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Old
02-08-2012, 09:26 PM
  #101
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At this point I do not see them making the playoffs.
So why bother? Is that what you're saying?

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02-08-2012, 09:29 PM
  #102
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You know, Static, your argument for Visnovsky seems to contradict itself.

Visnovsky is only going to regress, and he's on the edge of a cliff... but he's going to get us the sun and the moon.

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02-08-2012, 09:32 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
So why bother? Is that what you're saying?
I'm saying one year of Visnovsky would be benifitial to a team with cup or deep playoff aspirations. I don't see that here, so his one year at a discount price means nothing to me. His value is in how he can make the team better after next season from trading him.

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02-08-2012, 09:34 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
You know, Static, your argument for Visnovsky seems to contradict itself.

Visnovsky is only going to regress, and he's on the edge of a cliff... but he's going to get us the sun and the moon.
You're coming dangerously close to a false dichotomy, here.

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02-08-2012, 09:34 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
You know, Static, your argument for Visnovsky seems to contradict itself.

Visnovsky is only going to regress, and he's on the edge of a cliff... but he's going to get us the sun and the moon.
Because we are selling before his decline is obvious. Its Murray banking on him declining versus other GMs banking on him holding up for however long they hold him for.

Waiting until the obvious is when a GM loses.

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02-08-2012, 09:38 PM
  #106
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You're coming dangerously close to a false dichotomy, here.
I'm just curious how it works. The other GM's aren't going to just blindly pick up Visnovsky. That's what scouting is for. I don't think he can have it both ways. Either Visnovsky is valuable, or he isn't, and if he's valuable holding on to him makes sense, unless the trade is really good.

We're not smarter than the GM's. If they see what Static believes he sees, then Visnovsky's value will show it.

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02-08-2012, 09:39 PM
  #107
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Because we are selling before his decline is obvious. Its Murray banking on him declining versus other GMs banking on him holding up for however long they hold him for.

Waiting until the obvious is when a GM loses.
As opposed to giving up on the season now, before even giving the GM a chance to make adjustments?

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02-08-2012, 09:42 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
I'm just curious how it works. The other GM's aren't going to just blindly pick up Visnovsky. That's what scouting is for. I don't think he can have it both ways. Either Visnovsky is valuable, or he isn't, and if he's valuable holding on to him makes sense, unless the trade is really good.

We're not smarter than the GM's. If they see what Static believes he sees, then Visnovsky's value will show it.
Did you really miss the whole Kaberle thing?

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02-08-2012, 09:43 PM
  #109
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Did you really miss the whole Kaberle thing?
No, I didn't. Do you think the GM's did?

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02-08-2012, 09:45 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
As opposed to giving up on the season now, before even giving the GM a chance to make adjustments?
He's allowed to make adjustments and trade Visnovsky at the same time. There is nothing that says the return he gets from Visnovsky can't be used to improve the second line, or wherever, and improvements that will last longer than next year.

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02-08-2012, 09:48 PM
  #111
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No, I didn't. Do you think the GM's did?
Do you think that will stop GMs from gambling? We see stupid moves every single year at the deadline, the draft, and free agency. Hopefully GMs take your point of view and see his assist totals after his injury and think he's fine.

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02-08-2012, 09:49 PM
  #112
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He's allowed to make adjustments and trade Visnovsky at the same time. There is nothing that says the return he gets from Visnovsky can't be used to improve the second line, or wherever, and improvements that will last longer than next year.
Of course he is, and if he does that, I'd probably be okay with the trade. Of course, he'd still need to replace Visnovsky. Anaheim isn't going to help their breakout by losing one of their best PMD.

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02-08-2012, 09:52 PM
  #113
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Do you think that will stop GMs from gambling? We see stupid moves every single year at the deadline, the draft, and free agency. Hopefully GMs take your point of view and see his assist totals after his injury and think he's fine.
Here's the thing, Static: Visnovsky isn't a one and done player for a GM. You have to worry about, not just the rest of this season, but next season as well. That's going to temper any GM's willingness to gamble.

You might be right. There might be GM's out there willing to take the gamble. Me? I don't think it is much of a gamble. Visnovsky was injured to start the season, and his play has definitely been better since he got healthy.

