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So.. the NW division sucks..

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Old
02-07-2012, 10:57 PM
  #1
eklunds source
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So.. the NW division sucks..

Just out of curiosity of seeing the actual numbers, I put together a quick bit of info on the opposition in the NW. This just in: they're terrible. Even worse than what the standings look like...

...and in all likelihood, each team in the NW will end up with a worse record than they're on pace for at the moment for varying reasons.



With a shootout win tonight, Vancouver climbs to 71 points with 29 games to go. The Canucks could go 10-16-3 to close the season and still have a 58% chance of winning the Northwest. It's the first week of February and barring a disastrous collapse combined with a monster surge from the Wild/Flames/Avalanche, the division is all but locked up. That's ridiculous.



The Wild are 5-13-5 in their last 23 games.. Their hot start has evaporated because their numbers were never good. They had much-better-than-Tim-Thomas goaltending for the first 2 months of the season, and there's no way that was going to last. They did take a hit to the roster through injuries, but even fully healthy, they're not a good team.


The Flames are 24-22-7, but their record is a bit of a mirage when you consider 11 of those 24 wins have been against the Wild/Oilers/Avalanche. Outside of the NW, they're 12-19-7, a 67 point pace.


Not only do the Avalanche have a 16-23-3 record against the West (only buoyed by a strong record vs. the East), but their record is also propped up by being 7-1 in shootouts. Leaguewide, here's where their R/OT wins rank:

22nd-23rd, Minnesota, Carolina, 20
24th-25th, Colorado, Montreal, 19
26th-29th, Islanders, Sabres, Oilers, Ducks, 18


Fantastic October (much like the Wild) that was completely unsustainable. Khabibulin went 7-0-2 with a 0.962 save percentage to start the year, and since then has been under 0.900. Not coincidentally, the Oilers are 12-24-3 since early November. The team is marginally improved over last year at best.


The result, leaguewide... Here is a list of teams who have picked up less than half the available points from the Northwest:

Los Angeles (11 points / 12 games)
Washington (2 points / 4 games)
Montreal (2 points / 4 games)
New Jersey (2 points / 4 games)



As a result, Vancouver's record is probably a bit of a mirage (11-3 versus the Northwest), although they are still 8-5-2 vs the Central (98pt pace) and 6-3-2 vs the Pacific (104pt pace). At the end of the year, when people say Vancouver is no good, their record is only because of a weak division... they'll be at least partially right...

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02-07-2012, 10:59 PM
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John Swartzwelder
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is this good or bad

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02-07-2012, 11:00 PM
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So.. Let's win a cup before it gets better..

PLEASE

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02-07-2012, 11:08 PM
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threads like these must just devastate the flames/oiler lurkers lol

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02-07-2012, 11:18 PM
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Southeast and Pacific are pretty bad this year too.

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02-07-2012, 11:25 PM
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I remember when it seemed like such an accomplishment to win the division title, now it's just a given. Oh well, this sort of thing goes in cycles.

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02-07-2012, 11:35 PM
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The Canucks have an easy schedule and keep picking up wins.

I will give 10 to 1 odds on $500 to anyone who wants to bet against the Canucks winning their division.

The Cancuks have 20 games to right the ship, if anyone knows the Canucks history, going to a top 5 team in the NHL while playing mediocre hockey is gravy.

we bicker over getting a 5 - 6 D man or improving our bottom 6. 4 year fans annoy us 40 year fans.

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02-07-2012, 11:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eklunds source View Post
Just out of curiosity of seeing the actual numbers, I put together a quick bit of info on the opposition in the NW. This just in: they're terrible. Even worse than what the standings look like...

...and in all likelihood, each team in the NW will end up with a worse record than they're on pace for at the moment for varying reasons.



With a shootout win tonight, Vancouver climbs to 71 points with 29 games to go. The Canucks could go 10-16-3 to close the season and still have a 58% chance of winning the Northwest. It's the first week of February and barring a disastrous collapse combined with a monster surge from the Wild/Flames/Avalanche, the division is all but locked up. That's ridiculous.



The Wild are 5-13-5 in their last 23 games.. Their hot start has evaporated because their numbers were never good. They had much-better-than-Tim-Thomas goaltending for the first 2 months of the season, and there's no way that was going to last. They did take a hit to the roster through injuries, but even fully healthy, they're not a good team.


