HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Atlantic Division > Montreal Canadiens
Notices

Draft position vs Playoffs: your cut off point

View Poll Results: Which draft positions are more valuable than making playoffs?
4 and above 12 38.71%
6 and above 14 45.16%
8 and above 4 12.90%
10 and above 1 3.23%
Voters: 31. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
02-04-2012, 09:50 AM
  #1
Frankenheimer
Registered User
 
Frankenheimer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: MTL
Posts: 1,894
vCash: 500
Draft position vs Playoffs: your cut off point

My question is really simple. There's been a lot of talk about the value of draft position compared to: eking into the playoffs, losing early and ending up with mid-round pick.

So where is your cut off point? If the choice was making the playoffs this year or getting say the 10th pick, which would you take? What about the 11th or 12th? At what point would you say its no longer worth it and making the playoffs is better?

Seems to me that only the 1-4 draft positions bring enough guarantee of future success that it would be worth making that exchange. Otherwise, I'd rather watch a round or two of playoff hockey with the small hope of a final.

Or do 5-10 bring that much more of an advantage? Don't forget this scenario assumes making it into the playoffs and therefore playing substantially better than what we're seeing these days (we would be playing at the level of last year or the year before, in which, all things considered, we had a percentage chance of making the finals, especially two years ago).

The calculus of age is important. I probably have 40 more years of Habs hockey to live for -- will a 5-10 draft pick substantially increase my chances of seeing another Cup above actually making the playoffs even in the 8th position??

I don't see this team finishing in the bottom 5 barring more injuries. They will finish in that 5-10 range and that's where the calculus gets interesting.

I guess I'm not ready to stop cheering and investing emotion in the team unless someone can statistically demonstrate that 5-10 draft order picks are a better long term play than actually making the playoffs.

*Have not done any actual calculating. Just seems numbers 4 and above have more guaranteed success than anything below.

Frankenheimer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-04-2012, 09:52 AM
  #2
WeThreeKings
Registered User
 
WeThreeKings's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Halifax
Country: Canada
Posts: 32,657
vCash: 500
Send a message via MSN to WeThreeKings
6th seed or higher in the play-offs is cool with me. If we're 7-8 I'd rather drop as deep as we can.

Contender not pretender.

WeThreeKings is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-04-2012, 09:55 AM
  #3
AllanMTL46
Alexei BOOM Emelin
 
AllanMTL46's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Ste-Agathe, Lotb.
Country: Canada
Posts: 680
vCash: 500
Playoffs. If we have a chance to make the playoffs, go for it. My cut off point will come when we're statistically eliminated from the playoffs.

AllanMTL46 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-04-2012, 09:55 AM
  #4
Richiebottles
Big Mike !
 
Richiebottles's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 8,672
vCash: 500
No finishing 9-10-11 Business. We had a terrible season and we deserve to draft a super star.

Richiebottles is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-04-2012, 10:06 AM
  #5
Dwight
The French Tickler
 
Dwight's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: West Island
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,782
vCash: 500
6 and above. A top 5 pick is (usually) a pretty big deal, and not something worth giving up.

Dwight is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
02-04-2012, 10:08 AM
  #6
Young Gun
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 1,245
vCash: 500
For me there is no "guarantee of future success" no matter where you draft, 1-4 or
20th or a 7th rounder. Drafting is a roll of the dice, even if the odds are stacked in your favour.
Play every game for the 2 points and let the chips fall where they may. A well rounded team can come from trades and free agents.

Young Gun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-04-2012, 10:10 AM
  #7
Mathradio
Go Roy Munson!
 
Mathradio's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 9,478
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Young Gun View Post
For me there is no "guarantee of future success" no matter where you draft, 1-4 or
20th or a 7th rounder. Drafting is a roll of the dice, even if the odds are stacked in your favour.
Play every game for the 2 points and let the chips fall where they may. A well rounded team can come from trades and free agents.
There may be no guarantee but GMs of bottom-feeder teams act as though a high pick IS a guarantee.

Mathradio is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-04-2012, 10:19 AM
  #8
ChemiseBleuHonnete
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 9,392
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Simon Lacroix View Post
No finishing 9-10-11 Business. We had a terrible season and we deserve to draft a super star.
this. It would be such a shame if they were to trade for a few assets to make a playoff push. That would actually be disgusting.

ChemiseBleuHonnete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-04-2012, 11:55 AM
  #9
Beakermania*
 
Beakermania*'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Kingston or Hamilton
Country: Canada
Posts: 17,965
vCash: 500
Playoffs, even in 8th spot is better than 1st overall draft pick. Remember the 2010 run... that was a lot of fun and the Oilers nearly won the cup from 8th spot. Anyone can win, as long as you are in.

That said, I see this team as done, there is no chance for playoffs, so I'm all aboard the tank mentality.


Last edited by Beakermania*: 02-04-2012 at 12:26 PM.
Beakermania* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-04-2012, 12:02 PM
  #10
Captain Smurf
Naively Optimistic
 
Captain Smurf's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Thornhill, ON
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,097
vCash: 500
8 is a decent number. It really depends how deep the top of the draft is any one year is. This year I'd say 9 or 10, depending on who goes off the board.

Captain Smurf is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-04-2012, 12:22 PM
  #11
VL55
Registered User
 
VL55's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Montreal
Country: Canada
Posts: 411
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllanMTL46 View Post
My cut off point will come when we're statistically eliminated from the playoffs.
Dude, we are. We have been for a while! Mr. 'Bit' called it January 21st when we bottomed at 5% odds. It didn't improve since then.

Now we need roughly 45 points in 31 games. That means we need to get 1.451 points per game from this point. The Rangers so far have managed 1.408 and the Red Wings 1.365.

In other words, we need to be substantially better in those last 31 games than the best of the leagues have been so far.

I call that statistically eliminated.

It's weird. These days I cheer both when the Canadiens score (out of conditionning) and get excited when they get scored against (thinking about the draft). It's win-win, in a twisted way.

VL55 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-04-2012, 12:53 PM
  #12
Lions999
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 667
vCash: 500
Forget playoffs we need deal with 4 or 5 teams to make it impossible. We need to finish in the bottom 5 and also try to snag another 1st round pick for the draft. Get rid of some dead wood on the team and pick some new blood. Then if we can get Grig in the draft we can have a very interesting team next year.

Lions999 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-04-2012, 01:13 PM
  #13
Blind Gardien
Global Moderator
nexus of the crisis
 
Blind Gardien's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Four Winds Bar
Country: France
Posts: 19,481
vCash: 500
There's no draft position more valuable than making the playoffs. At least, not this year. I could hear the argument in a year when there is a Mario Lemieux or Sidney Crosby available at #1, guys who are clearly headed for generational superstar status. But for Grigorenko or Yakupov and just a cast of solid-ish players/potential busts behind them? No, there is no draft position this year that would be better for us than making the playoffs would have been.

Blind Gardien is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-04-2012, 01:40 PM
  #14
All-Star
Registered User
 
All-Star's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Snake Mountain
Country: Canada
Posts: 6,429
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathradio View Post
There may be no guarantee but GMs of bottom-feeder teams act as though a high pick IS a guarantee.
Of course they do, they obviously suck at everything else, so hoping high picks turn into a stars is the only thing that can potentially save their jobs.

All-Star is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:20 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.