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ATD 2012 - Draft Thread IV

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Old
02-13-2012, 02:01 PM
  #776
TheDevilMadeMe
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
I'd take Federko easily at those placings.

Especially with the massaging that needs to be done to put Sundin ahead - and of course the playoffs where Federko is an easy choice.

Neither one of them was anything to write home about defensively or physically..
What massaging is that?

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02-13-2012, 02:08 PM
  #777
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
What massaging is that?
Even removing obvious outliers like Gretzky Lemieux etc. still doesn't change the fact that the crop of forwards Sundin was racking up some of those percentages against was still worse than who Federko was competing with..

How we just turned Federko with 7 top 10 placings in assists and 5 top 10s in points against better competition into a worse offensive player than Mats Sundin (3 in goals, 1 10th in assists & 2 top 10s in points, one of them fourth to Iginla, Bertuzzi and Naslund) against poor competition is mind boggling.

Federko was behind guys like prime Gretzky, Stastny, Dionne, Lafleur, Trottier, Bossy etc. in the years he got those placings.

How many are you going to remove to get down to Bertuzzi Naslund level?

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02-13-2012, 02:09 PM
  #778
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Even removing obvious outliers like Gretzky Lemieux etc. still doesn't change the fact that the crop of forwards Sundin was racking up some of those percentages against was still worse than who Federko was competing with..

How we just turned Federko with 7 top 10 placings in assists and 5 top 10s in points against better competition into a worse offensive player than Mats Sundin (2 top 10s in points, one of them fourth to Iginla, Bertuzzi and Naslund) against poor competition is mind boggling.

Federko was behind guys like prime Gretzky, Stastny, Dionne, Lafleur, Trottier, Bossy etc. in the years he got those placings.

How many are you going to remove to get down to Bertuzzi Naslund level?
I don't see how using percentages is "massaging" the data any more than just looking at rankings.

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02-13-2012, 02:11 PM
  #779
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I don't see how using percentages is "massaging" the data any more than just looking at rankings.
The point being that obviously who those percentages and rankings are measured against is a heck of a lot more important than the number itself.

The standard was higher for Federko and he still did better.

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02-13-2012, 02:14 PM
  #780
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Neither one of them was anything to write home about defensively or physically..
Sundin was actually a very tough matchup physically, and one of the best in the league at protecting the puck down low. 6'5, 230 and strong as an ox. There were times when he would just brush defensemen off him like they were nothing on his way to the net.

Federko has his own pluses that Sundin doesn't have, but nothing I know about his size or playing style says he had anywhere near the physical presence Sundin did.


Last edited by arrbez: 02-13-2012 at 02:22 PM.
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02-13-2012, 02:16 PM
  #781
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Even removing obvious outliers like Gretzky Lemieux etc. still doesn't change the fact that the crop of forwards Sundin was racking up some of those percentages against was still worse than who Federko was competing with..

How we just turned Federko with 7 top 10 placings in assists and 5 top 10s in points against better competition into a worse offensive player than Mats Sundin (3 in goals, 1 10th in assists & 2 top 10s in points, one of them fourth to Iginla, Bertuzzi and Naslund) against poor competition is mind boggling.

Federko was behind guys like prime Gretzky, Stastny, Dionne, Lafleur, Trottier, Bossy etc. in the years he got those placings.

How many are you going to remove to get down to Bertuzzi Naslund level?
Dont need to remove players to get to those levels. In '79 Federko had lesser players than Iginal and Näslund in front of him. If we remove all those players you described he's not as impressive as Sundin. The only seasons I can give Federko the edge is 84 and 85.

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02-13-2012, 02:26 PM
  #782
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Originally Posted by jkrx View Post
Dont need to remove players to get to those levels. In '79 Federko had lesser players than Iginal and Näslund in front of him. If we remove all those players you described he's not as impressive as Sundin. The only seasons I can give Federko the edge is 84 and 85.
The point isn't that he has one hit wonder players in front of him.. the point is that he gets the #2 position set in the comparison by seventies by substantially better players than what Sundin was facing.

