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Now vs Future

View Poll Results: What group are you part of?
Go for it now? 19 50.00%
Get a rental? 10 26.32%
Don't give up the future? 9 23.68%
Voters: 38. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
02-07-2012, 03:44 PM
  #26
barrytrotzsneck
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Originally Posted by Drake744 View Post
I don't want to "go for it now". I want to keep going for it, year after year after year. I want my solid prospects, my stud goaltender, my awesome blueliners, my revolving door of role players, and my ownership that is willing to shell out the cash in order to make this thing happen. The future right now looks insane if we can continue to develop and grow our young guys, re-sign the key pieces, and open up the wallet. Making trades is addition by subtraction. Keeping this group and continuing to build this into a next-level franchise is addition and addition alone.

We won't do nothing. Even if it's something small but useful. This is the team that grabbed Jan Hlavac for a 7th round pick and watched him be a type of contributor that we needed at the time.
That smells great, but it's tough to say it's the perfect approach. If it were, we wouldn't be struggling to convince star players to stick it out and hang around.

It's great that the fans are on board and are buying in--but the players seem to be more skeptical. We finally one a playoff round after 5 previous attempts saw us eliminated in no more than six games. I don't think the acceptable curve is for us now to spend the next six years making the second round before bouncing out. You've got two superstar defenseman and a superstar goaltender in prime years. you have nothing in the system that supplants those players or exercises the potential to replace them. The window is now--like Friedman said, the Bolts knew they weren't going to be able to keep Khabibulin. The Blackhawks knew that they had tons of young players due huge raises and they wouldn't be able to keep all of them...but it didn't stop either of those teams from making the necessary measures to get over the top. Don't you think that the Hawks knew that Hossa coming aboard likely meant that they wouldn't be able to keep Ladd, Byugflien, Versteeg, etc? Of course they did, but they also knew they were in a rare position, and it's worth it if you can win it all.

So..sure, it may suck to move a good prospect like Ryan Ellis, it may bum you out if he's playing elsewhere next season and going forward, but if it meant that you a) went deep in the playoffs and b) kept suter and weber, it's absolutely worth it, and you've cheated your team if you had the opportunity and blew it.

Obviously, Hossa was a key contributor for the Hawks in that cup run, which is why I think you have to make the RIGHT move. trading for clarke macarthur might mean another 15-20 goal scorer in your lineup, but that's not what we're missing, and doesn't make up for losing a valuable asset...and i don't see anyone advocating trading Ellis or Josi for an iffy rental...but if you can get Carter, RPG, even the early rights to Parise and go on a run...by god, do it.

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02-07-2012, 03:50 PM
  #27
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I have not voted yet. With no idea who could be available, how can you decide? I am not going to advocate trading away future assets when there is no assurance that Suter, then Weber will walk ANYWAY. Then we lose BOTH assets, as EF says; that is what I have been brooding about.

I understand those guys have the right to look out for their future-- but so does the franchise, and quite frankly, I am in it for the crest on the front, not the name on the back...

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02-07-2012, 03:57 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyin318 View Post
OT: The only game I've seen in Madison Square Garden, Jan Hlavac scored a hat trick on hat night. Never seen so many hats on the ice.
The most hysterical hat trick giveaway night was one of Kane's Hat Tricks in Chicago ... the giveaway ... Construction Helmets

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02-07-2012, 03:59 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by barrytrotzsneck View Post
So..sure, it may suck to move a good prospect like Ryan Ellis, it may bum you out if he's playing elsewhere next season and going forward, but if it meant that you a) went deep in the playoffs and b) kept suter and weber, it's absolutely worth it, and you've cheated your team if you had the opportunity and blew it.
If I knew both a) and b) would come to pass, even if I knew only b) would come to pass, I would vote "go for it" no doubt. Like I said, I'm gun-shy. I'll believe Suter resigns when he resigns, not a day before, regardless of how well they do in the playoffs.



