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ATD 2012 - Draft Thread IV

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Old
02-09-2012, 11:24 AM
  #101
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Are we really back to valuing these players based on their career points per game averages, without caring at all about how high they peaked? That method was considered obsolete when I first started posting in the History section and I'm surprised you want to go back to it.
Maybe we got to the other side too extremely.It's all about balance.

A guy win the art ross then finish 5th then retired.A guy finishes 12th in scoring for 13 years.

whos more valuable?

it's hard to judge.

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02-09-2012, 11:24 AM
  #102
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I'd like to see a vs. #2 comparison for the 4 RWers being discussed. Not going to put in the effort since I don't have one of them, just throwing it out there as a suggestion

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02-09-2012, 11:25 AM
  #103
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Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
Look , I agree with you , but I also think Alfredsson has a more gradual career , you can't just count his prime then forgot outside of it he was very very close to his prime while st.louis just basically has a prime.

If you take out the weird 05-06 year , you have eight seasons between 89 pts and 70 pts.What do you do what all of this?

suggest me something then , I completely agree prime is more valuable and that,s why I rank st.louis higher.
Seems like we more or less agree. I'm sure if you look at top 20 finishes or whatever, Alfredsson is closer to St Louis than if you just look at top 10 finishes. My issue is with seventies ridiculous claim that "it's hard to choose them" rather than your claim which seems to be "top 10 finishes makes the gap look bigger than it really is" which is something I can agree with. I think both players were drafted about where they should have been, which at this stage in the game means there is a small but definite gap there.

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02-09-2012, 11:25 AM
  #104
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Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
Look , I agree with you , but I also think Alfredsson has a more gradual career , you can't just count his prime then forgot outside of it he was very very close to his prime while st.louis just basically has a prime.

If you take out the weird 05-06 year , you have eight seasons between 89 pts and 70 pts.What do you do what all of this?

suggest me something then , I completely agree prime is more valuable and that,s why I rank st.louis higher.
Yeah, and let me put it this way as well. Just because they get harder to choose from yearly doesn’t mean I think it is particularly hard yet. But the guy who’s probably 4th among these four – Hossa - is the guy who is currently compiling, for lack of a better word, career value at the fastest rate – probably in absolute terms and in “percentage of what he’s already accomplished” terms. So over the last few years he has bridged the gap considerably, even if there is one. When it’s all said and done, picking between the four may be an extremely difficult choice. It’s not now, but it is getting more difficult.

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02-09-2012, 11:26 AM
  #105
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Are we really back to valuing these players based on their career points per game averages, without caring at all about how high they peaked? That method was considered obsolete when I first started posting in the History section and I'm surprised you want to go back to it.
One thing I find intresting is that everytime Iginla has played for Canada they won the gold.

I think Iginla and St- Louis are better offensive players than Alfie but if you want a defensively responsibly RW you go with Alfie or Hossa.

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02-09-2012, 11:26 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Are we really back to valuing these players based on their career points per game averages, without caring at all about how high they peaked? That method was considered obsolete when I first started posting in the History section and I'm surprised you want to go back to it.
these guys have all been in direct competition for a decade now. there's nothing really slanted about such a method when it comes to these four.

sell us on the importance of compartmentalization as opposed to the "big picture"

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02-09-2012, 11:26 AM
  #107
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It matters how long that peak was. If the peak was long enough that it's not a "career year" or two. Then yeah, take the peak.

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02-09-2012, 11:31 AM
  #108
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Yeah, and let me put it this way as well. Just because they get harder to choose from yearly doesn’t mean I think it is particularly hard yet. But the guy who’s probably 4th among these four – Hossa - is the guy who is currently compiling, for lack of a better word, career value at the fastest rate – probably in absolute terms and in “percentage of what he’s already accomplished” terms. So over the last few years he has bridged the gap considerably, even if there is one. When it’s all said and done, picking between the four may be an extremely difficult choice. It’s not now, but it is getting more difficult.
Oh okay, yeah, that's true, I don't think many players have done more for their ATD standing in the last few years than Hossa.

Hossa is having the best season of all of them right now, but St. Louis is right behind currently sitting at 10th in league scoring. Hossa probably has more good years left too.

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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
these guys have all been in direct competition for a decade now. there's nothing really slanted about such a method when it comes to these four.

sell us on the importance of compartmentalization as opposed to the "big picture"
If you care about how good these guys actually were, don't you look at them at their best? A 6-8 year prime (or whatever) is certainly long enough to show he actually is that good, rather than it was just a freak thing. There's a reason Guy Lafleur is drafted in the first round, despite his career PPG not being that impressive.

