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Crunching the Numbers: What AV should do with the Goalies in the Playoffs

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Old
02-10-2012, 03:06 PM
  #51
VanEric
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Originally Posted by Drop the Sopel View Post
Yeah, Schneider's role on the Canucks sure isn't relevant here in a discussion about Luongo and Schneider? Don't be such a whiny nitz.
That's not what this topic was about. Also, answer the question. Should the determination about who plays be about managing fatigue or based on performance?

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02-10-2012, 03:12 PM
  #52
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Great topic. And usually this problem will not come up because, lets face it, when do teams ever have two really good goalies?

Since the Vancouvers do, this brings up the option and it is a good option because by, let's say, Game 7 of the Finals the teams will potentially be on their 28th game of the post season. Of course the goalies will not say they are tired, but they will be tired after so many consecutive starts.

So I would think that, just as in the regular season, if Schneider is still around, he would get every third or fourth game to keep Luongo fresh.

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02-10-2012, 03:14 PM
  #53
VanEric
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It's not like the regular season, though. Every third or fourth game in the regular season is essentially a random game. You're really going to change goalies if Luongo wins the first two or three games of a series?

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02-10-2012, 03:20 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VanEric View Post
That's not what this topic was about. Also, answer the question. Should the determination about who plays be about managing fatigue or based on performance?
Both factor into how you manage the position. If one of the goalies has a poor game it's an opportunity to go to the other guy. Doing so will lighten the workload and help manage fatigue. You're not going to switch goalies up after a strong performance so it makes sense to do so after a poor one.

If you're not open to having somewhat of a platoon situation with Schneider and want to use him like a traditional backup you're better off moving him and strengthening the rest of the roster IMO. Seems pretty relevant to the discussion...

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02-10-2012, 03:29 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by VanEric View Post
It's not like the regular season, though. Every third or fourth game in the regular season is essentially a random game. You're really going to change goalies if Luongo wins the first two or three games of a series?
If you believe that Schneider gives you a chance to win, and if you see your team going all the way to the Finals, then, sure, you play him.

In fact the ideal situation to play Schneider might be when the team is up by two or three wins, as in your scenario above. The team has a cushion, Luongo gets a chance to unwind, and the team will be protective of the kid minder and could play even more conscientiously. It will mess up the other team's approach to some extent also, since they have prepared extensively to face Luongo and perhaps less extensively to face a goalie with different qualities.

My feeling, and this is only my feeling, is that platooning Schneider in with Luongo will keep the main guy fresher and healthier and in the end can only be to his benefit.

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02-10-2012, 03:31 PM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drop the Sopel View Post
If you're not open to having somewhat of a platoon situation with Schneider and want to use him like a traditional backup you're better off moving him and strengthening the rest of the roster IMO. Seems pretty relevant to the discussion...
I don't think it'll be either of those two situations. I can't see them going into the playoffs with the idea of switching up goalies a bunch of times, but at the same time it's not going to be "Luongo or bust" like it was when they had Dany Sabourin playing backup.

Assuming Luongo continues his strong play through to the end of the season I imagine he'll start the playoffs. If he plays poorly they'll go with Schneider and run with him and that's fine. I just disagree with the idea that it's smart to switch up goalies after one poor effort.

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02-10-2012, 03:33 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
I don't think it'll be either of those two situations. I can't see them going into the playoffs with the idea of switching up goalies a bunch of times, but at the same time it's not going to be "Luongo or bust" like it was when they had Dany Sabourin playing backup.

Assuming Luongo continues his strong play through to the end of the season I imagine he'll start the playoffs. If he plays poorly they'll go with Schneider and run with him and that's fine. I just disagree with the idea that it's smart to switch up goalies after one poor effort.
So if Schneider comes in and has a poor outing does he also start the next game?

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02-10-2012, 03:36 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drop the Sopel View Post
So if Schneider comes in and has a poor outing does he also start the next game?
That's impossible to say without actually witnessing the games. Though if Luongo has 2 bad games and then Schneider comes in and does the same I'd probably look elsewhere as to the cause; most likely the porous defense.

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02-10-2012, 04:12 PM
  #59
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I can't believe people are STILL giving the fatigue excuse to Luongo.

If he's not capable of playing well through a playoff run (I think he is not) then trade him. Don't keep reducing his GP in some vain attempt to cover up the fact that he's too mentally weak to get it done.

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02-10-2012, 04:17 PM
  #60
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What about splitting the road games? Let Schneider take game 2 or three, depending on whether or not the Nucks have the home ice advantage. Louie starts the series regardless.

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02-10-2012, 05:22 PM
  #61
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I think AV will try to get Schneider into at least 1 game early in the playoffs just so that he is not stone cold if they need him later on. But realistically, Luongo is our present and future in net, so AV will ride him in the playoffs until / unless he falters.