Quote:
Originally Posted by barrytrotzsneck View Post
Obviously, Hossa was a key contributor for the Hawks in that cup run, which is why I think you have to make the RIGHT move. trading for clarke macarthur might mean another 15-20 goal scorer in your lineup, but that's not what we're missing, and doesn't make up for losing a valuable asset...and i don't see anyone advocating trading Ellis or Josi for an iffy rental...but if you can get Carter, RPG, even the early rights to Parise and go on a run...by god, do it.
You're a good and respectful writer and seem to have some reasonable opions. For the record, Hossa wasn't a trade deadline aquistion for Chicago. He was with them the whole season.

Getting Carter or Parise would be terrific, we'll enjoy the postseason run, but then I'll be keeping my fingers crossed in the offseason.

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02-07-2012, 04:00 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by darth5 View Post
I have not voted yet. With no idea who could be available, how can you decide? I am not going to advocate trading away future assets when there is no assurance that Suter, then Weber will walk ANYWAY. Then we lose BOTH assets, as EF says; that is what I have been brooding about.

I understand those guys have the right to look out for their future-- but so does the franchise, and quite frankly, I am in it for the crest on the front, not the name on the back...
Excellent points ... especially the second one

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02-07-2012, 04:02 PM
  #31
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I also have to ask the question, what kind of splash do the Preds have to make?

For example; to get a guy who will be a top point producer for the Preds he would have to be in the top 60 (38 points) and on a team that is out.

From my count that's 16 total guys and a LOT of them are young and unmovable; Hall, Eberle, Stamkos, Tavares, ETC. If you want one of these guys you need to take a bad contract WHICH Nashville can take if they are going to be a cap team.

the next step down is below Erat's production of 39 points. That's top 120, which is 28 points. This is doable. Nash and Carter fall into this point production.

But my question is this, IS a top 120 guy enough? I say no. Right now Nashville has 6 forwards who are top 120 in point production. That's two lines worth and that's only the forwards.

Looking goal wise, the Preds have 2 guys in the top 90 (Top line forward 14 goals or more). Fisher and Hornqvist with Legwand and SK very close to cracking this with 13.

So, you can say the Preds have 4 first line forwards. (Don't pass out.)

Do they have a dynamic goal scorers? Nope, but they do produce.

My question is is Jeff Carter enough?

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02-07-2012, 04:03 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyin318 View Post
If I knew both a) and b) would come to pass, even if I knew only b) would come to pass, I would vote "go for it" no doubt. Like I said, I'm gun-shy. I'll believe Suter resigns when he resigns, not a day before, regardless of how well they do in the playoffs.





You're a good and respectful writer and seem to have some reasonable opions. For the record, Hossa wasn't a trade deadline aquistion for Chicago. He was with them the whole season.

Getting Carter or Parise would be terrific, we'll enjoy the postseason run, but then I'll be keeping my fingers crossed in the offseason.
I know that Hossa was an offseason acquisition\signing...but they made it with full awareness of what they were up against the following season. It's a little different than Nashville's situation, but in a way...it was an even bolder move.

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02-07-2012, 04:26 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by barrytrotzsneck View Post
I know that Hossa was an offseason acquisition\signing...but they made it with full awareness of what they were up against the following season. It's a little different than Nashville's situation, but in a way...it was an even bolder move.
Oh okay I read that incorrectly...my apologies!

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02-07-2012, 04:30 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
I also have to ask the question, what kind of splash do the Preds have to make?

For example; to get a guy who will be a top point producer for the Preds he would have to be in the top 60 (38 points) and on a team that is out.

From my count that's 16 total guys and a LOT of them are young and unmovable; Hall, Eberle, Stamkos, Tavares, ETC. If you want one of these guys you need to take a bad contract WHICH Nashville can take if they are going to be a cap team.

the next step down is below Erat's production of 39 points. That's top 120, which is 28 points. This is doable. Nash and Carter fall into this point production.

But my question is this, IS a top 120 guy enough? I say no. Right now Nashville has 6 forwards who are top 120 in point production. That's two lines worth and that's only the forwards.

Looking goal wise, the Preds have 2 guys in the top 90 (Top line forward 14 goals or more). Fisher and Hornqvist with Legwand and SK very close to cracking this with 13.

