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Sullivan Effect

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10-22-2004, 09:09 AM
  #1
nine_inch_fang
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Sullivan Effect

Okay how about a little speculation to pass the time?

Obviously if we have a season at all it won’t be an 82 game season but if nothing else changed would Sully’s point production alone earn the Preds 5-10 points in the standings? (throughout a full season)

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10-22-2004, 09:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nine_inch_fang
Okay how about a little speculation to pass the time?

Obviously if we have a season at all it won’t be an 82 game season but if nothing else changed would Sully’s point production alone earn the Preds 5-10 points in the standings? (throughout a full season)
I'd say he helped us gain that may points in the standings last season. Not ncessarily because of his ability alone, but because he helped light a fire under the predators' arses!

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10-22-2004, 09:41 AM
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fun question to speculate on fangs...

sully played 56 games before the trade...scored 15 goals...so say he would have scored those 15 goals with the preds instead...now that doesn't mean the preds would have scored 15 more goals,because obviously he would have taken the playing time away from someone who was playing and scored some actual goals for the preds during that time....so,being conservative, say it would have meant a net add of maybe 9 goals(you would assume that he would have scored quite a bit more than whoever he replaced)....preds were in many,many one goal games last year so oftentimes a single goal would have equaled one more point in the standings(turning losses into ties,ties into wins),but you have to remember we had an excellent won/loss record in one goal games.....now figure that the preds won about 60% of their games,so you would assume that 60% of sully's net add goals would have been in those wins(and therefore wouldn't affect season point totals)...so assume 5 of those 9 net goal adds would have made no difference....we lost many games by more than one goal,but several of those(more than the league average)were because of the 7 empty netters we gave up at game end trying to scramble..so for arguments sake say one of sully's net add goals occured when we were way behind and meant nothing pointwise....

so using this logic.....sully would have meant about 3 additional points to the preds over a full season...giving us 94 and the 6th seed

you of course could argue that with the preds,he would have scored more than the 15 goals he scored in 56 games with the hawks....i think that is logical too....this year(i mean IF there would have been a year and a full 82 game schedule)i really think sully has an excellent chance to put up 30 goals.....which might mean say 5-6 additional points...

convoluted enough?

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10-22-2004, 10:04 AM
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interesting discussion....it seemed that later into the season, teams got used to our new left handed power play with Sully down low, which accounted for a number of his early goals; and it wasn't near as affective later as it was when he first joined us. Is that an easy adjustment for most teams, or would you expect it to continue to bother teams throughout the year?

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10-22-2004, 10:28 AM
  #5
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teams obviously can adjust to the pp being run primarily off the left halfboards..but it's never easy...like facing a lefty in baseball....you just see so many rightys you get more used to them.....one thing a team could do,is to move personel around on the pk to try to "adjust"....but you would think this is really counter produtive,putting defensive people in positions they're not as comfortable with...so you think that as long as most teams put together their pk teams to match up best against right halfboard run pp's it would always have some advantage(that is as long as you had enough skilled righthanded people to run it effectively)...no doubt the biggest reason it was an early advantage is the surprise of seeing it for the first time but knowing to anticipate it and preparing for it negates some of that advantage

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10-25-2004, 12:49 AM
  #6
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Well, one thing that can't be overlooked in this analysis was the mental effect that the addition of Sully had for the rest of the team. For the first time in team history, management showed a willingness to go for it and I think that the team stepped up as a result. Yes, Sully brought more talent to our club, but it's tough to discount the signal that the team received from that move - to a man they saw that we weren't folding up the tent this past season because we went out and acquired Sullivan, and I think it gave a HUGE emotional lift to a team that's used to crumbling down the stretch. Actually, I think it was more beneficial to pick up Sullivan for the stretch run for that reason - had he been with us for the entire season, there would have been no lift for the rest of the team.

That being said, I think a full season with Sully in the lineup would definitely make a difference in a lot of the one-goal losses we had last season. I'd expect us to pick up at least 6 more points with Sully here for the full term.

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Old
10-25-2004, 06:33 AM
  #7
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i tend to agree that the pyshcological impact of acquiring sully was huge.....and probably helped avoid a possible late season collapse...and i'm not disputing that,his acquisition was huge no doubt...we all know how normally late in the year we have struggled the last 20 games in 4 of our 5 years...

now i think there's explainations for those 'collapses' in that 2 of those years it was because we were totally eliminated so early,the other was caused by injury(legwand,johansson)the 4th was just we didn't really have the talent,and it finally caught up to us i thought

but many think we played much better hockey after getting sully,as if this were the only reason we made the playoffs,and virtually forget the rest of the year....

pre sully-preds were;
27-21-8-2 for 64 pts in 58 games,a .552 winning percentage
post-sully-preds were almost an identical;
11-8-3-2 for 27 pts in 24 games,a .562 winning percentage

not counting the final game,the win against the avs after we had clinched the playoff spot we actually had a higher winning % before the sully trade than the games after acquiring sully(.543 not counting the av win)

don't take this wrong,i don't think there was anyway we would have held on and made the playoffs without the sully pickup,we needed the boost,the experience,and the talent....but this team played some pretty great hockey pre-sully too


Last edited by Pred303: 10-25-2004 at 10:45 AM.
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10-25-2004, 10:41 AM
  #8
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I think one of the reasons we used to struggle towards the end of the season is it's crunch time. Most teams seem to coast through the regular season until the end. Not the Preds. Early on in our existence, we would give it 110% most every game. Teams, for the most part, just weren't matching our level of effort. But towards the end of the season, the more talented teams start to pick it up. Once they close the effort gap, their talent takes over. It's not that we got worse or choked; it's that the other teams just got better.

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Old
10-25-2004, 10:46 AM
  #9
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no doubt you're right smokey..hard to put it into 5th gear...when you're driving a fourspeed

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