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Stewart's next contract

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Old
02-03-2012, 05:33 PM
  #51
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Originally Posted by Iracundia View Post
I put the stats of what Quincey is...compare his numbers to any current Blue and he would be 3rd in scoring, 1 point behind Shatty and would be second in Hits. He would be the top scoring LD on the Blues. I never stated he was a top 2 D but he has better all round stats then any LD on the Blues.
He's making perfect sense. The Blues biggest need, by far, is scoring. There's no way Quincey is enough of an upgrade over Colaiacovo to motivate the Blues to move the player on their team with the highest career goals per game average for him, regardless of what sort of season he's currently having.

Thanks for calling out one of our more informed posters, though. It was good for a laugh.


Last edited by 2 Minute Minor: 02-03-2012 at 06:32 PM. Reason: qdp
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02-03-2012, 05:59 PM
  #52
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Ha! Let's just say we're not going to trade Chris Stewart for Kyle Quincey and if you posted that on the main trade board you'd get laughed at by neutral fans and you know it.

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02-04-2012, 02:27 PM
  #53
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Strick thinks that he's due for a 10% raise over his current salary ($3.25m), which would pay him slightly better than Steen.
3.575 million is a good deal IMO, we need this type of player for the playoffs.

Paul Martin is just not a good fit for Blues.

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02-08-2012, 02:41 PM
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$3.5 for a guy who is on pace for 16-16-32 in 78 games? What are you guys smoking? Not worth anything over $3m, in my opinion. And for that matter, I hope we move him given his struggles. Package him up and get someone in here who plays like he gives a damn.

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02-08-2012, 02:59 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by intangible View Post
$3.5 for a guy who is on pace for 16-16-32 in 78 games? What are you guys smoking? Not worth anything over $3m, in my opinion. And for that matter, I hope we move him given his struggles. Package him up and get someone in here who plays like he gives a damn.
One bad season isn't enough to condemn him imo

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02-08-2012, 03:02 PM
  #56
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He's going to get a 1 year deal, so a 10% bump is no big deal, but I think he will get something closer to his current salary.

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02-08-2012, 11:23 PM
  #57
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When assessing Stewart's production, we need to look no further than Backes production path.

Backes' career thus far:
GP G A PTS
2006-07 age 22 49 10 13 23
2007-08 age 23 72 13 18 31
2008-09 age 24 82 31 23 54
2009-10 age 25 79 17 31 48
2010-11 age 26 82 31 31 62
2011-12 age 27 52 16 22 38

Stewart's:
GP G A PTS
2008-09 age 21 53 11 8 19
2009-10 age 22 77 28 36 64
2010-11 age 23 36 13 17 30
2010-11 age 23 26 15 8 23
2010-11 Totals 62 28 25 53
2011-12 age 24 49 10 10 20

Backes started to really come into his own at the age of 24-3rd NHL season. Had a down year at the age of 25-4th NHL season and rebounded in a big way at the age of 26-5th NHL season and he has seemed to have put it all together and looks as though his production will stay around his output in 2010-2011.

Stewart had a his breakout year is his second NHL season at the age of 22. He had equal goal production at 23 -3rd season(point total went down because of 9 less assists) and is having a very down year at the age of 24-4th season(same as Backes). I do still believe that Stewart has 30 goal potential and I think that the Blues still feel that way too.

I wasn't on these boards at the time of Backes' down season when he scored 17 g after a season when he scored 31g, but if the present is any indication of the past, I'm sure there were a ton of "Trade Backes While He Still Has Value" threads back then too. What if the Blues had given up on him? What if they didn't let him fight through his early season struggles? Well they showed patience with his development and he has rewarded the management team for their patience. He is now our captain and one of our most consistent forwards. He learned from his struggles and mistakes and has become the player everyone thought he would become. It just took some time for him to fully mature.

Stewart came into the NHL at a younger age than Backes and started to produce at a high level at a younger age 22 vs. 24. Backes didn't sniff 30g until he was 24, Stewart came real close at the age of 22 & 23. He has shown the potential to produce like a 1st line winger over his last 2 seasons. This year he is just having a down year(really down) but he still shows those flashes of being a great player on most nights. He just doesn't do it on a consistent basis night in and night out. Most nights you can pick out 2-3 shifts were, you might say, "there's the Stewart we have been looking for" then he is flat out invisible for rest of the game. If he can figure out how to duplicate those 2-3 shifts, every shift, he will become that 30 g scorer that he can be, and more importantly, who he needs to be for this team to succeed.