1979:

1 Bryan Trottier
2 Marcel Dionne
3 Guy Lafleur
4 Mike Bossy
5 xxxxxxx
6 xxxxxx
7 Denis Potvin
8 Bernie Federko

vs. 2002

Iginla
Naslund
xxxxxx
Sundin


Last edited by BraveCanadian: 02-13-2012 at 02:31 PM. Reason: stupid undrafteds and clarity
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02-13-2012, 02:29 PM
  #783
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Originally Posted by arrbez View Post
Sundin was actually a very tough matchup physically, and one of the best in the league at protecting the puck down low. 6'5, 230 and strong as an ox. There were times when he would just brush defensemen off him like they were nothing on his way to the net.

Federko has his own pluses that Sundin doesn't have, but nothing I know about his size or playing style says he had anywhere near the physical presence Sundin did.
Sundin was really big and Federko was not. Agreed.

My point was that both of them can probably count on one hand the number of hard hits they threw in their careers. Neither one of them was an intimidating physical presence at all.

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02-13-2012, 02:30 PM
  #784
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
1942: 1st out of 7 (Crawford took over as Boston's #1 defensive defenseman, an undrafted offensive-minded teammate was a 2nd Team All Star)
It should be noted that this was the season when Frank Brimsek began peaking - the season in which he was the press' pick for the hero of Boston's Cup run. In the next season, this is the kind of praise they were throwing on Brimsek:

The Calgary Herald - Dec 15, 1942:

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...g=1003,1612089

Quote:
Bruins' Brimsek gets credit for team's victories:

Boston Bruins, riding along atop the National Hockey League heap, have good reason to be thankful that Frankie Brimsek is holding down the job between the goalposts. Praise for Brimsek's goaltending ability has come from time to time from the various league coaches.

xxxxxxx of Montreal Canadiens is the latest to add his word of praise for the Bruins' goalie. Home from a two-day road tour that included a game in Boston Saturday, xxxxx said, "We outplayed the Bruins and outshot them, but we just couldn't outscore them because Frankie Brimsek was simply unbeatable."

All of which brings to mind a remark made by Boston's coach, xxxxxxx, before the present season opened. xxxxx said that Brimsek was at his peak and added "He is one of the best goalers in hockey history."
This is more very strong praise for Brimsek, who was then in his fourth consecutive all-star season, and was quite possibly (probably?) the single most dominant player in the league at the time. Remember this was the early 40's and the old stars of the 30's had waned. We question from time to time which skaters replaced them as the superstars in the NHL, and I think one of the answers to that question is that Frank Brimsek emerged as a true generational superstar in the league.

More on Brimsek...this from one of his quite possibly ill-rewarded 2nd team all-star seasons (1940-41):

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...g=4110,3160618

The Windsor Daily Star - Feb 11, 1941:

Quote:
Then, just in case you think the Boston rearguard isn't so good, let us consider the last line of the Bruin defence - Frankie Brimsek. As successor to the peerless Tiny Thompson, Brimsek was sensational as a rookie. Today Brimsek, all reports to the contrary, is a better goalie than he was then.

As the Boston club was held to a 2-2 tie by an inspired band Red Wings at Olympia last Sunday evening, Brimsek gave the best display of puck fending for two periods that this observer has seen all season. Right now we'd rate him as the best goalie in the league with xxxxxxx of the Wings second and Turk Broda of the Maple Leafs third - and we are not just judging on the basis of their goals against records.
This is an interesting commentary on Brimsek and the incongruity between the perceptions of his relative greatness by everyone that commented on him and his 2nd all-star selections. The thing about Brimsek is that if you think about it, all those 2nd team all-star selections in an era when the first-team selection almost always went to the Vezina winner is really impressive - moreso than it appears at first glance. What it means is that in a year where the Vezina winner wasn't one of the two best goalies, Brimsek had to be the best goalie in the league just to make the second team, because the second-best goalie was not represented, at all, on the all-star team. Brimsek made eight consecutive all-star teams, with a two year break for the war almost directly in the middle of his career.