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Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
I'd like to see a vs. #2 comparison for the 4 RWers being discussed. Not going to put in the effort since I don't have one of them, just throwing it out there as a suggestion
I'll get to it eventually if nobody else will. I'm pretty sure it'll show what the rankings show - St. Louis has the highest offensive peak, followed by Iginla, but Alfredsson and Hossa have more longevity as impact players.

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Old
02-09-2012, 11:32 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
I think you know the answer. I remember the years 1988 and beyond very well. Memories of the Oiler dynasty were obviously very fresh for everyone I knew.
Yeah, so basically we have most people who actually saw the games in question in one camp, and most people who didn't in the other? Hmmm...

Meanwhile, I've gleaned a ton of contemporary newspaper reports to give the people, like you, who didn't see the games some insight as to how widespread the notion was that he was a huge playoff performer and considered the best goalie in the world at the time. Because, frankly, I knew that the stats hounds would be after me.

And we are going to ignore those because we have some regular season stats that don't mean too much (because that team is documented all over the place as taking it easy in the regular season), and your recollection of people's memories.. what do your contemporary scouting reports say about Fuhr?

Do you think the coaches and management winning those Stanley Cups and Canada Cups weren't capable of looking at a stat line?

Heck, I'll be the first to admit his stats aren't all that flattering, even if they are above the average for the time, but come crunch time I'll be very comfortable with Grant Fuhr as my goalie.

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Old
02-09-2012, 11:35 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
I'd like to see a vs. #2 comparison for the 4 RWers being discussed. Not going to put in the effort since I don't have one of them, just throwing it out there as a suggestion
Name Alfredsson Iginla St.Louis Hossa
1 92 107 108 94
2 84 92 100 88
3 84 87 89 78
4 79 84 86 77
5 76 82 78 75
6 75 81 73 73
7 73 74 67 65
8 72 67 50 62
9 67 64 42 60
10 65 63 39 58
Best 3 260 286 297 260
Best 5 415 452 461 412
Best 10 767 801 732 730

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Oh okay, yeah, that's true, I don't think many players have done more for their ATD standing in the last few years than Hossa.

Hossa is having the best season of all of them right now, but St. Louis is right behind currently sitting at 10th in league scoring. Hossa probably has more good years left too.
St. Louis is currently 19th, but in fairness that’s just 4 points out of 10th.

Quote:
If you care about how good these guys actually were, don't you look at them at their best? A 6-8 year prime (or whatever) is certainly long enough to show he actually is that good, rather than it was just a freak thing. There's a reason Guy Lafleur is drafted in the first round, despite his career PPG not being that impressive.
1.20? Yeah, that is pretty impressive. 1.27 pre-comeback.

Sure, let’s look at them at their best. I have no problem with that if it’s based on a good amount of seasons. In the chart I posted above, the difference from the best “best 5” and the worst is 9.7% currently.

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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Yeah, so basically we have most people who actually saw the games in question in one camp, and most people who didn't in the other? Hmmm...

Meanwhile, I've gleaned a ton of contemporary newspaper reports to give the people, like you, who didn't see the games some insight as to how widespread the notion was that he was a huge playoff performer and considered the best goalie in the world at the time. Because, frankly, I knew that the stats hounds would be after me.

And we are going to ignore those because we have some regular season stats that don't mean too much (because that team is documented all over the place as taking it easy in the regular season), and your recollection of people's memories.. what do your contemporary scouting reports say about Fuhr?

Do you think the coaches and management winning those Stanley Cups and Canada Cups weren't capable of looking at a stat line?

Heck, I'll be the first to admit his stats aren't all that flattering, even if they are above the average for the time, but come crunch time I'll be very comfortable with Grant Fuhr as my goalie.
You’re getting pretty defensive towards a guy who’s just trying to post a counterpoint to the “best goalie in the world” business. The league’s GMs vote on that award, they didn’t seem to think he was very often. Christ, if he was, when you consider who else was on that time, how would they ever lose a game at all?

I can post some scouting reports later if I ever get the time.

Doesn’t it seem strange that for most of the years preceding 1990, there was this whole mindset “they won the cup, therefore, they must have the best goalie in the game, and if you didn’t win the cup, then you must not be the best goalie in the game”?

Just remember… “good enough to win”.