Player development is a painfully slow task and it can be extremely frustrating to watch, but that is how teams become contenders year in and year out(Detroit) and not a one and done team(Tampa) who makes one deep playoff run and then goes back into rebuild mode. Fans have waited 6 years now for this team to develop, and right now they are darn close to becoming what they are capable of, they are just not quite there yet. If they were just ONE piece from being serious cup contenders, then I wouldnt mind trading Stewart or Berglund, but they are not ONE piece away from being that team. They still need a top 2 LHD to play 25 minutes a night w/ Petro. They could still use a legit 1st line center who can run a PP. They are still short of capable point producing injury call-ups in Peoria and the best is still on the way(Tank, Schwartz).

Also right now trading 2-3 important players for 1 player would actually hurt the Blues more than it would help them, with all of the current injuries. If you move Berglund and Stewart for lets say Getzlaf, what are the lines going to look like tomorrow? With Steen, Mac and Dags out.

Perron-Getzlaf-Oshie
???-Backes-???
Sobotka-Arnot-Langs
Porter-Nichol-Reaves

Yeah, thats a good first line, but after that its pretty lame.

The Blues this year with their full lineup without trading anyone:

Steen-Backes-Oshie
Perron-Berglund-Mac
Dags-Arnott-Stewart
Sobotka-Nichol-Reaves/Beener

If we keep this team the way it is, and IF we can ever ice our opening day lineup, next year this team should look like this.

Steen-Backes-Oshie
Perron-Berglund-Tarasenko (RW could be shuffled)
Schwartz-Mac-Stewart
Sobotka-Dags-Reaves/Beener/Porter

Call-ups-Porter, Grachev
That lineup looks much more dangerous, really that looks like a Stanley Cup team to me! That lineup has serious depth with big time skill on every line. And WHEN someone goes down, there wont be that gigantic dip in the quality of the player filling in. That's how you win cups, its roster depth, not one really good line.

Ask Anaheim, how are they doing?

I know everyone(including me) is unhappy with Stewart's point totals and his effort on most nights. But he has shown in the past that he can produce at a very high level, and it is in the Blues best interest to let him play through his struggles and mature into the player management believes he will become. Give it time, this team is almost there, and next year we may have that parade down Market street, stay on course Army, I for one can wait!

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02-08-2012, 11:42 PM
  #58
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Backes does more in one period than Stewart does all game. Backes exerts himself and hits everybody. You can't put stats on Backes' game.

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02-08-2012, 11:45 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Mike Liut View Post
Backes does more in one period than Stewart does all game. Backes exerts himself and hits everybody. You can't put stats on Backes' game.
Backes never regressed as much as Stewart is this season as well. Last season Stewart missed a big chunk of the season, so for an 82 game pace, his stats would be even more impressive, making this season look even worse.

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02-08-2012, 11:55 PM
  #60
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Bottom line, Stewart has sucked this year. He has disappeared to the extent I don't even notice when he's on the ice.

He doesn't pass what I am going to call "The Announcer Test." That last game - how many times did you hear the announcers say "Stewart" - none that I can remember (though I'm sure they of course did). However, you hear Backes all the time, you hear Oshie all the time, even if they come up point-less.

I first thought of this when watching the Wild and, I swear, every 2 seconds you heard the announcers say "Clutterbuck" - the guy is everywhere, mixing it up, making things happen.

I hardly ever hear Stewart's name, he completely disappears, he doesn't pass the eye test, the stat test or the announcer test. Him asking for over $3M? - sorta laughable.

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02-09-2012, 12:14 AM
  #61
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I really think Stewart gets trade at the deadline. He has been demoted to the 3rd line a few times already. I don't think Hitch is a fan of Stewart's. Hitch has a system and if you aren't playing it, you aren't needed. Berglund plays the part much better, so I doubt he gets traded like some people speculate

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02-09-2012, 01:01 AM
  #62
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If we trade him, I hope we get someone comparable back, because I feel like people forget how young Stewart is, he has a good chance to be a 30-40 goal scorer for the next ten years, and I'd like it to be on this team.

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02-09-2012, 01:46 AM
  #63
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I do not agree that he has shown flashes of being a great player on most nights. That's pure fiction that makes an argument sound better. It's simply not happening.

Also it's easy to list players who have improved. There's a big logical fallacy in citing one player who has improved to argue another player will improve. It's so big it shouldn't have to be pointed out. If all players improved then it's always a mistake to trade young players who've shown something promising.

Stewart could turn it around, then again he might not. But it has nothing to do with David Backes' development if he does or doesn't.

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02-09-2012, 02:31 AM
  #64
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Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
Also it's easy to list players who have improved. There's a big logical fallacy in citing one player who has improved to argue another player will improve. It's so big it shouldn't have to be pointed out. If all players improved then it's always a mistake to trade young players who've shown something promising.

Stewart could turn it around, then again he might not. But it has nothing to do with David Backes' development if he does or doesn't.
This is very true, and a good point to raise. Case studies "prove" nothing.

