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Alberta Elections Thread

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Old
03-28-2012, 04:27 PM
  #101
thome_26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Moose View Post
Updated projections:

If the Liberals, NDs and AB Party ran some joint candidates in the cities they'd be able to win a few seats! But that also presumes that Raj Sherman has more in common with Brian Mason than he does with many of the Tories (in the pejorative sense, not the academic sense) which obviously isn't the case.

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03-28-2012, 06:48 PM
  #102
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I don't put alot of stock in these early polls. Last election these polls were saying there was going to be a PC minority and we ended up with the largest PC caucus since the days of Laugheed.

To this point I have only seen two parties campaigning in the Drayton Valley-Calmar riding, the incumbent Diana McQueen and Dean Shular from the Wild Rose Party.

It has been traditionally been a stronghold for the PC, last election the PC votes tripled the number of votes the 2nd place Green Party had, and I don't see it changing any this time around.

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03-28-2012, 11:52 PM
  #103
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I enjoyed the Calgary Herald and Calgary Sun front pages today. The Herald had polls showing a PC win, the Sun polls for the WRA. I wonder which paper supports who


I also enjoy how they keep showing the Alberta Party in the polls even though they have less of a percentage than the margin of error.

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03-29-2012, 07:09 AM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thome_26 View Post
If the Liberals, NDs and AB Party ran some joint candidates in the cities they'd be able to win a few seats! But that also presumes that Raj Sherman has more in common with Brian Mason than he does with many of the Tories (in the pejorative sense, not the academic sense) which obviously isn't the case.
I would prefer they do this. I mean, why not? Why not combine the little Left vote that there is? I'm not sure how they would decide who to run, but just run one Liberal or NDP in a riding. Seems to make strategic sense.

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03-29-2012, 09:25 AM
  #105
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I would prefer they do this. I mean, why not? Why not combine the little Left vote that there is? I'm not sure how they would decide who to run, but just run one Liberal or NDP in a riding. Seems to make strategic sense.
I said why already.

Liberals aren't social-democrats (typically) The differences between Brian Mason and Raj Sherman are probably greater than those between Redford and Raj.

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03-29-2012, 09:04 PM
  #106
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Updated projections:


If the trend continues and the PC vote collapses, I wouldn't be surprised if the progressive votes moves from the PC to the Liberals. Wild stuff!

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03-30-2012, 11:55 AM
  #107
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I was predicting a wildrose upset win by a large margin if not a landslide for a while, for a second I thought Redford would be able to hold the tide, but I don't see that happening.

OFC, that could just be me being a stupid American, but I prefer to think I'm a voting trend genius...

EDIT: More Election resources....

http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/al...t-projections/

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03-30-2012, 12:00 PM
  #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Moose View Post
If the trend continues and the PC vote collapses, I wouldn't be surprised if the progressive votes moves from the PC to the Liberals. Wild stuff!
I honestly don't see any scenario where Redford Tories (I won't use the phrase centre-left just for you ) jump ship to anybody, much less the Liberals. I could actually see left leaning voters panic over the thought of a Wildrose win and move en masse to the PCs in an effort to block Smith.

If these kind of splits between the PCs and Wildrose hold up, we could be in for some interesting/exciting political drama.

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03-30-2012, 12:09 PM
  #109
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I am actually really interested in seeing the PC response. I think Redford's switch to demanding PC candidates repay all their committee pay is a sign that their poll numbers are similar to those numbers we're seeing and their in panic mode.

My personal bet is that she's gonna put the full court press on demonizing Smith and appealing to NDP/Liberal voters to help her block Smith. The other alternative is to shift in tone and try and reclaim more of the conservative/right wing/libertarian vote; but I just don't see that being a)in Redford's personality and b) possible to pull off without flip-flopping on basically her entire record the last six months.

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03-30-2012, 12:19 PM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thome_26 View Post
I am actually really interested in seeing the PC response. I think Redford's switch to demanding PC candidates repay all their committee pay is a sign that their poll numbers are similar to those numbers we're seeing and their in panic mode.

