13th - 15th. Almost a 75% chance of it. Hell, I would put A LOT of money on it too.
Agreed. Last week, the Globe and Mail reported that an Eastern Conference team would need 93 points to make the playoffs, and for the Sabres that would have taken a 24-9-0 record at the time. We're not going to win three out of four games from here-on-out; the top teams may not even win at that clip, as they're more likely at a consistent two out of three.
And like I said earlier in this thread, it'd also take teams to surge along with us (so two of CAR, MTL, NYI, & TBL), and another one to tank (7th and/or 8th). For instance, last year the NJD and TML surged, while ATL free-falled out of 8th. It's got to be ridiculous odds/luck to do it again.
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As usual in the NHL, where parity rules, just a handful of teams are so far gone that they are already thinking next-season thoughts. And even those with just the slightest mathematical hint of a hope can point to the 2009 NHL all-star break, when the 15th-place team in the Western Conference standings that year, the St. Louis Blues, climbed all the way to sixth spot by season’s end and qualified for the playoffs with a fabulous final push.
The Blues made up nine points in the final 10 weeks, and that rally will hearten Randy Cunneyworth’s Montreal Canadiens, who find themselves 11th in the Eastern Conference standings, eight points back of a playoff spot, and needing the same sort of alchemy that St. Louis manufactured three years ago to play themselves into contention.
Or think about last season, when the Buffalo Sabres were sitting 10th at the all-star break, six points behind the eighth-place Atlanta Thrashers. Ultimately, Buffalo surged, Atlanta faded and the Sabres gained a whopping 22 points on the Thrashers in the final 10 weeks of the season.
That’s good news for the former Thrashers, now residing in Winnipeg and known as the Jets, who are ninth in the East and just five points back of the three teams tied for the final two playoff spots in the conference – the Florida Panthers, New Jersey Devils and Toronto Maple Leafs, all settled in at 55 points. If Buffalo could do it last year, Winnipeg can manage it this year.
The Leafs were just 19-25-5 at the break in 2010-11 before suddenly turning in a remarkable final 33 games, getting stellar goaltending from James Reimer and a few other surprises along the way.
Because they were so far back of the pack, however, their 18-9-6 run merely trimmed a 14-point disadvantage down to eight by season’s end.
This time around, Toronto is 25-19-5 and doesn’t need to play catch-up nearly as much as they have in the recent past. The home stretch is more about simply pushing past one of the five teams directly in front of them in the Eastern Conference.
And like I said earlier in this thread, it'd also take teams to surge along with us (so two of CAR, MTL, NYI, & TBL), and another one to tank (7th and/or 8th). For instance, last year the NJD and TML surged, while ATL free-falled out of 8th. It's got to be ridiculous odds/luck to do it again.
All good points.
Fact is, UNLIKE last season, there is a giant glut of teams in the bottom 5. The teams ranking 11-15 are only seperated by 2 points. That's right: #11 is TWO points out of 15th! The Sabres currently sit in 13th. The bottom 5 are also all about 9-11 points out of 8th. And let's not forget about the teams sitting at #9 & #10, who are themselves a few points out of 8th, but are also a few points ahead of the bottom-5-glut.
For the Sabres to squeak in, SEVEN OTHER TEAMS would have to drop away, while the Sabres surged. SEVEN! This isn't even just about how well THEY can do, because even if they do well, they're still very unlikely to break out of this glut. I don't even think they'll sustain a surge of any significance, no less see more than a couple teams fade back.
Last edited by Squantosawuss: 02-05-2012 at 11:43 PM.
Their only hope is for Ottawa AND Toronto to drop fast in the standings and sneak in with the spot that the Florida/Washington loser opens up.
Basically if you want Buffalo to make the playoffs you better start rooting for Washington to start stringing together 5 game winning streaks to "steal" a bunch of points from other teams, boot Florida out of the playoffs and to have the #7 and #8 teams start losing 5 games in a row. All while Buffalo maintains a .800% win ratio. It's just not going to happen for a 2nd year in a row.
Their only hope is for Ottawa AND Toronto to drop fast in the standings and sneak in with the spot that the Florida/Washington loser opens up.
