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ATD 2012 - Draft Thread IV

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Old
02-09-2012, 11:34 PM
  #226
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by BM67 View Post
How many times did you use the #2, #3, #4, #5 over all seasons?
It is always the #2 for all seasons from 1927 through 1969. After that, Lemieux, Gretzky, the Orr/Epo tandem and the inflated totals of their teammates make a system that slavishly clings to #2 as though it always means the same thing, practically useless.

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How can you compare from season to season? Gretzky's 183 points in 1986-87 is 169.44% of the #2 that season, but Lemieux's 199 points in 1988-89 are 173.04% of the #5 that season. Is that a fair comparison that shows that Lemieux in 89 was more dominant than Gretzky in 87?
I don't know. but I'm also not really concerned with what it means to the outliers. We know they're outliers and we have a good idea what their numbers mean. I am much more concerned what it means for everyone from Mikita down to players selected in the MLD.

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How many people have your spreadsheet? I see several people trying to use your method, but I don't see anybody using your numbers.
Nobody. I rarely volunteer sheets but I always give to those who ask. TDMM posts similar numbers on a regular basis. He removes outliers on a logical basis too. His system and mine are likely 95% congruent.

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I see seasons with a change of over 10% between the #10 scorers totals from season to season even in the dead puck era. I really don't have a problem seeing the same thing at the top.

Straight #2 gives the #10 an average of 79.51% and the #20 an average of 70.56% over the last 25 seasons. I see that as a fairly reasonable average, so I don't feel that the system is broken by a couple of strange years that can be noted and commented on individually.
I don't want to note and comment on them individually! What's the point of that? We want something we can quickly refer to that spits out numbers that make sense.

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02-09-2012, 11:53 PM
  #227
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
It really is strange though because Keats' goalscoring stats are very good (and the anecdotes don't talk about then) while his playmaking stats are also... merely very good (but probably not Neely as good as the anecdotes which rave about then).
I know I read one thing that said his shot wasn't that noteworthy.

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02-10-2012, 02:36 AM
  #228
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On the subject of comparisons, I think Paul Thompson was pretty much the Patrik Elias of his era. Extremely similar team situations, playing styles and results.

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02-10-2012, 03:14 AM
  #229
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Raptor selects the Diesel, Doug Mohns.

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02-10-2012, 06:28 AM
  #230
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
On the subject of comparisons, I think Paul Thompson was pretty much the Patrik Elias of his era. Extremely similar team situations, playing styles and results.
I agree with that statement. I think I would give an offensive edge to Thompson though, although Elias as been written as Hossa's and Alfredsson's equal, and I wouldn't give an O edge over those two guys, so I'm confuse!

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Raptor selects the Diesel, Doug Mohns.
I thought it was one of the better selection by 'Thatguy' last draft. 188 might have been half a round early, but he's great value at this point. Kelly, Clapper, Taylor are all players that successfully played forward and defence, but you wouldn't primarily use them in any other position than D, D and F, but Mohns, although obviously far from their level, is someone I believe just as effective as an LW or a D, and can play both role just as effectively.

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02-10-2012, 06:33 AM
  #231
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Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
I agree with that statement. I think I would give an offensive edge to Thompson though, although Elias as been written as Hossa's and Alfredsson's equal, and I wouldn't give an O edge over those two guys, so I'm confuse!
Elias' Vs2 scoring numbers are extremely similar to Hossa's, and Elias has been pretty much always the best offensive player on his line, which is not true of the other guys. You are probably just underestimating Elias' offensive production. I agree with Devil that the comparison between Elias, Alfie and Hossa is extremely close. I think Paul Thompson fits right into this category, and is the most similar to Elias (both were the best forward for a long time on defensive teams, balanced playmaking/goalscoring, etc.).

