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Old
02-04-2012, 11:41 PM
  #26
Squantosawuss
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dubi Doo View Post
I think they need a solid 7 game win streak to have a chance.
Considering they've gotten 7 of their last possible 8 points and not moved one bit in the standings and/or distance from 8th, they need a winning streak as long as 12-in-a-row to have much of a chance.

They basically have to go 22-8 from here on in, and hope that all teams around them lose more games than they do.

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02-04-2012, 11:57 PM
  #27
Timbo Slice
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This is a great little streak for us..... but we're not still not going to make it. We dug ourselves too deep.

Congrats to Miller, though! Very impressive. He was great after the first period. He deserved this, for sure.

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Old
02-05-2012, 12:02 AM
  #28
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Islanders on a back to back and us rested. This should have been a gimme. Bottom line is they won. Win the next three this week, all six points and four or five,, and I might get a little excited. And, I migh add, we ain't doing much unless we get Vanek backin top form. That's key.
We're sellers still.
If anything, Gaustad's play could make him traceable for a 2nd rounder but I'd say a third. I think Leopold needs to be moved. We've got D coming up and need UFA cap space for a forward. Get a 7th for MAG if you can.
Derek Roy has so lowered his value it almost seems like we'd be crazy to give him up now but we'll get less next year. Hecht is now not tradeable.
I still think Miller is a wild card to be traded, especially as his play picks up.

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Old
02-05-2012, 12:07 AM
  #29
HogtownSabresfan
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Originally Posted by Squantosawuss View Post
Considering they've gotten 7 of their last possible 8 points and not moved one bit in the standings and/or distance from 8th, they need a winning streak as long as 12-in-a-row to have much of a chance.

They basically have to go 22-8 from here on in, and hope that all teams around them lose more games than they do.
They go 22-8 and they are in almost for sure, they don't need to scoreboard watch. But they are not going 22-8. That is a long, long shot. Best team they beat during this stretch was New jersey. Islanders suck, so do Habs. Bottom line is they didn't get 2 against rangers at home.
Don't they have 4 against bruins? Can they go 3-1 in those games? Doubt it.

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Old
02-05-2012, 12:07 AM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by THEYAREGOODSCARYGOOD View Post
If we win our next 3 games we are ony 5 points behind 7th place Ottawa (we have 3 games in hand)
It's important to understand the way ongoing play affects the standings.

For what you said to happen:
-the Sabres would have to win 3-in-a-row
-Ottawa would have to lose ALL of their games in the next week
-Tampa, Winnipeg, Toronto, the Islanders and Washington would also ALL have to lose ALL of their games in the coming week (most of them have games-in-hand on Buffalo)
-and Carlina and Montreal would have to lose most or all of their games.

Considering the in-conference games and 3 point games, the tidal wave of needed wins (and bad luck for other teams)to get back in, is a lot more severe than your simple math would indicate.

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02-05-2012, 12:15 AM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Squantosawuss View Post
It's important to understand the way ongoing play affects the standings.

For what you said to happen:
-the Sabres would have to win 3-in-a-row
-Ottawa would have to lose ALL of their games in the next week
-Tampa, Winnipeg, Toronto, the Islanders and Washington would also ALL have to lose ALL of their games in the coming week (most of them have games-in-hand on Buffalo)
-and Carlina and Montreal would have to lose most or all of their games.

Considering the in-conference games and 3 point games, the tidal wave of needed wins (and bad luck for other teams)to get back in, is a lot more severe than your simple math would indicate.
I'm not to worried about Tampa and Winnipeg but whether ottawa wins next weeks games or not, we have 3 games in hand which if we win we only need to gain 5 points on Ottawa through the rest of the season, I think toronto will get 7th and 8th could be available with ottawa and Florida possibly dropping out of the playoffs

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Old
02-05-2012, 01:03 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by sba View Post
Here comes the lame rush to the playoffs that ruins the draft pick and helps keep Lindy and Darcy's jobs.
i hate to be such a pessimist... but this.

i see a decade of thinking about couterier and grigorneko.... and waht coukd have been

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Old
02-05-2012, 01:12 AM
  #33
Connor McDavid
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They need 90 points (for argument's sake).

90-50= 40 points

30 games left.

20-10-0
19-9-2
18-8-4
17-7-6

et cetera.

e: whoops math

I think that's doable for this roster when it's firing, but what do I know .

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Old
02-05-2012, 01:16 AM
  #34
HogtownSabresfan
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Originally Posted by THEYAREGOODSCARYGOOD View Post
I'm not to worried about Tampa and Winnipeg but whether ottawa wins next weeks games or not, we have 3 games in hand which if we win we only need to gain 5 points on Ottawa through the rest of the season, I think toronto will get 7th and 8th could be available with ottawa and Florida possibly dropping out of the playoffs
The argument is pretty simple. You usually need 93 points. Looks like the pace this year. Sabres have 50 and need another 43 over last 30 games. So make that 20-7-3 or whatever variation you want. Doable but tall order. even the 10-5 start this year is not a good enough pace. You can say win whatever you want but that's reality. They need to play .717 hockey which would be a 117 point season pace.

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02-05-2012, 01:19 AM
  #35
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90 points is the wrong argument. Washington is the 8th place team on percentage basis and on pace for 93 points. The three points make a huge difference.

