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Old
02-02-2012, 04:50 AM
  #1
Play4Miracles*
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I can already feel the franchise center slipping away...

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02-02-2012, 09:04 AM
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Yes, this team can actually screw up their chances at a top flight center prospect.

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02-02-2012, 09:31 AM
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As long as they don't go into buy-mode I wouldn't really mind a run. It's not where you draft, it's who.

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02-02-2012, 09:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
As long as they don't go into buy-mode I wouldn't really mind a run. It's not where you draft, it's who.
I'm not trying to be snarky here, I'm actually legitimately interested. How many true, legitimate first line centers get drafted "late-ish" in the draft?

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02-02-2012, 09:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
As long as they don't go into buy-mode I wouldn't really mind a run. It's not where you draft, it's who.


2004 :
#1 Ovechkin
#2 Malkin
#13 Stafford

2005
#1 Crosby
#2 Ryan
#13 Zagrapan

2006
#1 Johnson
#2 Staal
#3 Toews
#4 Backstrom
#5 Kessel
#13 Tlusty

2007
#1 Kane
#2 JVR
#13 Eller

2008
#1 Stamkos
#2 Doughty
#13 Teubert

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02-02-2012, 10:19 AM
  #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barnell View Post
I'm not trying to be snarky here, I'm actually legitimately interested. How many true, legitimate first line centers get drafted "late-ish" in the draft?
1C/1C Potential players (imo) available in the 10-20 range per draft year post lockout:

2005: Kopitar, Zagrapan , Hanzal
2006: Little :S (Giroux taken at 22)
2007: (Couture at 9), slim pickings
2008: Hodgson, Colborne (Boychuk is there but more suited to 2C role), (Eberle at 22)
2009: Bunch of eh prospects, honestly. Let's say one makes it for argument.
2010: (Granlund at 9), Tarasenko, Bjugstad
2011: McNeill maybe?

YMMV on these guys. But for the sake of argument again let's assume the Sabres draft Hanzal in place of Zags, Kuznetsov instead of Pysyk, and Berglund instead of Persson. Hindsight is 20/20 of course but these were all viable choices at the time.

Hypothetical centers today:

X - Roy - X
X - Berglund - X
X - Hanzal - X
X - Goose - X

With Adam, Kuznetsov, and Cat coming up. That's a good enough set of centers to be a contending team, IMO. Look at the Bruins.

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02-02-2012, 10:25 AM
  #7
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post


2004 :
#1 Ovechkin
#2 Malkin
#13 Stafford
#20 Zajac

2005
#1 Crosby
#2 Ryan
#13 Zagrapan
#17 Hanzal
#24 Oshie


2006
#1 Johnson
#2 Staal
#3 Toews
#4 Backstrom
#5 Kessel
#12 Little
#13 Tlusty
#23 Giroux

2007
#1 Kane
#2 JVR
#13 Eller
Sure, bad year

2008
#1 Stamkos
#2 Doughty
#13 Teubert
#14 Boychuk
#16 Colborne
#22 Eberle
Responses bolded. One could argue they wouldn't have gone fishing for a center drafted in the low 20's if they were in the mid teens, but some are closer than others.

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02-02-2012, 10:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
1C/1C Potential players (imo) available in the 10-20 range per draft year post lockout:

2005: Kopitar, Zagrapan , Hanzal
2006: Little :S (Giroux taken at 22)
2007: (Couture at 9), slim pickings
2008: Hodgson, Colborne (Boychuk is there but more suited to 2C role), (Eberle at 22)
2009: Bunch of eh prospects, honestly. Let's say one makes it for argument.
2010: (Granlund at 9), Tarasenko, Bjugstad
2011: McNeill maybe?

YMMV on these guys. But for the sake of argument again let's assume the Sabres draft Hanzal in place of Zags, Kuznetsov instead of Pysyk, and Berglund instead of Persson. Hindsight is 20/20 of course but these were all viable choices at the time.

