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Old
02-16-2012, 01:52 PM
  #1
FiveForDrawingBlood
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Goal Differential

Looking at standings today Habs are 12th in the conference. But our Goal Diff is only -3?

This is kind of puzzling when looking at teams close to us. Tampa is -34, Buffalo -25, Islanders -26, Winnipeg -24. Even Ottawa sitting in 7th spot has a worse goal diff than us at -4. Are we a lot better than our record indictates? Could our bad season be overblown?

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02-16-2012, 02:04 PM
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Our bad season is overblown. We don't need a rebuild, we need a working PP.

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02-16-2012, 02:05 PM
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Em Ancien
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Good goaltending + lack of reliable scoring.

Those teams give up a lot of goals, but when their goalie plays well, they win.

We sometimes get a flood of goals, but in tight games, we have no one scoring that one goal to put it away or bring us back into it.

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02-16-2012, 02:05 PM
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HardcoreHab
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Powerplay impotence, shootouts and blown leads. They are the main reasons in a nutshell. I could throw in injuries too, but everyone has injuries I guess.

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02-16-2012, 02:11 PM
  #5
llamateizer
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goal difference is a good indication about the team
the habs season is weird

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02-16-2012, 02:11 PM
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habs03
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Kremelin Wall View Post
Our bad season is overblown. We don't need a rebuild, we need a working PP.
Total agree

I think we need to retool this off-season.

I think come next September a lot of excitement is going to be around this organisation, our core is mainly young and even with the Bulldogs, a lot of young talent coming in.

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Old
02-16-2012, 02:12 PM
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MathMan
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Too many one-goal losses. When the game is decided by two goals or more, not counting empty-netters, the Habs are 12-11 -- which doesn't sound like much, but it is good for 5th in the East. This means that in games decided by a goal (again not counting empty-netters), the Habs are 11-25.

A narrative type will tell you that the Habs in general and Price in particular just aren't clutch. A statistical type will tell you that a team's record in one-goal games has very little predictive value from year to year.

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02-16-2012, 02:13 PM
  #8
HH
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Goal differential is +3 actually.

They count SO W/L in the total but the real GD is +3.

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02-16-2012, 02:18 PM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
A statistical type will tell you that a team's record in one-goal games has very little predictive value from year to year.
You can also add: they had the 5th best winning percentage in the league last year in 1 goal games.

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Old
02-16-2012, 02:20 PM
  #10
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STAT:

The team has led at some point in 72% of the games but only won 39% of them.

Disgusting stat.

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02-16-2012, 02:35 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HarryHabs View Post
STAT:

The team has led at some point in 72% of the games but only won 39% of them.

Disgusting stat.
Top 4 D in ES/TOI G in order are Gorges, PK, Emelin, Diaz. That's the team's top 4, young and inexperienced in the NHL with Gorges as the #1. Then you've got Kaberle, Campoli, and Gill who the coaches deem are not fit to play more at ES than 2 guys who are NHL rookies. Blown leads shouldn't be a surprise.

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02-16-2012, 02:46 PM
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Lafleurs Guy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Too many one-goal losses. When the game is decided by two goals or more, not counting empty-netters, the Habs are 12-11 -- which doesn't sound like much, but it is good for 5th in the East. This means that in games decided by a goal (again not counting empty-netters), the Habs are 11-25.

A narrative type will tell you that the Habs in general and Price in particular just aren't clutch. A statistical type will tell you that a team's record in one-goal games has very little predictive value from year to year.
Doesn't this just reinforce the fact that we're a bubble club? Sure we're a bubble club that's having a bad year but we're still a bubble club.
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Originally Posted by HardcoreHab View Post
Powerplay impotence, shootouts and blown leads. They are the main reasons in a nutshell. I could throw in injuries too, but everyone has injuries I guess.
How about... not enough great players? Does that factor in here too?

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Old
02-16-2012, 02:49 PM
  #13
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Doesn't this just reinforce the fact that we're a bubble club? Sure we're a bubble club that's having a bad year but we're still a bubble club.

How about... not enough great players? Does that factor in here too?
Yup. The defense is questionable and aside from one forward line....our forwards are questionable too.

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02-16-2012, 03:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Too many one-goal losses. When the game is decided by two goals or more, not counting empty-netters, the Habs are 12-11 -- which doesn't sound like much, but it is good for 5th in the East. This means that in games decided by a goal (again not counting empty-netters), the Habs are 11-25.