Also, it appears that those Boston teams after the war were really not very good defensively. I think may have been held at the level of an "average" defensive team largely because of Brimsek.

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...g=1421,3734088

The Saskatoon Star-Phoenix (great paper name) Apr 10, 1946:

Quote:
Canadiens Defeat Bruins, 6-3, to take Stanley Cup

Staying at the torrent pace they set all winter, Montreal Canadiens put on a three-goal splurge against Boston Bruins Tuesday night to break a 3-3 stalemate and win 6-3, capturing the Stanley Cup, emblematic of world hockey supremacy. It was the fifth game of the cup final and Canadiens won by four games to one.

Boston Defense Falters

Both teams staged furious hockey in the first two periods but in the last frame the Boston defense broke down under the pressure, paving the way for Canadiens' scoring spree.

After taking the National Hockey League championship during three consecutive seasons the smooth-working Canadiens captured their second Stanley Cup in the same number of years. They waltzed through the semifinal series in easy fashion to beat Chicago Black Hawks in four straight games and took four games from Bruins and dropped one to take the cup.

Montreal's Bill Durnan and Boston's Frankie Brimsek, who staged a terrific goaltending duel throughout the series, again turned in outstanding exhibitions of puck stopping Tuesday night. Brimsek deserved no part of the Boston defeat, which was mainly due to a weak defence that left him time and time again without protection.
Not the highest praise for Boston's defense, nor for it's checking forwards, for that matter, but then it is already known that 45-46 was a terrible season for the Kraut Line, who were not yet back into game shape.

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02-13-2012, 02:31 PM
  #785
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Originally Posted by arrbez View Post
Undrafted players...
Not to mention cherrypicking the worst year of competition Sundin ever faced. Yes, 2002 is one of the worst years for forwards of the modern era. Sundin also played in the early 90s, when I would say competition was the strongest ever.

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02-13-2012, 02:35 PM
  #786
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One should not forget when discussing Bernie Federko that he was a brilliant playoff performer. Considering his linemates, it is actually pretty remarkable some of the production he managed in the playoffs a few times. It's not like the Blues' opponents had much other than Federko to try and shut down.

When we take playoff performance in mind, I would definitely prefer Federko to Sundin from an offensive perspective. Sundin was the more well-rounded player, however, and so I think on balance they are roughly equals.

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02-13-2012, 02:37 PM
  #787
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Not to mention cherrypicking the worst year of competition Sundin ever faced. Yes, 2002 is one of the worst years for forwards of the modern era. Sundin also played in the early 90s, when I would say competition was the strongest ever.
Yeah, I cherrypicked his best year as far as placings go to show how bad Sundin was...

I would just like to see the data behind this wonderous find we have made that Mats Sundin is a better offensive player than Bernie Federko.

ie. Who was the #2 they were calculated against, how many points did they have and what did Sundin / Federko have in those respective seasons.

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02-13-2012, 02:38 PM
  #788
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Sundin was really big and Federko was not. Agreed.

My point was that both of them can probably count on one hand the number of hard hits they threw in their careers. Neither one of them was an intimidating physical presence at all.
Throwing bodychecks isn't the only way physical play comes into effect. Sundin rarely threw vicious checks (although he did every once in a while). He completely buried Jaromir Jagr at centre ice one time, and I vividly recall him smearing some poor chump along the sideboards a few years back. It wasn't his game though.

He wasn't Eric Lindros (as much as we all wanted him to be), but he used his size in the same way that John Leclair, Phil Esposito, etc did. At his best, he was an immovable object who could absorb bigtime punishment. He was great at putting a defenseman on his back, and just bulling his way to the net, especially in the second half of his career. I recall him just embarrassing Steve Staios (seriously, nobody draft Steve Staios) in that manner in one of his last seasons in TO.