My personal bet is that she's gonna put the full court press on demonizing Smith and appealing to NDP/Liberal voters to help her block Smith. The other alternative is to shift in tone and try and reclaim more of the conservative/right wing/libertarian vote; but I just don't see that being a)in Redford's personality and b) possible to pull off without flip-flopping on basically her entire record the last six months.
Can Redford even appeal to NDP/Liberal voters? I would agree with Moose that red PC's would be more likely to follow Raj Sherman.

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03-30-2012, 12:22 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by DanielBryanRoleModel View Post
Can Redford even appeal to NDP/Liberal voters? I would agree with Moose that red PC's would be more likely to follow Raj Sherman.
Like Thome said earlier, I could see a scenario where a lot of Liberal/NDP voters shift to PC in order to block the WRA not because they actually like the PC's, but because they see the PC's as the lesser evil.

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03-30-2012, 01:33 PM
  #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thome_26 View Post
I am actually really interested in seeing the PC response. I think Redford's switch to demanding PC candidates repay all their committee pay is a sign that their poll numbers are similar to those numbers we're seeing and their in panic mode.

My personal bet is that she's gonna put the full court press on demonizing Smith and appealing to NDP/Liberal voters to help her block Smith. The other alternative is to shift in tone and try and reclaim more of the conservative/right wing/libertarian vote; but I just don't see that being a)in Redford's personality and b) possible to pull off without flip-flopping on basically her entire record the last six months.
And Smith will run a saintly campaign, right? So far it looks Redford's wants to steer the debate towards health, education and infrastructure spending, while Smith keeps harping about how Redford's doesn't like Alberta. The debate is going to be important, if Redford can manage to talk about real issues instead of being backed into a corner and constantly defend herself, the tide might turn.

And what's with Danielle again bringing up the Muni issue? This has been debated to death and the City of Edmonton made a definitive decision.

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03-30-2012, 01:58 PM
  #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Moose View Post
And Smith will run a saintly campaign, right?
Look, I'm talkinga but what I would guess their political strategy will be. It is what I'd be telling Redford to do if I was advising her. Smith will just as equally try and pain Redford as a big government non-conservative with a party of cronies and worse. I wasn't making a moral judgement; I'm talking political strategy. Can we not discuss something without a 'but your team said'

Quote:
So far it looks Redford's wants to steer the debate towards health, education and infrastructure spending, while Smith keeps harping about how Redford's doesn't like Alberta. The debate is going to be important, if Redford can manage to talk about real issues instead of being backed into a corner and constantly defend herself, the tide might turn.
This, like most campaigns, will end up being a choice of personalities; I don't think Redford is going to be able to change put all the 'politics' aside and talk policy this campaign because, frankly, I don't think that is what this campaign is about.

Quote:
And what's with Danielle again bringing up the Muni issue? This has been debated to death and the City of Edmonton made a definitive decision.
Totally retarded. I'm not sure what Edmontonians she's hoping to win over with this. My only thought could be that there have been concerns expressed to the north about the loss of the airport and it is for their intake. Because, I agree, this is a slam dunk in Edmonton and I can't see her being able to win any votes/seats going on about the airport.

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03-30-2012, 02:07 PM
  #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Moose View Post
And what's with Danielle again bringing up the Muni issue? This has been debated to death and the City of Edmonton made a definitive decision.
More on the topic, Smith's talking about this leads me to conclude she's out of touch with Edmonton. Now, usually when a leader becomes out of touch with anything/anywhere it is because the people that surround them. I'd like to know who Smith's 'point man' or, if you will, Edmonton lieutenant is.

It makes me wonder if they're not the same old crony business men who were spearheading the save the airport movement when the debate was on going.

(disclaimer: please excuse typos/formatting problems in my posts today... doing my best from my phone).

