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ATD 2012 - Draft Thread IV

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Old
02-13-2012, 03:31 PM
  #801
BraveCanadian
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
sometimes I think you enjoy putting me to work to keep me busy...

1979: 2, Dionne, 130, 95
1980: 3, LaFleur, 125, 94
1981: 3. *******, 131, 104
1982: 3. Stastny, 139, 92
1983: 3. Savard, 121, 84
1984: 4. Stastny, 119, 107
1985: 4. Dionne, 126, 103
1986: 6, Stastny, 122, 102
1987: 5. Gilmour, 105, 72
1988: 4, Hawerchuk, 121, 89

1992: 5, Robitaille/Messier, 107, 76
1993: 3, Oates, 142, 114
1994: 3, Oates, 112, 85
1995: 2, Lindros/Jagr, 70, 47
1996: 6, Lindros, 115, 83
1997: 3, Kariya, 99, 94
1998: 2, Forsberg, 91, 74
1999: 2, Selanne, 107, 83
2000: 2, Bure, 94, 73
2001: 3. Elias, 96, 74
2002: 2, Naslund, 90, 80
2003: 2, Naslund, 104, 72
2004: 2, Sakic/Kovalchuk, 87, 75
2006: 3, Ovechkin, 106, 78
2007: 2, Thornton, 114, 76
2008: 2, Malkin, 106, 78

2000-2003 was quite the lull but other than that, this is equal competition. Forsberg, Selanne, Lindros are considered better players than Stastny, Savard, and undrafted, and they were definitely better than 1987 Gilmour too.

Plus we are talking about 16 good+ seasons, not 10.

Plus more of his points were goals.

Plus he was a better all-around player, even if just marginally.
I do like to keep you busy, but I kept myself busy too, and I think this illustrates one of my problems.. we just came up with wildly varying ideas of what vs2 is.. you were much more liberal about removing players and frankly, some of them I have to question.

I know you'll say they were fueled by Gretzky or Lemieux etc.. I'll say that they weren't totals that were at all outside the normal range for the time..

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Old
02-13-2012, 03:35 PM
  #802
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Is 1.11 points per game in the 1980s, almost all in the "Snorris" really better than 0.90 points per game, mostly in the dead puck era?
Did anyone build a statue of ****ing Mats Sundin?

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02-13-2012, 03:37 PM
  #803
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Did anyone build a statue of ****ing Mats Sundin?
They did just raise a banner for him.. not quite a statue but it is something!

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Old
02-13-2012, 03:37 PM
  #804
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I do like to keep you busy, but I kept myself busy too, and I think this illustrates one of my problems.. we just came up with wildly varying ideas of what vs2 is.. you were much more liberal about removing players and frankly, some of them I have to question.

I know you'll say they were fueled by Gretzky or Lemieux etc.. I'll say that they weren't totals that were at all outside the normal range for the time..
but they were outside the range of what that player would have done without that linemate.

regardless, doesn't the "fudging" help Federko a lot more than Sundin?

According to my numbers, Sundin wins “best 3” 270-256, “best-5” 431-410, and “best 10” 814-761, margins of 5%, 5%, and 7%.

According to yours, Sundin wins those metrics by margins of 10%, 9% and 11%.

You should like my numbers better. They make more sense and they benefit the horse you have in this race.

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Old
02-13-2012, 03:38 PM
  #805
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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
I'll be the first to admit that this guy usually gets taken earlier than he should. In the last 3 drafts, he was taken at 217, 205, and 227. We're now at pick #303. My blueline certainly isn't lacking in physicality with Salming and Goodfellow, but we feel that this player is a very good pick value-wise, one of the most tenacious hitters of all time who took surprisingly fewer penalties than expected, D Leo Boivin



3x Top 10 Norris Voting: 5, 8, 10
4x Top 15 All Star Voting: 7, 11, 12, 15

Looking to move up from 323 to an immediate upcoming pick.
I don't like you very much right now.

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02-13-2012, 03:42 PM
  #806
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A lot of times on these boards, I get the impression that a lot of guys in a certain age group - a little older than me, but not too much - really romanticize the 1980s and haven't begun to entertain the thought that a lot of 1990s and 2000s forwards have actually exceeded the achievements of a lot of those 1980s forwards.

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Old
02-13-2012, 03:42 PM
  #807
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Did anyone build a statue of ****ing Mats Sundin?
WTF, is there a Bernie Federko statue somewhere?

Even if there is, I doubt he ever received the highest honour any athlete can have bestowed on them:




Just sayin'.

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02-13-2012, 03:45 PM
  #808
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WTF, is there a Bernie Federko statue somewhere?


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Old
02-13-2012, 03:46 PM
  #809
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
but they were outside the range of what that player would have done without that linemate.
Again, being frank - I understand your logic behind it - but I don't think statisticians would like you deciding that about data and then presenting what you think is the fixed data.

Quote:
regardless, doesn't the "fudging" help Federko a lot more than Sundin?

According to my numbers, Sundin wins “best 3” 270-256, “best-5” 431-410, and “best 10” 814-761, margins of 5%, 5%, and 7%.