A narrative type will tell you that the Habs in general and Price in particular just aren't clutch. A statistical type will tell you that a team's record in one-goal games has very little predictive value from year to year.
The number of blown leads infers, quite heavily, that neither Price nor the team has been clutch. There is relevance to the blown leads and clutch. I wouldn't doubt that year-to-year one goal won/lost is fairly random (see Tampa/Habs this year and last).

Every year there seems to be one or two team(s) which has (have) good records in spite of relatively poor goals differentials. This year, Florida with 65 points in 56 games despite having a -15 (incl. SO) differential.

Last year, both Tampa (103 points/+7 incl. SO) and, surprise, surprise the Canadiens with 96 points and a +7 (incl SO) were the high end flukes.

In 2009-10, Ottawa managed 94 points despite a -13 differential.

Even if the Habs had a better PP-for the sake of argument say they had scored 10 more goals this year and the SO record had been at .500 (4 more points), the wouldn't be among the elite in differential this season, but they'd easily be a playoff team.

For the Habs, at least in terms of goals differential/points earned, last year's team outperformed about the same as this year's team has underperformed.


Last edited by Cyclones Rock: 02-16-2012 at 03:07 PM.
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Old
02-16-2012, 03:25 PM
  #15
MathMan
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Doesn't this just reinforce the fact that we're a bubble club? Sure we're a bubble club that's having a bad year but we're still a bubble club.
Depends. Goal differential is a decent yardstick of team strength, but like most goal metrics, it's still quite coarse. Keep in mind that Montreal outscored their opponents despite injuries, PP problems, and so on. The goal-differential may be underestimating the club.

Although with the Gomez injury and the subsequent coaching change, several of their underlying 5-on-5 metrics have taken a nosedive, though that was compensated by their 5-on-5 shooting percentage regressing to the mean (as expected).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyclones Rock View Post
The number of blown leads infers, quite heavily, that neither Price nor the team has been clutch. There is relevance to the blown leads and clutch.
Clutchness is narrative. Personally, I believe in it as anecdote, but I don't really believe in it as a repeatable talent.

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Originally Posted by Cyclones Rock View Post
Every year there seems to be one team which have good records in spite of relatively poor goals differentials. This year, Florida with 65 points in 56 games despite having a -15 (incl. SO) differential.
Yep -- and the point is, it's different teams each time. It's not a quality of the team, it's just a matter of where the chips fall that year.

Take last year, a team that was in the Habs situation was St-Louis: +6 goal differential counting shootouts, 87 points, 11th in the East. They're not doing too badly now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
For the Habs, at least in terms of goals differential/points earned, last year's team outperformed about the same as this year's team has underperformed.
Montreal last year was pretty much smack dab where the expectation of a +7 goal differential would be: Winning a bit more than half their games with some OTL points thrown in. This year they are severely underperforming their GD.

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Old
02-16-2012, 03:27 PM
  #16
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We've lost so many 1 goal games

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02-16-2012, 03:41 PM
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Lafleurs Guy
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Depends. Goal differential is a decent yardstick of team strength, but like most goal metrics, it's still quite coarse. Keep in mind that Montreal outscored their opponents despite injuries, PP problems, and so on. The goal-differential may be underestimating the club.
You talk like PP problems aren't something that the club is repsonsible for and should just be dismissed... Our PK has been ridiculous this year too, not sure why you want to only throw out the bad but not the good. And injuries? Not really dude... Sorry but we've seen other clubs go through much worse than we have and be far more successsful. And please don't try to bring Markov into this when we all knew what an injury risk he was.

Bottom line is that we didn't score much until RC took over and that killed us. Then when RC took over the goals went up but so did the GA. Bottom line is we're floating around even and that's what you'd expect from a bubble team.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Montreal last year was pretty much smack dab where the expectation of a +7 goal differential would be: Winning a bit more than half their games with some OTL points thrown in. This year they are severely underperforming their GD.
Even in GF & GA = bubble team. Sometimes you'll get more points, sometimes less. We're where we've always been man.

The only difference right now that gives me pause for optimism is that we've got a guy who looks like he could be a legit sniper. I'm hesistant to believe this because we saw this with Chris Higgins before he fell off a cliff after hurting his ankle but Pacman looks like the real deal. All the more reason to get younger players to play along with him.