He probably wouldn't crush you on the forecheck, and he certainly wouldn't fight you, but he was a very tough matchup physically with the puck on his stick.


Last edited by arrbez: 02-13-2012 at 02:50 PM.
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02-13-2012, 02:38 PM
  #789
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
The Saskatoon Star-Phoenix (great paper name) Apr 10, 1946:



Not the highest praise for Boston's defense, nor for it's checking forwards, for that matter, but then it is already known that 45-46 was a terrible season for the Kraut Line, who were not yet back into game shape.
Consider who the most prominent defensemen on that Boston defense were. They had 4 defensemen who played the majority of the games. Jack Crawford (their only noteworthy defensive minded guy), Murray Henderson (who I think was an AAA guy last year), Jack Church (who I don't think has ever been drafted at any level), and a guy who will be drafted in this for his offense more than his defense.

That's pretty brutal support against the Punch Line.

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02-13-2012, 02:39 PM
  #790
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
One should not forget when discussing Bernie Federko that he was a brilliant playoff performer. Considering his linemates, it is actually pretty remarkable some of the production he managed in the playoffs a few times. It's not like the Blues' opponents had much other than Federko to try and shut down.

When we take playoff performance in mind, I would definitely prefer Federko to Sundin from an offensive perspective. Sundin was the more well-rounded player, however, and so I think on balance they are roughly equals.
Yeah, not to knock Federko at all. Both guys have their merits, it just depends on the type of line you're looking to construct.

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02-13-2012, 02:44 PM
  #791
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Yeah, not to knock Federko at all. Both guys have their merits, it just depends on the type of line you're looking to construct.
Well one thing for sure, Sundin is a better goal scorer and Federko a better playmaker so, yes, they are relatively close, and yes it depends what you're looking for..

I can confidently say that Federko was a better bargain in this draft, though.

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02-13-2012, 02:49 PM
  #792
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Consider who the most prominent defensemen on that Boston defense were. They had 4 defensemen who played the majority of the games. Jack Crawford (their only noteworthy defensive minded guy), Murray Henderson (who I think was an AAA guy last year), Jack Church (who I don't think has ever been drafted at any level), and a guy who will be drafted in this for his offense more than his defense.
Nevertheless, those "above average" defensive teams, as you call them, were playing in front of a generational goalie, and obviously prone to breaking down defensively. Also, the Kraut Line got their legs back under them starting in 46-47, so the checking from the forward lines was likely on the whole quite good for the next few years.

Given what we know about those teams, I find it hard to conclude that their blueline corps was any better than average defensively, and they may well have been worse than average. You also seem to ignore the fact that there was another (undrafted) all-star defenseman playing for the Bruins in 45-46, and he was 27 and in his prime. I personally think this guy was probably pretty bad defensively, but he was there, and at least "on paper" (so judging by the names only) the other Boston blueliners don't look any worse than that fielded by many teams.

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02-13-2012, 02:51 PM
  #793
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Nevertheless, those "above average" defensive teams, as you call them, were playing in front of a generational goalie, and obviously prone to breaking down defensively. Also, the Kraut Line got their legs back under them starting in 46-47, so the checking from the forward lines was likely on the whole quite good for the next few years.

Given what we know about those teams, I find it hard to conclude that their blueline corps was any better than average defensively, and they may well have been worse than average. You also seem to ignore the fact that there was another (undrafted) all-star defenseman playing for the Bruins in 45-46, and he was 27 and in his prime. I personally think this guy was probably pretty bad defensively, but he was there, and at least "on paper" (so judging by the names only) the other Boston blueliners don't look any worse than that fielded by many teams.
I didn't ignore that defenseman. He was the undrafted I referred to in my above post as the guy who will be drafted more for his offense than his defense. And if he's as bad defensively as his points per all star consideration suggests, then I don't think he was doing much to reduce GAA.


Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe: 02-13-2012 at 02:56 PM.
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02-13-2012, 03:00 PM
  #794
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I didn't ignore that defenseman. He was the undrafted I referred to in my above post. And if he's as bad defensively as his points per all star consideration suggests, then I don't think he was doing much to reduce GAA.
This is quite possible. We should also not forget, however, that in that era Crawford would have been playing probably 30 - 35 minutes a night most nights as the team's #1 D. Given how good the goalie and checking forwards were, if Crawford was really all that good defensively, shouldn't the Bruins have been one of the best defensive teams in the league?

Are you really prepared to claim, without any kind of proof, that the other Boston defensemen were bad defensively because they didn't receive all-star votes? There were probably around 24 defensemen who got regular ice time in the NHL at that time. Only nine defensemen received all-star votes that season.

Bad defensive defensemen don't receive all-star votes, but then again, neither do average ones. Without any more information, we don't know where those other Boston defensemen fall.

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02-13-2012, 03:03 PM
  #795
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As the person who drafted Sundin I feel like I should chime in here and make a few comments:

Sundin was drafted by me for his point totals (The smallest of which in a full season in Toronto was 72), I also like Sundin's all around game. He might not be the most physical player out there but I expect him to use his size against opponents plus I expect Steve Larmer to help him out plus their left winger will probably be a physical player.

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02-13-2012, 03:05 PM
  #796
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tony d View Post
As the person who drafted Sundin I feel like I should chime in here and make a few comments:

Sundin was drafted by me for his point totals (The smallest of which in a full season in Toronto was 72), I also like Sundin's all around game. He might not be the most physical player out there but I expect him to use his size against opponents plus I expect Steve Larmer to help him out plus their left winger will probably be a physical player.
Jonas Hoglund and Sergei Berezin are both excellent options at LW.

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02-13-2012, 03:13 PM
  #797
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The Winnipeg Saints select RW Rick Tocchet


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02-13-2012, 03:22 PM
  #798
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Hopefully I have done this correctly and these are the actual numbers.. please note who Federko is being compared to vs. who Sundin is being compared to.

Since the vs 2 method is already supposed to take into account outliers, there is only one season in which I removed a player -- Gretzky when he and Lemieux both had 160+ in 89. Yzerman still had a monstrous 155 that year so Federko still gets kicked in the pants.

Sundin gets most of his top finishes against very good players but players who are not of the caliber offensively that Federko faced in his best percentage seasons.

They both face some incredible seasons by #2s: Hull (131), Jagr x 2 (123, 149) and Lafontaine (148) for Sundin.

Yzerman (155), Gretzky (149), Bossy (147), Lemieux (141) for Federko.

Federko

SeasonAgePTS#2NameRemoved%
1983-8427107126Coffey 0.85
1980-8124104135Dionne 0.77
1984-8528103135Kurri 0.76
1979-802394127Lafleur 0.74
1978-792295130Dionne 0.73
1985-8629102141Lemieux 0.72
1982-832684124Stastny 0.68
1986-873072108Kurri 0.67
1981-822592147Bossy 0.63
1987-883189149Gretzky 0.60
1989-903357129Messier 0.44
1988-893267155YzermanGretzky0.43
1977-782141123Trottier 0.33
1976-772023122Dionne 0.19


Sundin

SeasonAgePTS#2nameremoved%
2001-02308090Naslund 0.89
1996-972594109Selanne 0.86
2003-04327587Kovalchuk 0.86
1997-98267491Forsberg 0.81
1999-00287394Bure 0.78
1998-992783107Selanne 0.78
1992-9321114148Lafontaine 0.77
2007-083678106Malkin 0.74
1994-95234765XXXXX 0.72
1993-942285120Fedorov 0.71
2002-033172104Naslund 0.69
2006-073576114Thornton 0.67
2005-063478123Jagr 0.63
2000-012974118Sakic 0.62
1991-922076123Stevens 0.62
1995-962483149Jagr 0.56
1990-911959131Hull 0.45
2008-093728110Ovechkin 0.25


Sundin definitely has an edge in longevity, which we already knew, but I do think there is a definite tilt here in terms of comparing their competition during, say, their 10 or so best seasons.


