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ATD 2012 - Draft Thread IV

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Old
02-09-2012, 07:34 PM
  #201
Hawkey Town 18
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I'm curious as to what makes Keats a "great" playmaker? His best goals and assists finishes are about the same. Wouldn't you expect a "great" playmaker to have better assists finishes than his goals?

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02-09-2012, 07:34 PM
  #202
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Keats is also 18th all-time in "normalized penalty minutes" in this 2004 article from the old Daryl Schilling site The Hockey Project: http://web.archive.org/web/20040905011225/http://members.shaw.ca/hbtn/player_study/norm_pen_goon.htm

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02-09-2012, 07:38 PM
  #203
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
I'm curious as to what makes Keats a "great" playmaker? His best goals and assists finishes are about the same. Wouldn't you expect a "great" playmaker to have better assists finishes than his goals?
Anecdotes rave about his playmaking and not goalscoring

You're absolutely right about the stats though - they make him look like a balanced scorer (which is fine by me). It really is strange for the early guys when the stats and anecdotes don't quite match. Especially since stats of the era are often incomplete

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02-09-2012, 07:43 PM
  #204
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The Montreal Canadiens select Patrik Elias, LW and complete their top 6.


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02-09-2012, 07:46 PM
  #205
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IMO, Elias = Alfredsson = Hossa as borderline HHOFers. Just one small step down from Iginla and St Louis who are low-end HHOF locks

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02-09-2012, 07:47 PM
  #206
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Not to mention Elias is having a great year

First player to come back for a 2nd consecutive season on my team. (no idea how I got him in the early 300s last year)

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02-09-2012, 07:49 PM
  #207
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Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
Not to mention Elias is having a great year

First player to come back for a 2nd consecutive season on my team. (no idea how I got him in the early 300s last year)
I think the Stanley Cups on the resume have a lot to do with Elias's reputation, but he is a great 2nd line LW for sure.

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02-09-2012, 07:51 PM
  #208
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Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
I think the Stanley Cups on the resume have a lot to do with Elias's reputation, but he is a great 2nd line LW for sure.
how so? Elias is a good all-around player with decent offense/defense playmaking/goalscoring , loyalty to his franchise , good playoff resume , no attitude problem at all.

what's not to like?

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02-09-2012, 07:54 PM
  #209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
how so? Elias is a good all-around player with decent offense/defense playmaking/goalscoring , loyalty to his franchise , good playoff resume , no attitude problem at all.

what's not to like?
You answered your own question. He's a jack of all trades, master of none. He's very good at a lot of things, but not elite at anything.

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02-09-2012, 07:54 PM
  #210
BenchBrawl
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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
You answered your own question. He's a jack of all trades, master of none. He's very good at a lot of things, but not elite at anything.
pretty much the same can be said about the hossa group we talked about earlier.

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02-09-2012, 07:57 PM
  #211
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
pretty much the same can be said about the hossa group we talked about earlier.
Maybe to Hossa and Alfredsson, but St. Louis is an elite playmaker(6x top 10 if you count this season) and Iginla is an elite power forward.

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02-09-2012, 07:57 PM
  #212
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Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
pretty much the same can be said about the hossa group we talked about earlier.
Hossa and Elias are two differen't animals. Marian has been a much better goalscorer and is physically a more dominant two-way player.

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02-09-2012, 07:57 PM
  #213
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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
Maybe to Hossa and Alfredsson, but St. Louis is an elite playmaker(6x top 10 if you count this season) and Iginla is an elite power forward.
I wish they were available , I would have take them

I took what was in front of me as far as the kind of LWers I wanted for my 2nd line.I could have picked another goal scorer for Oates but they didn't fit that well and had other issues.Elias brings a little bit of everything and will be perfect for this line.

