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Maybe Signing Ales Hemsky Isn't Such A Bad Idea

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Old
02-13-2012, 09:00 AM
  #1
fuhr
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Maybe Signing Ales Hemsky Isn't Such A Bad Idea

As we get closer to the deadline, I am starting to change my mind on this one. Replacing what Hemsky brings to the table may be far more difficult to replace then some think. Have a look and let me know your thoughts.

Thanks

Edmonton - February 13, 2012 - Back in late November, I wrote a piece titled "The Risk In Moving Ales Hemsky" which focused on the challenges the organization faced with what to do with the talented forward. They could have looked to move him then, when they desperately needed help elsewhere, consider re-signing him or wait until the deadline to make the move. While the scnerio surrounding the club is a little different then it was in the November, the time to finally make the decision is almost hand. With the NHL Trade Deadline now two weeks away, I have to ask the question. Does re-signing Ales Hemsky make sense for the Edmonton Oilers?


http://www.ourhometown.ca/sports/RS0135.php


Last edited by fuhr: 02-13-2012 at 11:52 AM.
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02-13-2012, 09:12 AM
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joestevens29
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It all comes down to the contract itself.

We all know that Hemsky's skill set is going to be hard to replace, at the same time you can't afford to go out and give him a long-term contract.

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02-13-2012, 09:13 AM
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TheBusDriver
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Of course it would be better to have him than not but I dont think he wants to play here anymore, at least not for the term/$ wed want to sign him to.

The guy can be a PPG player but misses at least 20 games a year. If we can get a decent def prospect/young NHLer for him, I think its worth it to move him.

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02-13-2012, 09:26 AM
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MisterD
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Omark should easily be able to replace Hemsky's laziness and give aways.

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02-13-2012, 09:39 AM
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How about just posting your thoughts here instead of making us go to some blog site?


Last edited by Live in the Now: 02-13-2012 at 06:27 PM. Reason: ...
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02-13-2012, 09:44 AM
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thadd
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I'm not going off-site to read that. Maybe you could actually copy it.

Anyhow it would be a nightmare if Hemsky resigned.

Whenever he plays well he takes risks and ultimately misses 20+ games per year.
Whenever he doesn't play well he stays healthy and he looks like a 4th liner without a physical edge out there.

The only good things about resigning him:

1: It would probably be cheap.
2: Gives us more time to develop Magnus, Omark and Pitlick.
3: That is all.

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02-13-2012, 09:46 AM
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joestevens29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hope4theFuture View Post
Omark should easily be able to replace Hemsky's laziness and give aways.
If that's all we are looking to replace I'd sign Penner, at least I can understand him and he has some great quotes.

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02-13-2012, 09:49 AM
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OneMoreAstronaut
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I have thought of a reply but you'll have to visit my blog to read it.

I swear, some day, forums will just be links to everybody's blog, and conversations will all take part on different blogs that were referenced on some forum. That way, everybody gets paid for writing what should have just been a damn forum post.


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02-13-2012, 09:55 AM
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Jepprey
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I don't want to give up on Hemsky, but I see two ways that I don't mind him coming back..

1. Cheap. 2-3 years. hometown discount. low risk. Don't lose him on low value trade this deadline. Gives another development year for potential cheaper replacements such as prospects. (kids needing re-ups at end of contract).

2. 1 year tryout. kind of a kick in the balls for him maybe, but he hasn't produced lately and if he wants to stay, try him out on a 1 year contract to see if he can produce again. Let's face it, he's not the face anymore. Also, not the #1 RW anymore. Let's see how his pride.

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02-13-2012, 09:57 AM
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guymez
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The issue with trading Hemsky is that the Oilers do not have anyone who can replace him. Omark would be a fail...he might look barley passable against the other teams lesser players but he would be an absolute non factor against the other teams best players.

I get that Hemsky is a big hit away from a shoulder injury but I think they should keep him. There is simply no value in trading him because the team is so weak in terms of secondary scoring. There is little to no need to acquire a 2nd round draft pick and receive a player who will likely never play an NHL game much less turn out as good as Hemsky.
The reality...this is a situation where Tambo needs to manage assets correctly so based on that he will surely make the wrong choice and trade Hemsky.
I am almost certain thats how it will play out.