We would be remiss, however, if we fail to acknowledge that players rarely peak at 23 years old. In the same vein, it's also fairly common for players to experience peaks and valleys in their development through their low to mid 20s. Any analysis that is drawing the conclusion that Stewart is suddenly not the player he had been for the first 200 or so games of his career based on these last 50 is taking a fairly precarious position based on historical trends.

My personal take on Stewart is that he'll never be a "power forward" in the commonly accepted sense of the phrase, and expecting that from him will only lead to disappointment. He'll always be a big body that plays a "smaller man's game." With that said, he still has the skill set and instincts to be a very productive scorer in this league. Get him to focus on finding soft spots in the defensive coverage instead of simply standing directly in front of the net, and get him to shoot more often when he's in a prime scoring position, and my belief is that he'll be a very solid asset to any offense. The more the Blues try and force him to be something he's not, the worse he's going to play. Just my 2 cents.

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02-09-2012, 04:26 AM
  #65
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It's true that players rarely peak that young, absolutely. And I understand the desire behind making the argument that someone will improve. We want the guy to improve, there are plenty of examples laying around where guys improved, hence the argument. It's very seductive to want to make that case.

With Stewart I think we have to be pretty agnostic about what his chances to do that are, because there exists a body of work with him in each direction.

It's funny (but not in a good way) to think that two years ago Berglund's awful production combined with Stewart just killing us when we played Colorado literally were two huge factors in keeping the team from making the playoffs, finishing 9th with 90 to Colorado's 8th with 95. I really just hope those two players not figuring out what kind of players they're going to be doesn't hurt the team's chances for much longer.

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02-09-2012, 05:12 AM
  #66
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I really just hope those two players not figuring out what kind of players they're going to be doesn't hurt the team's chances for much longer.
I like the way you phrased that..."figuring out what kind of players they're going to be." It's definitely a process that they're in the middle of, although I think their coaching has at least as much influence over it as they do.

For Berglund, I'm generally encouraged by the changes he's making in how he plays the game even though the results have been slow to follow.

For Stewart, I'm trending in the opposite direction. I remember him having lots of success when he first joined us (and on the Avs) off the rush, and by finding soft spots in coverage 8 to 12 feet from the net (but off to the side of the goalie) where he could get a quick shot off while facing the net. I think the Blues are trying to turn him into another Tkachuk, where he's basically playing a physical post-up game right in front of the goalie (with his back to the goal) setting screens, and looking for tips. He definitely does not look comfortable in that role, and I'm worried that they're going to keep forcing it on him until they give up and move him.

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02-09-2012, 08:31 AM
  #67
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For Stewart, I'm trending in the opposite direction. I remember him having lots of success when he first joined us (and on the Avs) off the rush, and by finding soft spots in coverage 8 to 12 feet from the net (but off to the side of the goalie) where he could get a quick shot off while facing the net. I think the Blues are trying to turn him into another Tkachuk, where he's basically playing a physical post-up game right in front of the goalie (with his back to the goal) setting screens, and looking for tips. He definitely does not look comfortable in that role, and I'm worried that they're going to keep forcing it on him until they give up and move him.
Good point. He just doesn't fit our style of play and you can't forced to play something that you don't want to play or that you won't be successful playing. Maybe the scouting staff should've taken this into consideration last season or maybe the coaching staff should tweak the offensive system. It is a whole lot easier to move one player that doesn't fit the system, than it is to change or tweak a system though.

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02-11-2012, 09:41 AM
  #68
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The best thing Stewart's done is have this performance during his contract year. Imagine if last offseason had been his contract year and this had happened. Rough season all around for the Stewart family.

Maybe he can get motivated with the game against the Avs tonight.

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02-11-2012, 10:19 AM
  #69
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he needs a ****ing gordie howe trick every single game if he expects a raise.

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02-11-2012, 12:37 PM
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How long do you make his next contract for? Has he "established himself" like Armstrong likes to talk about?

I think he may be getting a 1 or 2 year deal at the most....so he'll get another chance to have a contract year performance (do-over).

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02-11-2012, 12:42 PM
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He's having a terrible season, but I think it's extremely shortsighted to give up and deal him already. There's tons of good players who have gone through bad seasons.

I think the two worst things a GM can do is:

a) make shortsighted, poorly thought out trades
b) sit on their hands while everything around them turns to ****

Trades like A always come back to bite you in the ass, and B situations leave you looking like Columbus.

So far, in my opinion, Armstrong and JD haven't done either of these things, which has made me extremely happy.

Am I disappointed in Stewart now? Yeah, but I think the worst thing you can do is jump the gun and set him sailing out of town after not even playing his first full season with us, especially considering what we gave away to get him.