Last edited by seventieslord: 02-09-2012 at 02:03 PM.
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Old
02-09-2012, 11:45 AM
  #111
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Name Alfredsson Iginla St.Louis Hossa
1 92 107 108 94
2 84 92 100 88
3 84 87 89 78
4 79 84 86 77
5 76 82 78 75
6 75 81 73 73
7 73 74 67 65
8 72 67 50 62
9 67 64 42 60
10 65 63 39 58
Best 3 260 286 297 260
Best 5 415 452 461 412
Best 10 767 801 732 730
Thanks. Shows mostly what I thought - a small edge in 3 year peak and 5 year prime offense for St Louis over Iginla and a fairly significant advantage for both over the other two. I wasn't expecting Iginla to hold up so well in their 10 year (longevity as an impact player?) period but I guess I should have.

Out of curiosity, does this count the current season to date?

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02-09-2012, 11:46 AM
  #112
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St Louis and Iginla have both had off years right in the middle of their peak/prime. If you like peak to be consecutive that matters.

Points in Iginla's favor: he's played in the stronger conference and hasn't always had great linemates. Plus his skillset is in demand.

I don't think St Louis should be above Alfredsson or Hossa. Weak division, always had good centres, and his size/strength could be a liability (true for Alfie as well but less so.)

Alfredsson and St Louis are similar. Great skaters, very smart, skilled, versatile and can adapt to any linemates, more playmakers than scorers. Iginla and Hossa are less versatile but are big and strong and can overpower opponents.

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02-09-2012, 11:47 AM
  #113
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Name Alfredsson Iginla St.Louis Hossa
1 92 107 108 94
2 84 92 100 88
3 84 87 89 78
4 79 84 86 77
5 76 82 78 75
6 75 81 73 73
7 73 74 67 65
8 72 67 50 62
9 67 64 42 60
10 65 63 39 58
Best 3 260 286 297 260
Best 5 415 452 461 412
Best 10 767 801 732 730
Hossa and Alfredsson are eerily similar here. Probably a safe bet that Hossa will pass him in the near future though.

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02-09-2012, 11:49 AM
  #114
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LOL, St Louis's stats are shifted over a column in hockey reference because he has an added column for "championships." I was using his assists rather than points. How could none of you have caught that? LOL

These are their actually points finishes (edited the earlier post too):

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Eh, Hossa and Alfredsson are very good picks now, but you really think not much differentiates them from Iginla and St. Louis???

Top 10 scoring finishes
Iginla = 1st, 3rd, 6th, 8th
St. Louis = 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th
Hossa = 5th, 6th, 9th*
Alfredsson = 4th, 7th, 9th

*right now 2011-12

St Louis and Iginla peaked a level the other two never did

Hossa and Alfredsson are very good picks now, this is addressed to seventielord's ridiculous statement that "it gets harder to choose between them and Iginla and St Louis"
Though the vs 2 numbers 70s posted are a better way of comparing them.

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St Louis and Iginla have both had off years right in the middle of their peak/prime. If you like peak to be consecutive that matters.

Points in Iginla's favor: he's played in the stronger conference and hasn't always had great linemates. Plus his skillset is in demand.

I don't think St Louis should be above Alfredsson or Hossa. Weak division, always had good centres, and his size/strength could be a liability (true for Alfie as well but less so.)

Alfredsson and St Louis are similar. Great skaters, very smart, skilled, versatile and can adapt to any linemates, more playmakers than scorers. Iginla and Hossa are less versatile but are big and strong and can overpower opponents.
The "weak conference" thing might have some merit since teams play limited inter-conference games. But the "weak division" thing has very little merit, as teams play almost as many games against each team in the other divisions in their conference as they do against teams in their own division.

As for the "always had very good center" thing, that's true, but we have also all seen how much better St Louis's centers have historically played as soon as he was put on their line vs. when he was taken off.

If St Louis' size/strength were such a liability, you would expect that he would have performed poorly against real life opponents like Scott Stevens and Chris Pronger in the playoffs, would you not? There aren't any ATD defensemen stronger than those two.


Last edited by seventieslord: 02-09-2012 at 02:04 PM.
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02-09-2012, 11:52 AM
  #115
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Thanks. Shows mostly what I thought - a small edge in 3 year peak and 5 year prime offense for St Louis over Iginla and a fairly significant advantage for both over the other two. I wasn't expecting Iginla to hold up so well in their 10 year (longevity as an impact player?) period but I guess I should have.

Out of curiosity, does this count the current season to date?
Important modification - it's an edge in nonconsecutive peak/prime.

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02-09-2012, 11:57 AM
  #116
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Thanks. Shows mostly what I thought - a small edge in 3 year peak and 5 year prime offense for St Louis over Iginla and a fairly significant advantage for both over the other two. I wasn't expecting Iginla to hold up so well in their 10 year (longevity as an impact player?) period but I guess I should have.