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02-09-2012, 08:51 PM
  #214
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Quote:
Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
Hossa and Elias are two differen't animals. Marian has been a much better goalscorer and is physically a more dominant two-way player.
Their overall offense had been similar. Marian better defensively and Elias better in the playoffs. I see this one as a close call

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02-09-2012, 08:54 PM
  #215
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Originally Posted by BM67 View Post
What added consistency do you get by changing from #2 to #3, back to #2, then to #4?
you get to compare the player in question to a more static standard. I'm not foolish enough to believe that Gretzky's 168 point 2nd place finish in 1989 is just as suitable a comparison as any other. I don't think you are, either, which leads me to believe that you've made yourself a slave to your system instead of looking for ways to make it make more sense.

Any system that tells us 29 players had a score even as high as 50% in 1989, and that 89 did in 1998, is very, very flawed.

Quote:
I didn't choose #2 just for consistency. I chose it because it allows for the #1 guy to get a bonus if he led by a large amount, thus not making all scoring titles equal.
Guess what? the way I do it, doesn't prevent the players outscoring the "standard" by wide amounts from getting credit, either!

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Also for the purpose of using for other leagues, all you need to know is the #2 scorer in a given year and league and the score of the player you are looking at. You don't need a top 10 scorers list, or a goals/game breakdown, or anything else. More data does allow for more context of course.
Yes, but all I have to do is take a spreadsheet and subjectively determine, once, which player's point total makes the most sense as a comparable in any season, and enter it as the comparable for that season. So you're right that slavishly using #2 is easier, but very, very marginally easier, and constitutes an infinitesimal savings of work in the grand scheme of things if one plans to make use of the results on a regular basis going forward.

Quote:
How inconsistent is #2? How inconsistent is #3? Inconsistent compared to what exactly?
#2 is quite inconsistent. You can see so yourself. #3 is a little less inconsistent. #4 even less so. I think #2 is usually consistent enough, but some players throw that off with their crazy totals and the crazy totals they bless their teammates with. that's not rocket science, either.

Quote:
How often do you use a different # over the whole of NHL history?
I don't know what you mean.

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Old
02-09-2012, 08:54 PM
  #216
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Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
You mean he's not the Bobby Clarke of the pre-war era?

Yeah, he's a gritty playmaking center who is solid but unspectacular defensively and a good quality second liner.
reg noble could be the clarke of the pre war era (very good defensive C, high scoring playmaker, dirty and tough), but noble was very fast and clarke was not.

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Originally Posted by BM67 View Post
Keats is also 18th all-time in "normalized penalty minutes" in this 2004 article from the old Daryl Schilling site The Hockey Project:
cleghorn is only 13th.

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Old
02-09-2012, 09:01 PM
  #217
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by BM67 View Post
Keats is also 18th all-time in "normalized penalty minutes" in this 2004 article from the old Daryl Schilling site The Hockey Project: http://web.archive.org/web/20040905011225/http://members.shaw.ca/hbtn/player_study/norm_pen_goon.htm
Nice link, and I like his methodology. Looks much better than an actual career PIM list.

but this page contains my least-favourite quote that keeps popping up in the ATD... I hate it! I want to gouge my eyes out.

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02-09-2012, 09:19 PM
  #218
Nalyd Psycho
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Originally Posted by nik jr View Post
reg noble could be the clarke of the pre war era (very good defensive C, high scoring playmaker, dirty and tough), but noble was very fast and clarke was not.
It's disingenuous to compare anyone to Clarke. I was just ripping on the oversell from last ATD.

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02-09-2012, 09:57 PM
  #219
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Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
I'm curious as to what makes Keats a "great" playmaker? His best goals and assists finishes are about the same. Wouldn't you expect a "great" playmaker to have better assists finishes than his goals?
A 1952 article named him and Elmer Lach as the greatest playmaking centres.

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02-09-2012, 10:18 PM
  #220
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
you get to compare the player in question to a more static standard. I'm not foolish enough to believe that Gretzky's 168 point 2nd place finish in 1989 is just as suitable a comparison as any other. I don't think you are, either, which leads me to believe that you've made yourself a slave to your system instead of looking for ways to make it make more sense.