I just don't think Murray should be so quick to trade Visnovsky, when there is plenty of time to look for the right deal. I'll reitterate what I said before - Time is on our side. If the right deal doesn't come up at this deadline, there's the draft. After the draft, there's next season's deadline. A healthy season of Lubo could do wonders for his value.

Edit: While also putting Anaheim into a better position to replace Visnovsky.

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02-08-2012, 09:59 PM
  #114
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I can predict he will get worse based on his decline this year, age, and injury history. It's almost irresponsible to not make that prediction.

And I really, really disagree that having a year left hurts his value. We weren't contenders when he was traded here, it's hypocritical to think that only contenders would inquire. As for "limiting" his options, do you see the standings? How many teams are out of it? Four? Five? How many dmen are on the market?

Teams can just as easily send an expiring contract this way to make up for his cap hit, I dont see that as a major deal.
You're not making any sense at all. Obviously non-contenders will be the ones bidding on him - because the big budget cap teams can't afford a 6M cap hit for what will be a 3rd pairing D for next year. Next year, as a RENTAL, the cap teams ALSO can afford him without borking their salary structure for the following year.

Your entire argument revolves around YOU being smarter than every GM in the league. GM's will gamble on a playoff series. Successful ones don't spend 10% of the cap for a 3rd pairing D the following year. Either you are wrong and he won't decline, in which case there are more bidders next year, or you're right, and it requires a GM on a playoff hopeful is an idiot.

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02-08-2012, 10:00 PM
  #115
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I caught myself typing the name, DVM.

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02-08-2012, 10:02 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by Ducks DVM View Post
You're not making any sense at all. Obviously non-contenders will be the ones bidding on him - because the big budget cap teams can't afford a 6M cap hit for what will be a 3rd pairing D for next year. Next year, as a RENTAL, the cap teams ALSO can afford him without borking their salary structure for the following year.

Your entire argument revolves around YOU being smarter than every GM in the league. GM's will gamble on a playoff series. Successful ones don't spend 10% of the cap for a 3rd pairing D the following year. Either you are wrong and he won't decline, in which case there are more bidders next year, or you're right, and it requires a GM on a playoff hopeful is an idiot.
This pretty much sums it up.

The next deadline seems to be the ideal time for teams to pick him up.

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02-08-2012, 10:09 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by Ducks DVM View Post
You're not making any sense at all. Obviously non-contenders will be the ones bidding on him - because the big budget cap teams can't afford a 6M cap hit for what will be a 3rd pairing D for next year. Next year, as a RENTAL, the cap teams ALSO can afford him without borking their salary structure for the following year.

Your entire argument revolves around YOU being smarter than every GM in the league. GM's will gamble on a playoff series. Successful ones don't spend 10% of the cap for a 3rd pairing D the following year. Either you are wrong and he won't decline, in which case there are more bidders next year, or you're right, and it requires a GM on a playoff hopeful is an idiot.
Third pairing? Again, teams can send temporary salary back via impending free agents, and not every team is up against the cap. Furthermore, there is an extreme influx of playoff hopeful teams, increasing the amount of potential bidders, and with so few quality dmen available, lessening the options for those bidders. That's a nice market for us.

As for "being smarter" than GMs, neither of us "know" what they are thinking. I'm just going by a combination of precedent and what I would do.

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02-08-2012, 10:21 PM
  #118
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A quick example: Rangers will have around seven million in space at the deadline. They can send Wolski back, who makes 3.8 million, which is more than half of Vis' cap hit. Wolski is an RFA next year, and we can just let him walk.

Wolski has almost no value, so he wouldn't hurt the return for Visnovsky. The Rangers are just one possibility, and are much closer to the cap than most teams.

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02-08-2012, 10:39 PM
  #119
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A quick example: Rangers will have around seven million in space at the deadline. They can send Wolski back, who makes 3.8 million, which is more than half of Vis' cap hit. Wolski is an RFA next year, and we can just let him walk.

Wolski has almost no value, so he wouldn't hurt the return for Visnovsky. The Rangers are just one possibility, and are much closer to the cap than most teams.
And then, next season, Vis will play for their 3rd pairing. With a 6M cap hit. So not only do they lose the ability to replace Wolski's expiring contract with a functional winger on a goal starved team, they are actually even further in the hole. Lundquist can't save them every year.