Out of curiosity, does this count the current season to date?
nope.

as of now:

Hossa: 88
St Louis: 82
Alfredsson: 67
Iginla: 73

all four are having seasons right now that would earn a spot in their top-10 offensively. For alfie and Iginla, they'd be 9th and 10th on their lists and aren't defining seasons. For St.Louis, it's arguably his 5th best and Hossa's 2nd-3rd-best.

if this season finishes up the way it's going, St. Louis' best 5 add up to 465 and Hossa's are 425, Dropping Alfie to last on the "best 5" scale.

But, I have Jagr as the comparable for 2006, and that was his best year. I have been thinking of changing this and using #3 that season. If I do that, it obviously affects all of them, but Alfie the most.

if we use Ovechkin's 106 points as the comp (i am now pretty sure we should) his 84 becomes a 97, St. Louis goes from 50 to 58, Hossa goes from 75 to 87, and Iginla goes from 54 (not on this list) to 63 (ties his 10th)

then their best 5s would be, left to right, 428, 452, 465, 425 including this season, just a 9% difference from best to worst... fascinating!

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
LOL, St Louis's stats are shifted over a column in hockey reference because he has an added column for "championships." I was using his assists rather than points. How could none of you have caught that? LOL
no kidding. I was like, "wow, it's that many top-10s already, hey?"


Last edited by seventieslord: 02-09-2012 at 02:04 PM.
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02-09-2012, 11:59 AM
  #117
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Doesn’t it seem strange that for most of the years preceding 1990, there was this whole mindset “they won the cup, therefore, they must have the best goalie in the game, and if you didn’t win the cup, then you must not be the best goalie in the game”?
I'd say that effect probably extends a lot further than goalies and doesn't have a nice cut off at 1990, either.

I'm not defensive so much as frustrated by the statistic arguments against Fuhr. The nub of it is that you guys have to believe you have some divine insight into them that wasn't available to the people whose job it was to win hockey games, watch hockey games, and report on hockey games at the time - they saw those stats too - and still most people believed he was the best goalie around.

Again, do you think that all those people couldn't read the same stat line you have now? Or that it was a time intensive process to see what his placings in those stats were compared to others? I mean for people whose job it was to evaluate hockey talent?

I happen to believe that having seen him play at the time, seeing the stats then and now, and then going back and researching just what his reputation was at large back then.. that the Oilers' were a unique situation and Fuhr was indeed a top goalie when it counted.

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02-09-2012, 12:04 PM
  #118
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nope.

as of now:

Hossa: 88
St Louis: 82
Alfredsson: 67
Iginla: 73

all four are having seasons right now that would earn a spot in their top-10 offensively. For alfie and Iginla, they'd be 9th and 10th on their lists and aren't defining seasons. For St.Louis, it's arguably his 5th best and Hossa's 2nd-3rd-best.

if this season finishes up the way it's going, St. Louis' best 5 add up to 465 and Hossa's are 425, Dropping Alfie to last on the "best 5" scale.

But, I have Jagr as the comparable for 2006, and that was his best year. I have been thinking of changing this and using #3 that season. If I do that, it obviously affects all of them, but Alfie the most.

if we use Ovechkin's 106 points as the comp (i am now pretty sure we should) his 84 becomes a 97, St. Louis goes from 50 to 58, Hossa goes from 75 to 87, and Iginla goes from 54 (not on this list) to 63 (ties his 10th)

then their best 5s would be, left to right, 428, 452, 465, 425 including this season, just a 9% difference from best to worst... fascinating!
Actually IIRC, Ovechkin has always played on the left side. At least I can never recall him playing on the right side when I've seen the Canes play the Caps since he's been on their team, or when I've watched him on TV. So Alfredsson's 103 would be the best behind Jagr at that point for that season. Hossa's 92 points would be 89% of that point total that season.

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02-09-2012, 12:04 PM
  #119
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Important modification - it's an edge in nonconsecutive peak/prime.
Here's consecutive:

Points since 2001-02 (Iginla's breakout season)

1. Joe Thornton 868
2. Jarome Iginla 783
3. Martin St Louis 767
...
6. Daniel Alfredsson 724
7. Marian Hossa 718

PPG since 2001-02 (only listing these 4 players):

7. Alfredsson 1.02
8. St Louis 1.02
10. Iginla 1.01
14. Hossa 0.99

Points since 2003-04 (St Louis's breakout season):

1. Joe Thornton 699
2. Martin St Louis 662
...
6. Jarome Iginla 620
...
11. Daniel Alfredsson 575
12. Marian Hossa 572

PPG since 2003-04 (only listing these 4 players):

7. Martin St Louis 1.07
10. Daniel Alfredsson 1.04
14. Marian Hossa 1.01
15. Jarome Iginla 1.01

For all the talk about St Louis' lack of size, he's been remarkably durable - more so than Alfredsson or Hossa.

