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Old
02-02-2012, 08:58 AM
  #1
sansbruit
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Canucks Two-Year Window

After losing last year, I think this season is going to be our last chance to be favored to win the Cup with our current core

Pittsburgh had their 2 finals appearances and made use of the 2nd one
Blackhawks had their WCF then SCF appearance and won the 2nd time

Sharks were considered possibly the best team in the league a couple years back only to be eliminated back-to-back years in WCF, and I really think their core is finished as far as contending for the Cup

We have to take advantage of last season and this season with Crosby missing playoffs last year and likely this year too, because if we don't I really doubt we're going to have a shot beating Pittsburgh. At least we know we can last 7 games against Boston, but a full roster Pittsburgh =(

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02-02-2012, 09:19 AM
  #2
deckercky
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If you look at the salary structure, the window was last year, this year and next year. Aside from the Sharks, it's been losing players due to cap constraints that's cost the teams. Almost the entire Canucks team is under contract through next year.

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02-02-2012, 09:23 AM
  #3
BrockH
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sansbruit View Post
After losing last year, I think this season is going to be our last chance to be favored to win the Cup with our current core

Pittsburgh had their 2 finals appearances and made use of the 2nd one
Blackhawks had their WCF then SCF appearance and won the 2nd time

Sharks were considered possibly the best team in the league a couple years back only to be eliminated back-to-back years in WCF, and I really think their core is finished as far as contending for the Cup

We have to take advantage of last season and this season with Crosby missing playoffs last year and likely this year too, because if we don't I really doubt we're going to have a shot beating Pittsburgh. At least we know we can last 7 games against Boston, but a full roster Pittsburgh =(
So your argument is...
Teams only have a 2 year window.
Pittsburgh is offered as evidence of this (among others). They won in the second year of their window (which is now implicitly closed).
We have to win this year, because Pittsburgh is will win again when they're healthy.

Anyone else see a flaw in this logic?

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02-02-2012, 09:37 AM
  #4
wholesickcrew
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrockH View Post
So your argument is...
Teams only have a 2 year window.
Pittsburgh is offered as evidence of this (among others). They won in the second year of their window (which is now implicitly closed).
We have to win this year, because Pittsburgh is will win again when they're healthy.

Anyone else see a flaw in this logic?
Yes.



The better logic would be a look at what contracts come up at this point, as has been discussed elsewhere.

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Old
02-02-2012, 09:37 AM
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Luck 6
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Originally Posted by deckercky View Post
If you look at the salary structure, the window was last year, this year and next year. Aside from the Sharks, it's been losing players due to cap constraints that's cost the teams. Almost the entire Canucks team is under contract through next year.
While true, a new window could easily open depending on what Gillis brings us in. Lets say in 2 years Gillis lets Malhotra go, re-signs Burrows for 3mil per year, re-signs Higgins for 2.5mil per year, re-signs LaPierre for 1.25mil per year, re-signs Edler for 5.8mil per year, signs Weber for 6.8mil per year, re-signs Hodgson for 2.2mil per year, etc etc.

We have an excellent framework to be competitive past our 2 year window, I don't think it's that clear cut and dry.

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Booth-Hodgson-Kesler
Higgins-Schroeder-Hansen
xxx-LaPierre-Jensen

Edler-Weber
Hamhuis-Bieksa
xxx-Tanev

Luongo/xxx


It's all on Gillis. We do have some youth coming up that seems like they MAY make the NHL in Schroeder, Jensen, and Tanev. Add to that some free agent signings, HOPEFULLY the major acquisition of Weber, and the idea that the twins can remain PPG players until their late 30's and we seem okay. Eventually Hodgson will take that #2C spot pushing Kesler to wing, which is perfectly fine for him as a shooter. I think we've built a decent blueprint here to be competitive longterm, we need to keep drafting effectively and bringing in young players with potential as much as possible.

This is why we CANNOT trade Hodgson at all costs. He will be a completely vital part of this team in 2 years time, we need him.

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Old
02-02-2012, 09:50 AM
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I can't see next year being all that different than this year.

We have the core players locked up on long term deals. We should hopefully get performance out of ELC players such as Hodgson and Tanev beyond their cap hits. And I believe this is one of the key factors in being a contender

People may argue many teams have more cap flexibility after this year, but look at the projected UFA players going into next year, not too many game changers in there. http://capgeek.com/free_agents.php

At the end of this season we have to resign or replace the following:
  • Mason Raymond (RFA) - Not likely to command much more than his current deal
  • Dale Weise (RFA) - Again, not a big rise required
  • Sami Salo - Does he have one more year in him? If not could Tanev step into the top 4?
  • Cory Schneider - Probably the biggest question mark over the next 6-18 months. Do we retain him? If we donít, how can the potential return we'd get help the team immediately and the future. Could be moved to replace Salo in part and help the depth of prospects etc.