So, you can say the Preds have 4 first line forwards. (Don't pass out.)

Do they have a dynamic goal scorers? Nope, but they do produce.

My question is is Jeff Carter enough?
Well, to be fair, i don't think we really have any top line forwards. Erat would be the closest. I think we have two second lines and two third lines. I think you could also look at past production of guys like Jeff Carter and Rick Nash...and with a reasonable degree of confidence, expect them to produce more on a better team, considering they've always been top 50 point getters,consistently and historically.

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02-07-2012, 04:57 PM
  #35
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I have no idea! This is too hard.

I'm glad I'm not Poile.

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02-07-2012, 05:09 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by darth5 View Post
I have not voted yet. With no idea who could be available, how can you decide? I am not going to advocate trading away future assets when there is no assurance that Suter, then Weber will walk ANYWAY. Then we lose BOTH assets, as EF says; that is what I have been brooding about.

I understand those guys have the right to look out for their future-- but so does the franchise, and quite frankly, I am in it for the crest on the front, not the name on the back...
A wonderful idea, but it's easier to walk away than to stick-it-out. Most people will just walk-away and look for greener pastures to place their proverbial selves.


The issue as I see it:

We have two highly producing and popular D-men whom have pointed out that they'd like some help on offense. You have the three choices to make, and must find the lesser of three evils in this situation.

Scenario 1 - You don't do well in the playoffs

A) You sell the farm and stake your claim on a juicy prospect, and at the end of the year. The D-men realize you're serious about this and stay, because you've acquired a top-3 player who can put up points and keep the pressure off. The likelihood of them re-signing is much higher. I'd guestimate somewhere around 75% if you can acquire someone whom they can rely on in the offensive zone.

- Almost assuredly this will cost the most of the three, but we have a lot of prospects to spare. I don't see how this could hurt us that much, and it gives us that much more of a chance to re-sign the D-men.

B) You sell for a sub-par 20+ goal scorer on the team. You're slowly running out of room on the team for these types of players. Which line do you put him on? He certainly helps the lower lines produce more, but doesn't add a large chunk of offense to the team. The D-men are happy you are trying, but are now uncertain if you'll ever be serious enough to contend for the cup. Likely one bolts for a new team and the other stays for a short-term contract. Now you have to replace an all-star D-man and not just a few prospects.

- This cost won't be that expensive, but the long-term costs could be astronomical. We could get away with just a Blum + Lindback trade and then if either Shea or Suter walk during this time..we then have to trade again to get a D-man or hope there is a good FA acquisition waiting. Either way, we will most likely lose in this scenario. Only about a 50% chance that they both stay.

C) You do nothing come deadline and ride the horse that brought you there. You are not just gambling with the Cup chances, but the possibility of the 2 all-star D-men walking together and being left with a void that can't be filled with sub-par offensive talent, since you missed your opportunity at trading. The good news would be you kept your prospects and you can fill the positions with young talent. The bad news, you won't be relevant for at least 2-4 years.

- The cost here could be unfathomable or could be almost nothing. We could get lucky that Weber and Suter stay if we do well in the playoffs, but there is a major possibility that we lose both and not only lose out on all-star players but lose out on the fan base building as well. Losing stars like Weber and Suter in the same year would cripple the Predators organization. We'd go from a possible cap team to trying to stay well below the midpoint to make-up for the ticket-sales we'd lose from this. Not to mention our on-the-ice product would suffer terribly.



Scenario 2 - If we do well in the playoffs.

A) I think this one is self-explanatory. You sell the farm and the end result is a very good chance at the Stanley Cup. You get what you wanted and so do the D-men. They are very happy at the end of the year and almost assuredly wish to buy-in for the future of the franchise. With the possibility of Radulov returning + Superstar staying. You've not only done well in these playoffs. You've possibly set yourself up for a run for the next 3-5 years as the perennial cup contenders.

