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Where did the offense go?

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Old
01-28-2012, 01:00 AM
  #1
EastonBlues22
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Where did the offense go?

The methodology for this post is simple. For each of the team's top 12 forwards and top 6 defensemen, subtract each player's 82 game scoring pace (goals) from this year's 82 game pace. Note the difference for each player, then sum it for the team to get a ROUGH estimate of how they might be capable of performing moving forward (simply based on what they've actually done in the past). Obviously, some of the vets are on the downside of their career...for Arnott, Langenbrunner I'm just going to arbitrarily assume that their current paces this year are representative of what should be expected (by throwing out their career averages).

Backes: 27 - 23 = +4
Oshie: 24 - 21 = +3
Arnott: 21 - *21 = *0
Steen: 30 - 19 = +11
Pietrangelo: 14 - 11 = +3
Shattenkirk: 10 - 10 = 0
Stewart: 18 - 27 = -9
Berglund: 20 - 20 = 0
Langenbrunner: 5 - *5 = *0
D'Agostini: 15 - 16 = -1
Perron: 14 - 18 = -4
Colaiacovo: 2 - 7 = -5
Sobotka: 4 -5 = -1
Polak: 0 - 2 = -2
Jackman: 0 - 3 = -3
Russell: 10 - 6 = +4
Nichol: 3 - 6 = -3
Crombeen: 6 - 8 = -2
Totals: 223 - 228 = -5
*Note the lack of McDonald in the above list!

Actual goal pace totals for team projected over 82 games: 123/205*82 = 206 goals (2.51 G/G). Based off that, you can surmise that injuries have cost the Blues about 10 (223-206=17; 17/82*49) goals so far this season. If you replace Crombeen with McDonald career average (22G/82GP), then that number is 20 goals. That would have put them on pace about 2.91 G/G...good for #9 in the league, currently.

Overall, some players are down and some players are up, but the team isn't *that* far off from what might be reasonably expected from them based on my above criteria...about 3 goals below par as a cumulative group so far this season. If they were performing to their career averages, the team would be at 2.78 G/G without McDonald.

Combine a healthy team with one that's performing to their career averages, and you have a 2.98 G/G team.

TL; DR: Injuries (especially McDonald's) have affected this team much more than underperfoming has. Simply getting healthy is likely to have a significant impact on the offense over the long run. (Obviously, a case can be made against McDonald staying healthy, but that's a discussion for a different thread.) Although a case can be made that the team might get a overall boost from simple regression back to each individual player's career averages, that boost would appear to be a relatively insignificant one. When healthy, a case can easily be made this team has the talent baseline to be a top 10 offense in the league (as they were last year). That's no guarantee of results moving forward, but it's something to keep in mind when gauging the "desperation level" of addressing our current goal scoring ability.

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01-28-2012, 02:10 AM
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rumrokh
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Yea, I really don't have a problem with their scoring right now. At times they aren't playing up to their offensive potential at even strength, but mostly, they're not getting it done on the powerplay. I think that's system and confidence more than skill and it will come.

Starting in February last year, the Blues climbed ridiculously, from a bottom-half team to a top 10 scoring team. They may not do the same this year, but they've been getting their chances and not getting discouraged when they don't pan out. The playoffs are a different animal. As long as they can get something going in the post-season, that's all I care about.

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01-28-2012, 03:06 PM
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The Blues lack high-end skill up front, in part due to injury, but it's as simple as that. That's why they don't do well on the PP or in shootouts. Our most talented forwards IMO are McDonald, Oshie, and Perron. Two of the three have had injuries that are hampering their performance. But, even when healthy, the Blues don't have the skill that other teams do up front.

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01-28-2012, 11:01 PM
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Blanick
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I think with Steen and McDonald coming back our offense will pick up. I got a feeling that Berglund is going to be 2nd half player kinda like Backes was early in his career and pick it up. If you look at him his goal total is not that bad but his assist are not good for a 2nd line center which I think can be partially attributed to Stewart's play.

For this playoff run I wouldn't mind if we "stand pat" or make some minor trades then maybe trade Stewart after the season is over. Then make a strong run at James Neal, I know he is a RFA but he is the type of player you give up a 1st and 3rd for.

I know its probably a pipe dream but Neal is one of my favorite players not on the Blues.

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01-29-2012, 02:00 AM
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rumrokh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blanick View Post
I think with Steen and McDonald coming back our offense will pick up. I got a feeling that Berglund is going to be 2nd half player kinda like Backes was early in his career and pick it up. If you look at him his goal total is not that bad but his assist are not good for a 2nd line center which I think can be partially attributed to Stewart's play.

For this playoff run I wouldn't mind if we "stand pat" or make some minor trades then maybe trade Stewart after the season is over. Then make a strong run at James Neal, I know he is a RFA but he is the type of player you give up a 1st and 3rd for.

I know its probably a pipe dream but Neal is one of my favorite players not on the Blues.
Yea, that is a complete pipe dream. Neal gets to play with Malkin. Even overpayment almost certainly won't lure him out of Pittsburgh.

Stewart has improved steadily, and if he gets on a hot streak anytime between now and the end of the playoffs, fans will be justifiably frustrated at his inconsistency, but they won't want to trade him anymore. Plus, it just means that he won't sign for much and the Blues will be able to spend that money elsewhere.