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02-10-2012, 06:38 AM
  #232
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Elias' Vs2 scoring numbers are extremely similar to Hossa's, and Elias has been pretty much always the best offensive player on his line, which is not true of the other guys. You are probably just underestimating Elias' offensive production. I agree with Devil that the comparison between Elias, Alfie and Hossa is extremely close. I think Paul Thompson fits right into this category, and is the most similar to Elias (both were the best forward for a long time on defensive teams, balanced playmaking/goalscoring, etc.).
Fair enough, I probably am. *Caugh* would love to see Vs2 numbers of Elias against Hossa and Alfredsson when I'll return from work *caugh*

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02-10-2012, 06:44 AM
  #233
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
On the subject of comparisons, I think Paul Thompson was pretty much the Patrik Elias of his era. Extremely similar team situations, playing styles and results.
I think that both were good picks around now.

I was considering Thompson last pick and would have definitely taken him next pick if he was still available.

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Old
02-10-2012, 07:03 AM
  #234
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Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
Fair enough, I probably am. *Caugh* would love to see Vs2 numbers of Elias against Hossa and Alfredsson when I'll return from work *caugh*
Ok, you bum. I'll just give you the best 6 seasons:

Hossa: 94, 88, 88*, 78, 77, 75 - *this season*

Alfredsson: 92, 84, 84, 79, 76, 75

Elias: 93, 87*, 81, 77, 71, 68 - *this season*

They are fairly similar, I would say. Elias' scoring longevity tails off after the 5 season mark, but he has in his favor a superior playoff record and a good deal less offensive help from his teammates.

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02-10-2012, 07:03 AM
  #235
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
I think that both were good picks around now.

I was considering Thompson last pick and would have definitely taken him next pick if he was still available.
Thompson and Elias were also two of the players I was our suiting for this pick, Thompson in particular.

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Old
02-10-2012, 07:08 AM
  #236
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I would really like to see a good bio done on Paul Thompson. I have researched him some, myself, and although he is mentioned by LOH as a two-way player, I could find nothing on his checking abilities. Nevertheless, he played for a very tight checking Blackhawks team, so I imagine was probably a fine two-way player, as well, much like Elias.

When you look at their careers and their teams, Elias and Thompson really are remarkably similar.

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02-10-2012, 07:56 AM
  #237
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Apologies. I've been at war with my computer for a little while.

Pick coming shortly.

I'll go with a master-cornerman and quality policeman with good passing ability. There's no one more suited to look after my Marcel Dionne.

LW/RW Wayne Cashman


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Old
02-10-2012, 08:07 AM
  #238
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Ok, you bum. I'll just give you the best 6 seasons:

Hossa: 94, 88, 88*, 78, 77, 75 - *this season*

Alfredsson: 92, 84, 84, 79, 76, 75

Elias: 93, 87*, 81, 77, 71, 68 - *this season*

They are fairly similar, I would say. Elias' scoring longevity tails off after the 5 season mark, but he has in his favor a superior playoff record and a good deal less offensive help from his teammates.
If you use the "if #2 is more than 10% over #3, compare to #3" method, then Elias actually gets a score of 100 for 2001 when Jagr and Sakic were way ahead of everyone else. The others get bumped up too.

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Old
02-10-2012, 08:09 AM
  #239
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
It is always the #2 for all seasons from 1927 through 1969. After that, Lemieux, Gretzky, the Orr/Epo tandem and the inflated totals of their teammates make a system that slavishly clings to #2 as though it always means the same thing, practically useless.



I don't know. but I'm also not really concerned with what it means to the outliers. We know they're outliers and we have a good idea what their numbers mean. I am much more concerned what it means for everyone from Mikita down to players selected in the MLD.



Nobody. I rarely volunteer sheets but I always give to those who ask. TDMM posts similar numbers on a regular basis. He removes outliers on a logical basis too. His system and mine are likely 95% congruent.



I don't want to note and comment on them individually! What's the point of that? We want something we can quickly refer to that spits out numbers that make sense.
So no outliers before 69. Hull & Mikita, Howe & Lindsay, the War Years, none of the great lines of the period called for any tweaking?