All other things being equal, we have a good top 9, amongst the best in the league. A top 5 goalie tandem. Solid Depth on D. This is likely to be the same next year, if Schneider is moved, it will only compliment other areas, e.g. depth on D

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02-02-2012, 09:51 AM
  #7
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There's too many floating pieces to assume there's only a 2 year window.

I think you're underestimating Gillis' ability of icing a competitive team even in this era we are in now.
I'm not worried at all.

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Old
02-02-2012, 09:56 AM
  #8
sansbruit
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Originally Posted by Jumex View Post
I can't see next year being all that different than this year.

We have the core players locked up on long term deals. We should hopefully get performance out of ELC players such as Hodgson and Tanev beyond their cap hits. And I believe this is one of the key factors in being a contender

People may argue many teams have more cap flexibility after this year, but look at the projected UFA players going into next year, not too many game changers in there. http://capgeek.com/free_agents.php

At the end of this season we have to resign or replace the following:
  • Mason Raymond (RFA) - Not likely to command much more than his current deal
  • Dale Weise (RFA) - Again, not a big rise required
  • Sami Salo - Does he have one more year in him? If not could Tanev step into the top 4?
  • Cory Schneider - Probably the biggest question mark over the next 6-18 months. Do we retain him? If we donít, how can the potential return we'd get help the team immediately and the future. Could be moved to replace Salo in part and help the depth of prospects etc.

All other things being equal, we have a good top 9, amongst the best in the league. A top 5 goalie tandem. Solid Depth on D. This is likely to be the same next year, if Schneider is moved, it will only compliment other areas, e.g. depth on D
I really think if we can win the Cup, then Schneider will be moved, maybe a sign and trade?
I think his future is really dependent upon if we win the Cup or not

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02-02-2012, 10:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sansbruit View Post
After losing last year, I think this season is going to be our last chance to be favored to win the Cup with our current core

Pittsburgh had their 2 finals appearances and made use of the 2nd one
Blackhawks had their WCF then SCF appearance and won the 2nd time

Sharks were considered possibly the best team in the league a couple years back only to be eliminated back-to-back years in WCF, and I really think their core is finished as far as contending for the Cup

We have to take advantage of last season and this season with Crosby missing playoffs last year and likely this year too, because if we don't I really doubt we're going to have a shot beating Pittsburgh. At least we know we can last 7 games against Boston, but a full roster Pittsburgh =(
Canucks are favored?

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02-02-2012, 10:10 AM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sansbruit View Post
After losing last year, I think this season is going to be our last chance to be favored to win the Cup with our current core

Pittsburgh had their 2 finals appearances and made use of the 2nd one
Blackhawks had their WCF then SCF appearance and won the 2nd time

Sharks were considered possibly the best team in the league a couple years back only to be eliminated back-to-back years in WCF, and I really think their core is finished as far as contending for the Cup

We have to take advantage of last season and this season with Crosby missing playoffs last year and likely this year too, because if we don't I really doubt we're going to have a shot beating Pittsburgh. At least we know we can last 7 games against Boston, but a full roster Pittsburgh =(
RW fan coming in piece...I dont buy this logic and actually think its piss poor. The Canucks have a solid foundation in Kesler, Sedin, Sedin...Hodgson is going to come along too...Your D is good as any top team in the NHL..

The Canucks have become a top team in the league and eventually you'll see older vets wanting to play their...Dont worry about the past and or that you have to do it this year...its incredibly hard to win the Cup and the Canucks have the talent for at least the next 5 years to win the cup

Cheers, we are in for a doozy tonight

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02-02-2012, 10:26 AM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sansbruit View Post
After losing last year, I think this season is going to be our last chance to be favored to win the Cup with our current core

Pittsburgh had their 2 finals appearances and made use of the 2nd one
Blackhawks had their WCF then SCF appearance and won the 2nd time

Sharks were considered possibly the best team in the league a couple years back only to be eliminated back-to-back years in WCF, and I really think their core is finished as far as contending for the Cup

We have to take advantage of last season and this season with Crosby missing playoffs last year and likely this year too, because if we don't I really doubt we're going to have a shot beating Pittsburgh. At least we know we can last 7 games against Boston, but a full roster Pittsburgh =(
?
Montreal beat Pittsburgh.... They're not unbeatable.
Should Detroit have wrapped it up after they didn't make it anywhere last season...probably not, they're leading the Western conference right now.

This whole window to win the cup theory doesn't make sense to me
.
A good team that is managed well, has no limit at their chances to win the cup..IE. Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Jose etc etc etc. The reason those teams are at the top of the heap every year is that they have good management that makes savvy trades and stock piles the team with good young talent. The veteran talent they already have is taken care of, and helps to mentor the prospects.