The Flames are 24-22-7, but their record is a bit of a mirage when you consider 11 of those 24 wins have been against the Wild/Oilers/Avalanche. Outside of the NW, they're 12-19-7, a 67 point pace.


Not only do the Avalanche have a 16-23-3 record against the West (only buoyed by a strong record vs. the East), but their record is also propped up by being 7-1 in shootouts. Leaguewide, here's where their R/OT wins rank:

22nd-23rd, Minnesota, Carolina, 20
24th-25th, Colorado, Montreal, 19
26th-29th, Islanders, Sabres, Oilers, Ducks, 18


Fantastic October (much like the Wild) that was completely unsustainable. Khabibulin went 7-0-2 with a 0.962 save percentage to start the year, and since then has been under 0.900. Not coincidentally, the Oilers are 12-24-3 since early November. The team is marginally improved over last year at best.


The result, leaguewide... Here is a list of teams who have picked up less than half the available points from the Northwest:

Los Angeles (11 points / 12 games)
Washington (2 points / 4 games)
Montreal (2 points / 4 games)
New Jersey (2 points / 4 games)



As a result, Vancouver's record is probably a bit of a mirage (11-3 versus the Northwest), although they are still 8-5-2 vs the Central (98pt pace) and 6-3-2 vs the Pacific (104pt pace). At the end of the year, when people say Vancouver is no good, their record is only because of a weak division... they'll be at least partially right...
Thanks for this, I really enjoyed the breakdown. I don't think it says much about the Canucks though - we have a winning record against everyone who counts, and we should be beating up on the division anyhow.

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02-08-2012, 12:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eklunds source View Post

Fantastic October (much like the Wild) that was completely unsustainable. Khabibulin went 7-0-2 with a 0.962 save percentage to start the year, and since then has been under 0.900. Not coincidentally, the Oilers are 12-24-3 since early November. The team is marginally improved over last year at best.
but but but at the beginning of the season Oilers fans said...

(okay they said a lot of LOL worthy things)

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02-08-2012, 02:12 AM
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Remember when it's basically given that the Avs win the division and then make major runs for the Cup?
Well, that's the current Canucks for you.

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02-08-2012, 02:29 AM
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Yep, always thought the Canucks were a very good, not historically elite team.

Still think that...hopefully the easier regular season helps us stay fresh for the playoffs.

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02-08-2012, 02:41 AM
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JoeCool16
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And then there's the SW division...

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02-08-2012, 03:00 AM
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And then there's the SW division...
Southeast?

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02-08-2012, 04:14 AM
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I agree that the NW division stinks but at the same time it`s important to note that it really doesn`t make a big difference in the standings. We play 8 more game against this division compared to the other teams in the conference but each division has at least one really ****** team. The central has CBJ and the pacific has Anaheim and both Dallas and Phoenix haven`t exactly been significantly better then the teams in this division either.

So when it`s all said and done you`ve got 6 games against the 2nd-4th best teams in this division while a team like Detroit has 6 games against St. Louis, Chicago and Nashville. Assuming they go 3-3 in those games and we go 5-1 in those games then really all you`ve got is a 4 point difference which over 82 games just isn`t that big of a difference.

Factor in the travel that this team has to go through just to play teams in it`s division and I think it evens out but those who suggest that the Canucks are only as good as they are because of the division really need to understand that at best we`re looking at a 2-4 point difference over an 82 game season.

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02-08-2012, 04:24 AM
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Jason MacIsaac
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NJ always has fits against the NW, I'm not sure why. Calgary and Minnesota had no business beating us, we ran into ridiculous goaltending. Colorado was the only team to out play us I believe. When do we play you guys in NJ?

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02-08-2012, 05:17 AM
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Our wins are padded, but all we need to do is win.

Curious, what are the records with other teams in the west like? At most we're getting 2 more wins out of this... but if its fairly uniform (they're all getting wins) then I'll concede OP's point .

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02-08-2012, 05:47 AM
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....


Last edited by Hammer79: 02-22-2012 at 03:18 AM.
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02-08-2012, 07:46 AM
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I'll agree, the Canucks may have very slightly inflated numbers due to playing in the terrible NW but rarely are any of those games easy to pick up the W.
Every one of those teams seems to bring their A'game most night against the Nucks. Not sure what happens to them the rest of the season, but they are no pushovers most nights when they are looking for divisional points

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02-08-2012, 08:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billvanseattle View Post
The Canucks have an easy schedule and keep picking up wins.