According to yours, Sundin wins those metrics by margins of 10%, 9% and 11%.
The fudging might make Federko look better in this example, but I still think that the standard he is being compared against is better.

The point is people shouldn't have different numbers / methods if this is going to be an acceptable method for people here to compare players.

Quote:
You should like my numbers better. They make more sense and they benefit the horse you have in this race.
I don't really have a horse in the race: I am a Leaf fan after all (although not a super Sundin fan, I do appreciate how good he was for how long etc)., and I do like Federko as well..

But, I'm not supposed to pick numbers that match what I am looking for - that is cooking the books.

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Old
02-13-2012, 03:48 PM
  #810
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Eeeewww...look at Mats eating the Canucks. That's so nasty.

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Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
I think the sculptor captured his stache really well.


Last edited by seventieslord: 02-14-2012 at 02:49 PM.
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Old
02-13-2012, 03:53 PM
  #811
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I think the sculptor captured his stache really well.
The fact this exists proves what a crappy franchise the Blues is.

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Old
02-13-2012, 03:57 PM
  #812
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This is quite possible. We should also not forget, however, that in that era Crawford would have been playing probably 30 - 35 minutes a night most nights as the team's #1 D. Given how good the goalie and checking forwards were, if Crawford was really all that good defensively, shouldn't the Bruins have been one of the best defensive teams in the league?
First off, I don't think anyone is calling Crawford a Rod Langway or even Butch Bouchard here. I think there's a good case he's in the Cy Wentworth class of defensive defensemen; that's it.

Brimsek was great, but was he really that much better than Durnan or Broda, both of whom had superior defenses overall? Durnan in particular had Reardon and Bouchard playing in front of him (both of whom are obviously better than Crawford), not to mention a third defenseman who received all star votes on a handful of occasions. I'm not sure about the defenses of ever other team in the league (Toronto had the Gold Dust twins).

Quote:
Are you really prepared to claim, without any kind of proof, that the other Boston defensemen were bad defensively because they didn't receive all-star votes? There were probably around 24 defensemen who got regular ice time in the NHL at that time. Only nine defensemen received all-star votes that season

Bad defensive defensemen don't receive all-star votes, but then again, neither do average ones. Without any more information, we don't know where those other Boston defensemen fall
FIrst off, the only proof offered for Boston's team defense being bad as a whole was a single playoff series in 1946 where Maurice Richard tore them a new one. I think "mediocre" is a better description. They were well above the Rangers and usually Blackhawks for this entire time frame and generally much closer to the teams at the top than the bottom.

I do that Boston's defensemen as a whole were definitely worse than Toronto or Montreal, and probably worse than Detroit, as well. But look at who we are comparing them to. Montreal and Toronto both had their top pairings drafted well before Crawford was. What makes Crawford worse than Gus Morton, for example?

As for the other 4 Boston defensemen from the 1946 finals: Murray Henderson, who had a long career was okay, but that seems like it for the support Crawford would have had. That undrafted guy we are talking about seems pretty poor defensively and while his reckless game may have helped the team win, it wouldn't have helped GAA. Their 4th defenseman, Jack Church only played 123 career regular season games and never played a single game after the 1946 finals, so I would have to say that he was probably pretty poor.

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02-13-2012, 04:00 PM
  #813
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I do that Boston's defensemen as a whole were definitely worse than Toronto or Montreal, and probably worse than Detroit, as well. But look at who we are comparing them to. Montreal and Toronto both had their top pairings drafted well before Crawford was. What makes Crawford worse than Gus Morton, for example?
Nothing, in particular, but there's also nothing in particular that makes him better than a couple of undrafteds.

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02-13-2012, 04:02 PM
  #814
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First off, I don't think anyone is calling Crawford a Rod Langway or even Butch Bouchard here. I think there's a good case he's in the Cy Wentworth class of defensive defensemen; that's it.
And roughly paraphrased from a while ago, if my memory serves well:
Quote:
Vezina around equal to Belfour
Ok, now I know you're trying to equate your guys to mine, your division rival

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02-13-2012, 04:04 PM
  #815
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Originally Posted by Leafs Forever View Post
And roughly paraphrased from a while ago, if my memory serves well:


Ok, now I know you're trying to equate your guys to mine, your division rival
I said Vezina was probably on par with Belfour when they faced off in the 2011 ATD playoffs. Get over yourself.

I didn't even remember Cy was on your team. I brought him up because EB made a big deal about how he was a step up from other defensive defensemen who were left.

Edit: To be honest, the more I read about Vezina, the more he stands out as arguably the best goale to ever play before 1930 (yes, contemporaries generally prefer him to Benedict, but that's a case to be made when I have time to profile him).


Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe: 02-13-2012 at 04:09 PM.
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Old
02-13-2012, 04:07 PM
  #816
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I said Vezina was probably on par with Belfour when they faced off in the 2011 ATD playoffs. Get over yourself.
Get over yourself. I said it first during one of the draft threads, iirc.

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02-13-2012, 04:11 PM
  #817
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Get over yourself. I said it first during one of the draft threads, iirc.
Was that you who said it first? I remember someone said it first and I agreed with that person. Point being, I don't change my opinion based on who is in my division.