Last edited by B-rock: 02-02-2012 at 10:44 AM.
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Old
02-02-2012, 11:16 AM
  #12
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In the east I see Bost Pha NYR and a healthy Pitts all being nearly equal of being able to make it to the SCF. Throw in a 20% shot for all of the others.

In the West, I see VCR, DET,ST L, CHI as all having a near equal chance of gettting there (though my homer glasses but VCR ahead of the others) but 40% overall chance for SJ, LA and Nash. (LA is not living up to potential, SJ seems to be sliding a bit out of the elite list, and NASH is doing well,; but their playoff history is terrible.) Throw in a 5-10% chance for the rest, and I see the West far tougher.

Would anybody bet long odds against teams I listed being in the finals?

Off topic, I see no reason why we are not going to be competitive again for years.

If we do sign Weber in a couple, we look pretty solid. And we say we are modeling ourselves after DET; they have been elite for what, 16 straight years?

The essential thing for the Canucks is get people to take discounts to play here - Burrows, Lou, Sedins, Hammy, Sami and 2 or 3 others probably took 15% off the market rate. That works out to about $6M addditional cap space to shore up 3rd and 4th lines, 5th 6 th D positions. It gives us an incredible advantage.

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02-02-2012, 11:28 AM
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For me personally I just hope we're at the end of the 40 year window.

You know the one where we don't win a cup during that time? It's going JUST as planned.

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Old
02-02-2012, 11:37 AM
  #14
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I don't buy the narrow window theory. Mike Gillis is following the Detriot model of building a winning organization that can (hopefully) be competitive for a decade. Your development system should be a pipeline, not an explosion.

The Sedins, Kesler are pretty much at their earning peak - relative to the Salary Cap. Their next contracts are not going to have a proportionately higher cap hit than their current ones. Edler and Burrows are due raises. Bieksa, Hamhuis and Luongo are signed long term. We have enough young forwards under 30, our defense is a bit older, but age is not going to be a concern for a few more years.

The key to remaining competitive long term is the development of guys like Hodgson, Tanev, Connauton, Schroeder, Jansen, etc. None of them are going to be asked to be be top tier players right away, but they will have to be significant role players.

It's also crucial to get a good young player (probably a defenceman) for Schneider and to also replace him with a solid backup who can play 20 games per season.

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02-02-2012, 11:40 AM
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2 year window? don't tell that to detroit. they're a perpetual powerhouse.

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02-02-2012, 11:53 AM
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Youth is overrated, experience is underrated. Otherwise the Oilers would be leading the west right now and the Red wings would be in the basement. At the end of the day the best run organizations will continue to stay at the top.

Blackhawks really clouded peoples minds. Now everyone thinks any team with a bunch of young players is going to be contenders but that's not how it works. My favorite threads on HF are the "Stanley Cup contenders in 5 years". Flooded by Oilers! Kings! Islanders! when the hell did these teams hire Ken Holland? In 5 years I'll still put money on the Wings, Canucks, Pens, Blackhawks, etc to be the top contenders. The most important piece of any organization is the GM. Get the right one and you'll be like the Red Wings. Get the wrong one and you'll end up like the Islanders or Oilers.

If you think this team has a 2 year window you probably don't think too highly of Mike Gillis and his abilities.

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02-02-2012, 12:21 PM
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As the Wings fan above mentioned, this whole notion of "windows" is a fickle one, at best. Personnel-wise, things can change quickly. If you have a good system in place with good personnel, your "window" is perpetual - like it is for the Wings. I'm not concerned.

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02-02-2012, 12:28 PM
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As the Wings fan above mentioned, this whole notion of "windows" is a fickle one, at best. Personnel-wise, things can change quickly. If you have a good system in place with good personnel, your "window" is perpetual - like it is for the Wings. I'm not concerned.
In the past for the Red Wings, the non-window seemed perpetual... "The Darkness with Harkness" or the "Detroit Dead Things Era" is a shining example of decades of futility.

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02-02-2012, 12:29 PM
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Let me know when the Sedins start dropping down the scoring charts and then you can speculate on our window closing.

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02-02-2012, 12:33 PM
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Quote:
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In the past for the Red Wings, the non-window seemed perpetual... "The Darkness with Harkness" or the "Detroit Dead Things Era" is a shining example of decades of futility.
Just like the Canucks since inception 'til the 2000s... hey, more parallels between franchises!

I should've specified modern-era Wings.

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02-02-2012, 12:58 PM
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The only problem I see moving forward is having our current 31 year old net minder locked up for another decade.

I can't see his play staying the same after the age of 35. In which we still have him for another 5 years. Scary thought.

Also I know he won't play out his entire contract but what's stopping him from retiring and not collecting his money even at 1-3 million or what ever the salary he will be earning in his final years.

Maybe we will get lucky and the cap rises to 80m he will.be a steal at 41.