I will give 10 to 1 odds on $500 to anyone who wants to bet against the Canucks winning their division.

The Cancuks have 20 games to right the ship, if anyone knows the Canucks history, going to a top 5 team in the NHL while playing mediocre hockey is gravy.

we bicker over getting a 5 - 6 D man or improving our bottom 6. 4 year fans annoy us 40 year fans.

You are going to have to offer better odds if you plan on getting action. I'd give 30 to 1, on 500$ that the Canucks win the division.

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02-08-2012, 08:59 AM
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eklunds source
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The Canucks are still 22-12-5 outside of the NW division, .628 points %, and are 8-5-2 against the tough central divison.

The Pacific isn't much better than the NW. Their division leader would be in 7th, but with 4 games in hand so that's a bit of an illusion. LA is only 4 points up on the Wild and have played one more game. Anaheim and Edmonton are equally bad. Dallas and Calgary is arguably also a wash. Colorado and Phoenix are pretty much a wash as well.

SJ 64
LA 62
Ph 58
Dallas 56
Ana 48
Total: 288 pts in 262 games 0.550 pt%

Van 71
Min 58
Col 57
Cal 55
Edm 47
Total: 288 pts in 267 games 0.539 pt%

Yes, the NW is bad, but the Pacific is too.
If you want to compare divisional strength, you can't use the teams' total record.. What if every NW game went to extra time (3pt game) and every Pacific game didn't? That would hugely inflate the stats. What if the NW has played very few divisional games, and the Pacific has played a lot? When two divisional teams meet, only 1 can take 2 points, when they play outside the division, in theory every game could be worth 2 points to each team.

I'll compare the records a little bit later (combining Pacific teams' record against East/NW/Central with the NW's record against Pacific/Central/East).. It probably won't make much of a difference (Calgary and Avalanche will cancel each other out) but I'm curious myself now.



Mostly - the reasoning behind this thread - is that Calgary is a lottery team without feasting on weak NW competition, and if Min/Edm/Col were in the central they'd be lottery teams too.

Those 4 teams are probably all in the bottom 8 NHL teams in terms of true talent level. Even if these things go in cycles, right now we're at a pretty historically low point.

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02-08-2012, 10:07 AM
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The divisional advantage doesn't factor in until all the games are played. Also note that most of the divisional games are backloaded to the end of the season to create the divisional rivalry for playoff positioning.

If the Canucks start firing on all cylinders look at what March will bring: A feast on non-playoff teams for the last 18 games. I count only three against playoff teams: St. Louis, Chicago and LA.

I predict this will be a time where we can play 4 lines evenly and prepare playing good hockey for the playoffs while claiming first in the Western conference while the Central Division teams battle each other night in and night out, splitting points and tiring their top lines.

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02-08-2012, 10:08 AM
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Detroit is also 7-1 in the shoot-out. So what does that tell you?

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02-08-2012, 11:04 AM
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This is why we should be enjoying this while it lasts. Once Oilers fix their back end, the conference is going to get much, much more interesting.

I see Colorado still being off for another few years, however Calgary is such a weird team, they can get streaky, and if management ever figures out whether they want to make some last glory year pushes with Iginla or rebuild with the assets they bring in from a trade with him, it'd be interesting to see what they came up with.

I predict we win it again next year, however 2014/2015 will be seriously very, very interesting.

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02-08-2012, 11:55 AM
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LickTheEnvelope
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jrtu View Post
Remember when it's basically given that the Avs win the division and then make major runs for the Cup?
Well, that's the current Canucks for you.
The Avs are ALWAYS good for the first 10-15 games of the season then just fall right off. It's been that way for 3 years. Oilers similar. Flames are AWFUL in October - December then usually go on a good run Jan/Feb then collapse again in March.

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02-08-2012, 12:25 PM
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DJOpus
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpaceCowboy View Post
This is why we should be enjoying this while it lasts. Once Oilers fix their back end, the conference is going to get much, much more interesting.

I see Colorado still being off for another few years, however Calgary is such a weird team, they can get streaky, and if management ever figures out whether they want to make some last glory year pushes with Iginla or rebuild with the assets they bring in from a trade with him, it'd be interesting to see what they came up with.

I predict we win it again next year, however 2014/2015 will be seriously very, very interesting.
Re-alignment will make it interesting...once approved we'll be fighting with the three California teams for seeding.

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