Sorry to steal your thunder...

Edit: Here's the thread: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...d.php?t=912115

You are, in fact, the one who said it. I didn't feel like name dropping because I think "sturm said" is a really lame way to support an argument. I more or less agreed with you at the time

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02-13-2012, 04:13 PM
  #818
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I said Vezina was probably on par with Belfour when they faced off in the 2011 ATD playoffs. Get over yourself.

I didn't even remember Cy was on your team. I brought him up because EB made a big deal about how he was a step up from other defensive defensemen who were left.

Edit: To be honest, the more I read about Vezina, the more he stands out as arguably the best goale to ever play before 1930 (yes, contemporaries generally prefer him to Benedict, but that's a case to be made when I have time to profile him).
Quote:
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Get over yourself. I said it first during one of the draft threads, iirc.
I said it earlier than first

Wait...

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02-13-2012, 04:13 PM
  #819
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Yup...that was me. I spent a lot of time reading about how great Vezina was while researching Hugh Lehman, who big bad meanie stole from me with his second sock.


Last edited by seventieslord: 02-13-2012 at 04:18 PM. Reason: come on, Sturm, you can't say that...
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02-13-2012, 04:14 PM
  #820
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Again, being frank - I understand your logic behind it - but I don't think statisticians would like you deciding that about data and then presenting what you think is the fixed data.



The fudging might make Federko look better in this example, but I still think that the standard he is being compared against is better.

The point is people shouldn't have different numbers / methods if this is going to be an acceptable method for people here to compare players.



I don't really have a horse in the race: I am a Leaf fan after all (although not a super Sundin fan, I do appreciate how good he was for how long etc)., and I do like Federko as well..

But, I'm not supposed to pick numbers that match what I am looking for - that is cooking the books.
I think it's more than a bit dodgy to remove different numbers of players from different years and present it as a comparable metric.

I think the least you can do is remove equal numbers of players. If you must remove Gretzky for Federko, then remove Jagr for Sundin. If you remove Lemieux, remove Sakic as well. If you remove Kurri, remove Forsberg. And so on. It's still cherry picking but at least it doesn't favour Sundin or Federko.

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Old
02-13-2012, 04:18 PM
  #821
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
I think the least you can do is remove equal numbers of players. If you must remove Gretzky for Federko, then remove Jagr for Sundin. If you remove Lemieux, remove Sakic as well. If you remove Kurri, remove Forsberg. And so on. It's still cherry picking but at least it doesn't favour Sundin or Federko.
Damn, if they had even one season of overlap, I would have suggested removing every other player in the league

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02-13-2012, 04:20 PM
  #822
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Brimsek was great, but was he really that much better than Durnan or Broda, both of whom had superior defenses overall?
I think we have every reason to believe that Frank Brimsek was better than Turk Broda, yes. Better than a peak Durnan is less clear, as I haven't found any direct comparisons between the two, though I would say that Brimsek attracted more superlative praise than anything I've ever seen on Durnan.

Seriously...put "Brimsek" into google archives and see how much positive information pops out about this guy. I wouldn't have time to post it all, but from looking at how the papers of the time wrote about him, Frank Brimsek seems to have been an extraordinary player.

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02-13-2012, 04:21 PM
  #823
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Originally Posted by overpass View Post
I think it's more than a bit dodgy to remove different numbers of players from different years and present it as a comparable metric.

I think the least you can do is remove equal numbers of players. If you must remove Gretzky for Federko, then remove Jagr for Sundin. If you remove Lemieux, remove Sakic as well. If you remove Kurri, remove Forsberg. And so on. It's still cherry picking but at least it doesn't favour Sundin or Federko.
but it would favour Sundin, because the argument could still be, "the eras had about the same top quality players, but the 1980s had Lemieux and Gretzky on top of that, so two more players should be removed from each year"

if we end up just comparing to #7 every year, then we're not comparing to a standard that is static throughout history. there were some real weak #7 scorers in the O6 era and some extremely strong ones in the last 30 years.

I hear you but the "don't be a slave to a system and pretend it works" argument still compels me much more.

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02-13-2012, 04:29 PM
  #824
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but it would favour Sundin, because the argument could still be, "the eras had about the same top quality players, but the 1980s had Lemieux and Gretzky on top of that, so two more players should be removed from each year"

if we end up just comparing to #7 every year, then we're not comparing to a standard that is static throughout history. there were some real weak #7 scorers in the O6 era and some extremely strong ones in the last 30 years.

I hear you but the "don't be a slave to a system and pretend it works" argument still compels me much more.
I understand you want to make the system work for you.

But if you have nothing more to support your adjustments than your intuition, it may not work for anybody else.

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02-13-2012, 04:42 PM
  #825
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I understand you want to make the system work for you.

But if you have nothing more to support your adjustments than your intuition, it may not work for anybody else.
I can live with that. Because if someone says to me, "hey, I don't like what you did for 1989" I don't have trouble showing why it makes more sense than using 168 points as the comparable.

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