- This will cost the possibility of the younger players getting a chance in Nashville, but sets us up for a future where we may not need our farm league to bring us all our talent. You could be set for the next couple of seasons and there is a distinct possibility your franchise becomes the biggest sport in town, dethroning the NFL team and allowing for major ticket sales increases. With the fans comes the money and the players will get to play in front of a packed house more often which will inspire them more. About 100% assured you re-sign both D-men. The only downfall. You'll have to draft some players who can fill the positions you just lost. Upside you have room now and won't have to get rid of much.

B) You pick-up a 20+ Goal scorer and he works out well enough to propel you in the standings and gets you far in the playoffs. Your D-men are happy you did well in the playoffs this year and see that the team is starting to get somewhat serious about making a future for this team. You have enough to keep the lines set and even add some scoring potential for the year to come to even greater your odds of re-signing the D-men. You lost very little young talent, but you are going to have to trade some of them away or waive them, because you just don't have room for everyone anymore.

- You'll probably have to trade a few players, but it won't be losing your core of young talent. Probably just a few pieces. This scenario works out the cheapest and seems more Dan Poile-like. Good news, you have a lot of cap-space next year still left and you have a great roster signed. Especially if Radulov returns. You'll also have room come the deadline next year to make a move if needed. Chances both D-men re-sign are better because of the playoff run, but diminished because you didn't fill the void of big scoring help. 75% chance they both re-sign.

C) You didn't make a move, because you didn't have to make a move. This team was already ready for a big playoff push. You get it done with younger talent and even though it was the road less traveled you feel a sense of accomplishment for building this team more from scratch than the FA pool. With the possibility of Radulovs scoring return you can address the immediate need in scoring depth quickly and without even the slightest cap-hit to the organization. You can provide large contracts for anyone returning and pay raises. You get experience from the young. The D-men are happy about the playoff run but unhappy you didn't even attempt to help them. If you don't win the Stanley cup in this scenario..you're more than likely going to lose one D-man and possibly 2. They'll consider the reason they didn't win is because they didn't have scoring help.

- The cost in the beginning was nothing. The cost at the end could be great. Losing one, possibly 2 all-stars even though you did well in the playoffs. This is of course depending on their views and is hypothetical in nature. I'd say the chances of re-signing them after this run and no help offensively is more like 65%. Better than if you lose, but still not that great. More than likely you'll lose one but retain the other. My guess is Weber stays and Suter goes here.


---------------------------------------------------------------

Now, of course take this with a grain of salt. Everything discussed hear is hinging on something in the future that we all know nothing about. That is to say, it all hinges on how well we do in the playoffs. The scenarios I provided is if we don't do well in the playoffs what would (hypothetically) happen and if we did well what would (hypothetically) happen. I think the lesser of the evils is hiring a superstar...at least we'd have a good shot at grabbing Weber and Suter again next year. Even if we don't do amazing they can go home knowing that the Preds are buying-in and not just sitting out the hand. We'd also be able to re-draft new prospects and fill the gaps lost by our rising stars. You have to remember if we hire anyone, someone has to go. If we leave it, then we have the possibility of losing everything or just a little.

I think Scenario A is the least hurtful choice. You would have a decent chance of re-signing Weber and Suter in the next year whether we do well or not in the playoffs. You'll also be ready to build the team around 4 core superstars (Rinne, Weber, Suter, and Superstar) and still have a few of your great help around them. You could drop people like Smithson out of the system and keep the better producing forwards on the lower lines. Evening out the defensive and offensive sides of the ice.

Well, I don't call myself a professional here so obviously take this as it is. Just my opinion on the subject. Either way, could be one of the most important deadlines in Predators history. Which is why I think everyone is so enthralled by it. I'll stay a fan either way it goes.

When I referred to losing fans. I of course didn't mean the die-hard people like us who even go so far as to talk in message boards about it. I mean the average joe-schmo who hears about the Preds on the news and goes to the game because it's "cool" that is what we ultimately want. A demand for tickets which will allow us to be a perennial cap-spending team.


Last edited by predwings: 02-07-2012 at 05:10 PM. Reason: Fixing the Template
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Old
02-07-2012, 05:54 PM
  #37
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predwings-- a serious and thoughtful post. I know you did not mean to imply this franchise won't need a good farm/prospect system long term, just to empty slots short term.