Don't even argue he'd be 3rd pairing there. They have one of the best top 4D in the league.

Also, Wolski has negative value to the Ducks. He's well overpaid, so they won't qualify him. So what else do you think the Rangers are going to add to make this worthwhile? There's no way in hell Visnovsky will yield Krieder.

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02-08-2012, 10:48 PM
  #120
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And then, next season, Vis will play for their 3rd pairing. With a 6M cap hit. So not only do they lose the ability to replace Wolski's expiring contract with a functional winger on a goal starved team, they ate actually even further in the hole. Lundquist can't save them every year.

Don't even argue he'd be 3rd pairing there. They have one of the best top 4D in the league.

Also, Wolski has negative value to the Ducks. He's well overpaid, so they won't qualify him. So what else do you think the Rangers ate going to add to make this worthwhile? There's no way in hell Visnovsky will yield Krieder.
We have no idea where he'd play, it's just one example of how getting around cap issues isn't nearly as tough as you're saying. Go look at cap geek for yourself and see the space teams will have. Even if they are budget teams vis is only making three million, as you all like to remind me.

Wolski doesnt have value, and we would let him walk....just like I wrote in my post. I'd ask for their first and Christian Thomas, or something along those lines.

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02-08-2012, 10:55 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
This pretty much sums it up.

The next deadline seems to be the ideal time for teams to pick him up.
I disagree if a team who almost always makes the playoffs and only need a solid d man to improve their team in the GMs eyes, I can totally see him being dealt. Having a solid d man on the roster for a playoff run and another season would
Be ideal for any playoff team....and bonus!!! No contract issues!

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02-08-2012, 10:58 PM
  #122
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I disagree if a team who almost always makes the playoffs and only need a solid d man to improve their team in the GMs eyes, I can totally see him being dealt. Having a solid d man on the roster for a playoff run and another season would
Be ideal for any playoff team....and bonus!!! No contract issues!
You're missing the point. Having one extra year on his contract means there are more restrictions. A team with enough room for part of this season may not have room next season, when his salary cap hit isn't diminished.

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02-08-2012, 11:02 PM
  #123
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And then, next season, Vis will play for their 3rd pairing. With a 6M cap hit. So not only do they lose the ability to replace Wolski's expiring contract with a functional winger on a goal starved team, they are actually even further in the hole. Lundquist can't save them every year.

Don't even argue he'd be 3rd pairing there. They have one of the best top 4D in the league.

Also, Wolski has negative value to the Ducks. He's well overpaid, so they won't qualify him. So what else do you think the Rangers are going to add to make this worthwhile? There's no way in hell Visnovsky will yield Krieder.
The Rags will still need him next year. They have an amazing group of stay-at-home types, and MDZ is a very good two-way d-man, but Erixon isn't going to step in as their PP QB.

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02-08-2012, 11:45 PM
  #124
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And then, next season, Vis will play for their 3rd pairing. With a 6M cap hit. So not only do they lose the ability to replace Wolski's expiring contract with a functional winger on a goal starved team, they are actually even further in the hole. Lundquist can't save them every year.

Don't even argue he'd be 3rd pairing there. They have one of the best top 4D in the league.

Also, Wolski has negative value to the Ducks. He's well overpaid, so they won't qualify him. So what else do you think the Rangers are going to add to make this worthwhile? There's no way in hell Visnovsky will yield Krieder.

I watch the Rangers frequently and Lubo is better than Del Zotto. Ill take Staal, Girardi and McDonagh for sure though. Throw in Sauer and that be the best defense 1-6 in the NHL.

I agree they would be more interested in a winger though, theyre powerplay is awful and they could really use a scorer behind Gaborik.

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02-09-2012, 12:00 AM
  #125
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Why are you guys arguing if Lubo's extra year hurts or not? There's absolutely no way to know who is right and who is wrong. Some will look at it as a positive and others a negative. There's just no way to know which team views it as positive and which as negative. Non cap teams that are contenders will love it, cap teams may not. Arguing who is right and wrong over that subject is pointless.

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