Basically if you want Buffalo to make the playoffs you better start rooting for Washington to start stringing together 5 game winning streaks to "steal" a bunch of points from other teams, boot Florida out of the playoffs and to have the #7 and #8 teams start losing 5 games in a row. All while Buffalo maintains a .800% win ratio. It's just not going to happen for a 2nd year in a row.
I agree that it's extremely unlikely. They should just aim for 93 pts, not worry about what other teams do, and let the chips fall where they may if they can get to 93. Right now is when they have to make their hay. Miller's hot, the defense is playing better, and they're finally starting to outshoot teams, both in SOG and shots at net (SOG + Blocked Shots + Missed Shots). During their losing streak, those stats were embarrassingly lopsided in favor of their opponents. At the very least, their vital signs are starting to improve.
They need to be no worse than 5-1-0 over the next six to have a chance. Even then they'd probably need one additional red-hot stretch to make it. I don't like their chances, but the next six games will tell us a lot.
Their only hope is for Ottawa AND Toronto to drop fast in the standings and sneak in with the spot that the Florida/Washington loser opens up.
Basically if you want Buffalo to make the playoffs you better start rooting for Washington to start stringing together 5 game winning streaks to "steal" a bunch of points from other teams, boot Florida out of the playoffs and to have the #7 and #8 teams start losing 5 games in a row. All while Buffalo maintains a .800% win ratio. It's just not going to happen for a 2nd year in a row.
The mathematics of it are sobering. For them to simply string together winning 4-of-5 for the remainder of the season is improbably enough, let alone having the stars align to have someone else fall out of contention.
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It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. - Aristotle
Pretty much everyone that has posted, including the OP, has said they aren't going to make the playoffs.
Funny you criticize me but you don't come back to apologize. That's okay sometimes I can think more outside the box then most people no offense Dreaken, just read around next time.
The problem with this little winning streak is that it's against weak ass teams that aren't playoff bound. We ended up not even scoring against the NYR and losing in a shootout.
We are so far behind at this point with fewer and fewer games remaining to catch up with. If we can't beat the teams that are in the playoffs often we're not going to make the playoffs ourselves.
Boston tonight will be a good test. If we can win against them and score 3 out of 4 against Dallas/TB then I'd say we have a decent shot. If we flub and only manage 2 or 3 points out of those games. It's time to start selling short and buying long at the deadline.
According to Sports Club’s numbers, Buffalo will probably need a record of 18-8-3 (64.9 percent chance to make it), 18-7-4 (80.3 percent chance) or better for a good chance to play beyond 82 games. So the question is: can they earn 39-40 points in those 29 games?
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Schedules can often make or break these situations. Buffalo plays seven of its next eight games at home, including matches against fellow East contenders. Getting regulation wins in that span would improve their outlook, but surviving a flip-side stretch of seven of eight road games will be just as crucial.
Overall, the Sabres will play one more road game (15) than home contest (14), but the other big factor is that they have five back-to-back sets left. Looking at those numbers, one would say that Buffalo’s schedule is a wash – at best.
Quote:
Teams expected to make it
6) Toronto – 86 percent
7) Washington – 79.2 percent
8) Florida – 67 percent
I still don't think they'll do it. SCS's odds (3.2%) seem about right to me. They'll have to say this hot for the entire rest of the season, which seems improbable.
But just for fun, here's the path to the playoffs:
Fri, Feb 10 vs Dallas W
Sat, Feb 11 vs Tampa Bay W
Tue, Feb 14 vs New Jersey OTL
Thu, Feb 16 @ Philadelphia W
Fri, Feb 17 vs Montreal W
Sun, Feb 19 vs Pittsburgh W
Tue, Feb 21 vs NY Islanders W
Fri, Feb 24 vs Boston OTL
Sat, Feb 25 @ NY Rangers L
Wed, Feb 29 @ Anaheim W
Thu, Mar 1 @ San Jose L
Sat, Mar 3 @ Vancouver OTL
Mon, Mar 5 @ Winnipeg W
Wed, Mar 7 vs Carolina W
Thu, Mar 8 @ Boston L
Sat, Mar 10 @ Ottawa W
Mon, Mar 12 vs Montreal W
Wed, Mar 14 vs Colorado W
Sat, Mar 17 @ Florida L
Mon, Mar 19 @ Tampa Bay W
Wed, Mar 21 vs Montreal W
Fri, Mar 23 @ NY Rangers OTL
Sat, Mar 24 vs Minnesota W
Tue, Mar 27 @ Washington W
Fri, Mar 30 vs Pittsburgh L
Sat, Mar 31 @ Toronto L
Tue, Apr 3 vs Toronto W
Thu, Apr 5 @ Philadelphia L
Sat, Apr 7 @ Boston W
18-7-4 to end the season will give the Sabres 92 points, which is an 80% chance of making the playoffs.