Last edited by BraveCanadian: 02-13-2012 at 03:34 PM. Reason: hope I didn't miss any undrafteds
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02-13-2012, 03:25 PM
  #799
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arrbez View Post
Sundin was actually a very tough matchup physically, and one of the best in the league at protecting the puck down low. 6'5, 230 and strong as an ox. There were times when he would just brush defensemen off him like they were nothing on his way to the net.

Federko has his own pluses that Sundin doesn't have, but nothing I know about his size or playing style says he had anywhere near the physical presence Sundin did.
all true.

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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
One should not forget when discussing Bernie Federko that he was a brilliant playoff performer. Considering his linemates, it is actually pretty remarkable some of the production he managed in the playoffs a few times. It's not like the Blues' opponents had much other than Federko to try and shut down.

When we take playoff performance in mind, I would definitely prefer Federko to Sundin from an offensive perspective. Sundin was the more well-rounded player, however, and so I think on balance they are roughly equals.
Is 1.11 points per game in the 1980s, almost all in the "Snorris" really better than 0.90 points per game, mostly in the dead puck era?

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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Yeah, I cherrypicked his best year as far as placings go to show how bad Sundin was...

I would just like to see the data behind this wonderous find we have made that Mats Sundin is a better offensive player than Bernie Federko.

ie. Who was the #2 they were calculated against, how many points did they have and what did Sundin / Federko have in those respective seasons.
sometimes I think you enjoy putting me to work to keep me busy...

1979: 2, Dionne, 130, 95
1980: 3, LaFleur, 125, 94
1981: 3. *******, 131, 104
1982: 3. Stastny, 139, 92
1983: 3. Savard, 121, 84
1984: 4. Stastny, 119, 107
1985: 4. Dionne, 126, 103
1986: 6, Stastny, 122, 102
1987: 5. Gilmour, 105, 72
1988: 4, Hawerchuk, 121, 89

1992: 5, Robitaille/Messier, 107, 76
1993: 3, Oates, 142, 114
1994: 3, Oates, 112, 85
1995: 2, Lindros/Jagr, 70, 47
1996: 6, Lindros, 115, 83
1997: 3, Kariya, 99, 94
1998: 2, Forsberg, 91, 74
1999: 2, Selanne, 107, 83
2000: 2, Bure, 94, 73
2001: 3. Elias, 96, 74
2002: 2, Naslund, 90, 80
2003: 2, Naslund, 104, 72
2004: 2, Sakic/Kovalchuk, 87, 75
2006: 3, Ovechkin, 106, 78
2007: 2, Thornton, 114, 76
2008: 2, Malkin, 106, 78

2000-2003 was quite the lull but other than that, this is equal competition. Forsberg, Selanne, Lindros are considered better players than Stastny, Savard, and undrafted, and they were definitely better than 1987 Gilmour too.

Plus we are talking about 16 good+ seasons, not 10.

Plus more of his points were goals.

Plus he was a better all-around player, even if just marginally.

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02-13-2012, 03:29 PM
  #800
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I'll be the first to admit that this guy usually gets taken earlier than he should. In the last 3 drafts, he was taken at 217, 205, and 227. We're now at pick #303. My blueline certainly isn't lacking in physicality with Salming and Goodfellow, but we feel that this player is a very good pick value-wise, one of the most tenacious hitters of all time who took surprisingly fewer penalties than expected, D Leo Boivin



3x Top 10 Norris Voting: 5, 8, 10
4x Top 15 All Star Voting: 7, 11, 12, 15

Looking to move up from 323 to an immediate upcoming pick.

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