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02-13-2012, 09:59 AM
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Neilio
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There is a 90% chance that we lose any deal we make for him, IMO. The best case scenario sounds like we lose a real NHLer for magic beans that may or may not turn into anything within 3 or 4 years. But in the meantime, we get less skilled, less experienced, and Eberle is the only player on the right side that any team needs to target.

My options would be to sign him to a reasonable contract that wouldn't make him impossible to trade *Horcoff* in the future. Or trade him for an actual RH RWer, like Drew Stafford or someone.

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02-13-2012, 10:05 AM
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I'm OK with it as long as he realizes that he is a much different player than the one that signed his current contract. Short term, much less than what he's making now.

I do think that some team will get desperate in the last hours of the trade deadline and offer enough for Tambellini to pull the trigger.

I also think that Omark's play between now and then will factor into Stevie's decision. He's looking pretty good so far after missing a lot of games.

However, replacing Hemsky with Omark is a huge risk. Like another poster said, it's about managing assets. We'll see what happens. I'm still in the minority of people that would like to see them bring Penner back this summer.

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02-13-2012, 10:05 AM
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The Oilers are in a really tough spot because if they sit on their hands or wait and try to resign him to a short term deal they run the very real risk of losing him to a team with cap space (Florida/NYI?) that offers him what he will want. If the Oilers offer another 4+ year deal then the contract becomes an issue when we have to resign the younger players (especially if he's always injured or not 100%). If they trade him, like others have mentioned, there is no replacement ready and the returns likely won't have an impact for years if at all.

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02-13-2012, 10:07 AM
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Bryanbryoil
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He needs to go period. Hemsky's production as it stands right now is easily replaced by next season. We need a durable player to add secondary offense, Hemsky is not that player. Move him for a prospect/young NHLer that we highly covet and a pick and be done with it.

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02-13-2012, 10:07 AM
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I don't like the idea of selling EXTREMELY low on a player that is probably just having an off year. The amount of games Hemsky has played from year to year hasn't been consistent but we've always known what we were going to get from him when he was healthy. About a 0.95 ppg. We've watched him for years and we know what the real Ales Hemsky looks like. If/When he bounces back next season, he's going to be a huge boost to this team...and it will likely be at a very reasonable cap hit since his agent doesn't have a ton of leverage in negotiations at the moment.

Someone is going to get a 1st line player for 2nd line money this summer.

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02-13-2012, 10:11 AM
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Bryanbryoil
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Perfect example of how easily replaced this version of Ales Hemsky is:

Ales Hemsky '11-12 42gp. 4-20-24 -14
Linus Omark '10-11 51gp. 5-22-27 -16

Move him for what you can and bring up Omark until you can find a better replacement (assuming that Omark doesn't come in and claim a spot).

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02-13-2012, 10:11 AM
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fuhr
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guymez View Post
I get that Hemsky is a big hit away from a shoulder injury but I think they should keep him. There is simply no value in trading him because the team is so weak in terms of secondary scoring. There is little to no need to acquire a 2nd round draft pick and receive a player who will likely never play an NHL game much less turn out as good as Hemsky.
The funny thing IS, all of us know how good he is but in the last few days I actually started to think what it would take to replace him and is it worth the risk? Most UFA's are flops and they know what they have in Ales. With no one currently signed after the 13/14 season but Horcoff, they should be able to decide where they want to go cap wise and deal with Horcoff's cap hit in the final year or two, if need be.

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02-13-2012, 10:14 AM
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Wheatking
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Perfect example of how easily replaced this version of Ales Hemsky is:

Ales Hemsky '11-12 42gp. 4-20-24 -14
Linus Omark '10-11 51gp. 5-22-27 -16

Move him for what you can and bring up Omark until you can find a better replacement (assuming that Omark doesn't come in and claim a spot).
I don't care about this version of Hemsky. I'm more concerned about next season's version. My gut says it will look a lot more like the player we saw from 2005-2010.

