Crunching the Numbers: What AV should do with the Goalies in the Playoffs
Like many fans I have found our goaltending situation this year very interesting. And there have been many suggestions for what do do with Luongo/Schneider in this year's playoffs. The idea that you have to pick one guy and run with him gets thrown around quite a bit, others think they should pick one until he falters and then go with the other. I have a different suggestion, assuming we get home ice advantage throughout the playoffs (which I believe we have a very good shot at based on our remaining schedule) I believe that we should play Luongo the Home Games, and Schneider the Road Games.
Luongo gets a lot of heat for his playoff performances, but I have found some similarities over his past few season's that suggest that if we have home ice advantage he plays lights out at home. Or if we don't have home ice he has still played his best hockey in games 1,2 and 5 (which would be home games if we had home ice advantage).
2011 we had Home Ice Advantage throughout the Playoffs
2011 Home Save % = .920
2011 Road Save % = .863
2011 Finals Home Save % = .946
2011 Finals Road Save % = .738
2010 we had Home Ice Advantage vs. LA but didn't against Chicago
2010 Home Save % = .881
2010 Road Save % = .897
Overall unimpressive numbers, but as mentioned above if we isolate games 1,2 and 5 from each series and find his save %.
Games 1, 2 and 5 Save % = .934
Games 3, 4 and 6 Save % = .844
Quite an impressive difference, could speak volumes about how he mentally prepares for playoff series', maybe that plane ride after games 1 and 2 kills him, but can refocus himself going into game 5.... who knows!!! But those are the numbers.
2009 we had Home Ice Advantage throughout the Playoffs
2009 Home Save % = .920
2009 Road Save % = .907
2007 we had Home Ice Advantage vs. STL but didn't against Anaheim
2007 Home Save % = .928
2007 Road Save % = .946
Now 2007 is quite a ways back so this could possibly be considered an outlier in the data, but same as 2009 I averaged game 1, 2 and 5 Save %'s becuase we did't have home ice in Anaheim.
Games 1, 2 and 5 Save % = .943
Games 3, 4 (No game 6) Save % - .928
So once again it shows the pattern that Luongo plays better in the Game 1, 2 and 5 whether he is at home or on the road.
Overall Numbers Last 3 Years
Home Save % = .907
Road Save % = .889
Games 1,2,5 and 7 Save % = .925
Games 3, 4 and 6 Save % = .871
Overall Numbers Career
Home Save % = .912
Road Save % = .903
Games 1,2,5 and 7 Save % = .929
Games 3, 4 and 6 Save % = .886
Based on these numbers I believe our best plan going into the Playoffs is to play Luongo the Home Games 1,2,5 and 7 and Schneider can play on the Road 3, 4, and 6. What do you think?
Game 1's: 9-1, 3 SO, 0.951 SV%, 1.51 GAA Game 2's: 5-5, 1 SO, 0.927 SV%, 2.16 GAA Game 3's: 5-5, 0 SO, 0.891 SV%, 3.26 GAA Game 4's: 5-5, 0 SO, 0.892 SV%, 3.25 GAA Game 5's: 4-5, 1 SO, 0.936 SV%, 2.05 GAA Game 6's: 2-5, 0 SO, 0.878 SV%, 3.72 GAA Game 7's: 2-1, 0 SO, 0.931 SV%, 1.62 GAA
Let Luongo play till he bombs. Then let Schneider play until he bombs. Rinse and repeat.
Unless Minnesota or Boston come into play. If so, go with Schneider in the away games.
Quote:
Originally Posted by EricTheGiant
It's pretty simple. Put Luongo in and if he is not good, put Schneider in. Keep going with either guy until they play bad.
I'm suggesting that using this formula we could greatly reduce the chances of Luongo having even 1 "bad game". Which can be everything in a 7 game series.
I'm suggesting that using this formula we could greatly reduce the chances of Luongo having even 1 "bad game". Which can be everything in a 7 game series.
I just don't put much merit in that stuff. Luongo played great in game 7 in Chicago and sucked in game 7 in the SCF in Vancouver. In my opinion he's capable of sucking or being brilliant any game no matter where it falls from 1-7. What's more telling in my opinion is how he seems to suck more in certain cities.