Hypothetical centers today:

X - Roy - X
X - Berglund - X
X - Hanzal - X
X - Goose - X

With Adam, Kuznetsov, and Cat coming up. That's a good enough set of centers to be a contending team, IMO. Look at the Bruins.
no it's not...

the point remains, that after the top tier picks, the draft is mostly a crapshoot. 20+ GMs passed on Giroux, if the draft were reheld today, he'd go #1 or #2.

"Where you draft" matters much more in the 1st round... drafting in the top tier gives you a very high chance of landing a stud, drafting outside of that area, gives you a very LOW chance of landing a stud in the first round...

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02-02-2012, 10:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
Responses bolded. One could argue they wouldn't have gone fishing for a center drafted in the low 20's if they were in the mid teens, but some are closer than others.
the point is, year after year after year a stud is ALWAYS landed in the top 3-5, lately, 2 or 3 studs in the top 5. The rest of the 1st round is blind darts at a dart board.

The same GM who "stole" Giroux late in the first round, also drafted Kevin Marshall over PK Subban.

The GM who stole Anze Kopitar in the mid 1st, also wanted Teubert over Tyler Myers.

The closest to a sure thing, is at the very top of the draft.

Pointing out the 2-3 gems later in the 1st round is nice... but it's 2-3 out of 20-25 guys... there are 2-3 gems in the 1-5 top picks every year.

chance of finding a stud in the top 5: 60%
chance of finding a stud in the next 25 : 8%-12%

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02-02-2012, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
no it's not...
Brilliant.

Quote:
the point remains, that after the top tier picks, the draft is mostly a crapshoot. 20+ GMs passed on Giroux, if the draft were reheld today, he'd go #1 or #2.
Sure, it's a crapshoot. But if you shoot right with as much of an educated guess as you can make, a lottery pick isn't necessary.

Quote:
"Where you draft" matters much more in the 1st round... drafting in the top tier gives you a very high chance of landing a stud, drafting outside of that area, gives you a very LOW chance of landing a stud in the first round...
Higher chance, sure. But that doesn't mean it's the only way to find one. Good drafting doesn't require a bad team.


e: I'm not calling them geniuses. I'm saying the players are there and attainable. Look at Washington's hits in the late first (Green, Kuz, Carlson, Johansson )

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02-02-2012, 10:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
no it's not...

the point remains, that after the top tier picks, the draft is mostly a crapshoot. 20+ GMs passed on Giroux, if the draft were reheld today, he'd go #1 or #2.

"Where you draft" matters much more in the 1st round... drafting in the top tier gives you a very high chance of landing a stud, drafting outside of that area, gives you a very LOW chance of landing a stud in the first round...
I'd also add that playoff teams have the luxury of taking a risk with their picks, so they could take a marginal skater OR an undersized/injured player OR even a Euro/Russian. Lesser teams absolutely need their picks to pan out, so they tend to look for the more NHL-ready prospect.

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02-02-2012, 11:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Woodhouse View Post
I'd also add that playoff teams have the luxury of taking a risk with their picks, so they could take a marginal skater OR an undersized/injured player OR even a Euro/Russian. Lesser teams absolutely need their picks to pan out, so they tend to look for the more NHL-ready prospect.
That's fair, but this franchise has been a playoff team for 2/3 of their seasons after the lockout. Who are their risk picks? Myers and Armia?

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02-02-2012, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
Brilliant.
thanks... enjoy your, Roy, Berglund, Hanzal, Goose lineups... go see if the Bruins would rather have that gnarly group...

Bergeron, Seguin, Krejci, Peverly, Kelly


Quote:
Sure, it's a crapshoot. But if you shoot right with as much of an educated guess as you can make, a lottery pick isn't necessary.
im ready for examples of teams that are built by "regularly" shooting right, in the mid to late 1st rounds... do you know what the word crapshoot even means?

Quote:
Higher chance, sure. But that doesn't mean it's the only way to find one. Good drafting doesn't require a bad team.
who said it's the only way?

when the franchise is a mess, and clearly lacking a 1st line center... i'll take the path to "higher" chance, over your crapshoot method, especially when the playoffs are a pipe dream.