Ultimately, 'are we not entertained?'
The franchise is built to entertain the fans, win when it matters, and at least break even for ownership. Notice I don't list to satisfy players, because if the team is winning when it matters and stays solvent, everybody wins. Any player not on board with that is never going to be content in Nashville. Period. And they are better off getting the heck out of here in my book. Need to be all in for the team, and personal goals will come with that. Or they are better off in SJ, Detroit, NY, Vancouver, etc...

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02-07-2012, 06:16 PM
  #38
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Why does have to be Now vs. Future? Why can't it be both? Do we want to be Tampa Bay or Detroit? I want to be good this year and for years after. Trading away young players or prospects when you're not sure of your core staying together is not a smart move. Poile is unfortunately in a bad Catch-22. If he does nothing, he risks losing Suter and/or Weber. If he does something, he loses the players moved and still risks losing Suter and/or Weber. If he does a move Suter and Weber approve of, he may lose both anyway because the team didn't perform well. At the end of the day this is about winning. Remember, we made a move for Forsberg and while I was thrilled to see him play for us, was it worth getting a broken down hall of famer and not know how to utilize him? Really, he had to play with Fiddler. Enough said about that.

If the right player/deal presents itself you do it but if not, you sit on what you have, roll the dice and see what this group of players can do. While people are not encouraged by what's on the ice and don't think we'll go further than we did last season, I'm pretty excited about it. Josi and Ellis are a significant upgrade on D. Wilson will be playing the playoffs. Our 3rd and 4th line guys never give up. Rinne is well Rinne. While they are not proven playoff performer(the young guys), they have to start somewhere.

We have a farm system that is training the next wave of young players to come through our system.

I think it would be short-sighted to go for it for this season and this season alone. That's the way to kill all the momentum we've built over the last bunch of years.

Add a bigger version of the cube on the blue and if a top 3 is available, do it. Other than that, I'd sit and let these players grow as a team. Go after a big fish in free agency.

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02-07-2012, 06:23 PM
  #39
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like btn said, the right answer is, "go for it" if a "go for it" type player is available... otherwise, get rentals... do not do nothing
agreed

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02-07-2012, 06:24 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by darth5 View Post
predwings-- a serious and thoughtful post. I know you did not mean to imply this franchise won't need a good farm/prospect system long term, just to empty slots short term.

Ultimately, 'are we not entertained?'
The franchise is built to entertain the fans, win when it matters, and at least break even for ownership. Notice I don't list to satisfy players, because if the team is winning when it matters and stays solvent, everybody wins. Any player not on board with that is never going to be content in Nashville. Period. And they are better off getting the heck out of here in my book. Need to be all in for the team, and personal goals will come with that. Or they are better off in SJ, Detroit, NY, Vancouver, etc...
Well, I think you're asking the wrong people about being entertained. Of course the people on here believe in their team and have strong opinions about how things should be done. I think (From the ownership standpoint) they are looking more at the average person who walks along the streets of Nashville. They don't want the 15k people a night thing. They'd like to sell-out season tickets to every spot. I'm under the impression that a big name star allows people to say "whoa he's our guy" which allows more and more to become entertained with the Nashville Predators. Though I do agree with your point about not buying into the team. If they don't want to be a part of the team effort, they can find it elsewhere. Ultimately though, I think they are part of the team it's just that the relationship is give and take and right now the Preds are in a rare spot where they can give something to the players which in return could bring us home a Cup. I think we should take the gamble, but I can see where many would agree it's not like us to do something like that.

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02-07-2012, 06:35 PM
  #41
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like btn said, the right answer is, "go for it" if a "go for it" type player is available... otherwise, get rentals... do not do nothing
I can't agree with this. Doing nothing is a legitimate deadline option if the front office thinks it can't add a piece that won't make them any better.

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02-07-2012, 06:35 PM
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Go after a big fish in free agency.
Once you make it to Free Agency you aren't just bidding against teams who think they're going to make the playoffs, everyone is bidding on the player. I think we'd get some nicer contracts with this and stay away from bidding wars in free agency.