Game 1's: 9-1, 3 SO, 0.951 SV%, 1.51 GAA Game 2's: 5-5, 1 SO, 0.927 SV%, 2.16 GAA Game 3's: 5-5, 0 SO, 0.891 SV%, 3.26 GAA Game 4's: 5-5, 0 SO, 0.892 SV%, 3.25 GAA Game 5's: 4-5, 1 SO, 0.936 SV%, 2.05 GAA Game 6's: 2-5, 0 SO, 0.878 SV%, 3.72 GAA Game 7's: 2-1, 0 SO, 0.931 SV%, 1.62 GAA
good lord the game 2 and game 5 records are ****ing pathetic - we should not be 50% or below 50% when he puts up a ******* .936
Game 1's: 9-1, 3 SO, 0.951 SV%, 1.51 GAA Game 2's: 5-5, 1 SO, 0.927 SV%, 2.16 GAA Game 3's: 5-5, 0 SO, 0.891 SV%, 3.26 GAA Game 4's: 5-5, 0 SO, 0.892 SV%, 3.25 GAA Game 5's: 4-5, 1 SO, 0.936 SV%, 2.05 GAA Game 6's: 2-5, 0 SO, 0.878 SV%, 3.72 GAA Game 7's: 2-1, 0 SO, 0.931 SV%, 1.62 GAA
Looks like Game 6's are by far his worst. Other than the 2010 Conference Semifinals (against the Hawks), all of those have been on the road. And the 2 wins have been series clinchers (against the Kings and Predators).
Game 1's: 9-1, 3 SO, 0.951 SV%, 1.51 GAA Game 2's: 5-5, 1 SO, 0.927 SV%, 2.16 GAA Game 3's: 5-5, 0 SO, 0.891 SV%, 3.26 GAA Game 4's: 5-5, 0 SO, 0.892 SV%, 3.25 GAA Game 5's: 4-5, 1 SO, 0.936 SV%, 2.05 GAA Game 6's: 2-5, 0 SO, 0.878 SV%, 3.72 GAA Game 7's: 2-1, 0 SO, 0.931 SV%, 1.62 GAA
From what get out of this is Roberto plays home games and Schneider plays away games. That would be an entertaining (interesting to say the least) system to see.
I like this (or something like it) but I just don't see it happening. If they had any kind of plan for this they wouldn't be keeping Schneider on the bench for 14 and 21 days during the regular season imo.
Let Luongo play till he bombs. Then let Schneider play until he bombs. Rinse and repeat.
Unless Minnesota or Boston come into play. If so, go with Schneider in the away games.
I agree with this. On the surface, the numbers presented and the logic that corresponds to them is great. However, all the numbers presented are based on the fact that Luongo has started every game of the series (except for the game 7 against the Hawks). Not starting someone when their previous game was good in the playoffs will have an effect on their psyche, whether it be Luongo, Thomas, or any goalie. Who knows how he'll play after being forced to sit out a game. The theory could totally backfire if Schneider plays like garbage in a game 3 and Luongo comes back in for a game 4 and plays like crap as well.
Whichever goalie is the starter though is going to require a bit of leeway though. A lot of people are suggesting putting in Schneider after Luongo has one bad game, which I disagree with. Putting him in after two bad games is understandable, but to expect any goalie to be lights out for an entire playoff run is somewhat ridiculous. You don't want to have to run into the situation Philly ran into last year during the playoffs where the confidence of both goalies was absolutely wrecked.
From what get out of this is Roberto plays home games and Schneider plays away games. That would be an entertaining (interesting to say the least) system to see.
I don't see it working, though, because goalies are real people too. It's just too much of a mind**** to go back and forth between goalies in the playoffs like that.
You ride Luongo until you hit a rough patch where you think it's his fault and then if Schneider comes in a plays well, you ride him.
I wouldn't mind riding Luongo all series until we have a chance to close out the series, that's where I'd welcome Schneider to close it out and give Luongo some rest for doing all the work. Kind of a baseball approach to it where the starter goes as far as he can and keeps the game (in this case, series) close, then the closer (Schneider) comes in and ends it to give the starter time off.
In all honesty, though this makes the most sense, I just don't see AV implementing it. I have a bad feeling that we're going to get into a similar situation as last year. Luongo will struggle, and AV will allow him to do so hoping he recovers. When they do put Schneider in, it'll be for one game, then they will put Luongo back in hoping for a bounce back because he's their #1.
Though it'd be great if they followed a strategy for the playing goalie, it's unlikely that'll happen. It'll take atleast 2 games failed by the Luongo to get pulled and switched with Schneider. And it'll take a period for Schneider to have faith lost in him by AV. It's sad, but true.
In all honesty, though this makes the most sense, I just don't see AV implementing it. I have a bad feeling that we're going to get into a similar situation as last year. Luongo will struggle, and AV will allow him to do so hoping he recovers. When they do put Schneider in, it'll be for one game, then they will put Luongo back in hoping for a bounce back because he's their #1.