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02-13-2012, 10:14 AM
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Bryanbryoil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
I don't like the idea of selling EXTREMELY low on a player that is probably just having an off year. The amount of games Hemsky has played from year to year hasn't been consistent but we've always known what we were going to get from him when he was healthy. About a 0.95 ppg. We've watched him for years and we know what the real Ales Hemsky looks like. If/When he bounces back next season, he's going to be a huge boost to this team...and it will likely be at a very reasonable cap hit since his agent doesn't have a ton of leverage in negotiations at the moment.

Someone is going to get a 1st line player for 2nd line money this summer.
He wouldn't be the first player around his age to have a significant drop off in production. You cannot bank on him returning to that level when you're going to have to open the bank vaults just to see whether or not he can. Boyes, Samsonov, Penner, Kariya, Heatley, etc. lots of guys games took a nose dive in production around this point in their careers.

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02-13-2012, 10:17 AM
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Wheatking
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
He wouldn't be the first player around his age to have a significant drop off in production. You cannot bank on him returning to that level when you're going to have to open the bank vaults just to see whether or not he can. Boyes, Samsonov, Penner, Kariya, Heatley, etc. lots of guys games took a nose dive in production around this point in their careers.
It's possible that he's done a nose dive but I'm betting against it. He's just been so overwhelmingly bad this season and it's really come out of no where. I can't see Hemsky randomly turning into a soft 10 goal/40 point player over night.

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02-13-2012, 10:19 AM
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Bryanbryoil
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Originally Posted by fuhr View Post
The funny thing IS, all of us know how good he is but in the last few days I actually started to think what it would take to replace him and is it worth the risk? Most UFA's are flops and they know what they have in Ales. With no one currently signed after the 13/14 season but Horcoff, they should be able to decide where they want to go cap wise and deal with Horcoff's cap hit in the final year or two, if need be.
They have an injury prone player that plays hard some nights, dogs it on others, makes dumb decisions with the puck, and has a hard time gelling with players that aren't offensive plugs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
I don't care about this version of Hemsky. I'm more concerned about next season's version. My gut says it will look a lot more like the player we saw from 2005-2010.
Is your gut willing to pay a guy $5+ million for 5 years? A guy that might very well be on the decline that is playing by far the worst hockey in his last 5-6 years? This is not a player that you gamble on, even if he returns to form and ends up getting hurt again and again and we can only count on him for 40-60 games a year is it worth it?

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02-13-2012, 10:19 AM
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fuhr
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Perfect example of how easily replaced this version of Ales Hemsky is:

Ales Hemsky '11-12 42gp. 4-20-24 -14
Linus Omark '10-11 51gp. 5-22-27 -16

Move him for what you can and bring up Omark until you can find a better replacement (assuming that Omark doesn't come in and claim a spot).
That is an option but I don't think we can sit here and say Hemsky is a 50 point player when that has never been the case in the past. I honestly think this is just a down year and he will rebound. That being said, the injuries are obviously a huge concern. Either way, I want Omark up here for the final twenty games and see what he can do playing with good players. It's unfortunate he got hurt when he did as he surely would have could a shot earlier in the season to play with other skilled players.

Plus I am not sold on Paajarvi being a lock as a top six forward

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02-13-2012, 10:21 AM
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Imo they should resign him to a short contract at a reasonable price if they can. Absolutely no long-term contract, but a trade at this year's deadline would lead to a poor return.

Try to resign for 2-3 years and hope he returns to form.

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02-13-2012, 10:23 AM
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Bryanbryoil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
It's possible that he's done a nose dive but I'm betting against it. He's just been so overwhelmingly bad this season and it's really come out of no where. I can't see Hemsky randomly turning into a soft 10 goal/40 point player over night.
We'd have to pay him like a 60-70 point player and there's a chance that he never hits that mark again. No more top PP time for Ales, no more watching him hold onto the puck trying to force passes as our primary weapon on the PP, this will negatively effect his ability to return to the numbers that he has reached in the past. I understand that you have a gut feeling on this, and it maybe right. The problem is that if we gamble on him and we lose, we are ****ed. That would be roughly $11 million in cap invested in Hemsky and Horcoff, that's enough to cripple our dreams of winning the cup IMO.

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02-13-2012, 10:25 AM
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How will we ever replace a guy that coughs up the puck and doesn't give a ****? It'll be tough but I am sure we can manage.

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