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Estimating NHL scoring for Soviet players

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01-12-2014, 05:21 PM
  #1
steve141
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Estimating NHL scoring for Soviet players

Has anyone done any serious attempt at estimating what Soviet era players would have scored in the NHL?

I had an idea for a crude approximation by adjusting the Soviet numbers against the player's own results after moving to the NHL. Most players have a similar career curve, with scoring usually peaking in their mid 20s.

Let's take Makarov for example. He scored 1.08 points per game in his first NHL season. In his last Soviet league season he scored 1.23 points per game.

Using 1.08/1.23=0.87 as the basis for PPG adjustment allows us to estimate what his earlier years would translate to in the NHL.

Estimated NHL points for Makarov
SeasonAgeTeamSoviet GPEst GPSoviet PPGAdj PPGEst Points
       
1976-77 18 Traktor Chelyabinsk 11 24 0,09 0,08 2
1977-78 19 Traktor Chelyabinsk 36 80 0,86 0,75 60
1978-79 20 CSKA Moscow 44 80 0,89 0,78 62
1979-80 21 CSKA Moscow 44 80 1,55 1,35 108
1980-81 22 CSKA Moscow 49 80 1,61 1,41 113
1981-82 23 CSKA Moscow 46 78 1,63 1,43 112
1982-83 24 CSKA Moscow 30 55 1,40 1,23 67
1983-84 25 CSKA Moscow 44 80 1,66 1,45 116
1984-85 26 CSKA Moscow 40 80 1,63 1,42 114
1985-86 27 CSKA Moscow 40 80 1,55 1,36 109
1986-87 28 CSKA Moscow 40 80 1,33 1,16 93
1987-88 29 CSKA Moscow 44 80 1,55 1,35 108
1988-89 30 CSKA Moscow 44 80 1,23 1,08 86

Does this seem reasonable? What's a better way of doing it otherwise? The above method does not take league level scoring in the NHL nor Soviet into account for one. Does anyone have this info for the Soviet league?

The above numbers would put Makarov at 1531 points in 1381 games if he had played his entire career in the NHL. Does that seem about right?

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01-12-2014, 10:30 PM
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Henkka
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Quote:
Originally Posted by steve141 View Post
Does this seem reasonable? What's a better way of doing it otherwise? The above method does not take league level scoring in the NHL nor Soviet into account for one. Does anyone have this info for the Soviet league?

The above numbers would put Makarov at 1531 points in 1381 games if he had played his entire career in the NHL. Does that seem about right?
Sovjet league didn't have the 2nd assist in their time. That could change those stats drastically.

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01-12-2014, 10:33 PM
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Yamaguchi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by steve141 View Post
Has anyone done any serious attempt at estimating what Soviet era players would have scored in the NHL?

I had an idea for a crude approximation by adjusting the Soviet numbers against the player's own results after moving to the NHL. Most players have a similar career curve, with scoring usually peaking in their mid 20s.

Let's take Makarov for example. He scored 1.08 points per game in his first NHL season. In his last Soviet league season he scored 1.23 points per game.

Using 1.08/1.23=0.87 as the basis for PPG adjustment allows us to estimate what his earlier years would translate to in the NHL.

Estimated NHL points for Makarov
SeasonAgeTeamSoviet GPEst GPSoviet PPGAdj PPGEst Points
       
1976-77 18 Traktor Chelyabinsk 11 24 0,09 0,08 2
1977-78 19 Traktor Chelyabinsk 36 80 0,86 0,75 60
1978-79 20 CSKA Moscow 44 80 0,89 0,78 62
1979-80 21 CSKA Moscow 44 80 1,55 1,35 108
1980-81 22 CSKA Moscow 49 80 1,61 1,41 113
1981-82 23 CSKA Moscow 46 78 1,63 1,43 112
1982-83 24 CSKA Moscow 30 55 1,40 1,23 67
1983-84 25 CSKA Moscow 44 80 1,66 1,45 116
1984-85 26 CSKA Moscow 40 80 1,63 1,42 114
1985-86 27 CSKA Moscow 40 80 1,55 1,36 109
1986-87 28 CSKA Moscow 40 80 1,33 1,16 93
1987-88 29 CSKA Moscow 44 80 1,55 1,35 108
1988-89 30 CSKA Moscow 44 80 1,23 1,08 86

Does this seem reasonable? What's a better way of doing it otherwise? The above method does not take league level scoring in the NHL nor Soviet into account for one. Does anyone have this info for the Soviet league?

The above numbers would put Makarov at 1531 points in 1381 games if he had played his entire career in the NHL. Does that seem about right?


Please don't forget that in the Soviet league they often wouldn't count secondary assists.

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01-13-2014, 12:25 AM
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steve141
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Originally Posted by Henkka View Post
Sovjet league didn't have the 2nd assist in their time. That could change those stats drastically.
Not really, since that is accounted for by adjusting to the player's own last season. Unless the scoring system changed during the player's career?

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01-13-2014, 05:23 AM
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Henkka
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Originally Posted by steve141 View Post
Not really, since that is accounted for by adjusting to the player's own last season. Unless the scoring system changed during the player's career?
Okay, it takes them in count. I think the system was same until the collapse of the Soviet Union. Just looking from HockeyDB.com there's always almost identical amount of goals and assists in team totals.

How many goals would Makarov have scored with NHL projection? That secondary assist affects on those amounts. Or how about Krutov?

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01-14-2014, 10:52 PM
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Czech Your Math
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I would recommend reading this article:

Behind the Net: Projecting to the NHL

That study used goals, so a separate calculation would have to be done for assists, based on the varying Assist/Goal ratio in each league.

For more current data, one can reference this article:

Puckworlds: How Good is the KHL?

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