The #10 guy from 27-69 scored from 61-90% of the #2 guy over that period. After 69, the #10 guy scored 55-91% of #2, with only 2 seasons below the 61% mark set before 69. The #10 guy averaged 72.65% of #2 from 27-69, and 79.10% from 70-11.

Yes, I see the huge distortion where those 2 really low scores drag the average up.

Maybe the average should be higher, the #20 guy goes from 58.61% to 69.79% after all, but I highly doubt adding a 46% distortion to the 88-89* season actually arrives at a truly better number.

* The top 4 scorers of the 88-89 season are unusually far ahead of the #5 scorer. Using the #5 scorer rather than the #2 changes the score of the #10 guy from 58.33% to 85.22%.**

** This changes it from the 2nd lowest of the post-69 period to the 6th highest.***

***Yes, I see the hardship of adding a note about a season. How many times have I seen you write about how many outliers you have removed?

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02-10-2012, 10:04 AM
  #240
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
On the subject of comparisons, I think Paul Thompson was pretty much the Patrik Elias of his era. Extremely similar team situations, playing styles and results.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I would really like to see a good bio done on Paul Thompson. I have researched him some, myself, and although he is mentioned by LOH as a two-way player, I could find nothing on his checking abilities. Nevertheless, he played for a very tight checking Blackhawks team, so I imagine was probably a fine two-way player, as well, much like Elias.

When you look at their careers and their teams, Elias and Thompson really are remarkably similar.
I was going to reply with this to your first post.

Thompson probably has the better peak considering he was top-3 in scoring twice. But we know much more about Elias' defense and little about Thompson's other than LOH. I even owned him in a leafscentral ATD that I didn't do much research in, but I did scan a few Hawks books and came away empty-handed.

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Originally Posted by BM67 View Post
So no outliers before 69. Hull & Mikita, Howe & Lindsay, the War Years, none of the great lines of the period called for any tweaking?
Correct. No one was deemed to be a crazy Orr/Espo/Gretzky/Lemieux-style outlier. Do you disagree?

I did my own thing for the war years that gives more appropriate scores based on how the leading scorers tended to score against the best players who were no longer there. Again, results that make sense.

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The #10 guy from 27-69 scored from 61-90% of the #2 guy over that period. After 69, the #10 guy scored 55-91% of #2, with only 2 seasons below the 61% mark set before 69. The #10 guy averaged 72.65% of #2 from 27-69, and 79.10% from 70-11.
You realize why this is, right?

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Maybe the average should be higher, the #20 guy goes from 58.61% to 69.79% after all, but I highly doubt adding a 46% distortion to the 88-89* season actually arrives at a truly better number.
absolutely it does.

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* The top 4 scorers of the 88-89 season are unusually far ahead of the #5 scorer. Using the #5 scorer rather than the #2 changes the score of the #10 guy from 58.33% to 85.22%.**
and that's the range a #10 guy "should" be in, if you look at other "normal" seasons since then.

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** This changes it from the 2nd lowest of the post-69 period to the 6th highest.***
and that is fair. in terms of all the offensive talent in the league clicking at the same time, it is much closer to the 6th most competitive season than the 2nd least. You would have to agree.

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***Yes, I see the hardship of adding a note about a season. How many times have I seen you write about how many outliers you have removed?
How should I know? You tell me.

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02-10-2012, 10:12 AM
  #241
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Correct. No one was deemed to be a crazy Orr/Espo/Gretzky/Lemieux-style outlier. Do you disagree?
A Gordie Howe influenced Ted Lindsay scores more than 10% more than third place a few times.

I have other issues with the VS2 method for the original 6 though.

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02-10-2012, 10:22 AM
  #242
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I would really like to see a good bio done on Paul Thompson. I have researched him some, myself, and although he is mentioned by LOH as a two-way player, I could find nothing on his checking abilities. Nevertheless, he played for a very tight checking Blackhawks team, so I imagine was probably a fine two-way player, as well, much like Elias.