Quote:
e: I'm not calling them geniuses. I'm saying the players are there and attainable. Look at Washington's hits in the late first (Green, Kuz, Carlson, Johansson )
those players are nice... they aren't the foundational pieces... the Sabres have "hit" on plenty of late 1sts and 2nds.... Roy, Pominville, Weber, Ennis, Enroth, Adam, etc....

there's a difference between drafting well, and landing the franchise players lacking on this roster.

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02-02-2012, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
thanks... enjoy your, Roy, Berglund, Hanzal, Goose lineups... go see if the Bruins would rather have that gnarly group...

Bergeron, Seguin, Krejci, Peverly, Kelly
Did I say it was better? It is comparable. A 70 point guy, a 50 point guy, a defensively excellent 30-40 point guy, and a faceoff specialist. I was referring to last year's squad, which didn't even need Seguin for most of the playoffs.




Quote:
im ready for examples of teams that are built by "regularly" shooting right, in the mid to late 1st rounds... do you know what the word crapshoot even means?
That's not my argument and you know it.

Quote:
who said it's the only way?
You posted a laugh emoticon at my assertion that it's more about who a team drafts than where. What did you mean that to convey if not a complete rejection ?

Quote:
when the franchise is a mess, and clearly lacking a 1st line center... i'll take the path to "higher" chance, over your crapshoot method, especially when the playoffs are a pipe dream.
I think this is the issue here. I don't think the franchise is a mess. I think it's a division-contender having an awful year in a perfect storm of down years, injuries, and coaching issues. I don't think the franchise needs a savior in the form of a top-10 center in the league.



those players are nice... they aren't the foundational pieces... the Sabres have "hit" on plenty of late 1sts and 2nds.... Roy, Pominville, Weber, Ennis, Enroth, Adam, etc....

there's a difference between drafting well, and landing the franchise players lacking on this roster.[/QUOTE]

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02-02-2012, 11:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
That's fair, but this franchise has been a playoff team for 2/3 of their seasons after the lockout. Who are their risk picks? Myers and Armia?
Myers and Ennis were both considered risky picks in their draft year -- tall and gangly and short and super-light.

Question -- how did this become a draft-team-building thread? Just wondering....

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02-02-2012, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
Did I say it was better? It is comparable. A 70 point guy, a 50 point guy, a defensively excellent 30-40 point guy, and a faceoff specialist. I was referring to last year's squad, which didn't even need Seguin for most of the playoffs.

Seguin, Bergeron, and Krejci are all going to outscore Roy and Berglund....

Boston has 3 70 pt centers IMO

Quote:
You posted a laugh emoticon at my assertion that it's more about who a team drafts than where. What did you mean that to convey if not a complete rejection ?
1 or 2 examples a year is an outlier, not proof of anything.

Your position, whether you realize it or not, is "it's more about getting lucky in the draft, then where you draft".

That's what Im outright laughing at...


Quote:
I think this is the issue here. I don't think the franchise is a mess. I think it's a division-contender having an awful year in a perfect storm of down years, injuries, and coaching issues. I don't think the franchise needs a savior in the form of a top-10 center in the league.
you're delusional then...

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02-02-2012, 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
Seguin, Bergeron, and Krejci are all going to outscore Roy and Berglund....

Boston has 3 70 pt centers IMO
They'll all outscore Crosby too. Like I was saying, I was referencing last year's team.


Quote:
1 or 2 examples a year is an outlier, not proof of anything.
2 examples in a range of 10 are outliers? ok.

Quote:
Your position, whether you realize it or not, is "it's more about getting lucky in the draft, then where you draft".
There's no such thing as luck. It's not exactly "moneypuck" but it's sure as hell not a dartboard either.



Quote:
you're delusional then...
Over the past 4 years they've averaged 94 points per year with the highest being 100 and lowest 90. Excuse me for seeing this extreme dropoff as unrepresentative of the health of the franchise and instead reflective of injuries and Ruff.

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02-02-2012, 11:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
As long as they don't go into buy-mode I wouldn't really mind a run. It's not where you draft, it's who.
Darcy should use that line on the phone when he tries to ply that #1 pick from Columbus.