NBC Pro Hockey Talk obviously ... but the SCS numbers aren't wrong .. if we continue to win, our percentages obviously go up (ie. +1.9 with our win over Boston); it doesn't factor IF we go on a run, it factors WHEN we go on one.
Feb. 2010 (~57GP) SCS Archive versus 2010 Playoff Bracket; all teams at over 70% made the playoffs; BOS made it as 6th seed at ~45%, while similar ATL + FLA teams did not; DET made it as a 5th seed at ~45%, while CGY at ~50% did not; and MTL made it as 8th seed at ~25%, while ATL + FLA tanked, and similar TBL + NYR teams did not.
SCS' formula is pretty much flipping a coin for all games not involving the team itself. I could tell you the Sabres won't make the playoffs, assign an arbitrary number, and be as right come April.
Dont care about numbers or percentages right now. Their main goal for the rest of this month should be to close the gap with Ottawa and not worry at all about Mon, TB, NYI, WPG & FLA (none of whom are exactly world beaters right now)
SCS' formula is pretty much flipping a coin for all games not involving the team itself.
Incorrect. They use a weighted formula that "takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win."
They also simulate the season and calculate odds by the 50-50 coin flip method you describe. Under that less accurate scenario, the Sabres currently have an 11.3% chance of making the playoffs.
Incorrect. They use a weighted formula that "takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win."
They also simulate the season and calculate odds by the 50-50 coin flip method you describe. Under that less accurate scenario, the Sabres currently have an 11.3% chance of making the playoffs.
I was indeed referring to the latter, but I wasn't aware of the former. Mea culpa.
In investigating the former, this stuck out like a sore thumb to me.
Quote:
Errors creep in when a team's true current strength is different from what their record implies.
"Errors creep in when a team's true current strength is different from what their record implies."
Anyone else feel that applies here?
Who's to say what a team's "true current strength" is?
You can feel in your heart that you're the best team in the league, but if it doesn't show up in wins and losses, then that doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot. At the end of the day, your record is what determines whether you make the playoffs or not.
Who's to say what a team's "true current strength" is?
You can feel in your heart that you're the best team in the league, but if it doesn't show up in wins and losses, then that doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot. At the end of the day, your record is what determines whether you make the playoffs or not.
You are what your record says you are.
I think you misunderstood my point. They're not what their record says now, they're what their record says after 82. I think that the record now is a slower pace than where they'll end up. I feel this team has underperformed thus far and will hit a hot streak and perform at a level too high to call their norm.
It would be great if the Sabres "caught lightning in a bottle" and came out of the East and we were lucky enough to come out of the West! A 1970 Expansion Showdown! Perrault and Tallon could drop the puck!
I don't think the sabres will make the playoffs, but i think they will be one of the hotter teams down the stretch and annoy the hell out of the teams that are fighting for better spots. I have to say after reading some of the posts bruin fans wrote during/after the game, it makes make really hate them (the fans even more then the team) after the lockout when we would beat the bruins every game ( I would go to bruins and sabres games cause it was an automatic win for buffalo) we never talked about them the way they talk about us, and we have WAY more reason to hate them, lucic obviously, and when they beat us in the playoffs and knocked vanek out the whole series with a cheap shot, they call us cry babies but then go on and on about the refs giving us the game on wednesday....IT WAS 6-0 not 2-1....the fact that they have a thread about us that has MANY posts means we do our job