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02-07-2012, 06:38 PM
  #43
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In response to Predwings' post, I don't think the the "don't do well in the playoffs" is an option. I think if we do poorly in the playoffs, Suter will be gone, regardless of who we bring in. If Suter goes, I think Weber is gone as well, unless we could also bring a top D-man to replace Suter.

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02-07-2012, 06:41 PM
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I can't agree with this. Doing nothing is a legitimate deadline option if the front office thinks it can't add a piece that won't make them any better.
Agree. It's a flat out myth that not doing something at the deadline is going to keep you from contention. It's the sexy thing to do but it doesn't even come close to guaranteeing anything. All it does it give off the vibe that you "tried" because you made a move. Not making a deal, at least one that gets peoples' attention, is in fact a strategic move that can happen. I know people are going to think this sounds stupid but it's true.

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02-07-2012, 06:56 PM
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Some really good posts on here concerning this topic.

What type of player is going to be a free agent after this season that we have a legit shot at getting that was not available before this season?

I am on the go for it now without being reckless about it. We have been to the playoffs a lot lately. Some people like me are tired of just being good for now and for years to come and making the playoffs.

1st goal should be to knock Detroit off of the throne and win the central.

2nd goal should be to have a team that can go toe to toe with San Jose and the Canucks on any night.

What moves to make to meet those goals i do not know. I hope Poile and the team can figure it out.

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02-07-2012, 07:03 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by VFL615 View Post
Some really good posts on here concerning this topic.

What type of player is going to be a free agent after this season that we have a legit shot at getting that was not available before this season?

I am on the go for it now without being reckless about it. We have been to the playoffs a lot lately. Some people like me are tired of just being good for now and for years to come and making the playoffs.

1st goal should be to knock Detroit off of the throne and win the central.

2nd goal should be to have a team that can go toe to toe with San Jose and the Canucks on any night.

What moves to make to meet those goals i do not know. I hope Poile and the team can figure it out.
http://www.mynhltraderumors.com/2011...-unrestricted/

Just has all the UFAs at seasons end. Most of those will either be signed or traded before then. So even though it's a list...you need to wait till after the season to see who will really be up to be bid on. Then when you get there..there is definitely going to be some overblown contracts.

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02-07-2012, 07:47 PM
  #47
gopreds19
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Anyone who thinks we need to go for it needs to watch how we play vs the Canucks and Flyers, not how we play vs the Blues.

Elite teams simply out skill and we likely lose if we don't get amazing goaltending like we don't have tonight, and didn't have vs Philly.

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02-07-2012, 07:53 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by gopreds19 View Post
Anyone who thinks we need to go for it needs to watch how we play vs the Canucks and Flyers, not how we play vs the Blues.

Elite teams simply out skill and we likely lose if we don't get amazing goaltending like we don't have tonight, and didn't have vs Philly.
Totally agree. If Pekka is off we lose. Example tonight several good chances but do not have that skill guy to finish. Only goal a lucky one by Wilson.

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02-07-2012, 08:09 PM
  #49
Roman Yoshi
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I think with Weber and Suter unsure about their commitment to the franchise for the future, you gotta try to win now with two of the best three defensemen on your team for this possible last year...

I hate to say this, but this is what I repeatedly said I had heard over the summer as to why Weber didn't re-sign. I feel like if we don't go big at the trade deadline or if we don't have a long playoff run, I fear we are going to lose Suter and then Weber.

Again, maybe this is pure conjecture on my part, but I don't see how selling some of the farm hurts our chances for the future. Sure, we lose guys like Blum, Lindback etc, but if there is one thing this franchise does its DRAFT well rounded, good players. I have more faith in our scouting department, than I do about keeping Suter and Weber if moves are not made.

I also don't see how adding a guy like carter or ryan or whoever hurts our future? If anything I think it helps our future.

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02-07-2012, 10:40 PM
  #50
wadesworld
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VFL615 View Post
Totally agree. If Pekka is off we lose. Example tonight several good chances but do not have that skill guy to finish. Only goal a lucky one by Wilson.
By the same token, Vancouver had at least 2 goals averted by lucky plays, so it goes both ways.

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