Honestly, with Stewart, I think the powerplay is just as much the reason for his struggle as anything. And it's not a matter of, "Stewart's bad, so the powerplay's bad." It's a matter of, "the powerplay's bad, so Stewart doesn't get a steady diet of confidence-boosters that drive his game."

I do agree that with Steen and McDonald in the lineup, the Blues look very different. It's amazing that they've done so well without them, honestly, but a testament to how they've been built, with depth in mind. And I also agree that Berglund is not playing poorly, he's just producing poorly. Sometimes a guy can get lucky and not play that well and get points and everybody cheers for the points. Other times, a guy can be a positive force for his team, but nothing goes in for him and he's a bum. The whipping boy, scapegoating, and fair-weather fan acts are all very tiresome.

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01-29-2012, 03:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rumrokh View Post
Yea, that is a complete pipe dream. Neal gets to play with Malkin. Even overpayment almost certainly won't lure him out of Pittsburgh.

Stewart has improved steadily, and if he gets on a hot streak anytime between now and the end of the playoffs, fans will be justifiably frustrated at his inconsistency, but they won't want to trade him anymore. Plus, it just means that he won't sign for much and the Blues will be able to spend that money elsewhere.

Honestly, with Stewart, I think the powerplay is just as much the reason for his struggle as anything. And it's not a matter of, "Stewart's bad, so the powerplay's bad." It's a matter of, "the powerplay's bad, so Stewart doesn't get a steady diet of confidence-boosters that drive his game."

I do agree that with Steen and McDonald in the lineup, the Blues look very different. It's amazing that they've done so well without them, honestly, but a testament to how they've been built, with depth in mind. And I also agree that Berglund is not playing poorly, he's just producing poorly. Sometimes a guy can get lucky and not play that well and get points and everybody cheers for the points. Other times, a guy can be a positive force for his team, but nothing goes in for him and he's a bum. The whipping boy, scapegoating, and fair-weather fan acts are all very tiresome.
I agree with everything you said.
I'm hoping McDonald and Steen can get back after the break. Maybe McDonald setting up Stewart is just what he needs to wake up. And McDonald definitely can't hurt on the powerplay.

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01-29-2012, 11:38 AM
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Oberyn
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We are definitely one of the top teams in offensive zone time and scoring opportunities, we just can't bury them. I feel like our team tends to miss too many shots, or go low when they need to elevate the puck. Hitchcock should set up targets on the nets and have the players practice for one whole day.

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02-09-2012, 12:36 PM
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bleedblue1223
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Edit: Nope offense would still suck lol


Last edited by bleedblue1223: 02-09-2012 at 01:11 PM.
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02-09-2012, 12:43 PM
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Ranger482
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That's why I can't wait for Tarasenko to come over. The guy buries his opportunities!

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02-09-2012, 01:04 PM
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mmitchell19
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Originally Posted by bleedblue1223 View Post
I was curious of how much our anemic powerplay was affecting our goals per game. If we had a PP that scored at 18%, which would be comparable to last season of 18.6% and 18% would also put us in the middle of the league. At 18%, we would have gotten an extra 32 goals off of our 176 PP opportunists. Those 32 goals would push our goals per game up to 3.08, which would make us among the elite offensively.

Whether it's McDonald and Steen returning, Bennett being relieved of his duties, a completely revamped PP, or adding a player to help the PP, we must improve the PP and we will become serious, legit Cup contenders.

Another interesting stat is our 5 on 5 offense has scored 89 goals, which ranks tied for 20th.

If Steen and McDonald come back, more specifically McDonald, I think it is realistic that would could have an elite offense for the rest of the season and more importantly in the playoffs. If Stewart or Berglund regain their form, we will have a top offense again.

Either way, I think it is a simple as fix the powerplay and we fix our problems. If only it was that simple though.
Are you sure we'd have 32 extra goals with an 18% powerplay? Or would we have 32 instead of the number of PP goals we currently have (low 20's)?

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02-09-2012, 01:10 PM
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bleedblue1223
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Originally Posted by mmitchell19 View Post
Are you sure we'd have 32 extra goals with an 18% powerplay? Or would we have 32 instead of the number of PP goals we currently have (low 20's)?

Crap lol, I've been studying way too long, so we would be averaging 2.63 goals instead.

In conclusion, our offense would still be mediocre, even with an improved powerplay. We really need McDonald back.

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02-09-2012, 01:28 PM
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You are forgetting that Stewart has the ability to score 35+ goals in a season, and he is taking a huge step back this year.

He was one of the most natural power forward goal scorers I've seen in a while when he was with Colorado, think he scored like 23 goals in 23 games or something at one point.

He really needs to evaluate himself here, or maybe he's being utilized in an incorrect way?

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02-09-2012, 01:33 PM
  #13
bleedblue1223
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Originally Posted by Crossbar Ping View Post
You are forgetting that Stewart has the ability to score 35+ goals in a season, and he is taking a huge step back this year.

He was one of the most natural power forward goal scorers I've seen in a while when he was with Colorado, think he scored like 23 goals in 23 games or something at one point.

He really needs to evaluate himself here, or maybe he's being utilized in an incorrect way?
I'm just hoping he is having a year like Marleau had in 07-08.

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