Though it'd be great if they followed a strategy for the playing goalie, it's unlikely that'll happen. It'll take atleast 2 games failed by the Luongo to get pulled and switched with Schneider. And it'll take a period for Schneider to have faith lost in him by AV. It's sad, but true.
I think AV will have no issue at all to go to Schneider if he wants too. I mean, we kept Schneider for that reason, and I'm sure it wouldn't make MG happy if Schneider just sat on the bench while Luongo struggled, lost games, was fatigued etc.
Also, the fact that Schneider played against Boston and other good teams, shows that AV isn't scared to play Schneider in big games vs big teams.
schneider shouldnt even be near anywhere in the playoffs. he cost us game 6 in round 1 with an absolutely atrocious giveaway when we had the game in the bag,and then after the PS goal got too nervous and "cramped" up. If he played game 7 we would be out the first round.
yea lets hedge our bets on a guy who had less than 50 starts in the NHL who has proven nothing,has looked average most of the time,and has been blown out by good teams, and who couldnt even finish a game because he couldnt handle the pressure.
schneider shouldnt even be near anywhere in the playoffs. he cost us game 6 in round 1 with an absolutely atrocious giveaway when we had the game in the bag,and then after the PS goal got too nervous and "cramped" up. If he played game 7 we would be out the first round.
yea lets hedge our bets on a guy who had less than 50 starts in the NHL who has proven nothing,has looked average most of the time,and has been blown out by good teams, and who couldnt even finish a game because he couldnt handle the pressure.
I recall the team suddenly throwing Schneider into his first playoff game out of nowhere, and him playing lights out besides that one horrible gaffe (which wasn't all him, the defensemen was at fault too) and that penalty shot breakaway goal.
The only reason he ever got in there in the first place was because Luongo completely **** the bed in the previous games, so it's not really fair to Schneider to say that he should be nowhere near the playoffs when the other guy had a far worse game in the two previous.
And how in god's name has Schneider "looked average most of the time"?
That said, rather than splitting them 50 50 like you guys are suggesting, I think you need to favor Luongo at least a bit more for now. Play Luongo until he has an awful game (never using bad defense as an excuse), and switch to Schneider IMMEDIATELY when this happens until he runs into problems. Unless Schneider completely outclasses Luongo, start with Roberto in the next round even if Schneider closed out the previous one. That's how I would handle it. If Luongo plays the way he can, he should be given the benefit of the doubt and be allowed to play the entire series, none of this home-games, road-games business, and Schneider should ONLY be in if Luongo doesn't look up to par (which seems likely to happen for at least a few games).
If you're really planning to use Schneider significantly in the playoffs, they aren't using him enough in the regular season.
Last edited by Shareefruck: 02-10-2012 at 02:57 AM.
schneider shouldnt even be near anywhere in the playoffs. he cost us game 6 in round 1 with an absolutely atrocious giveaway when we had the game in the bag,and then after the PS goal got too nervous and "cramped" up. If he played game 7 we would be out the first round.
yea lets hedge our bets on a guy who had less than 50 starts in the NHL who has proven nothing,has looked average most of the time,and has been blown out by good teams, and who couldnt even finish a game because he couldnt handle the pressure.
I think they should rotate goalies in the playoffs. Let them both know ahead of time, and start the rotation in games 1 and 2, then don't do more than 2 games in a row for either goalie. If Luongo plays better on a slightly lighter schedule, there's no reason that ceases to be true in playoffs. Give Schneider some time (aka, we really want you as part of a 1A/1B tandem) and keep both goalies fresh and sharp.
Let Luongo play till he bombs. Then let Schneider play until he bombs. Rinse and repeat.
Unless Minnesota or Boston come into play. If so, go with Schneider in the away games.
I disagree with this. I think we should cycle the goalies a bit more to take the pressure off of each of them. If Luongo isn't relied upon EVERY game, it takes the mental pressure off. If he goes into game 1 knowing that Schneider will get game 2, all he has to do is worry about going out there and winning the game. It really takes the big picture out of this and allows the goalies to focus on the often overused phrase: "one game at a time."
If it were me, I'd always give Luongo game 1 at home. If he plays LIGHTS out, I'd maybe give him game 2. I'd definitely throw Schneider in for game 3 though, if for nothing else to take some of the pressure off. Obviously there's no set in stone formula, but I'd try to play Luongo about 70% of the time in the playoffs and Schneider 30% of the time.
I love your sense of humour.