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Old
02-05-2012, 01:40 AM
  #36
MGIII
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HogtownSabresfan View Post
The argument is pretty simple. You usually need 93 points. Looks like the pace this year. Sabres have 50 and need another 43 over last 30 games. So make that 20-7-3 or whatever variation you want. Doable but tall order. even the 10-5 start this year is not a good enough pace. You can say win whatever you want but that's reality. They need to play .717 hockey which would be a 117 point season pace.
So basically play like the best team in hockey during the back stretch of the season again. Got it.

This team drives me insane.

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Old
02-05-2012, 01:59 AM
  #37
Connor McDavid
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On pace don't mean ****, with all due respect.

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Old
02-05-2012, 02:21 AM
  #38
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Sabres would need to get about 3 out of every 4 points for a shot at making it.

And i think we all see a run coming. One that will most likely have them finishing in 9th or 10th

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Old
02-05-2012, 03:16 AM
  #39
Squantosawuss
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Quote:
Originally Posted by THEYAREGOODSCARYGOOD View Post
I'm not to worried about Tampa and Winnipeg but whether ottawa wins next weeks games or not, we have 3 games in hand which if we win we only need to gain 5 points on Ottawa through the rest of the season, I think toronto will get 7th and 8th could be available with ottawa and Florida possibly dropping out of the playoffs
Not sure why you so readily write off pretty much all the teams behind and ahead of the Sabres. They're 3 points out of 15th and 10 points out of 8th. You keep mentioning the games-in-hand on Ottawa. So? There are more teams from #7-#15 with ganes-in-hand on Buffalo than the other way around. And if suddenly Ottawa plummtes like a rock, there are a whole bunch of teams already in line ahead of the Sabres (with games-in-hand) ready to swipe that 8th or 7th spot away.

Or do you think the Sabres are *that* magical?? Stop talking to Darcy.

This team has key shortcomings---and has had them for years. This latest surge (can you call it that while 3 points out of 15th?) is important to get trade values up, not for making a vain "run".

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02-05-2012, 06:04 AM
  #40
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I'm not even sure if I'm suppose to be happy or frustrated right now.

I really hope this isn't another race to 10th place in the Conference.

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02-05-2012, 06:17 AM
  #41
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Good: Miller taking the record. Winning!

Ugly: Playing our way out of a pick? Complaints all year long about lack of effort and poor play. Now our good play is being criticised. Give the team a break and show some support.

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Old
02-05-2012, 08:45 AM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Montag DP View Post
The race to 10th is on!


Quote:
Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
Was there ever a doubt?
If you're not in the top 3, you may as well be 10-13 as you'll get quality 4-13 in this draft. So they either need a total collapse (not likely now they are healthy) or we may as well enjoy the ride at this point. Meaningful hockey in February is OK with me, though they could all be just putting on a trade deadline show.

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Old
02-05-2012, 09:17 AM
  #43
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G-
Ennis, Pomminville, Gaustad, Sekera

B
My god, Mike Weber is brutal with the puck in his own zone. Several horrendous turnovers. What a disappointment he's been this year. He makes me miss Chris Butler.

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Old
02-05-2012, 09:49 AM
  #44
HogtownSabresfan
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Originally Posted by MGIII View Post
So basically play like the best team in hockey during the back stretch of the season again. Got it.

This team drives me insane.
That's about the size of it. This is way at least treading water when your team is sucking is so important and why Sabres blew it by not making some changes during that time. If they have 5-6 more points in standings this whole story changes.
To me, only way I bring Ruff back is if he makes the playoffs. Otherwise. Changes.

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02-05-2012, 10:27 AM
  #45
Afino
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I'm just going to enjoy a win and pretend the stupid draft position/Lindy and Darcy comments above didn't happen.

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Old
02-05-2012, 11:30 AM
  #46
Dubi Doo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kruschiki View Post
If you're not in the top 3, you may as well be 10-13 as you'll get quality 4-13 in this draft. So they either need a total collapse (not likely now they are healthy) or we may as well enjoy the ride at this point. Meaningful hockey in February is OK with me, though they could all be just putting on a trade deadline show.
Exactly. This team wasn't drafting top 3 now that they're healthy. I'm glad to see them put in the effort. They have the talent to go on a run. Its going to be tough, but I'm rooting for them to get wins.

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Old
02-05-2012, 11:42 AM
  #47
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93 pts has been good enough to make the playoffs the last three seasons. 19-6-5. A lot of ground to make up, but they outscored teams by the following amounts from Feb 6-End of Season last year:

Florida: 23 pts
ATL/WIN: 21 pts
Montreal: 12 pts
NY Rangers: 12 pts
Philadelphia: 12 pts
Tampa Bay: 11 pts
NY Islanders: 11 pts
Ottawa: 11 pts
Carolina: 10 pts
Pittsburgh: 9 pts
Boston: 7 pts
Toronto: 5 pts
New Jersey: 4 pts
Washington: 4 pts

Interestingly, Buffalo's record after Feb 6, 2011? 19-7-5. I'm not saying they will do it, but it can be done.

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Old
02-05-2012, 03:22 PM
  #48
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http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...t/Buffalo.html

Game, set, match. 1.2% chance of making the playoffs. I'll take the 98.8% side thank you very much.

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Old
02-05-2012, 03:57 PM
  #49
aceface33
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Originally Posted by ProngersEyeball View Post
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...t/Buffalo.html

Game, set, match. 1.2% chance of making the playoffs. I'll take the 98.8% side thank you very much.
Before the first game after the All Star Break it was 0.06%

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Old
02-05-2012, 04:21 PM
  #50
VaporTrail
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Oooohhhh Aaaahhhhhh Sabres on the warpath !

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