I think Pittsburgh and Chicago can polish their Stanley Cups and sleep well at night without worrying that they missed out on that wisdom. Name me a better young kid out there than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, John Tavares and Steven Stamkos who came out of the later picks. I'll give you credit for exactly two older players: Datsyuk and Zetterbeg, and then I'll raise you the Sedins, Tyler Seguin, Alex Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, Kane, Toews, Spezza, Kessel, Vanek, just off the top of my head, who were all top 5 picks.

I'm gonna compare your logic to saying, "it's not who's on your team, it's how many games they win." Yes, that's true - but one is highly statistically determinative of the other. It is where you draft.

I'm gonna throw in a little statistic I just looked up to sink it in a little more: 10 of the league's current top 12 scorers were picked with the 7th pick or higher. It matters a lot.

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02-02-2012, 11:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
They'll all outscore Crosby too. Like I was saying, I was referencing last year's team.

2 examples in a range of 10 are outliers? ok.

There's no such thing as luck. It's not exactly "moneypuck" but it's sure as hell not a dartboard either.
ok, cool....let's play a game, i'll draft the player I deem best in each draft over the last 10 years, and you get to take a player that went in the 12-30 range... ready, set, go...


Quote:
Over the past 4 years they've averaged 94 points per year with the highest being 100 and lowest 90. Excuse me for seeing this extreme dropoff as unrepresentative of the health of the franchise and instead reflective of injuries and Ruff.
good point...

over the last 4 years, they've missed the playoffs twice... and lost in the 1st round twice...

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02-02-2012, 11:55 AM
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I like the idea of this game where one of us picks the best player out of the whole draft and the other picks the best player out of the 12-30 range.

I'll raise the stakes, though. I get to pick the best players from each draft over the last ten years, limited to top ten picks, and you get to pick from the whole rest of the damned draft. If my team beats yours, I think you kinda have to concede the point. I have only 100 guys to pick from, you have, what? 1500-2000?

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02-02-2012, 11:57 AM
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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
Darcy should use that line on the phone when he tries to ply that #1 pick from Columbus.

I think Pittsburgh and Chicago can polish their Stanley Cups and sleep well at night without worrying that they missed out on that wisdom. Name me a better young kid out there than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, John Tavares and Steven Stamkos who came out of the later picks. I'll give you credit for exactly two older players: Datsyuk and Zetterbeg, and then I'll raise you the Sedins, Tyler Seguin, Alex Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, Kane, Toews, Spezza, Kessel, Vanek, just off the top of my head, who were all top 5 picks.

I'm gonna compare your logic to saying, "it's not who's on your team, it's how many games they win." Yes, that's true - but one is highly statistically determinative of the other. It is where you draft.

I'm gonna throw in a little statistic I just looked up to sink it in a little more: 10 of the league's current top 12 scorers were picked with the 7th pick or higher. It matters a lot.
seconded... i mean the phrase alone is just silly to begin with... "it's not where, it's who".... yea, it's who.... like Crosby, Kane, Toews, Malkin, RNH, Stammer, Tavares, Nash, etc.... the who is what matters... and where did they all go? at the very very top

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02-02-2012, 12:05 PM
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ok, cool....let's play a game, i'll draft the player I deem best in each draft over the last 10 years, and you get to take a player that went in the 12-30 range... ready, set, go...
What happens when they're one and the same ?



Quote:
good point...

over the last 4 years, they've missed the playoffs twice... and lost in the 1st round twice...
They lost to a team that won the cup the next year, and a team that was in the finals the year before. There's no forest fire here. They need an adrenaline shot, not heart surgery.