He, Price and PK are fantastic pieces to work with. Everything else is... meh.

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02-16-2012, 03:49 PM
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MathMan
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
You talk like PP problems aren't something that the club is repsonsible for and should just be dismissed... Our PK has been ridiculous this year too, not sure why you want to only throw out the bad but not the good.
Underlying numbers. Mind you, this assumes a return to competent coaching next season.

Montreal is the best team in the league in terms of preventing scoring chances against on the PK -- this is sustainable, they have been keeping scoring chances low on the PK for years (though I wouldn't bet on them being 1st in PK next year). They were, under Martin, as good as they've been in previous years in getting PP scoring chances -- this is also sustainable, and they also had also been doing that for years. Their PP shooting percentage was absurdly low, lower than their own 5-on-5 shooting percentage as well as 29 out of 30 clubs -- and shooting percentage regresses to the mean, just like the Habs' 5-on-5 shooting percentage returned to normal this year.

Under Randy, their chance generation has been pretty much cut in half, but their shooting percentage has gone back to normal, creating the illusion that the PP is at the same point or even slightly better, rather than much worse. Under Randy, the PP has been genuinely bad rather than suffering through a finishing slump. But the talent to do well is still there, and a good coach could certainly get it going again.

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02-16-2012, 04:01 PM
  #19
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Originally Posted by Habit11 View Post
Top 4 D in ES/TOI G in order are Gorges, PK, Emelin, Diaz. That's the team's top 4, young and inexperienced in the NHL with Gorges as the #1. Then you've got Kaberle, Campoli, and Gill who the coaches deem are not fit to play more at ES than 2 guys who are NHL rookies. Blown leads shouldn't be a surprise.
Agreed. However this year, even if it isn't a glowing success, has given all 4 of those guys a lot of valuable experience. It would be nice if Markov could come back healthy next year, and we could pick up another top 4 defensive D man. Then Emelin/Diaz could be our bottom pair, which would be solid in my eyes:

Markov-Gorges
XXX-Subban
Emelin-Diaz
Weber

I'd be very happy with that next year.

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02-16-2012, 04:08 PM
  #20
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Originally Posted by FiveForDrawingBlood View Post
Looking at standings today Habs are 12th in the conference. But our Goal Diff is only -3?

This is kind of puzzling when looking at teams close to us. Tampa is -34, Buffalo -25, Islanders -26, Winnipeg -24. Even Ottawa sitting in 7th spot has a worse goal diff than us at -4. Are we a lot better than our record indictates? Could our bad season be overblown?
Our line-up even strength is decent, our PP sucks and we have a guy named Carey Price in net.. I hope it answer your questions..

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02-16-2012, 04:13 PM
  #21
Cyclones Rock
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Originally Posted by HarryHabs View Post
STAT:

The team has led at some point in 72% of the games but only won 39% of them.

Disgusting stat.
Wow. This has got to be a far below average performance.

Only three things which would seem to cause this: lack of conditioning, poor strategy, and/or pure choking (lack of clutch, as it were).

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Old
02-16-2012, 04:14 PM
  #22
Kriss E
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Give the Habs a league average PP and a better shootout record, and we'd probably in the top 8 teams.
That's why we should take this opportunity to sell some of our stock, whoever is not part of the plan moving forward and will become UFA, keep dropping in the standings and draft a high pick (or trade it for a high profile player like Weber).
Do like Philly did in 06-07, finish in the bottom, get a high pick, trade for the rights of Weber or Suter (Nashville is letting one go), re-sign Emelin and AK, and build an actual fourth line. Doing that, which is very doable, would turn us into a contender imo.

I'm not sure what the cap situation would be at this point, but we send Gomez down. That should cover a big part of Weber/Suter's number. Markov's number may also be off the cap depending what happens with him. That alone would add us close to 13M. If Markov is back, then that's far from being a problem.
We must work around the cap so that we have enough cash to bring in Semin. We'd have our game breaker star forward.

Maybe I'm anticipating too much. But I think it's very doable. Our sole focus should be on Semin and Weber, simply make it work.
We add a 35-40G scorer, we add a Norris candidate, runner up behind winner Lidstrom.
Our younger guys keep improving like DD, Eller, Leblanc, Emelin and PK.

We'd have a real solid team. Make it happen. Simple as that.

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