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02-10-2012, 06:19 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
That's impossible to say without actually witnessing the games. Though if Luongo has 2 bad games and then Schneider comes in and does the same I'd probably look elsewhere as to the cause; most likely the porous defense.
If Luongo has two poor games in a row and Schneider comes in and has a poor game, we're likely eliminated from the playoffs.

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02-10-2012, 06:36 PM
  #63
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Schneider should go in when we're up two games in the series or if Luongo has two bad games in a row. For example if Lu wins games 1 and 2, play Schneider game 3 just to keep Lu from being overworked. I'm just as confident in Schneider to win that third game as I am Luongo so it's not like I think the decision hurts us. Likewise if Lu loses two straight games we give Schneider a chance to play until he loses. I feel like this strategy would keep both goalies sharp and at the top of their games.

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02-10-2012, 10:12 PM
  #64
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Wow were actually allowed to discuss using schneider in playoffs here without being insulted like on CDC? I was under the impression im the only canucks fan that suggested using schneider in playoffs even though I assume thats why were keeping him this season.

Anyway the way i see it is schneider is typically better on the road and lou at home, i would lend that idea to who starts, also taking into consideration previous game performance. If lou posts a fantastic game and they head on the road, start him, if he has only a decent game, start schneider on the road, and vice versa.

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02-10-2012, 10:25 PM
  #65
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schneider shouldnt even be near anywhere in the playoffs. he cost us game 6 in round 1 with an absolutely atrocious giveaway when we had the game in the bag,and then after the PS goal got too nervous and "cramped" up. If he played game 7 we would be out the first round.

yea lets hedge our bets on a guy who had less than 50 starts in the NHL who has proven nothing,has looked average most of the time,and has been blown out by good teams, and who couldnt even finish a game because he couldnt handle the pressure.
What is this, I don't even..

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02-10-2012, 10:25 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by VanEric View Post
That's not what this topic was about. Also, answer the question. Should the determination about who plays be about managing fatigue or based on performance?
Both.

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02-10-2012, 10:28 PM
  #67
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Someone should compile a bunch of really small statistical samples and make some sweeping conclusions based on them.

I wonder if there are any games we should bench the Sedins for

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02-10-2012, 11:13 PM
  #68
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I think playing both goalies would be a good idea, especially if the Canucks do go far into the playoffs. It's best if they can keep their goalie(s) fresh and rested, since they can't do so with the other rooster players. From what I remembered last year, the Canucks were pretty exhausted once they got to the final round and it showed.

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02-11-2012, 01:05 AM
  #69
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This team is going to live and die with Luongo because AV feels like he owes his job to him and his contract makes him unmovable. Gillis isn't going to ask the guy to waive his no trade. Because he isn't going anywhere it would be stupid to let Schneider get in there and show him up. If Luongo bombs badly Schneider might get in there but the rope is so long with Luongo it will be a hail mary. For better or worse Luongo is our guy.

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02-11-2012, 01:17 AM
  #70
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Statistically... Good attempt but really the sample sizes are too small to mean anything.

There are statistics that are facts, and statistics that are predictive. What you posted are facts; doesn't have any predictive value though.

On Friday games, Luongo is 0-3 this year, 3.42gaa, 0.883sv%. Every other day of the week he's over 0.910. Should we sit him every Friday as well? (Friday last year was one of Luongo's best days of the week.)

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02-11-2012, 03:31 AM
  #71
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So what if one goalie plays poorly but he gets the win? Do you still keep him in?

I also don't see AV going to Schneider in the playoffs. I just don't. He's always going to give "his guy" the chance to bounce back. But IMO you give him more of a chance to bounce back and win by resting. Last year's run was a grind on him, and I suspect that it wasn't only because we played 25 games.

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02-11-2012, 11:10 AM
  #72
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
This team is going to live and die with Luongo because AV feels like he owes his job to him and his contract makes him unmovable. Gillis isn't going to ask the guy to waive his no trade. Because he isn't going anywhere it would be stupid to let Schneider get in there and show him up. If Luongo bombs badly Schneider might get in there but the rope is so long with Luongo it will be a hail mary. For better or worse Luongo is our guy.
Yeah, like if the Canucks had a 3-0 lead and then lost two games and Luongo didn't look good, there's just no way Schneider would get the start in Game 6 because AV and Gillis wouldn't let it happen.


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02-11-2012, 12:45 PM
  #73
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Save % is almost meaningless over a small sample.

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02-11-2012, 01:20 PM
  #74
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Luongo's stats also reflect how our team plays in those games.

We usually come out fairly strong in the first game of any series.

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02-11-2012, 01:33 PM
  #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Verviticus View Post
good lord the game 2 and game 5 records are ****ing pathetic - we should not be 50% or below 50% when he puts up a ******* .936
That's what I take from this.

Sample size is too small to comment on Sv%.

Luongo has good and bad games on the road and home.

The stats ignore the bigger part. Current form is much more important than what someone did 2-3 years ago. This is what a coach does.


Last edited by rye&ginger: 02-11-2012 at 01:39 PM.
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