When you look at their careers and their teams, Elias and Thompson really are remarkably similar.
Thompson-Elias really is a good comp.

I don't have any direct quotes on Thompson's D, but I've read detailed game summaries of the 1934 playoffs. Chicago used two pairs of forwards to kill penalties. Thompson and his C, and the second line LW-C. Thompson was the sole forward defending a 5-on-3 at one point (their other top PK forward was in the box, but he was at least a top 2 option there.) And Chicago didn't use a checking line, so Thompson's line went against the other team's top lines. He would have regularly played against Bill Cook, Charlie Conacher, and other top RW's.

Again, no direct information on performance, but he was certainly used in a role with some defensive responsibilities.

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02-10-2012, 10:27 AM
  #243
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
A Gordie Howe influenced Ted Lindsay scores more than 10% more than third place a few times.

I have other issues with the VS2 method for the original 6 though.
yes, O6 and post-O6 pretty much need to be on a separate scale.

edit: OR, to normalize the results to facilitate more direct comparisons, drop down to use #3-4 more often. I dunno.

edit again: 10% isn't really Lemieux/Gretzky/Orr/Esposito territory

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02-10-2012, 10:42 AM
  #244
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My vs#2 numbers for Keats give him a yearly average of 75.7% in assists and 69% in goals. When I used the Idealized Points method from The Hockey Compendium to create his career stats I ended up with a line of 685 GP 350 G 531 A 881 Pts. So no he doesn't look like the greatest of passers, but no method can account for the assists that weren't handed out back then. Of course playmaking and passing may not be the same thing.
Are your vs 2 numbers an attempt to compare him across all leagues or just to the WCHL?

His scoring line from the Hockey Compendium makes him look like a very balanced scorer, which is I think what we decided on in the last ATD (which led poor jarek to drafting a "playmaking right wing" only to be told that wing was really a center).

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02-10-2012, 11:24 AM
  #245
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LL is around, I'll do the honourable thing and eat breakfast first.

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02-10-2012, 11:26 AM
  #246
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LL is around, I'll do the honourable thing and eat breakfast first.
Breakfasts come and go, Rene. But Hartford, "the Whale," they only beat Vancouver once, maybe twice in a lifetime.

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Old
02-10-2012, 11:35 AM
  #247
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Correct. No one was deemed to be a crazy Orr/Espo/Gretzky/Lemieux-style outlier. Do you disagree?
I don't remove outliers, but I'd figure when 3 teammates finish 1-2-3, with more than 10% between 1-2 and 3-4, that it might meet your standard.

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I did my own thing for the war years that gives more appropriate scores based on how the leading scorers tended to score against the best players who were no longer there. Again, results that make sense.
So not all vs#2 before 69 then.

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You realize why this is, right?
If I knew what "this" you were referring to, I might.

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absolutely it does.
You forgot the IMO.

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and that's the range a #10 guy "should" be in, if you look at other "normal" seasons since then.
The 3rd lowest #10 point score between the WHA merger and the Lockout in 94, should produce one of the highest vs% of the period to look "normal"?

Quote:
and that is fair. in terms of all the offensive talent in the league clicking at the same time, it is much closer to the 6th most competitive season than the 2nd least. You would have to agree.
A season with a lower than average point total at #10 & #20 should not be one of the highest scores at #10 & #20, so no I don't have to agree. If you had raised it to 68% or 75%, rather than 85%, I might buy it.

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Old
02-10-2012, 11:36 AM
  #248
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I am picking on my Bb Please pm the next gn thanks. I select D Nikolai Sologubov....hope I spelled that right

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02-10-2012, 11:40 AM
  #249
Nalyd Psycho
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The Minnesota Fighting Saints are pleased to select 249th overall, from Sept-Iles Quebec, Guy Carbonneau, C

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02-10-2012, 11:42 AM
  #250
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The Minnesota Fighting Saints are pleased to select 249th overall, from Sept-Iles Quebec, Guy Carbonneau, C
Nice pick.

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