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03-30-2012, 02:37 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by thome_26 View Post
More on the topic, Smith's talking about this leads me to conclude she's out of touch with Edmonton. Now, usually when a leader becomes out of touch with anything/anywhere it is because the people that surround them. I'd like to know who Smith's 'point man' or, if you will, Edmonton lieutenant is.

It makes me wonder if they're not the same old crony business men who were spearheading the save the airport movement when the debate was on going.

(disclaimer: please excuse typos/formatting problems in my posts today... doing my best from my phone).
That's what I think too. As you said it might be a push from the corporate world that is using the airport, rather than pleasing those up north. In any case, does the provincial government even have any jurisdiction to stop closing the Muni?

PS I'm also from my phone. Swiftkey keyboard autocomplete rocks. At least that's what I think...

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03-30-2012, 02:43 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by thome_26 View Post
More on the topic, Smith's talking about this leads me to conclude she's out of touch with Edmonton. Now, usually when a leader becomes out of touch with anything/anywhere it is because the people that surround them. I'd like to know who Smith's 'point man' or, if you will, Edmonton lieutenant is.

It makes me wonder if they're not the same old crony business men who were spearheading the save the airport movement when the debate was on going.

(disclaimer: please excuse typos/formatting problems in my posts today... doing my best from my phone).
Another thing, I wonder what will happen to provincial funding to the Oilers arena. I am pretty sure that after the elections Redford would have found a way to make it happen. With Smith I am pretty sure is completely off the table. Her lottery idea has no use in the short term.

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03-30-2012, 03:03 PM
  #117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Moose View Post
That's what I think too. As you said it might be a push from the corporate world that is using the airport, rather than pleasing those up north. In any case, does the provincial government even have any jurisdiction to stop closing the Muni?
They do, municipal level has no constitutuional rights. The legislature does, ultimately, have the final say in the matter.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Moose View Post
Another thing, I wonder what will happen to provincial funding to the Oilers arena. I am pretty sure that after the elections Redford would have found a way to make it happen. With Smith I am pretty sure is completely off the table. Her lottery idea has no use in the short term.
Tough to say really. I don't think the Edmonton vs Calgary thing will enter into the equation there, because there is no way any government can/will give money to Calgary before they do for Edmonton for NHL arenas. Her Calgary base, I'm sure, will encourage her to treat Edmonton well because they will be expecting the same treatment in a few years time.

Quote:
PS I'm also from my phone. Swiftkey keyboard autocomplete rocks. At least that's what I think...
I will have to check it out!

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04-01-2012, 06:01 AM
  #118
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Just to let you know, CBC has released a vote compass http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albert...tecompass.html

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04-01-2012, 01:50 PM
  #119
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Just to let you know, CBC has released a vote compass http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albert...tecompass.html
I got in between NDP and Liberal, though I lean more toward the NDP.

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04-01-2012, 02:48 PM
  #120
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Just to let you know, CBC has released a vote compass http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albert...tecompass.html
I got more conservative than WRA. Good job vote compass

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04-01-2012, 04:34 PM
  #121
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I got more conservative than WRA. Good job vote compass
I got pretty close to WRA, but I think I'm going to hold my nose and vote PC. I like Smith, but I'm not sure that the WRA realizes they are running to govern a province with two thirds of its population in urban areas. And Raj Sherman is a one trick pony. I might have voted Alberta Party, but they aren't running a candidate in my riding.

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04-01-2012, 07:05 PM
  #122
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I got just a hair left of NDP on both scales

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04-01-2012, 10:41 PM
  #123
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I think the WRA could pull this off if they promised this weird money/coupon thing to every albertan.

April 1st Projection



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04-01-2012, 10:56 PM
  #124
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I hope that's an April Fools Joke...

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04-01-2012, 11:01 PM
  #125
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I hope that's an April Fools Joke...
I guess as soon as it became clear that WRA was going to do well, a few Tories went to the Liberals.

This splitting of the right could lead to some interesting gains for the Liberals and NDP too, should be a very interesting realigning election.

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