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02-11-2012, 01:42 PM
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How long do you make his next contract for? Has he "established himself" like Armstrong likes to talk about?

I think he may be getting a 1 or 2 year deal at the most....so he'll get another chance to have a contract year performance (do-over).
I bet he gets a contract like Oshie got last offseason.

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02-12-2012, 10:02 AM
  #73
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When the Blue traded for Chris Stewart I was so happy. He had killed the Blues in the past two seasons and seemed to be the kind of guy who gave max effort each and every night. Cue the trade and he comes over guns blazing making a name for himself here in St. Louis. Fast forward to this season and it has been nothing short of disaster for Stewart. The effort on a night to night basis has been anything but consistant and most nights his name is never even mentioned on the air or by fans. He has slipped into some crack on the ice and stayed there. Yes, lately he has put up a few more numbers and maybe gotten a little bit more consistent with effort. Chris has given up the puck countless times this season in terrible places on the ice bc of lack of effort and cleanliness of his passing. The guy is 225-235 lbs and looses dang near every puck battle imaginable this year. I really am so confused as to how he can be playing so poorly. Chris Stewart has some of the best talent potential on the entire team and yet he refuses to use it. I am not saying I want the Blues to ship Chris out of town any time soon but unless he can proove to ARMY he deserves to be here and deserves the type of contract that he "could be" worth hes not going to get the deal his heart desires and he really doenst deserve it. I am not sure what its going to take but I really would like to see the Chris GD Stewart that I enjoyed so much after the trade last season. Cmon Chris.. Open your damn eyes and get to playing the physical in your face in front of the net I got the hands of Jesus type hockey I know you can play!
Sincerly,
A confused Chris GD Stewart Fan

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02-21-2012, 03:37 AM
  #74
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For the sake of discussion, what happens if the Blues want to offer him a one-year contract and Stewart wants to wait a little before signing it? And then some idiotic team looks at July 1 free agency and says you know what, let's offer sheet Chris Stewart to a 3-4yr, 4.5M per deal. The rationale being that he's still very skilled, they think he's likely to rebound, they think he's out of step with the system Hitchcock employs, and that the Blues won't want to match an offer like that. Maybe a team like Montreal would gamble, for example (he performed well against them and that often makes an impression).

As a Blues fan I would hate the Blues matching that deal. The compensation would be a 2013 1st + 2013 3d.

If the Blues have signed Tarasenko (which they'd know by then) I think they'd have to consider taking the picks. Strongly consider taking the 1st + 3d picks.

The 1st, 2d, 3d would both be automatic parting ways and at the same time it's extremely unlikely any team is crazy enough to pay him that much.

These are the only two relevant windows to the discussion, and numbers are for last summer (they go up a little bit each year as they scale gradually with the cap):

$3,134,088 — $4,701,131: First and third-round pick
$4,701,131 — $6,268,175: First, second and third-round pick

I don't know what my breaking point would be. There are definitely some obnoxious offers that could be made where the Blues wind up matching something they deem too high.

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02-21-2012, 03:45 AM
  #75
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For the sake of discussion, what happens if the Blues want to offer him a one-year contract and Stewart wants to wait a little before signing it? And then some idiotic team looks at July 1 free agency and says you know what, let's offer sheet Chris Stewart to a 3-4yr, 4.5M per deal. The rationale being that he's still very skilled, they think he's likely to rebound, they think he's out of step with the system Hitchcock employs, and that the Blues won't want to match an offer like that. Maybe a team like Montreal would gamble, for example (he performed well against them and that often makes an impression).

As a Blues fan I would hate the Blues matching that deal. The compensation would be a 2013 1st + 2013 3d.

If the Blues have signed Tarasenko (which they'd know by then) I think they'd have to consider taking the picks. Strongly consider taking the 1st + 3d picks.

The 1st, 2d, 3d would both be automatic parting ways and at the same time it's extremely unlikely any team is crazy enough to pay him that much.

These are the only two relevant windows to the discussion, and numbers are for last summer (they go up a little bit each year as they scale gradually with the cap):

$3,134,088 — $4,701,131: First and third-round pick
$4,701,131 — $6,268,175: First, second and third-round pick

I don't know what my breaking point would be. There are definitely some obnoxious offers that could be made where the Blues wind up matching something they deem too high.
If he has enough interest/value around the league to justify an offer sheet like that and I wanted him gone, I would just match it and trade him for a less speculative return.

As for what the Blues would do, I have absolutely no idea on this one. Tough scenario, and it probably would depend largely on how Stewart performs down the stretch and in the playoffs (with the playoffs ultimately being the more important factor between the two). It seems unlikely that the Blues would pull a match-and-trade given the potential financial implications if they can't find a good deal. Who knows, though...maybe they have that sort of wriggle-room in the budget for a year to let things sort themselves out.

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