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02-02-2012, 12:29 PM
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I think Pittsburgh and Chicago can polish their Stanley Cups and sleep well at night without worrying that they missed out on that wisdom. Name me a better young kid out there than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, John Tavares and Steven Stamkos who came out of the later picks. I'll give you credit for exactly two older players: Datsyuk and Zetterbeg, and then I'll raise you the Sedins, Tyler Seguin, Alex Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, Kane, Toews, Spezza, Kessel, Vanek, just off the top of my head, who were all top 5 picks.
Starting with the 03 draft:

Parise, Getzlaf, Kesler, Richards, Perry, Burns, Carter, Brown, Eriksson, Bergeron, Weber, Green, Kopitar, Marc Staal, Rask, Oshie, Neal, Stastny, Grabner, Giroux, Lucic, Pacioretty, Myers, Karlsson, Eberle, MDZ, Fowler were all out of the top 10 but inside the top 50. That crew is nothing to sneeze at.


And I'm sure that Pittsburgh and Chicago love their cups just as much as Boston, Detroit, or Anaheim did, none of whom relied on top-5 players drafted in their system to win their cups (While Seguin did contribute he was benched for more games than he played in the playoffs).


Quote:
I'm gonna throw in a little statistic I just looked up to sink it in a little more: 10 of the league's current top 12 scorers were picked with the 7th pick or higher. It matters a lot.
Out of those top 12 (I wonder why you stopped there ) just over half play for teams solidly in the playoffs, so the correlation is questionable. Add to that the fact that Lupul and Kessel don't play for the team that drafted them.
Out of the top 20 scorers only one more is from the top-10 of their draft year, and that's Teemu at 10 in '88. Then there's three more if you expand to the top 30 scorers, meaning at that point there are more players taken outside the top 10 than within.

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02-02-2012, 12:50 PM
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Alright, anybody who wants to take the logic that "it's not where you draft, but who" can try to beat me at this: the game is that I get to pick the best current players who were taken with a top ten pick.

YOU get to pick the best current players who were not taken with a top ten pick, so from anywhere else in the draft.

If my team could beat yours, since I have only a hundred or so to pick from, and you have thousands, you kind of have to concede that it matters a whole hell of a lot where you draft. You should beat me by miles, actually, if it doesn't matter where you draft, based on having ~21 times more players to pick from.


My Team:

Sedin - Sedin - Kane
Ovechkin - Crosby - Stamkos
Malkin - Toews - Kessel
Vanek/Nash - Eric Staal/Thornton/Spezza - Gaborik

And just for kicks, these are the forwards I would put in Rochester: Marleau, Lecavalier, Heatley, Gaborik, Hartnell, Jagr, Kovalchuk, Spezza, Bobby Ryan, Backstrom, Couture, Tavares, Duchene, Taylor Hall, Seguin, Skinner


Pronger - Phaneuf
Jack Johnson - Drew Doughty
Ryan Whitney - Suter

Also just for kicks, some D for Rochester: Buowmeester, Bogosian, Braydon Coburn, Pitkanen, Schenn


Price
Fleury
Luongo

At the end of doing that, I'll concede the defensemen and goalies are a bit more of a crapshoot in the draft (and there are not many of them chosen in the top ten), but for forwards, if you're not picking in the top ten, **** you.

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02-02-2012, 01:03 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
Starting with the 03 draft:

Parise, Getzlaf, Kesler, Richards, Perry, Burns, Carter, Brown, Eriksson, Bergeron, Weber, Green, Kopitar, Marc Staal, Rask, Oshie, Neal, Stastny, Grabner, Giroux, Lucic, Pacioretty, Myers, Karlsson, Eberle, MDZ, Fowler were all out of the top 10 but inside the top 50. That crew is nothing to sneeze at.


And I'm sure that Pittsburgh and Chicago love their cups just as much as Boston, Detroit, or Anaheim did, none of whom relied on top-5 players drafted in their system to win their cups (While Seguin did contribute he was benched for more games than he played in the playoffs).



Out of those top 12 (I wonder why you stopped there ) just over half play for teams solidly in the playoffs, so the correlation is questionable. Add to that the fact that Lupul and Kessel don't play for the team that drafted them.
Out of the top 20 scorers only one more is from the top-10 of their draft year, and that's Teemu at 10 in '88. Then there's three more if you expand to the top 30 scorers, meaning at that point there are more players taken outside the top 10 than within.
the point is the ability to land a super star is MUCH MUCH MUCH higher in the top of the draft...

thick

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