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02-02-2012, 12:59 PM
  #22
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Originally Posted by Kickassguy View Post
Just like the Canucks since inception 'til the 2000s... hey, more parallels between franchises!

I should've specified modern-era Wings.
Even the expansion Canucks did not plumb the depths of the Dead Things of that time.

Consider
1976-77 Detroit Red Wings 80GP 16W 55L 9T 41Pts 0.256 "Winning percentage" (Vancouver 63 points - second worst team was the Colorado Rockies with 54 points)

1985-86 Detroit Red Wings 80GP 17W 57L 6T 40Pts .250 "Winning percentage" (Vancouver 59 points - second worst team was Los Angeles Kings with 54 points)

From the 1970-71 season to 1985-86 the Dead Things missed the play-offs 13 years and made it 3 times.

From the 1970-71 season when the Canucks entered the NHL to 1985-86 the Canucks missed the play-offs 7 times and made it 8 times including 6 straight years with a trip to the Finals.

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02-02-2012, 01:03 PM
  #23
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Originally Posted by deckercky View Post
If you look at the salary structure, the window was last year, this year and next year. Aside from the Sharks, it's been losing players due to cap constraints that's cost the teams. Almost the entire Canucks team is under contract through next year.
Pretty much this.

The "value" contracts we have on the team right now are Burrows, Edler, Hodgson, Higgens, Tanev, and Lappy, all expire after next season and at that point it is going to be very difficult to retain all of our talent.

This team has a good shot this year and perhaps an even better shot next year, but after that I think they will have to take a step back and re-tool a little. Although I think they can still be a 100ish point team until the Sedins start to decline.


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02-02-2012, 01:06 PM
  #24
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While true, a new window could easily open depending on what Gillis brings us in. Lets say in 2 years Gillis lets Malhotra go, re-signs Burrows for 3mil per year, re-signs Higgins for 2.5mil per year, re-signs LaPierre for 1.25mil per year, re-signs Edler for 5.8mil per year, signs Weber for 6.8mil per year, re-signs Hodgson for 2.2mil per year, etc etc.

We have an excellent framework to be competitive past our 2 year window, I don't think it's that clear cut and dry.

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Booth-Hodgson-Kesler
Higgins-Schroeder-Hansen
xxx-LaPierre-Jensen

Edler-Weber
Hamhuis-Bieksa
xxx-Tanev

Luongo/xxx


It's all on Gillis. We do have some youth coming up that seems like they MAY make the NHL in Schroeder, Jensen, and Tanev. Add to that some free agent signings, HOPEFULLY the major acquisition of Weber, and the idea that the twins can remain PPG players until their late 30's and we seem okay. Eventually Hodgson will take that #2C spot pushing Kesler to wing, which is perfectly fine for him as a shooter. I think we've built a decent blueprint here to be competitive longterm, we need to keep drafting effectively and bringing in young players with potential as much as possible.

This is why we CANNOT trade Hodgson at all costs. He will be a completely vital part of this team in 2 years time, we need him.
Why not just trade for Malkin instead.

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02-02-2012, 01:10 PM
  #25
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Originally Posted by Figz14 View Post
The only problem I see moving forward is having our current 31 year old net minder locked up for another decade.

I can't see his play staying the same after the age of 35. In which we still have him for another 5 years. Scary thought.

Also I know he won't play out his entire contract but what's stopping him from retiring and not collecting his money even at 1-3 million or what ever the salary he will be earning in his final years.

Maybe we will get lucky and the cap rises to 80m he will.be a steal at 41.
This talk of Luongo reminds me of another player who was unable to lead his team to Cup and was the subject of rampant trade talk.

After missing the play-offs in 1989-90 it was claimed that Captain Steve Yzerman simply did not have the leadership skills to take the Wings to the next level. The Wings could not win with Steve Yzerman as captain - he was not a real leader, he did not have heart, he disappeared when the going got tough, etc.

After the Devils took them out in four straight the Wings were seriously looking into trading Yzerman. There were a whole host of Yzerman trade rumours. Yzerman had to endure trade rumors -- to Montreal in 1994 and to the Ottawa Senators in 1995.

"If it's time to go, it's time to go," he said at the time. "I just wish I would be treated with a little more respect."

One of the hot rumours du jour was Yzerman going to the Ottawa Senators for Alexei Yashin and draft picks. It has been reported that on February 26, 1996 the following trade was sent to the league offices - Steve Yzerman and Chris Osgood to Ottawa and Alexei Yashin, Damian Rhodes, Ottawa's first round pick in 1996 and 1997. Pierre Gauthier and Jimmy Devellano had agreed to the deal but later that morning, Devellano pulled the plug before the deal was finalized. The commonly held view is that Mike Ilitch stepped in and killed the deal as he had faith in in Yzerman. Ken Holland would subsequently replace Devellano.

Winning has way of papering over history.

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