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02-09-2012, 12:07 PM
  #120
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I'd say that effect probably extends a lot further than goalies and doesn't have a nice cut off at 1990, either.
you could say it went beyond 1990. i'd say it applied to Roy and Brodeur, mostly, though when said about Roy I tend to believe it was actually true.

Quote:
I'm not defensive so much as frustrated by the statistic arguments against Fuhr. The nub of it is that you guys have to believe you have some divine insight into them that wasn't available to the people whose job it was to win hockey games, watch hockey games, and report on hockey games at the time - they saw those stats too - and still most people believed he was the best goalie around.Again, do you think that all those people couldn't read the same stat line you have now? Or that it was a time intensive process to see what his placings in those stats were compared to others? I mean for people whose job it was to evaluate hockey talent?
what about the GMs when they voted on the Vezina? you have to admit that is quite the conundrum.

Quote:
I happen to believe that having seen him play at the time, seeing the stats then and now, and then going back and researching just what his reputation was at large back then.. that the Oilers' were a unique situation and Fuhr was indeed a top goalie when it counted.
surely you had to know what you were getting into. Cup counters think he's on the fringe of the top-10, and the MadArcands of the world might hesitate having him in a top-40. most of us are firmly in the middle section between those extremes but there is no doubt he's a very divisive goalie.

Quote:
PPG since 2001-02 (only listing these 4 players):

7. Alfredsson 1.02
8. St Louis 1.02
10. Iginla 1.01
14. Hossa 0.99
Christ, that is close.


Last edited by seventieslord: 02-09-2012 at 02:05 PM.
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02-09-2012, 12:09 PM
  #121
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Christ, that is close.
LOL, I love how of the 4 comparisons I did, you picked the really close one to quote.

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02-09-2012, 12:16 PM
  #122
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The "weak conference" thing might have some merit since teams play limited inter-conference games. But the "weak division" thing has very little merit, as teams play almost as many games against each team in the other divisions in their conference as they do against teams in their own division.

As for the "always had very good center" thing, that's true, but we have also all seen how much better St Louis's centers have historically played as soon as he was put on their line vs. when he was taken off.

If St Louis' size/strength were such a liability, you would expect that he would have performed poorly against real life opponents like Scott Stevens and Chris Pronger in the playoffs, would you not? There aren't any ATD defensemen stronger than those two.
I think the size thing hurts St Louis more defensively than offensively. Especially compared to Hossa. He has to do a lot more skating and more work for every puck battle he wins, and I don't think he wins as many as Hossa.

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02-09-2012, 12:16 PM
  #123
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
LOL, I love how of the 4 comparisons I did, you picked the really close one to quote.
Thats because you only value St. Louis and Iginlas prime seasons and completely ignore Alfredsson post-01.

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02-09-2012, 12:21 PM
  #124
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I think the size thing hurts St Louis more defensively than offensively. Especially compared to Hossa. He has to do a lot more skating and more work for every puck battle he wins, and I don't think he wins as many as Hossa.
Oh well, yeah, Hossa is definitely better at winning pucks along the boards. Hossa is actually believable as a puck winner for his line in the ATD (though probably a relatively weak one). And while St Louis is a battler (perhaps fine in a "puck winning by committee role"), he would never be confused with a dedicated puck winner in the ATD.

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Originally Posted by jkrx View Post
Thats because you only value St. Louis and Iginlas prime seasons and completely ignore Alfredsson post-01.
You mean Alfredsson pre-01. And yes, when a player has been in his prime for 8-10 years, I do basically only value his prime seasons.

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02-09-2012, 12:26 PM
  #125
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Oh well, yeah, Hossa is definitely better at winning pucks along the boards. Hossa is actually believable as a puck winner for his line in the ATD (though probably a relatively weak one). And while St Louis is a battler (perhaps fine in a "puck winning by committee role"), he would never be confused with a dedicated puck winner in the ATD.



You mean Alfredsson pre-01. And yes, when a player has been in his prime for 8-10 years, I do basically only value his prime seasons.
I would rather value a guy that puts up similar numbers offesively while being on another level defensively.

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