Any system that tells us 29 players had a score even as high as 50% in 1989, and that 89 did in 1998, is very, very flawed.
This is getting off topic, but if you have to massage a bunch of years to make your "system" fit what you think makes the most sense.. it isn't a system.

It is you choosing what makes sense to you by dismissing data points you don't like.

That is why he was asking you how many times you have to change the number.

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Old
02-09-2012, 10:33 PM
  #221
BenchBrawl
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there's no perfect system , imo a lot of systems can work , the key is to know when to use system A or system B for differant situations.

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02-09-2012, 10:40 PM
  #222
TheDevilMadeMe
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A 1952 article named him and Elmer Lach as the greatest playmaking centres.
It really is strange though because Keats' goalscoring stats are very good (and the anecdotes don't talk about then) while his playmaking stats are also... merely very good (but probably not Neely as good as the anecdotes which rave about then).

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02-09-2012, 10:57 PM
  #223
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
you get to compare the player in question to a more static standard. I'm not foolish enough to believe that Gretzky's 168 point 2nd place finish in 1989 is just as suitable a comparison as any other. I don't think you are, either, which leads me to believe that you've made yourself a slave to your system instead of looking for ways to make it make more sense.

Any system that tells us 29 players had a score even as high as 50% in 1989, and that 89 did in 1998, is very, very flawed.



Guess what? the way I do it, doesn't prevent the players outscoring the "standard" by wide amounts from getting credit, either!



Yes, but all I have to do is take a spreadsheet and subjectively determine, once, which player's point total makes the most sense as a comparable in any season, and enter it as the comparable for that season. So you're right that slavishly using #2 is easier, but very, very marginally easier, and constitutes an infinitesimal savings of work in the grand scheme of things if one plans to make use of the results on a regular basis going forward.



#2 is quite inconsistent. You can see so yourself. #3 is a little less inconsistent. #4 even less so. I think #2 is usually consistent enough, but some players throw that off with their crazy totals and the crazy totals they bless their teammates with. that's not rocket science, either.



I don't know what you mean.
How many times did you use the #2, #3, #4, #5 over all seasons?

How can you compare from season to season? Gretzky's 183 points in 1986-87 is 169.44% of the #2 that season, but Lemieux's 199 points in 1988-89 are 173.04% of the #5 that season. Is that a fair comparison that shows that Lemieux in 89 was more dominant than Gretzky in 87?

How many people have your spreadsheet? I see several people trying to use your method, but I don't see anybody using your numbers.

I see seasons with a change of over 10% between the #10 scorers totals from season to season even in the dead puck era. I really don't have a problem seeing the same thing at the top.

Straight #2 gives the #10 an average of 79.51% and the #20 an average of 70.56% over the last 25 seasons. I see that as a fairly reasonable average, so I don't feel that the system is broken by a couple of strange years that can be noted and commented on individually.

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02-09-2012, 11:02 PM
  #224
BenchBrawl
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
It really is strange though because Keats' goalscoring stats are very good (and the anecdotes don't talk about then) while his playmaking stats are also... merely very good (but probably not Neely as good as the anecdotes which rave about then).
probably an exagerrated article in this case.

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02-09-2012, 11:08 PM
  #225
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
It really is strange though because Keats' goalscoring stats are very good (and the anecdotes don't talk about then) while his playmaking stats are also... merely very good (but probably not Neely as good as the anecdotes which rave about then).
My vs#2 numbers for Keats give him a yearly average of 75.7% in assists and 69% in goals. When I used the Idealized Points method from The Hockey Compendium to create his career stats I ended up with a line of 685 GP 350 G 531 A 881 Pts. So no he doesn't look like the greatest of passers, but no method can account for the assists that weren't handed out back then. Of course playmaking and passing may not be the same thing.

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